Will Russia benefit from the Israel-Iran war?
"In this new dangerous situation ... our consultations with Russia can certainly be of great importance," Russian state media reported Araghchi as saying after landing in the Moscow on Sunday night.
As the two men met face to face, Putin condemned the "absolutely unprovoked aggression against Iran" from the US and said that Russia was "making efforts to provide assistance to the Iranian people".
But even as the Kremlin denounces the attacks on its long-term strategic ally, a continued conflict brings potential opportunities for Russia.
Iran announced on Sunday it would close the Strait of Hormuz, a water passage on Iran's south coast through which around one-fifth of the world oil trade passes. Doing so is likely to send global oil prices soaring, giving a boost to Moscow's sanctions-hit economy.
But most importantly for Russia, while the US – and the world – has their eyes trained on Israel and Iran, Putin's war in Ukraine has slipped down the agenda.
The United States becoming embroiled in a prolonged conflict could also have a material impact on Ukraine's future defence capabilities.
US President Donald Trump has not clarified whether he intends to continue attacks on Iran. But supporting Israel in the long term may well mean that 'the US will have to provide Israel with missiles, air defence and interceptors ', said the International Crisis Group's senior Russia analyst, Oleg Ignatov.
'That means these will not go to Ukraine and, of course, that is in Russia's interest.'
There are also the moral implications of the US joining an attack on Iran under the shaky legal pretext that it was a pre-emptive act of self-defence – the same justification that Western leaders have denounced Putin as using for invading Ukraine in 2022.
In the longer term, if the US becomes involved in another 'unwinnable Middle East war, then that actually hastens America's decline that President Putin has now been predicting for years', said Kadri Liik, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations and an expert on Russia.
'Performative diplomacy'
The deputy chair of Russia's Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, on Sunday even hinted at an Iranian nuclear retaliation against the United States, backed by Russia. Trump had 'pushed the US into a new war' in which 'a number of countries' were ready to 'directly supply Iran with their own nuclear warheads', he wrote on social media.
But such a step seems unlikely.
While Iran has supported Russia's war in Ukraine by providing drones and other military equipment, so far the Kremlin has offered no military help to Iran – despite a sweeping strategic partnership agreement signed just months ago in which the two countries agreed to help each other counter common "security threats".
As long as Russia's military resources are concentrated in Ukraine, Putin seems to have little appetite for conflict in Israel and Iran and has pitched himself as an informal peace broker – while rejecting the possibility of acting as an official mediator.
"We are simply suggesting ideas … if they turn out to be attractive to both sides, we will only be happy," he said when discussing the conflict at an economic forum in Saint Petersburg on Friday.
Realistically, the Russian leader holds little influence over outcomes in Israel or Iran. 'Russia is not strong enough to shape the new order emerging in the Middle East, and maybe not best positioned to gain from it,' said Liik.
But that doesn't mean he won't try. 'Putin is very tactical, and he will try to make gains from the situation,' Ignatov said.
One best-case scenario for Russia is a short-term conflict in which the Kremlin offers what limited military defence it can currently provide to Iran in exchange for a pledge from Tehran to avoid striking US bases in its proximity.
Such an arrangement would both increase Iran's reliance on Russia and ward off the risk of a spat with the US. 'Russia can say it doesn't want escalation, but it is ready to help Iran and defend itself. That seems logical,' Ignatov said.
It would also be an extension of what Liik calls Putin's policy of 'performative diplomacy' towards the United States while he pursues his own goals in Ukraine.
