Indonesian rupiah, Thai baht lead Asia forex lower as US tariff deadline looms
Thailand expects to conclude trade talks with the United States, its largest export market, before the deadline and avoid tariffs as high as 36 per cent, Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira said, riding the momentum from Trump's deal with Europe over the weekend.
The Thai baht weakened as much as 0.5 per cent to 32.51 per dollar, its biggest intraday decline since July 9, while Indonesia's rupiah fell 0.4 per cent to a one-month low of 16,400.
Taiwan's dollar dropped more than 0.4 per cent to its lowest point since July 1, and currencies across the region declined, with investors pondering over the implications for growth and inflation on the global economy from the tariffs.
Trump's trade deal with Europe initially lifted market sentiment, but investors quickly realised the terms largely favoured the United States. This reinforced dollar strength, adding pressure on regional currencies.
Officials in Seoul are scrambling in an all-out push to clinch a trade deal ahead of the August 1 deadline to remove or reduce tariffs threatened by Trump against the country's key industrial exports to the United States.
The urgency underscores a broader regional race to secure favourable terms after Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines and Japan already clinched trade agreements with Washington, creating a precedent for other Asian economies.
Meanwhile, US and Chinese economic leaders held more than five hours of talks in Stockholm on Monday, working to resolve disputes fuelling the economic conflict between the world's two largest economies and extend their current truce by three months.
Regional equities fell alongside currencies, with Taiwan's benchmark index slipping more than 1 per cent to a one-week low. Singapore and the Philippine markets dropped more than 0.5 per cent each, while Indonesian and South Korean shares bucked the trend, posting modest gains.
Central bank meetings loom large for the remainder of the week, with the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan and the Monetary Authority of Singapore set to announce policy decisions this week.
"With no policy changes expected from the BOJ, Fed, or MAS this week, EM Asian currencies are unlikely to see significant movement from these central bank meetings," said Chandresh Jain, rates strategist at BNP Paribas.
"However, if MAS surprises by cutting the SGD NEER slope, it could initially drive USDSGD (the US Dollar-Singapore Dollar pair) higher."
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