Latest news with #Burkhard
India Today
03-07-2025
- Business
- India Today
Has the oil market grown numb to conflict in the Middle East?
The recent conflict between Israel and Iran, followed by a tense ceasefire, has not led to any long-term change in global oil to a new analysis by S&P Global Commodity Insights, the global oil market remains focused on supply and demand factors, not geopolitical risks. While oil prices did spike briefly during the conflict, they quickly returned to their previous trend.S&P Global expects oil supply to be higher than demand by 1.2 million barrels per day in the second half of 2025. In 2026, the surplus is likely to be 800,000 barrels per day. This is a major shift from 2024, when demand slightly exceeded firm also said that global oil demand growth in 2025 is on track to be just 870,000 barrels per day. This would make it the weakest year for oil demand since 2001, except during major economic disruptions like the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 PRICES LIKELY TO STAY LOWAs per S&P Global's base case, Brent crude oil prices are expected to stay in the range of $50 to $60 per prices could remain slightly lower, between the upper $40s and upper $50s per barrel. The report says that the weak demand and increased supply are keeping prices under control despite geopolitical OIL OUTPUT SET TO DECLINEThe United States may see its first year-on-year fall in oil production in nearly a decade. S&P Global predicts total US crude oil and condensate production will drop by 600,000 barrels per day from mid-2025 to the end of Burkhard, Vice President and Global Head of Crude Oil Research at S&P Global, said that the price of oil and Wall Street remain the de facto regulators of US crude production."The onset of conflict in Iran briefly injected a fear premium into oil prices, and fresh uncertainties do remain. But the fundamentals are the fundamentals, and the oil price trend remains the same—downward," he EAST OUTPUT ON THE RISEEven during the conflict, oil exports from the Middle East continued to rise. OPEC+ countries have started increasing production as part of their plan to roll back earlier production mid-June, Saudi Arabia had boosted its crude and condensate exports by nearly 700,000 barrels per day, in line with its monthly Persian Gulf still holds over 4 million barrels per day of unused production capacity. This provides a strong supply cushion even if fresh disruptions COULD ADD MORE OIL IF SANCTIONS EASEThere is a possibility that Iran could raise its oil output if the current ceasefire holds and sanctions are eased. This could lead to even more oil entering the Stewart, Associate Director at S&P Global Commodity Insights, said, 'A year or more into the future, could a focal point in the market be how much Iran could increase production rather than attempting to close the Strait of Hormuz or damage oil infrastructure in other countries? Perhaps. In the meantime, expect more oil supply from the Middle East, regardless.'Despite rising tensions, oil markets are reacting more to hard numbers than news headlines. S&P Global's view is that current market fundamentals, weak demand, rising supply, and full storage are keeping oil prices in fear factor may cause brief movements in price, but long-term trends are still shaped by how much oil is being produced and how much is actually needed.- EndsTune InMust Watch advertisement
Time of India
02-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Global oil surplus seen at 1.2 million b/d in H2 2025; Brent forecast at $50-60/bbl: S&P Global
New Delhi: Global oil supply is expected to exceed demand by 1.2 million barrels per day (b/d) in the second half of 2025, while annual demand growth is projected to be the weakest since 2001—excluding crisis years—at 870,000 b/d, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights . The energy research firm also forecasts a surplus of 800,000 b/d for the full year 2026, driven by rising output from OPEC+ countries and continued weak demand. 'The underlying fundamentals of the global oil market remain profoundly unchanged. OPEC+ members are continuing with the accelerated unwinding of production cuts. There will be more oil supply coming from the Middle East in July. Meanwhile, global demand growth remains weak. In other words, there is plenty of oil available,' said Jim Burkhard, Vice President and Global Head of Crude Oil Research, S&P Global Commodity Insights. According to the report, base case projections for Dated Brent crude oil prices are in the $50–60 per barrel range for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices are expected to range between the upper $40s and upper $50s. S&P Global expects the United States to register its first year-on-year oil production decline in nearly a decade. Total U.S. crude oil and condensate output, including offshore production, is forecast to decline by 600,000 b/d from mid-2025 to end-2026. 