How to trade the S&P 500's march to record highs using options as volatility remains elevated
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CNBC
12 minutes ago
- CNBC
Gold ticks higher with focus on US inflation data
Gold inched higher on Tuesday, ahead of the release of U.S. inflation data later in the day that could shed more light on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. Spot gold was up 0.1% at $3,346.94 per ounce, as of 0151 GMT. U.S. gold futures were flat at $3,355.60. "Gold has shown in the past that it is an asset of choice when tariff tensions are ratcheted up, and the precious metal's move towards $3,350 is evidence of this pattern playing out again," KCM Trade Chief Market Analyst Tim Waterer said. "However, higher treasury yields and USD appreciation have created gold to make further progress towards $3,400 a pullback in the USD or treasury yields may be required in the absence of heightened geopolitical events." U.S. President Donald Trump on Saturday threatened to impose a 30% tariff on imports from Mexico and the European Union starting on August 1, after weeks of negotiations with the major U.S. trading partners failed to reach a trade deal. Traders' focus now shifts to U.S. consumer price data for June, due at 1230 GMT on Tuesday. Economists polled by Reuters expect headline inflation to increase to 2.7% on an annual basis, up from 2.4% in the prior month. Core inflation is expected to rise to 3.0%, from 2.8%. Trump on Monday renewed his attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, saying interest rates should be at 1% or lower. Markets are pricing in 50 basis points of rate cuts by year-end, with the first reduction expected in September. Gold, often considered as a safe-haven asset during times of economic uncertainties, tends to do well in a low-interest-rate environment. Elsewhere, spot silver gained 0.3% to $38.24 per ounce, after hitting its highest level since September 2011 on Monday. "Silver is benefitting from supply concerns and growing industrial demand. Also, gold's rise over the past 18 months has had investors looking elsewhere for value and silver has been one of the metals to rise as a result," Waterer said. Platinum rose 0.3% to $1,368.30 and palladium edged 0.1% higher to $1,194.52.
CNBC
12 minutes ago
- CNBC
Dollar holds near three-week high before CPI data; Bitcoin hovers above $120,000
The dollar hovered near a three-week high versus major peers on Tuesday as traders awaited the release of U.S. inflation data later in the day that could provide clues on the path for monetary policy. The U.S. currency was also buoyed by elevated Treasury yields, with investors weighing a potential exit of Jerome Powell from the Federal Reserve as President Donald Trump continued his criticism of the central bank chairman. The Aussie dollar dipped from last week's eight-month peak ahead of a report on gross domestic product in China, Australia's top trading partner. Bitcoin changed hands at $120,067, after pushing to an all-time high $123,153.22 on Monday as investors bet on long-sought legislative policy wins for the cryptocurrency industry this week. The dollar was little changed at 147.75 yen early in Asia's day, trading just below Monday's high since June 23 at 147.78. The dollar index, which tracks the currency against the yen and five other major rivals, stood at 98.104, just below the overnight peak of 98.136, the highest since June 25. The euro was steady at $1.1662 after slipping to $1.1650 on Monday for the first time since June 25. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said that he expects inflation to increase this summer as a result of tariffs, which is seen keeping the U.S. central bank on hold until later in the year. Economists polled by Reuters expect headline inflation to increase to 2.7% on an annual basis, up from 2.4% the prior month. Core inflation is expected to rise to 3.0%, from 2.8%. "Should inflation fail to materialize or remain steady, questions may arise regarding the Fed's recent decision not to cut rates, potentially intensifying calls for monetary easing," James Kniveton, senior corporate FX dealer at Convera, wrote in a client note. "Calls from the White House for leadership changes at the Fed may increase." Trump on Monday renewed his attacks on Powell, saying interest rates should be at 1% or lower, rather than the 4.25% to 4.50% range the Fed has kept the key rate at so far this year. Fed funds futures traders have been pricing in 50 basis points of interest rate cuts by year-end, with the first reduction expected in September. Meanwhile, China's economy is likely to have cooled in the second quarter after a solid start to the year, as trade tensions and a prolonged property downturn drag on demand, raising pressure on policymakers to roll out additional stimulus to underpin growth. Data due on Tuesday is expected to show GDP grew 5.1% year-on-year in April–June, slowing from 5.4% in the first quarter, according to a Reuters poll. "Should the data disappoint, and China's economic situation continue to underwhelm expectations, this could maintain downward pressure on the Australian dollar," said Kniveton. The Aussie edged down slightly to $0.6542.
CNBC
12 minutes ago
- CNBC
Oil edges down as market contemplates potential sanctions, tariffs
Oil prices edged down on Tuesday as the market digested U.S. President Donald Trump's 50-day deadline for Russia to end the Ukraine war and avoid sanctions on buyers of its oil, while worries continued to linger over Trump's trade tariffs. Brent crude futures fell 5 cents to $69.16 a barrel by 0000 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell to $66.89, down 9 cents. Both contracts settled more than $1 lower in the previous session. Trump announced new weapons for Ukraine on Monday, and threatened sanctions on buyers of Russian exports unless Moscow agrees to a peace deal in 50 days. Oil prices had climbed at the news of potential sanctions, but later gave up these gains as the 50-day deadline raised hopes that sanctions could be avoided, and traders dwelled on whether the U.S. would actually impose steep tariffs on countries continuing to trade with Russia. "The pause eased concerns that direct sanctions on Russia could disrupt crude oil flows. Sentiment was also weighed down by rising trade tensions," ANZ senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes wrote in a note to clients. Trump said on Saturday he would impose a 30% tariff on most imports from the European Union and Mexico from August 1, adding to similar warnings for other countries and leaving them less than three weeks to hammer out framework deals that could lower the threatened tariff rates. Tariffs risk slowing down economic growth, which could sap global fuel demand and drag oil prices lower. Elsewhere, oil demand is set to stay "very strong" through the third quarter, keeping the market snugly balanced in the near term, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' secretary general said, according to a Russian media report. Goldman Sachs on Monday raised its oil price outlook for the second half of 2025, pointing to potential supply disruptions, shrinking oil inventories in Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries, and production constraints in Russia.
