How Trump's strike on Iran might affect China's calculus on Taiwan

Business Standard

3 days ago

President Trump's decision to attack Iran's nuclear facilities, after earlier denouncing US embroilment in foreign wars, introduces another complication for China's leaders trying to fathom how he might handle conflict over Taiwan.
Chinese officials and experts were already trying to game out Trump's approach to Taiwan, the island democracy that Beijing claims as its territory. They will now likely be assessing the Iran strikes for new insights into Trump, who had opposed military action months earlier while he pursued diplomacy, and then rained missiles and bombs on three key nuclear sites on Sunday.
For China, Trump is a bit of a wild card in scenarios of how the United States would respond to Beijing's efforts to bring Taiwan to heel, including any attempt to take the island by force. The United States has long helped fend off China's military pressure and deter a possible attack by selling Taiwan weapons and holding out the option that it could send forces if war erupts.
Some Chinese analysts have questioned whether, with the right cajoling or warnings, Trump may be persuaded to ease America's support of Taiwan. After all, in his trade war with China, Trump veered from imposing sky-high tariffs to agreeing to a provisional truce, basically backing down after China choked off shipments of critical minerals. The Iran strikes further illustrated Trump's mercurial style.
'After the Iran strikes, I suspect that Chinese leaders will now be more nervous about testing President Trump's resolve' on Taiwan, said Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. 'Caution is warranted, both because Trump appears more willing to use force than many expected, but also because his actions seem less predictable.'
Before the attack, China seemed to have stepped up efforts to sound out Trump's thinking on Taiwan.
During a call with Trump earlier this month, Xi stressed the importance of Taiwan. He suggested that he and Trump should be like co-captains steering the 'great ship of China-US relations,' in what looked like an attempt to drive a wedge between Trump and American officials who take a hard line against Beijing.
Beijing calls Taiwan's president, Lai Ching-te, a separatist, and this week fiercely denounced him for a recent speech in which he laid out his case that Taiwan is an 'independent country.' Xi has accused Lai's government of courting 'confrontation and even conflict.' Taiwan's government, and many on both sides of politics in Washington, say that it is China's menacing behavior that is stoking tensions.
Some Chinese researchers who recently met American counterparts seemed to be trying to assess Trump's red lines. 'The Chinese experts I've met with have been asking pointed questions about what Trump would do if Beijing took action against Taiwan,' Cooper said.
China's probing has long played out in action. It has stepped up military activity and coast guard operations around Taiwan in recent years, seeking to test how Taiwan and the United States and its allies respond, and also trying to wear down the Taiwanese military.
That pressure is unlikely to let up. China sends military aircraft near Taiwan nearly every day, sometimes in the dozens. In May, Beijing deployed as many as 70 warships off the eastern coast of China, a senior Taiwanese security official told reporters this month. For the first time, China sent two aircraft carriers and supporting naval ships into the Pacific this month, beyond what is known as the first island chain, which includes the Japanese archipelago and Taiwan, drawing protests from Tokyo.
China wants to be ready for the spectrum of possibilities for Taiwan under Trump, including 'a rapid escalation in tensions or even things slipping out of control,' said Xin Qiang, the director of the Center for Taiwan Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai.
'The issues around Iran and Taiwan are very different, and the range of factors that shape US decision-making are also very different,' Professor Xin said. But he saw a broad lesson in Trump's attack on Iran: 'This implies that when President Trump deems it necessary, he will choose armed force to advance American foreign policy.'
Trump's administration has signaled support for Taiwan, while also urging it to rapidly increase military spending. In a speech in Singapore, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned that China's military threat 'could be imminent.' But Hegseth also made clear that Trump called the shots.
That's what worries some in Washington and Taipei: that Beijing could persuade Trump to dilute, in actions or just words, US support for Taiwan, which deepened in Trump's first term and then under President Biden.
'The administration as a whole seems to be predominantly pursuing continuity' in security support for Taiwan, said Bonnie S. Glaser, an expert on Taiwan and China at the German Marshall Fund of the United States in Washington. 'It's the president himself that introduces the uncertainty and unpredictability.'
Some experts in Taiwan praised Trump's strike on Iran as an indirect message to Beijing. 'It's hitting the little brother, Iran, to warn the big brothers, Russia and China,' said Ou Si-fu, a researcher at the government-funded Institute for National Defense and Security Research.
But when it comes to Taiwan, Trump, like most recent US presidents, has been deliberately vague about whether the United States would defend the island if China attacked, a position designed to deter Beijing while restraining Taiwan.
He has also questioned how effective US intervention could be against China's forces, which are much closer to Taiwan. In his first term, Trump likened Taiwan to the tip of a Sharpie marker and China to the bulky Resolute Desk in the White House, according to John R. Bolton, Trump's former national security adviser.
And while Trump has criticized China's economic practices and its handling of Covid, he has also declared his admiration for Xi, saying after their latest call that the leaders had invited each other and their spouses to visit.
Should the leaders meet, even seemingly minor concessions in how Trump's talks about Taiwan could be a win for Beijing, given the island's reliance on assurances from Washington, said Amanda Hsiao, the China director for the Eurasia Group, a firm that advises investors.
Still, China's leaders are also steeled for the risk of a crisis over Taiwan. And they are confident that their military is much more formidable than the weakened Iranian forces that Israeli and US forces overcame, Stacie Pettyjohn, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, told an online briefing this week. China has about 3,500 missiles, as well as a growing nuclear arsenal and a fast-expanding navy.
'The US couldn't just swoop in there with an exquisite capability and launch a limited number of strikes and win,' Ms. Pettyjohn said of a possible conflict over Taiwan. 'That is something that would be very clear to Beijing.'
By Chris Buckley