'The price of oil and Wall Street remain the de facto regulators of U.S. crude production. The onset of conflict in Iran briefly injected a fear premium into oil prices, and fresh uncertainties do remain. But the fundamentals are the fundamentals, and the oil price trend remains the same—downward,' Burkhard added. OPEC+ countries have begun to visibly increase production in line with plans to accelerate the unwinding of earlier cuts. As of mid-June, Saudi Arabia's crude and condensate exports had increased by nearly 700,000 b/d, reaching levels aligned with its monthly target. The report notes that the Persian Gulf region still holds over 4 million b/d of spare production capacity. It also points to the uncertain possibility of additional Iranian supply coming to market if the ceasefire holds and sanctions are lifted or eased. 'A year or more into the future, could a focal point in the market be how much Iran could increase production rather than attempting to close the Strait of Hormuz or damage oil infrastructure in other countries? Perhaps. In the meantime, expect more oil supply from the Middle East, regardless,' said Ian Stewart, Associate Director at S&P Global Commodity Insights. Despite the recent conflict and ceasefire between Israel and Iran, S&P Global noted that the trajectory of global oil markets remains unchanged, with supply expected to continue outpacing demand and price trends pointing downward.
Time of India
11-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
US oil production to fall by 640,000 bpd by end-2026 amid surplus, demand slowdown: S&P Global
New Delhi: The United States is likely to see its oil production fall by 640,000 barrels per day (bpd) by the end of 2026 from mid-2025 levels, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights , which cited a weaker demand environment and an oversupplied global market as key drivers. S&P Global's latest Global Crude Oil Markets Short-term Outlook projects US oil production to average 13.34 million bpd in 2025, a growth of 131,000 bpd over the previous year, but 122,000 bpd lower than its earlier forecast. Production is expected to decline to 12.96 million bpd in 2026, marking the first year-on-year drop since 2020 and a fall of 378,000 bpd from previous projections. 'By the end of 2026, US oil production could be down 640,000 bpd from what it was in mid-2025,' the report stated. The outlook also highlighted that year-on-year global crude oil and condensate production is expected to grow by 2.2 million bpd in the second half of 2025. In comparison, demand is projected to increase by only 390,000 bpd over the same period. Total global liquids demand growth for 2025 is expected to average 770,000 bpd—its lowest annual increase since 2001, excluding the financial crisis of 2008–09 and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This widening gap between supply and demand has prompted S&P Global to revise its crude price forecast. Dated Brent is expected to trade between mid-$60s and $50 per barrel for a period, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) may drop to the low $60s or upper $40s. 'The oil price is currently defenseless. Seasonal demand in the northern hemisphere summer may obscure the impact for a bit, but eventually there will be too much crude oil in the market absent a change in production trends,' said Jim Burkhard, Vice President and Global Head of Crude Oil Research at S&P Global Commodity Insights. S&P Global noted that US shale production, due to its higher sensitivity to price signals, is more vulnerable than other sources of non-OPEC supply such as Canada, Guyana, and Brazil. 'In a lower price environment, US operators are likely to protect shareholder returns by reducing upstream spending. The result is a deceleration in growth to end the year, with the greatest impacts to production coming in 2026,' Burkhard said. Ian Stewart, Associate Director at S&P Global Commodity Insights, said, 'The United States has been the biggest source of supply growth in recent years and a factor in OPEC+ supply restraint. Signs of weak US crude supply growth and decline could begin to alter oil market psychology. However, much will still depend on the future course of OPEC+ production and oil demand.' The report follows the recent decision by OPEC+ members to accelerate the unwinding of production cuts. This, combined with output growth from other regions, is expected to add further pressure on prices. S&P Global added that a significant decline in US production could contribute to a potential price recovery in the future, depending on demand growth and production policy adjustments by OPEC+ and other major producers.
