Daily Briefing: India eyes tariff edge over China

Indian Express

3 days ago

Good morning,
An over 24-hour vote-a-rama, a fragile 50-50 split, and one tie-breaking vote. The passage of Donald Trump's 'One Big Beautiful Bill' through the US Senate was nothing short of a thriller (though a lengthy one). It wasn't clear until the end of the marathon debate whether the Bill would survive before US Vice President J D Vance cast the tie-breaking vote, passing the Republicans' flagship bill 51-50. The Bill proposes massive tax cuts and reductions in social safety net programmes, including food and health. Essentially, it benefits the top 1 per cent of Americans. It also increases government expenditure on military and immigration enforcement, a core aspect of the Trump era, adding $3.3 trillion to the national debt. The Bill has divided Trump's supporters, including his once-trusted ally, billionaire Elon Musk, who have rallied for reduced government spending. The Bill now faces a challenge in the US House of Representatives, where several Republicans have already expressed opposition to some of its provisions.
On that note, let's get to today's edition.
🚨 Big Story
We are now officially halfway through 2025, with July approaching quickly. This also means that we are just days away from the July 9 deadline, when a pause on Trump's sweeping reciprocal tariffs is set to end. There is a growing view that the baseline tariff, a 10 per cent duty on all countries, is here to stay. The Indian negotiators would then essentially walk away with a tariff between 10 and 26 per cent (the initial reciprocal tariff imposed by the Trump administration in April). The endgame would be to ensure that India has at least a 20 per cent differential with US tariffs on China.
Why? This gives Indian traders an advantage over Chinese competitors and mitigates some of India's structural downsides, including infrastructural bottlenecks, logistics woes, and high interest costs.
Challenges? After the last round of US-China talks, the Trump administration announced a 55 per cent tariff on Chinese imports. However, with talks ongoing, that figure could still decrease. A temporary truce in May saw the US agree to a much lower 30 per cent tariff, down from the initially proposed 145 per cent.
Meanwhile, politically sensitive areas like agriculture and dairy continue to complicate the Indo-US trade dialogue. It remains to be seen whether India will clinch an interim deal before the July 9 deadline.
For more on the US tariffs, tune in to today's '3 Things' podcast episode.
⚡Express Investigation
On the money trail: Reporter Ritu Sarin, in a series of investigative reports, exposed how digital arrest fraudsters operate (Part 1) and where financial institutions may have dropped the ball in preventing these scams (Part 2).
In Part 3, today, she examines the near-impossible process of recovering stolen money for the victims. These scams unfold over at least a couple of days, but the money, splintered into different mule accounts, usually vanishes in a matter of minutes, making it hard to track. Read how investigators trace the money and what complicates these efforts.
Sarin also has a handy 'dos and don'ts' guide to keep you from falling victim to digital arrest scams.
📰 From the Front Page
Poaching spectre: A lab analysis found that bone samples seized from poachers in Madhya Pradesh account for three tigers and one leopard. According to officials, these tigers 'almost certainly' originated from Ranthambore, triggering alarm bells.
No fake news: The Karnataka Mis-Information and Fake News (Prohibition) Bill, 2025, is the first state legislation of its kind, designed to address the increasing threat of fake news. However, it worryingly empowers a panel of lawmakers to identify and label content on social media as 'fake news', which includes 'anti-feminism' and 'disrespect of Sanatan symbols'. The Bill raises several questions on free speech and state overreach.
📌 Must Read
Language politics: The Maharashtra government resolutions (GRs) on the three-language policy in the state have stirred the political circles. It first made Hindi mandatory as the third language in primary classes, and then reversed the decision, making it optional. The Thackeray cousins — Shiv Sena (UBT)'s Uddhav and MNS's Raj Thackeray — launched a staunch protest against the Devendra Fadnavis-led government for 'imposing' Hindi in the state. Finally, the government revoked both the GRs. My colleague, Shubhangi Khapre, writes that the BJP may have scored an own goal with this move.
Re-incarnation? The institution of the Dalai Lama goes back to 1939. He is considered the spiritual and political head of the Tibetans, now living in exile. In 2011, the 14th Dalai Lama, Tenzin Gyatso, announced that when he turns 90, he will re-evaluate whether the 'institution of the Dalai Lama should continue or not'. As he turns 90 on July 6, this particular birthday has assumed great significance. Know more about the Dalai Lama, the question of his succession, and the Chinese shadow over all this.
Nuts and bolts diplomacy: The BRICS has become weaker than before, due to its internal divisions, particularly between India and China. However, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi sets out to Brazil for the annual summit, including tours to other nations, columnist C Raja Mohan writes that this is an opportunity for India to look beyond ideological ambitions, focusing on securing its interests in a turbulent world.
⏳ And Finally…
The second England vs India Test kicks off today in Birmingham. As the suspense continues over the Playing XI, Sandeep Dwivedi, reporting from the ground, has some hints: all-rounder Washington Sundar will likely replace the new No.3 Sai Sudharshan, but bat late down the order. India may also pin its hopes on Nitish Reddy, another all-rounder, and Akash Deep, who would replace Jasprit Bumrah as the fast bowler. Read more.
That's all for today, folks!
Until tomorrow,
Sonal Gupta
Sonal Gupta is a senior sub-editor on the news desk. She writes feature stories and explainers on a wide range of topics from art and culture to international affairs. She also curates the Morning Expresso, a daily briefing of top stories of the day, which won gold in the 'best newsletter' category at the WAN-IFRA South Asian Digital Media Awards 2023. She also edits our newly-launched pop culture section, Fresh Take.
... Read More