
European investors cautious as China-US trade talks consume attention
European shares eased in cautious trade on Monday as investors avoided making big bets pending the outcome of Sino-U. S. trade talks in London.
The pan-European STOXX 600 ended slightly lower at 553.24 points, after four straight sessions of gains, its longest consecutive winning streak in three weeks.
Dublin
Falling slightly from a peak in afternoon trading, the Iseq All-Share index ended the session at a record close of 11,651.80, rising 29.59 points, or 0.25 per cent.
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Shares in Glanbia plc rose 1.50 per cent to €12.83, following the commencement of the company's share buyback scheme on Friday. The Irish food group purchased more than 70,000 of its own shares at an average price of €12.6283.
It was a good day of trading for the banking sector. Permanent TSB rose 1.68 per cent to €12.83, and Bank of Ireland rose 0.93 per cent to €12.48. Bank of Ireland remained largely static, dropping 0.14 per cent to €7.07.
Insulation specialist Kingspan, remained largely static in trading on Monday after making gains last week following the announcement that it would increase its planned investment in the US roofing business to $1 billion over the next five years. Shares rose 0.26 per cent to 75.75.
In housing and construction, Glenveagh rose 1.14 per cent to €1.77, Irish Residential Properties REIT increased 0.93 per cent to €1.09, and Cairn Homes rode the rising sectoral tide to €2.19, up 0.92 per cent.
It was a mixed day for leisure and travel stocks, hotel group Dalata rose 0.32 per cent to €6.25, while Ryanair fell slightly, down 0.08 per cent, to €24.26.
London
The blue chip FTSE 100 index fell 5.63 points, 0.1 per cent, to 8,832.28. The more domestically focused FTSE 250 ended up 128.63 points, 0.6 per cent, at 21,285.91.
On the FTSE 100, M & G rose 3.2 per cent as UBS upgraded to 'buy', but WPP fell 2.8 per cent after it said Mark Read will step down as chief executive officer at the end of 2025 after seven years leading the company.
In London, shares in Cordel plunged 12 per cent after it warned full-year revenue will be lower than forecast.
The London-based company, which uses artificial intelligence to supply transport corridor analytics, expects to report revenue in the range of £4.7 million (€5.6 million) and £5 million for the financial year to June 30th. It would represent growth of up to 12 per cent from £4.4 million the year before.
But chief executive John Davis said it will be 'lower than forecast', despite the firm making 'excellent strategic progress' in the financial year.
Broker Cavendish lowered its financial 2025 revenue forecast to £4.8 million from £6.2 million.
Elsewhere, Dunelm fell 3.9 per cent after RBC Capital Markets downgraded to 'sector perform' from 'outperform', while, Trustpilot slid 5.8 per cent as Panmure Liberum slapped a 'sell' rating on the company.
Europe
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index remained largely unchanged, down 0.072 per cent, in a quiet day when several markets were closed due to holidays.
Trading was thin as markets in Switzerland, Denmark and Norway were among those closed due to the Whit Monday holiday. The utilities sector was among the biggest losers. Often tracked as a bond proxy – a slide in Eurozone bonds pressured the index.
China said on Friday that it was willing to accelerate the examination and approval of rare earth exports to European Union firms. Automakers – a sector vulnerable to any rare earth supply disruptions – was flat.
Among individual stocks, Spectris soared 60.1 per cent after the scientific instruments maker said it would accept a 3.73 billion pounds (€4.43 billion) bid from Advent.
New York
Wall Street's main indexes were mixed in mid-amidafternooning on Monday as investors watched a fresh round of US-China negotiations aimed at mending a trade rift that has rattled financial markets for much of the year.
Top officials from both countries have kicked off discussions at London's Lancaster House, looking to get back on track with a preliminary trade agreement struck last month that had briefly cooled tensions between the world's largest economies.
Nvidia gained as most megacap and growth stocks were up. Tesla was down marginally after brokerage Baird downgraded the stock to 'neutral'.
Warner Bros Discovery shares jumped after the company said it would separate its studios and streaming business from its fading cable television networks.
Robinhood Markets fell after S&P Dow Jones Indices left S&P 500 constituents unchanged in its latest rebalancing, following recent speculation that the online brokerage would be added to the benchmark index. – Additional reporting, Reuters, PA.
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Where is the value in increasing the Help-to-Buy scheme threshold?
Pre-budget submissions are all about pleadings. Every special interest group in the State makes a pitch for more resources. They all consider their proposals to be in the wider public and economic interest. Some are worthy, many more are largely self-interested. This year the whole process appears to have kicked off earlier than usual, perhaps on the understanding that the largesse of recent years is unlikely to be repeated this time around. In the first place, there is no election. Worries for the medium-term health of Europe's most open economy in a climate where tariffs, trade wars and an absence of consistency on policy are increasingly the norm also will inevitably push Ministers towards a more cautious approach. And for what money is available, the need is to prioritise investment in infrastructure. Expensive upgrades to electricity, water and sewerage networks that are increasingly being cited by foreign direct investors among factors counting against Ireland Inc are needed. READ MORE An EY survey on Friday found that more than two-thirds of Irish businesses 'are worried about securing enough energy to meet future needs', which is an extraordinary number. Put together, it means more things are going to be a tough ask to get over the line. [ First-time buyers in Dublin now locked out of Help-to-Buy scheme, warns Savills Opens in new window ] It seems a strange time then for estate agent Savills to be picking CSO house price data to press for an increase in the upper threshold for the Help-to-Buy scheme. Savills says first-time buyers in Dublin are paying an average of €515,000 for a home, putting them beyond the €500,000 ceiling for Help-to-Buy. It wants that ceiling increased to at least €621,000 to take account of inflation, it says. First, averages are notoriously prone to manipulation by singular expensive property sales. Second, the more reliable median data from the same CSO note shows that prices exceed €460,000 only in Dún Laoghaire Rathdown among the four Dublin local authority areas. [ Developers are bluffing when they say lower prices would undermine viability of house building Opens in new window ] Then there is the maximum available tax refund under Help-to-Buy, which is €30,000. Ignoring that when calling for a higher ceiling is not making property more affordable for first-time buyers in general, only for the very wealthy. It is worth remembering that while the marketing speaks about providing a helping hand for first-time buyers – with even the scheme's name selected for the same reason – Help-to-Buy was from the start a scheme put together to help developers make the numbers stack up on building starter homes. That's not happening, as supply constraints (and prices rising at their fastest rate in 10 years) attest, so for the State – and those first-time buyers – what is the value of widening the incentive?


