Latest news with #China-US
RTHK
14 hours ago
- Business
- RTHK
US stocks end at records
US stocks end at records The records reflect improved sentiment, with the Iran-Israel ceasefire adding to positive movement on trade compared with the spring. Photo: Reuters Wall Street stocks finished at fresh records on Friday as China-US trade progress restored the market to its heights prior to a spring swoon brought by President Donald Trump's tariffs. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished at all-time highs following a roller-coaster session that included a stint in negative territory after Trump announced he was breaking off trade talks with Canada, rupturing a series of largely positive headlines on trade. The broad-based S&P 500 finished up 0.5 percent at 6,173, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index also climbed 0.5 percent to 20,273. Both represent fresh closing records. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped one percent to 43,819. Earlier, European stock markets also rose, with the Paris CAC 40 leading the way, boosted by a rise in luxury stocks. The records reflect improved sentiment, with the Iran-Israel ceasefire adding to positive movement on trade compared with the spring. "There is hope in the market, there may be some over-optimism around some things," said Jason Schenker of Prestige Economics. "But there was a lot of optimism." Tom Cahill, chief investment officer at Ventura Wealth Management said other trade news developments in recent days had been positive, including Beijing and Washington's confirmation on finalising a framework to move forward on trade. "The news has been incrementally more positive since April on the trade front," Cahill said. The S&P 500 last hit a record in February, but began to come under pressure thereafter as Trump began to sharpen his rhetoric on trade. This culminated with Trump's April 2 "Liberation Day" vow to implement steep new levies on trading partners. Trump has since suspended the most onerous elements of his trade overhaul, while still implementing the biggest US tariffs imposed in decades. (AFP)
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Business Standard
2 days ago
- Politics
- Business Standard
How Trump's strike on Iran might affect China's calculus on Taiwan
President Trump's decision to attack Iran's nuclear facilities, after earlier denouncing US embroilment in foreign wars, introduces another complication for China's leaders trying to fathom how he might handle conflict over Taiwan. Chinese officials and experts were already trying to game out Trump's approach to Taiwan, the island democracy that Beijing claims as its territory. They will now likely be assessing the Iran strikes for new insights into Trump, who had opposed military action months earlier while he pursued diplomacy, and then rained missiles and bombs on three key nuclear sites on Sunday. For China, Trump is a bit of a wild card in scenarios of how the United States would respond to Beijing's efforts to bring Taiwan to heel, including any attempt to take the island by force. The United States has long helped fend off China's military pressure and deter a possible attack by selling Taiwan weapons and holding out the option that it could send forces if war erupts. Some Chinese analysts have questioned whether, with the right cajoling or warnings, Trump may be persuaded to ease America's support of Taiwan. After all, in his trade war with China, Trump veered from imposing sky-high tariffs to agreeing to a provisional truce, basically backing down after China choked off shipments of critical minerals. The Iran strikes further illustrated Trump's mercurial style. 'After the Iran strikes, I suspect that Chinese leaders will now be more nervous about testing President Trump's resolve' on Taiwan, said Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. 'Caution is warranted, both because Trump appears more willing to use force than many expected, but also because his actions seem less predictable.' Before the attack, China seemed to have stepped up efforts to sound out Trump's thinking on Taiwan. During a call with Trump earlier this month, Xi stressed the importance of Taiwan. He suggested that he and Trump should be like co-captains steering the 'great ship of China-US relations,' in what looked like an attempt to drive a wedge between Trump and American officials who take a hard line against Beijing. Beijing calls Taiwan's president, Lai Ching-te, a separatist, and this week fiercely denounced him for a recent speech in which he laid out his case that Taiwan is an 'independent country.' Xi has accused Lai's government of courting 'confrontation and even conflict.' Taiwan's government, and many on both sides of politics in Washington, say that it is China's menacing behavior that is stoking tensions. Some Chinese researchers who recently met American counterparts seemed to be trying to assess Trump's red lines. 