Race-by-race tips and preview for Tamworth on Friday
RACE 1
8. Capsity is the only two-year-old in the field, and she makes her debut for the Brett Cavanough stable. A daughter of prolific sprint sire Capitalist, she starts after two progressive 1000m trials, and is bred to thrive on rain-affected ground. 3. Tough Guy is an ex-Victorian three-year-old having his first start for the new home stable, with a string of gear changes in play, and likely to jump a short-priced favourite. Was never far away in three handy efforts down south before spelling, and been tuned up for a strong NSW debut with a solid soft-track trial at Scone. 1. Jagerschnitzel is another one having his first outing for a new Scone yard since transferring from Victoria. Form this prep is very average, but the blinkers come off. Gap to the rest.
How to play it: Capsity to win.
RACE 2
5. Shamister is an underrated and very fit Dubbo five-year-old that emerges as the one to beat in an average field despite having a poor winning strike rate. Has beaten all but the winner in two of his past three from off the speed, and can settle a bit closer from a softer draw this time, and finish over them. 2. Imezaaki is trained on the course, and right in the hunt third up over the longer trip, with a leading jockey taking over. 7. Libby is still searching for that breakthrough win deep into the prep, but has run home into the placings in her past three, and looking for this longer journey now. 3. Your Temptation, back in grade over further, and 6. Bill Peyto, deep into the campaign, can both add value into exotic plays.
How to play it: Shamister to win.
RACE 3
7. Yanabah is a progressive and locally trained four-year-old primed to break through fifth up. Has hit the line hard to miss out narrowly in his past two from near the speed and much further back, and has placed five times from nine career runs, often by small margins. Gets enough speed on to settle back and round them up late. 9. Halle Bee is another local, and logical threat fourth up with the leading jockey booked to ride. Has a near 50 per cent place rate from 19 starts. 3. Hardhead is over the odds deep into the prep from a soft draw, while 2. Hanoverian is a market watch resuming for only his second start off two trials.
How to play it: Yanabah to win.
RACE 4
2. Louisbugh can start the redemption trail here fourth up coming back 100m in trip three weeks between runs. Has been rolled in his last couple as a short-priced favourite on heavy ground, but winkers come off and drawn further out where he settles with more room in the run home are keys to an overdue win. 1. Justice Warrior is a real toiler that has beaten all but the winner in his past two at the provincials, boxing on OK after leading at Wyong last start. This draw and a drop in distance suit. Watch the betting on 4. Snap Decision, a three-year-old son of Proisir in the local Cody Morgan yard, that makes his debut from the inside draw behind an easy trial. Big gap to the remainder headed by 5. Xerxes, which can run into the minor money resuming off a quiet trial.
How to play it: Louisburgh to win.
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Form analyst Shayne O'Cass provides his best bets, value selection and race-by-race analysis at Tamworth on Friday. The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. TAMWORTH TIPS BEST BET Has multiple provincial placings and has won twice over the track and trip. Hasn't fired as yet but trialling like a brand new horse. VALUE Race 4 No. 6: ARTIE'S MAGIC Local who turned in a most encouraging debut here last month BEST LONGSHOT Race 3 No. 13: PRIDE OF NATIONS Could be a sharp improver off a blunt debut. QUADDIE Race 5: 3, 4, 11, 13 Race 6: 3, 4, 18 Race 7: 1, 2, 5 Race 8: 2 JOCKEY TO FOLLOW KODY NESTOR could give the TAB Jockeys Challenge a shake. INSIDE MAIL - TAMWORTH RACE 1: Dutton Electrical Mdn Plate 1000m SHE CAN DANCE (7) was sold for $100,000 to Tracey Bartley at the Inglis Premier Yearling Sale. Born and raised at Newhaven Park. This stunning black coloured filly is by Lonhro and is a full-sister to Group 2 winner Heatherly. Form reads poorly but she is first-up off a very nice Wyong trial. CAPSITY (8) is a two-year-old