Pros and Cons: Should Mets trade for Griffin Jax?

Yahoo

a day ago

Contenders almost always covet elite bullpen arms at the MLB trade deadline, so Griffin Jax, a 30-year-old right-hander with eye-popping stuff, should be quite a popular guy over the next week-plus. That is, if the Minnesota Twins make the reliever, who's still got plenty of control, available for a deal.
Already, Jax is being linked in media reports to the Dodgers and Phillies. Other heavyweights figure to be lurking, too. Heck, adding an accomplished reliever at the deadline is a great way for GMs and presidents of baseball operations to feel good about themselves, right? Nothing stings more than a late-inning loss during a playoff push, so bulking up the bridge to the closer is comforting.
With that in mind, here's a look at whether the Mets should try to trade for Jax, setup man extraordinaire. What are the Pros and Cons?
PROS
The Mets were 12th in the majors in bullpen ERA (3.83) entering play Wednesday and they've encountered workload issues in the pen thanks to their starters not pitching deep into games most nights.
When they get to Edwin Díaz, great -- but the Mets must make sure the path through the high-leverage innings before the closer arrives aren't a harrowing adventure, especially if they want to make October noise.
Jax could help. The righty, who is under club control through the 2027 season, is the first graduate of the Air Force Academy to pitch in the major leagues and he's the son of an NFL linebacker. Jax's dad, Garth, played for 10 seasons for the Cowboys and Cardinals, starting in the mid-1980s.
Last year, Jax, who forms a wicked 1-2 combo in Minnesota's bullpen with Jhoan Duran, had an incredible season, recording a 2.03 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP and striking out 95 in 71 innings while walking only 15.
His ERA is much higher this season (4.09), but many underlying numbers still impress. His chase percentage (41.1) is the best in MLB and his whiff percentage and strikeout percentage are both in the 99th percentile, according to Statcast. His walks are up slightly, but he's still stingy there, too -- 2.1 per nine innings.
Jax's 88 mph sweeper is his most-used pitch and hitters are batting just .211 against it. He's been quoted saying he learned the pitch during the pandemic and it's really enhanced his repertoire with its lateral movement. Jax can throw five or six pitches, but another reliable weapon is his changeup, which is 86-plus mph. Batters have a .154 average against that delivery.
Jax has had one taste of the postseason -- in 2023, he made four scoreless appearances over two series for the Twins, allowing just one hit and no walks while striking out five.
Since 2022, when Jax became a full-time reliever, he's accumulated 5.1 WAR, according to baseball-reference.com. Only 15 relievers have been better, including the guy just above Jax on the list -- Díaz, at 5.2.
CONS
Jax is hard to hit. But once batters have been putting the ball in play, they've had success against him this season. Jax is allowing a .367 BABIP and he's giving up more line drives and more hard contact, according to baseball-reference.com. Opponents have fared well against his hard stuff, a 97-mph four-seamer and a sinker.
There may be some luck involved in how his ERA is bigger. While his ERA is where it is, his FIP (fielding independent pitching), sits at 1.91. His expected ERA is 2.88, which is ranked in the 91st percentile in MLB, according to Statcast.
The Mets actually had a hand in making his ERA balloon -- on April 16, they staged a rally against Jax.
Down 3-0 in Minnesota, they scored three times in the eighth off him, thanks to RBI doubles by Pete Alonso and Jesse Winker and an RBI single by Luisangel Acuña. Two nights later, the Braves clobbered him, too.
Over that span, Jax allowed seven runs and seven hits in 1.1 innings.
Since then, though, he has a 2.04 ERA.
VERDICT
Another easy yes, though the usual cost cautions certainly apply as well. Jax is very good, has two more seasons of team control and will be hotly pursued by other contenders. But the Twins don't HAVE to trade him, so this is no pennies-on-the-dollar deal.
Minnesota was 49-52 entering Wednesday and a fringe playoff hopeful, but they'd have Jax for two more pennant races if they kept him.
So how far, in terms of prospect return, would this year's powerhouses be willing to go to help solidify their bullpens, especially when Jax is a long-term asset?
The Dodgers just put Tanner Scott on the IL and their bullpen needs help even more than the Mets' pen does. Los Angeles has already been hunting relievers. The Phillies are ranked 23rd in relief ERA, one slot above the Dodgers. The Yankees and Tigers both have bullpen ERAs above 4.00, too.
The Mets had a rollicking ride to the NLCS last year. Another deep run probably requires more high-end bullpen parts. Jax qualifies.