'The Chinese experts I've met with have been asking pointed questions about what Trump would do if Beijing took action against Taiwan,' Cooper said. China's probing has long played out in action. It has stepped up military activity and coast guard operations around Taiwan in recent years, seeking to test how Taiwan and the United States and its allies respond, and also trying to wear down the Taiwanese military. That pressure is unlikely to let up. China sends military aircraft near Taiwan nearly every day, sometimes in the dozens. In May, Beijing deployed as many as 70 warships off the eastern coast of China, a senior Taiwanese security official told reporters this month. For the first time, China sent two aircraft carriers and supporting naval ships into the Pacific this month, beyond what is known as the first island chain, which includes the Japanese archipelago and Taiwan, drawing protests from Tokyo. China wants to be ready for the spectrum of possibilities for Taiwan under Trump, including 'a rapid escalation in tensions or even things slipping out of control,' said Xin Qiang, the director of the Center for Taiwan Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai. 'The issues around Iran and Taiwan are very different, and the range of factors that shape US decision-making are also very different,' Professor Xin said. But he saw a broad lesson in Trump's attack on Iran: 'This implies that when President Trump deems it necessary, he will choose armed force to advance American foreign policy.' Trump's administration has signaled support for Taiwan, while also urging it to rapidly increase military spending. In a speech in Singapore, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned that China's military threat 'could be imminent.' But Hegseth also made clear that Trump called the shots. That's what worries some in Washington and Taipei: that Beijing could persuade Trump to dilute, in actions or just words, US support for Taiwan, which deepened in Trump's first term and then under President Biden. 'The administration as a whole seems to be predominantly pursuing continuity' in security support for Taiwan, said Bonnie S. Glaser, an expert on Taiwan and China at the German Marshall Fund of the United States in Washington. 'It's the president himself that introduces the uncertainty and unpredictability.' Some experts in Taiwan praised Trump's strike on Iran as an indirect message to Beijing. 'It's hitting the little brother, Iran, to warn the big brothers, Russia and China,' said Ou Si-fu, a researcher at the government-funded Institute for National Defense and Security Research. But when it comes to Taiwan, Trump, like most recent US presidents, has been deliberately vague about whether the United States would defend the island if China attacked, a position designed to deter Beijing while restraining Taiwan. He has also questioned how effective US intervention could be against China's forces, which are much closer to Taiwan. In his first term, Trump likened Taiwan to the tip of a Sharpie marker and China to the bulky Resolute Desk in the White House, according to John R. Bolton, Trump's former national security adviser. And while Trump has criticized China's economic practices and its handling of Covid, he has also declared his admiration for Xi, saying after their latest call that the leaders had invited each other and their spouses to visit. Should the leaders meet, even seemingly minor concessions in how Trump's talks about Taiwan could be a win for Beijing, given the island's reliance on assurances from Washington, said Amanda Hsiao, the China director for the Eurasia Group, a firm that advises investors. Still, China's leaders are also steeled for the risk of a crisis over Taiwan. And they are confident that their military is much more formidable than the weakened Iranian forces that Israeli and US forces overcame, Stacie Pettyjohn, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, told an online briefing this week. China has about 3,500 missiles, as well as a growing nuclear arsenal and a fast-expanding navy. 'The US couldn't just swoop in there with an exquisite capability and launch a limited number of strikes and win,' Ms. Pettyjohn said of a possible conflict over Taiwan. 'That is something that would be very clear to Beijing.' By Chris Buckley
The Star
6 days ago
- Business
- The Star
China urges US to ‘look at the whole picture' on tariffs to see true trade ties
