Why 100 000 South Africans could lose their jobs thanks to Donald Trump
The anticipated job losses would primarily hit the automotive and agricultural sectors, both critical pillars of the country's economy.
The warning comes amid growing concern over the US government's decision to impose 30% tariffs on South African imports, a move that could seriously undermine trade relations and damage the country's fragile economic recovery.
'By some measures, if we do not find alternative measures, the impact on jobs could be around 100 000,' Kganyago said during a media briefing.
The automotive industry, which supports over 100 000 direct jobs, has already experienced an 82% drop in exports to the US this year due to earlier 25% tariffs on vehicle components.
Industry insiders warn that further tariffs could push several manufacturers – particularly those dependent on the US market – into crisis.
Meanwhile, agriculture, a major employer in rural areas, faces a similar threat.
Despite posting record $13.7 billion in exports in 2024, the sector could see widespread job losses, especially among low-skilled workers with limited alternative employment options.
President Cyril Ramaphosa has indicated a willingness to negotiate a reduction in tariffs, but no agreement has been reached with US counterparts.
With the tariffs due to take effect in August 2025, time is running out for diplomacy to avert a crisis.
Economists and trade analysts have urged the government to: Strengthen trade partnerships beyond the US
Accelerate domestic economic reforms to support local industries
And implement short-term relief measures to protect jobs
South Africa's vulnerability to global trade shifts is once again in sharp focus.
Without swift and effective measures, the combination of US tariffs and potential AGOA exclusion could deliver a major blow to economic growth, export revenues, and employment.
Let us know by leaving a comment below, or send a WhatsApp to 060 011 021 1
Subscribe to The South African website's newsletters and follow us on WhatsApp, Facebook, X and Bluesky for the latest news.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Daily Maverick
34 minutes ago
- Daily Maverick
Why punish the children of 2025 for the apartheid sins of their parents?
Bidvest's recent handling of its bursary scheme deeply unsettles me. The company has a bursary programme for students from grades 4 to 12. The bursary covers school fees, stationery, school uniforms and assistance with extra classes. Full-time employees earning less than R15,300 per month before deductions may apply. However, the programme is only for black, coloured or Indian employees. White employees' children are explicitly excluded. It reminds me of the day I was chased out of the post office because the child in me was too naïve to see the 'whites only' notice. The door for coloured people was at the back. It also reminded me of the time when I had to wait for the train as a student at the University of the Western Cape, but couldn't sit on the bench that had the words 'for whites only' written on it. I vowed to myself that I would do everything in my power to prevent any child from being hurt like that again. If it hadn't been for a good Samaritan who took care of me when I was a poor student so that I could receive a bursary, I would not be in the position to write this article today. In its defence, Bidvest states that the trust was established in 2003 as part of a corporate social investment structure that formed part of a consortium for black economic empowerment. They further argue that in accordance with the principles and philosophy of the Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment Act 53 of 2003, the trust was established with the sole purpose of uplifting historically disadvantaged individuals who are employees of the Bidvest Group. It has been in operation for 22 years and has been very successful in changing the lives of their employees and their families, states a release from the company's communications firm. With regards to the success of the programme, I will not argue, and I want to give Bidvest credit for the fact that 22 years ago it was indeed important to uplift historically disadvantaged black people. However, this is not what is being discussed here. On its website, the company states that they want to make a meaningful 'impact on society' in a way that is 'innovative' and that the company is 'influenced by the context within which it operates'. They want to do this in a 'unique and resilient' way within an adaptable structure. The board members of Bidvest will agree with me that the circumstances today look significantly different than 22 years ago. After 30 years of a democratic order, the playing field is completely different. Today you find poor children across a wide spectrum of South African society. It is no longer restricted to just black children. As vice-dean at the University of Stellenbosch's Faculty of Education, it was my task to administer bursaries. I am also involved in the Foundation for Empowerment through Afrikaans (Stigting vir Bemagtiging deur Afrikaans, SBA) Honours programme and Rapport's education bursary fund. Over the past 20 years I have seen how our financial landscape has changed. Poverty knows – unlike 22 years ago – no colour. Students who are dependent on bursaries have increased among all families. Therefore, no student should be disadvantaged. The only criterion should be whether the child qualifies for the bursary and whether or not their parents can afford their studies. Also, the context in which the company currently operates differs from when the bursary scheme was established. Today, all employees can progress to the boardroom. I would really like to know how Bidvest looks its staff in the eye knowing that the company has failed to help all the needy children. What impact does this have on healthy relationships in the boardroom when employees who earn the same do not receive equal treatment? I acknowledge the terms of the trust that was established 22 years ago, but surely a company that prides itself on being adaptable and innovative could have made a plan to start a new bursary scheme from which all its employees can benefit? Nelson Mandela once said: 'Education is the most powerful weapon which you can use to change the world.' These words of Madiba emphasise the transformative potential of education and highlight the critical role that education plays in promoting social, economic and political change. It is time for all of us – including Bidvest – to act on Madiba's words. Therefore, I could not remain silent when Bidvest ran a bursary programme 'only for black, coloured and Indian' children. It brings back all the pain and sorrow of the past. Children of 2025 had no part in South Africa's apartheid past. Why punish them for the sins of their forefathers? All children have dreams. All children are born in innocence. It is adults who raise children to be racists. After 30 years of democracy, it's time for us to banish words like whites, blacks, coloureds and Indians from our vocabulary. They do not belong in a democratic dispensation. According to their website, Bidvest deems all forms of discrimination based on race as illegal and they will not tolerate it. Furthermore, the company says: 'We do the right thing, even when no one else is looking.'