Yahoo
05-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
German submarine builder TKMS moves forward with spin-off
Thyssenkrupp is giving its marine division a new, yet familiar brand name ahead of its stock market debut. The company will in future consolidate all areas under the brand TKMS, the abbreviation for the Kiel submarine builder Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems, the company said on Wednesday. An investment by the federal government is "certainly an option," said TKMS chief executive Oliver Burkhard. "Desirable from our perspective, but not necessary." Burkhard expects that the supervisory board will deal with the plans by the end of June. The decision will then be made at an extraordinary general meeting, possibly in the summer, he said. According to Burkhard, a stock market listing could occur in the autumn. The aim is to access capital more easily through a spin-off. "However, this is not a miraculous multiplication of money." Parent company retains majority Thyssenkrupp board member Volkmar Dinstuhl described it as a logical step. The new holding company, in which shareholders will hold a 49% stake as part of the spin-off, is to be admitted to trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The parent company will retain the majority, he said. "TKMS is already a true success story," said Dinstuhl. Independence offers a good starting position for a possible national or European consolidation of the industry. "That's why we are also in talks with the federal government." In the past, there had already been discussions with the previous government and the development bank KfW about an investment by the federal government. On the election campaign trail, now Chancellor Friedrich Merz had promised the shipyard support for independence during a visit in January. Full order books TKMS says it is the world market leader for non-nuclear powered submarines and its order books are full until the early 2040s. In December, the Bundestag's budget committee approved the construction of four more 212CD class submarines for the German Navy. This means 10 such submarines have been commissioned - six for Germany and four for Norway. Burkhard said he expects Norway to also exercise the option for two more submarines. According to TKMS, the order book amounts to around €18 billion ($20.5 billion). The shipyard is also bidding for the construction of submarines for Canada. In addition to its main shipyard in Kiel, the defence company also has a shipyard in Wismar in the north-eastern state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, which, according to Burkhard, is to be upgraded for €220 million and is expected to provide about 1,500 jobs by 2029. In total, there are now reportedly 8,500 jobs there. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
India Gazette
14-05-2025
- Business
- India Gazette
US may reduce oil production because of sluggish demand and falling crude prices: S&P
New Delhi [India], May 14 (ANI): United States may reduce its oil production which could lead to an annual decline in output in 2026 due to the sluggish demand and falling crude prices, according to a new analysis by S&P Global Commodity Insights. The report further added that slowing global oil demand, extreme uncertainty about the future of US trade and a coming supply surplus are expected to hobble US oil production growth. The S&P Global Commodity Insights Global Crude Oil Markets Short-term Outlook adds that global oil (total liquids) demand growth to average 750,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2025, a downward revision of 500,000 b/d from the prior outlook. 'Although the magnitude of a potential economic and oil demand downturn is as uncertain as the future course of U.S. tariffs, the impact will be negative. Initial warning signs of a potential downturn are only starting to come into view. The level of severity is now the big question,' as per Jim Burkhard, Vice President and Global Head of Crude Oil Research, S&P Global Commodity Insights. The new demand outlook represents a significant shift in momentum following strong oil demand growth in the first quarter of the year when demand grew by an estimated 1.75 million b/d year-over-year. In contrast, demand growth for the remaining quarters of year is now expected to average 420,000 b/d, the report added. The report adds that the total U.S production for 2025 is expected to average 13.46 million b/d (gain of 252,000 b/d year-over-year) before falling back to 13.33 million b/d for 2026--a 130,000 b/d decline. 'U.S. oil production growth has been a dominant feature in the oil market since 2022. A price-driven decline in U.S. production would be a pivot point for the oil market--and set conditions for a potential price recovery. But much will depend on the severity of an economic slowdown and the impact on demand growth beyond 2025,' Burkhard added. Ian Stewart, Associate Director, S&P Global Commodity Insights said that dizzying changes to U.S. tariffs--both real and proposed--are taking their toll on market sentiment. 'Our current outlook assumes that there will ultimately be some movement away from trade barriers to China as well as signs of progress in U.S. trade talks with Europe, Japan and other major trading partners. That means that the risk for additional downside is very real. Any periods of price strength are likely to be fragile,' Stewart added. (ANI)