The envoys of the world's two leading powers painted starkly different pictures of US-China ties, each offering a competing assessment of the state of their economic relations – as a recently agreed framework to ease trade tensions hung in limbo. Speaking at the US-China Business Council in Washington on Wednesday, Chinese ambassador Xie Feng called the trade relationship 'generally balanced' and tariffs on Chinese imports 'still unreasonably high', warning that the US goods deficit would not shrink while export controls, visa denials, and barriers to Chinese firms persist. 'We are willing to buy more from America,' Xie said, adding that 'unfortunately' the US had imposed 'strict restrictions on the exports of its most competitive products, such as semiconductors, and shut the door on Chinese enterprises, buyers, tourists and students who want to invest and spend in the US'. 'If one is reluctant to sell others what they want, how can it ever get its deficit reduced by exporting only products like soybeans and beef?' Since 2022, the US has steadily tightened restrictions on China's access to American technology over concerns it could fuel military advancements. These curbs intensified under US President Donald Trump's second term. However, earlier this month, the US agreed to ease some restrictions and allow Chinese students unhindered access to American universities in exchange for increased exports of critical minerals from China. Talks between the two sides in London produced a framework to implement the trade consensus reached in May in Geneva regarding Trump's new tariffs on Chinese imports – now reduced from 125 per cent to 55 per cent. Xie said the current US tariffs on China were 'still unreasonably high, will severely constrain and undercut bilateral trade and should be removed completely'. He added that it was 'unrealistic to try to block the flow of capital, technology and talents in a globalised world, if any country builds up barriers, these resources will naturally flow elsewhere'. Since June last year, the China-US trade has dropped by 8 per cent, while China's trade with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and EU countries grew by 9 per cent and 3 per cent, respectively compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, David Perdue, America's newly posted ambassador to Beijing, said that trade should be a means by which sovereign nations provide benefits to their citizens, 'not an ideological goal to be pursued in favour of transforming the world'. He added that Trump's vision was to have a trading relationship with China based on reciprocity, fairness and respect, 'one of which the United States puts the American people first, just as China does for its own people'. 'Our mission in China is to do everything we can to make that vision happen and to make America safer, stronger and more prosperous,' Perdue emphasised, blaming unfettered globalisation for making US business 'overly dependent' on China for components, inputs, intermediate goods and even entire supply chains. 'Our economy cannot be so dependent on foreign supply chains that can be severed at any moment,' he said. Addressing US businesses' concerns about losing the Chinese market due to strained bilateral relations, Perdue said that the administration understands the 'risk of change' and 'we will be there to support you and protect you from unfair practices'. However, Xie urged the US to 'look at the whole picture' to see that 'the benefits our two countries have taken from bilateral trade are generally balanced'. 'Any selective reading of the statistics would be misleading,' he added. Xie said that focusing only on goods trade overlooked the US surplus in services, American firms' strong revenues in China, the heavy environmental and resource costs China has borne, and the fact that the 'Chinese people have chosen to spend much of the trade gains buying a large amount of US Treasury bonds'. After Japan and Britain, China is the third-largest holder of US Treasuries – government debt securities used to finance federal spending. In December last year, China's holdings fell to US$759 billion, the lowest level since February 2009, when they stood at US$744.2 billion. By March, China had slightly reduced its holdings again, to US$765.4 billion. The senior officials' remarks came weeks after the latest US-China trade talks in London. The meeting was believed to focus on semiconductors and critical minerals, areas in which Washington and Beijing hold significant leverage over each other, respectively. Yet neither Beijing nor Washington has released an official readout of the dialogue since the negotiations ended, hinting at considerable uncertainty. Delegations from both sides said the trade agreement would require approval from their leaders, US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Shortly after the negotiations, Trump on social media said a deal with Beijing was 'done', adding that China would supply full magnets and any necessary rare earths 'up front'. Beijing has yet to issue a comprehensive response regarding its take on the talks, nor has Xi commented on them publicly. Meanwhile, US investor sentiment towards China has declined sharply. According to a survey last month by the China General Chamber of Commerce-USA, nearly half of the more than 100 Chinese companies who responded said they planned to reduce their investment in the US. The shift was also evident last month at the Commerce Department-backed SelectUSA Investment Summit, where only about 50 Chinese delegates attended, down