'Russia pretends to be helpful, it pretends to be engaged in diplomatic processes … while not actually giving in an inch on their maximalist demands and playing for time,' she said.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Euronews
an hour ago
- Euronews
'Putin needs war to stay in power', Estonia's PM Kristen Michal tells Euronews
Estonia's Prime Minister, Kristen Michal, has told Euronews that if Russia is to end the war in Ukraine, then President Vladimir Putin would have to answer a raft of uncomfortable questions from his own people, so continuing the fighting means he stays in power. 'Putin needs conflict, like fish needs water, because if you don't have a conflict, then probably people in Russia will be asking: Where is my son? Where is my husband? Where are my assets?' Michal told Euronews. "To be honest, we know our neighbour. For Putin, it's all about being in power.' He said the threat to Europe posed by Russia will remain so long as Putin is in the Kremlin. "We understand Putin and until the regime and Putin changes his goals, until then Russia is an acute threat to Europe, to NATO, to all the civilised world," he explained. Estonia's defence expenditure at over 5% of GDP is one of the highest in NATO, something Michal says is necessary, even if at times it has been unpopular. 'We cut spending, we are borrowing and we also raise taxes. To be honest, not everything in that order are not so popular in Estonia,' he said, adding that democracies need to be protected against neighbouring authoritarian regimes. It's this preparation which ensures the country is 'prepared' for any designs Putin has beyond his territorial ambitions in Ukraine. It comes at a time when all NATO members, except for Spain, have pledged to raise defence spending to 5% of GDP , in line with a demand from US President Donald Trump. Estonia takes on Russian influence Estonia still has a large Russian minority living in the country. However, the government has been vigilant in countering Russian influence by trying to eliminate the language from schools. "With the language we are the same we have this kind of reform going to Estonian schooling. And I would say that it should have been done 20 or 30 years ago, but we're doing it right now. There are small debates, but nothing major," Michal said. Russian citizens are also not allowed to vote in local elections, as Estonia hopes to send a powerful message to its neighbour. Michal is clear on the issue: "If you want to participate in the local matters, it's quite obvious you should be a citizen of that state." Cyber frontlines Estonia was also the first country to suffer a cyberattack from Russia back in 2007. "From stateside criminal players and for us, the only way to cope with Russia's kind of influence hybrid attacks and cyber-attacks is to increase our cyber capabilities. We have this kind of system also that the public sector is working with private sector in Estonia, but Russia has not decreased its attacks against us," Michal said.
Euronews
2 hours ago
- Euronews
EU now imports more LNG than pipeline gas: Is it bad for the climate?
The first quarter of 2025 has marked a significant shift in EU gas imports. For the first time, the bloc seems to be importing more liquefied natural gas (LNG) than natural gas through pipelines: 8.4 million tonnes compared with 8.2 million tonnes, according to Eurostat data. The quantity of LNG imports soared by 12%, compared to Q1 2024, which also meant a sharp increase in money spent on these imports. This figure soared by 45%, totalling €5.3 billion. This shift was driven by the recent expansion or reactivation of LNG regasification facilities in countries like Poland, Finland, the Netherlands, Germany, Croatia, Italy, Belgium and Greece following the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. More expensive and questionable environmentally: the dark side of LNG LNG implies higher upfront operational costs because it needs to be frozen to -162°C to be transported, becoming 600 times smaller in volume before it's regassified. Also, transporting it requires specially equipped trucks or cargo ships, which have a much bigger environmental impact than common pipelines. A study by New York's Cornell University quantified LNG's carbon footprint as 33% higher than coal. "The emissions of methane and carbon dioxide released during LNG's extraction, processing, transportation and storage account for approximately half of its total greenhouse gas footprint," says the study's author, Robert Howarth. Compared to pipeline gas, the International Energy Agency claimed LNG has a 67% larger carbon footprint (12 g CO2/MJ pipeline vs 20 g CO2/MJ). However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) insisted that there's room to bring emissions down by about 60% by reducing leaks and flaring, as well as using carbon capture. Why was the EU forced to resort to LNG? LNG is an extremely flexible resource, due to the possibility of signing short-term contracts, allowing for quicker adjustments to market downturns and