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Paul Coulson faces last stand in battle to retain control of Ardagh
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Coulson effectively owns 36 per cent of Ardagh Group. READ MORE Ardagh Group has acknowledged for more than a year that it needs to reduce its liabilities, after both its glass and beverage cans businesses had been hit since the Covid-19 pandemic by inflation, soaring interest rates, and soft consumer demand on both sides of the Atlantic. The heavily-indebted business proposed in March that a group of senior unsecured bondholders write off much of the $2.32 billion they are owed in exchange for taking full ownership of the glass containers part of the business. The plan also envisaged Ardagh Group spinning its shares in AMP into new company (NewCo). This would be 80 per cent owned by Coulson and other existing Ardagh Group shareholders – with the unsecured creditors receiving the remaining 20 per cent. 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Irish Times
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‘Trump always chickens out' is starting to look more like ‘the man always gets his way'
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The pressure on the European Commission to agree a deal is growing, and there is no cast-iron guarantee that the EU can stick together. Germany , where car exports are being hit hard by a special 25 per cent tariff on this sector, is pushing hard for a quick agreement. That might suit Ireland, too; though, of course, it will depend on the terms – and particularly what is said on pharma. Dublin would prefer no additional tariffs on any exports to the US, but that does not seem likely. The other main Irish interest will be the tech sector, where there are reports of some progress as part of wider negotiations on non-tariff aspects of the EU/US deal. The last thing Ireland wants is for the big US digital tech players with bases here to be drawn into the trade battle. That said, in the 'nothing is agreed until everything is agreed' world of trade talks, we will just have to wait and see on this one. This week's agreement on tax – in which the US will drop a new part of its budget bill, section 899, which would have given it powers to impose taxes on investors and businesses from other countries operating in the US – is another sign of Europe accommodating Trump. To achieve this, the other G7 countries are offering to rewrite part of the OECD corporate tax deal. This would have allowed other countries – including Ireland – to require US companies to pay top-up taxes in their jurisdiction if they did not meet the 15 per cent minimum tax payment rule elsewhere. Agreeing the change is a notable backing down by the European members of the G7 and chips away again at the OECD corporate tax deal, painfully negotiated over many years. The EU now looks likely to give ground on the tariffs as well, at least to the extent of accepting the 10 per cent remaining in place. This may lead to some kind of an agreement by July 9th – likely one that requires more talking in the months ahead. And a falling-out between the two sides can by no means be ruled out, leading to Trump imposing higher tariffs to try to force more concessions. Were this to happen, the EU would finally have to respond with its own tariffs. And then we would be into dangerous waters. Brussels and EU capitals will try to avoid this all-out trade war. But they will only do so by agreeing a deal that gives more to Washington than it does to the EU. Talk at this week's EU summit by European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen that the bloc would go off and join an existing group of 11 Asia-Pacific countries – who have formed a trade partnership that the UK has also signed up to – is an irrelevant distraction. There is nothing wrong with diversifying trade, but this looks about as convincing a negotiating tactic as the UK's talk of doing deals with far-flung countries during the Brexit process. So the EU looks to be on the back foot. It will offer more concessions than Washington and hope that this is enough to at least extend the talks with the US, and perhaps tie down a few key areas. Ireland has escaped the worst of the tariffs so far, largely because pharma has been excluded, though other exports, including food and drink, have been hit by the additional 10 per cent charge. Continuing to avoid too much economic pain would require two things. One, obviously, is the avoidance of a trade war. Ireland will argue for the quick deal. The second is some agreement in relation to pharmaceuticals which is not too punitive. Given the scale of Irish pharma exports to the US, this is clearly the area where Ireland remains most exposed in the short term, either to tariffs being imposed or other tax or negotiated measures which mean less profit being reported here and thus less corporation tax. And in the longer term, it puts questions over the scale of US investment here, particularly to serve the American market. Having done so well over recent years, Ireland remains in the frame here. It is hard to see all this uncertainty being taken off the table all at once. Ireland will hope that the mood in the EU will mean some kind of deal before the July 9th deadline. Beyond that, more negotiations and questions will lie ahead. As we see with this weekend's fresh outbreak of trade tensions between the US and Canada, the path of negotiations with Trump is rarely straightforward. Trump has tilted the pitch in his favour and will continue to push for more. And the longer-term damage he is creating to the international economy and political relations won't worry him one bit.