from roughly 180 in 2018. Xie's remarks also came against the backdrop of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. The Jewish state last week launched air strikes on the Islamic Republic, targeting Iranian nuclear facilities amid ongoing nuclear talks between Washington and Tehran. Israel's strikes have led to the deaths of multiple Iranian army heads and nuclear professionals. In retaliation, Iran carried out air strikes against Israel, causing casualties in Tel Aviv. Trump has issued ambiguous messages about whether the US would join Israel in striking Iran, a prospect that has stirred divisions in Washington and among his own supporters. On social media, Trump claimed the US knew the exact location of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, hinting at a possible assassination and calling on Tehran to surrender unconditionally. Tehran responded that it would not surrender. In China, Xi affirmed Beijing's willingness to mediate the crisis in a development anticipated by many as the country seeks greater visibility and sway in the Middle East. Foreign Minister Wang Yi has reached out to regional stakeholders, including his counterparts in Israel, Iran, Egypt and Oman. Wang has called for peace and condemned Israel's attacks. -- SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
Indian Express
20-06-2025
- Business
- Indian Express
China's messaging on Iran-Israel, Taiwan restricts Chinese firms, and Labubu dolls
Last Friday (June 13), Israel launched strikes on Iran under 'Operation Rising Lion', claiming that Iran is in the process of building nuclear weapons. It attacked key nuclear facilities and military generals, while Iran denied reports of weapon-building and vowed retaliation. More than 600 Iranians and 24 Israelis have died in the attacks so far. What has added to the uncertainty is the United States' stance. US President Donald Trump recently spoke of his country's involvement, saying, 'Based on the fact that there's a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks.' China, meanwhile, has called for de-escalation while condemning Israel's actions, saying it supported 'Iran in safeguarding its national sovereignty, defending its legitimate rights and interests, and ensuring the safety of its people.' This is in line with its reactions to events unfolding in the Middle East since Hamas launched attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023. In last week's tracker, we wrote about discussions on a China-US trade deal, but this week, the geopolitical rivalry between the countries touched on AI and semiconductors. Taiwan, the island on which China lays territorial claims, restricted dealings with Chinese tech companies. Finally, a Chinese-origin company's toy has taken social media by storm in recent days, with Chinese state media websites publishing several stories on it. At a press briefing on Thursday (June 19), a Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson said, 'The conflict continues to escalate, not only wreaking havoc on the people in both countries, but also gravely hurting peace and stability in the region and beyond. China is deeply concerned.' He said China called on the parties to the conflict, 'especially Israel', to act in the larger interest of the region, stop the conflict immediately, and de-escalate the situation. UPSHOT: China has important economic and strategic interests in the region. It buys 90% of Iranian oil exports, and is Israel's second-largest trade partner. In 2023, it helped broker a detente between two regional rivals — the Sunni-majority Saudi Arabia and the Shia-majority Iran. The next year, it helped 14 Palestinian groups, including Hamas, sign a declaration in Beijing on 'pledging to end division and strengthen unity' among them. These developments led to an expectation of China emerging as a major actor in the region, something usually done by the likes of the United States. Post-October 7, China has acted in a limited capacity. It reportedly engaged in discussions with the Houthis of Yemen after they attacked Western ships passing through the Red Sea. On the whole, however, it has exercised restraint. Several reasons have been cited for this, including its varied economic interests in the region, which would benefit from peace, and a general lack of interest in engaging in military interventions. Regional actors may also see China as a relatively new entrant in the Middle East's geopolitics. That said, it has backed certain causes. Shortly after the Hamas attacks, a spokesperson described China 'as a friend to both Israel and Palestine,' while stressing support for a 'two-state solution and establishment of an independent State of Palestine.' Its historical support for the Palestinian cause and the US support for Israel have driven this stance. Taiwan has added China's Huawei Technologies Co. and the chipmaker Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. (SMIC) to its entity list, barring the island's firms