volatility. The fact that importing LNG doesn't require pipelines also makes it more resilient to logistical issues like infrastructural damage or blockades, mitigating the impact of geopolitical shocks. The EU used to import a lot of natural gas from Russia via pipeline, but that dramatically changed after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. First, Moscow shut down its Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Europe, which was also badly damaged, later, in an underwater sabotage by unknown attackers, along with Nord Stream 2 (which was never launched). Additionally, almost no Russian gas is coming to Europe through Ukraine, as Kyiv didn't renew the necessary transit contracts in January. Russia remains the EU's second LNG provider after the US The share of Russian natural gas in total EU energy imports fell dramatically from 41% in 2021 to around 18% in 2024, according to EU Commission data. Faced with pipeline cuts, the EU was forced to pivot to liquefied gas. In 2025, the US continues to be the EU's largest LNG partner, accounting for just over half of all imports in value (50.7%), followed by Russia (17%) and Qatar (10.8%). Russia's imports, however, are still relevant, and the EU can't afford to cut them completely just yet. The bloc opted for sideline measures like a ban on future investments in LNG projects in Russia as well as a ban on the use of EU ports for the transhipment of Russian LNG, and on the provision of goods, technology and services for Russian LNG projects. Recently, the EU set 2027 as its deadline to stop all Russian energy imports, including LNG. Whether it will meet it or not, member states are rushing to diversify their gas partners, primarily boosting pipeline imports from Norway — which sells the EU over half of its natural gas imports — Azerbaijan and Algeria. Germany backs extraction agreement with the Netherlands "Energy prices are higher in the EU than in most other industrialised economies, presenting a fundamental competitiveness challenge," a recent Bruegel report read. Countries like Germany and Romania are responding by launching plans to boost gas extraction. On Wednesday, Berlin backed a cross-border agreement with the Netherlands for cross-border extraction in the North Sea. Bucharest is headed to the Black Sea with an ambitious project called Neptun Deep. This marks Romania's biggest energy project in two decades, and should become operational in 2027, to exploit the estimated 100 billion cubic meters of gas reserves. In Q1 2025, the EU spent 19% more on natural gas imports compared to the same period last year, although it bought 12% less in quantity. Regarding all energy imports, Eurostat notes that costs "increased slightly by 0.3%, while the volume decreased by 3.9%".
France 24
2 hours ago
- France 24
Modi pushes further India-Africa cooperation on Ghana visit
In a speech to Ghana's parliament, Modi highlighted a major rail project that opened in the west African nation last year, financed by the India Export-Import Bank. He also underlined his country's expanding diplomatic development and business footprint in Africa. "Over 200 projects across the continent enhance connectivity, infrastructure and Industrial capacity," Modi said. On the political front he welcomed "the establishment of Ghana-India Parliamentary Friendship Society in your parliament". Modi's visit is the first to Ghana by an Indian leader in three decades. But India's rival China remains the most important backer of infrastructure across the continent, a position only strengthened as the United States and other Western powers slash aid programmes. In a meeting Wednesday, Modi and Ghanaian President John Mahama agreed to deepen security and mining ties. In November 2024, the Indian prime minister visited Nigeria, discussing trade and security at a time when Indian companies had expressed interest in investing in Nigerian industries including steel. The Indian prime minister also on Thursday called for a greater global diplomatic role for both his country and Africa, warning that "the world order created after the Second World War is changing fast". Global South's voice Modi noted that the African Union had been admitted as a permanent member to the G20 while India held the rotating presidency of the bloc. Progress on worldwide challenges including climate change, diplomacy, "terrorism" and pandemics "cannot come without giving voice to the Global South", he added. India, the world's most populous country and a nuclear-armed power, has close ties with Russia but is often in rivalry with China. Resource-rich Ghana is Modi's first stop in a tour that will take the Indian premier to four other countries in Africa, the Caribbean and South America. The visit to Accra came as he made his way to Brazil for a summit of the BRICS group of emerging economies on Sunday and Monday. Highlighting his own country's economic development aspirations to become a "developed nation by 2047," Modi said "India remains a committed partner in Africa's development journey." © 2025 AFP