taking on older horses, on debut as well, but has shown enough in her trials to suggest at least some degree of talent. Bet: She Can Dance to win â– â– â– â– â– LIBBY (7) has placed at five of her nine starts. Ridge Wilson has given the daughter of Reliable Man the beautiful lead-in to 2100m. IMEZAAKI (2) has been with Craig Clegg here at Tamworth the last two of his 19 starts. So far as his resume is concerned, the son of Ocean Park is a Hawkesbury winner and was third in the Group 3 Grand Prix no less. Gives the impression he wants 2100m now. SHAMISTER (5) was beaten an inch over 2200m at Dubbo last Sunday. Bet: Libby to win, box trifecta 2, 5, 6, 7 â– â– â– â– â– PRIDE OF NATIONS (13) is trained here by Sue Grills. The filly was $11 to $26 on debut here on June 16 and only beat one home. Only a hunch but she is surely better than that. Hunch number two is; the Kermadac progeny are mostly swimmers so maybe this filly will go better on the Heavy. YANABAH (7) has run nine times for four seconds and a third and a few of those seconds were by very slender margins. HALLE BEE (9), likewise, is consistent. â– â– â– â– â– ARTIE'S MAGIC (6) is another of the Sue Grills brigade. This one is by Flying Artie (naturally) from a Pins mare out of a pretty good New Zealand family of milers, 2000m and even the odd two-miler present. Artie's Magic was $6 to $8.50 on debut here on June 16 and held his ground admirably when midfield. Won't be a maiden for long. LOUISBURGH (2) and JUSTICE WARRIOR (1) have been nominated for other races next week closer to their homes. If they're out, SNAP DECISION (4) goes in. Bet: Artie's Magic to win â– â– â– â– â– BETTER TOMORROW (3) has drawn wide and doesn't have the best record on wet tracks so we could see this Lonhro gelding saved for Saturday's Mungindi Cup. In the event he is absent, all roads lead back to the local ARRABBIATA (11) who, quite literally, hasn't put in a bad one for Melissa O'Gorman and regular jockey Mikayla Weir. Not saying she can't win on Heavy but any improvement would be of great benefit. THE GREAT ARMADA (4) has been running well in some very strong races lately. Bet: The Great Armada each-way â– â– â– â– â– CRESTA RUN (4) is a daughter of Your Song who won his Group 1 by panels on a Heavy track. This filly has finished runner-up at her only two starts on a Soft so the track perhaps is less of a worry than it might be. Same goes for the wide draw, there will be plenty of scratchings. ATOKA (18) is one of the best roughies on the day in my opinion, but only if it is Heavy. TAKEOVER LAD (3) from the astute Wayne Brown camp has all the form and consistent nature to play a major role Bet: Cresta Run to win, Atoka each-way â– â– â– â– â– RACE 7: L & K Electrical & Air Conditioning (Bm58) 1200m CHEAP GAS (5), the cleverly-named son of Santos, is trained at Mudgee by Derek Piper who has managed to secure Aaron Bullock for the ride here. He's also managed to find himself on the receiving end of a desirable barrier and on top of all that, Cheap Gas was a monumentally impressive winner at his only Heavy run. HOLLYWOOD GOLD (1) is an emergency for Saturday's Highway which illustrates how well this talented son of Casino Prince is going at the moment. Bet: Cheap Gas to win â– â– â– â– â– ZAKOR (2) has been a good horse dating back to when he broke his maiden status at this track over this same 1000m trip. He has gone on to win three more together with 10 placings, some of them in provincial company. Slow is better than heavy for him seemingly. OUR BOY OLLIE (1), the local with Bullock on, is such a genuine and consistent racehorse. Handles the Heavy without being a muddie. WHO GOES THERE (3) is unbeaten in all three starts at this (home) track and trip. Bet: Zakor to win TAMWORTH BEST BET Race 8 No. 2: Zakor Has multiple provincial placings and has won twice over the track and trip. NEXT BEST Race 1 No. 7: She Can Dance Hasn't fired as yet but trialling like a 'brand new horse' VALUE Race 4 No. 6: Artie's Magic Local who turned in a most encouraging debut here last month BEST LONGSHOT Race 3 No. 13: Pride Of Nations Could be a sharp improver off a blunt debut. QUADDIE Race 5: 3,4,11,13 Race 6: 3,4,18 Race 7: 1,2,5 Race 8: 2