from doing business with them without a licence. The list also includes other proscribed organisations like the Taliban and al-Qaeda, and companies from Iran and Pakistan, Reuters reported. SMIC is China's largest chipmaker and has 'ramped up investment to expand production capacity and strengthen China's domestic semiconductor capability in the face of sweeping U.S. export controls,' the report added. UPSHOT: Even as Artificial Intelligence is being touted as the next big disruptor, scepticism has been raised around its actual abilities. What is clear, however, is that it will remain a flashpoint in US-China relations. Taiwan, which is another flashpoint given China's territorial claims and the US's historical support for the island, is the world's largest manufacturer of advanced chips. The recent move was its first public action on semiconductors since President Lai Ching-te said in April he would address concerns from Washington about export controls, Bloomberg reported. Whether it stems directly from discussions with the US is unclear. China has criticised the decision as 'maliciously blocking and suppressing China.' In the past, the US has restricted Huawei over security concerns. Since then, the company has launched new smartphones and AI chips elsewhere, with success. One such phone, released in August 2023, is the Mate 60 Pro. The SMIC is believed to have manufactured an advanced chip that powers the phone. Concerned over its capabilities despite US restrictions, the Commerce Department sent dozens of letters to US suppliers of SMIC, suspending permission to sell to its most advanced plant, Reuters had reported last year. In the last few weeks, social media has been abuzz with popular celebrities, including singer Rihanna, K-pop star Lisa and Indian actor Ananya Panday, posting photos of somewhat strange-looking, small figurines. Beijing-based toy brand Pop Mart launched these 'Labubu' dolls in collaboration with Hong Kong artist Kasing Lung. He created 'The Monsters' series for the brand, featuring elf-like dolls with a vinyl head and furry bodies, often with a mischievous smile. He said he was inspired by Dutch fairy tale characters, having moved to the Netherlands at a young age. In 2015, he illustrated a series on them and the dolls were launched soon after. The collaboration with Pop Mart in 2019 sparked the craze domestically, which spread to Southeast Asian countries, and then the rest of the world. They are also sold as bag accessories. UPSHOT: Chinese state media websites often indicate the Communist Party government's perspectives on issues. China Daily published at least four stories on its website just this week about the dolls. One described people queuing at stores in Australia and the UAE. Another People's Daily article said, 'It is rare for a comic or toy IP to break the culture wall and be embraced by both Asian cultures as well as mainstream Western pop stars and sports stars, according to Jessie Xu, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, which significantly raised its target price for Pop Mart shares on the strength of Labubu's performance.' The Financial Times reported that Pop Mart's market capitalisation stands at around $40 trillion today, more than that of Hasbro (with games like Monopoly and Play-Doh) and Mattel (Barbie and Hot Wheels) combined. Its shares have 'soared almost sixfold in the past year on the back of Labubu fever.' An important part of the dolls' appeal is how they are sold in blind boxes – in packages where the buyer doesn't know about the exact item they've purchased until it has been opened. However, at least one state media report raised concerns about promoting overconsumption through such sales methods. Soon after, CNBC reported that Pop Mart's Hong Kong-listed shares fell more than 5%. Overall, state media framed the Labubu sales as a positive sign, touting it as a reflection of 'China's pro-consumption policies' and that 'Greater openness is also fueling the cultural exchange crucial to IP growth'. Rishika Singh is a Senior sub-editor at the Explained Desk of The Indian Express. She enjoys writing on issues related to international relations, and in particular, likes to follow analyses of news from China. Additionally, she writes on developments related to politics and culture in India. ... Read More
Japan Forward
20-06-2025
- Business
- Japan Forward
Trump World: Nice Guys Come Last, so Show Your Cards
When President Donald Trump unveiled his "reciprocal" tariffs in early April, he also invited foreign countries to offer deals that would offset the tariff damage. Japan was the first country to enter negotiations. So, there was an expectation that, being America's most important security ally in the key Indo-Pacific region, it would be treated with kid gloves and a deal would be reached fairly quickly. So far, though, little progress has been made, and "no deal" remains a real possibility. On the other hand, America's number one foe, China, was able to negotiate a significant reduction in United States tariffs in a matter of days. The reason: China has a near-monopoly on the mining and smelting of the rare earths crucial for high-tech industrial processes. The details of the China-US agreement are scarce. However, it remains the case that China can cut off the supply at any time it chooses. In the Machiavellian world of great power rivalries, Xi Jinping holds a high denomination card. He doesn't need to use it. Just brandishing it from time to time makes the point. United States Federal Reserve in Washington, DC (©Wikimedia Commons) Japan has a high-denomination card, too, but far from brandishing it, Tokyo pretends it doesn't exist. That is the $1 trillion USD of US bonds held by Japanese entities, by far the largest foreign ownership. The Trump administration is highly sensitive to action in the US bond market. Hence, the constant attacks on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Concerns about the level of American government debt long predate the current administration. However, Trump has consciously taken a significant risk in piling up tax breaks and spending commitments in his recent "big beautiful bill." (The one described by Elon Musk as a "disgusting abomination.") A bond market rebellion leading to higher interest rates could sink his presidency, as he must know. Before the negotiations got going, Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato made an off-the-cuff comment on Japanese TV about US bonds being a possible "card" that Japan could play. The very next day, he walked back his words, stating that Japan would never do such a thing. Presumably, he was "got at" by his officials who, naively, assumed that being cooperative would earn rewards. The episode was reminiscent of the fate of Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto, one of Japan's bolder leaders. In the late 'nineties, he suggested that Japan should sell its already considerable holdings of US treasury bonds and buy gold instead. The result was a mini-tempest in global markets and a hasty denial by Hashimoto. Instead, the man who had the foresight to kickstart Japan's Big Bang in financial services was suckered again. His officials persuaded him to raise the consumption tax in the midst of a severe banking crisis, thus ending his premiership and, effectively, his political career. To his dying day, he bitterly regretted having accepted the advice of his officials. The message back then was that Japan should remain a tributary possession of the United States. Taxes on consumption were steadily increased. That continued, even under the premiership of Shinzo Abe, who did so much to overturn conventional wisdom in other areas. Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato (right) shakes hands with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on April 24, 2025. (©Japan Ministry of Finance). Japan is the world's largest creditor nation. Yet, there was a constant doom-mongering chorus from the rating agencies and establishment economists. They moaned about the risks of Japan's internal debt ー which was owed by one set of Japanese to another set of Japanese. Japan has continued to run current account surpluses decade after decade. That has helped to enable American overconsumption through Japanese over-saving. No doubt, it seemed a safe and simple strategy. But the second coming of Donald Trump raises all sorts of new possibilities. Currency regimes have undergone two controlled upheavals in the last 55 years. First was President Nixon's scrapping of the gold standard in 1970. The second was the Plaza Accord to drive down the value of the US dollar against the yen and the West German mark in 1985. Interestingly, in real terms (taking account of accumulated inflation), the dollar is roughly as high as it was pre-Plaza, and the yen at the same level as it was in 1971. Are we about to experience a similar upheaval, designed to devalue the dollar? If so, it would be unlikely to be the result of a "G7" type powwow. Today's world is too chaotic for that. More likely, it would be a genuine shock, like the end of the gold standard. Already, some disturbing ideas have been floated. The proposal to coerce American allies into buying 100-year bonds at much below market interest rates is one example. Stephan Miran, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors in the Trump administration, dreamed up that one. If inflation picked up, there could well be pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates below the level of consumer prices. As has been the case in Japan, the result would be a super-weak currency. In any of these scenarios, selling US government bonds would be a smart move. And in the current situation, nothing can be ruled out. At the very least, Japan needs to maximize its leverage by brandishing its cards and showing that it is not afraid to use them. Author: Peter Tasker Find other essays and analyses by the author on JAPAN Forward .