Daily Maverick
34 minutes ago
- Daily Maverick
New offshore oil and gas projects in direct conflict with SA's climate commitments
Virtually the entire coastal zone of South Africa (95%) has been leased out by the state for oil and gas exploration. How can a goal of 30% Marine Protected Areas align with 95% of the ocean under exploration leases? The ocean-loving public has justifiable concerns about plastic pollution, because it is horribly visible. Much less visible, but hugely important, is the relationship between climate change and the ocean. It's a multi-directional relationship, the ocean and us. A healthy ocean is our life support system. Half of global oxygen comes from phytoplankton growing in the ocean. The ocean removes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, which means it is working against climate change. But the more the ocean is damaged through warming and acidification (caused by warming), the less able it is to produce oxygen and absorb our carbon emissions. And then there is another threat: the ocean is a new frontier for fossil fuel mining. Virtually the entire coastal zone of South Africa (95%) has been leased out by the state for oil and gas exploration. Environmental organisations have been fighting for our lives in court. The high profile Shell-Wild Coast case opposing seismic testing led to victories for the environment in 2022 and 2024. However, perceptions that the battle against offshore oil and gas is over are misguided. In spite of wins in the high court and the Supreme Court of Appeal, Shell is still planning to go to the Constitutional Court. Similarly, the Searcher seismic case off the West Coast, from St Helena to Hondeklipbaai, was interdicted in 2022, but the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy subsequently granted new exploration permits in 2024 and 2025. Exploration by TotalEnergies EP South Africa is currently being legally contested by Green Connection and Natural Justice. These include a block between Cape Town and Cape Agulhas (see map: Blocks 5,6,7) and between Mossel Bay and Cape St Francis (see map: Blocks 11/12B). The scene is set for a battle between life and death, with environmental organisations challenging fossil fuel development in the ocean. Mineral Resources and Energy Minister Gwede Mantashe has loudly proclaimed that natural gas is a transition fuel that will take us into a sustainable (environmentally friendly) energy future. He claims it will provide an alternative to coal-based energy, and is in line with South Africa's Just Energy Transition. He hopes to set up a centralised 'war room' and dedicated courts to bypass environmentalists. Mantashe's campaign is a great gas greenwash and needs to be exposed. New oil and gas projects are in direct conflict with South Africa's climate commitments. We have agreed to net zero carbon emissions by 2050. That's not so far off. Your new baby will be 25 years old, and your granny may still be alive. And South African emissions are meant to peak in 2025 (that's now) and decline thereafter. How is that possible with new oil and gas projects coming online in the next 10 to 30 years? Our emissions are already too high. The International Energy Association and University College London have stated that we cannot meet international climate goals if new oil and gas projects are opened up. Risk of oil spills The offshore oil and gas industry also brings the risk of oil spills, which to date have not been adequately factored into mining permits. Although infrequent, they have devastating consequences. The rapid Agulhas Current along the East Coast could disperse oil as far as the West Coast. An oil spill affects the water column, the water surface, the shorelines and the seabed. It kills thousands of marine animals and destroys coastal livelihoods. A new scientific oil spill model in South Africa can predict the impacts of an oil blowout. It provides an objective, scientific tool for assessing the risks of ocean mining. Environmental organisations can now use this model to oppose offshore drilling. Even without an oil spill, offshore mining damages the ocean ecosystem. It physically damages the ocean floor and releases polluting sediments and toxic metals into the water. These activities destroy habitats, and biodiversity. Additionally, offshore oil and gas is economically risky. New markets would have to be developed in South Africa in tandem with massive infrastructure investment. This would lock South Africans into expensive dirty energy or could lead to stranded assets as the world turns away from fossil fuels. South African consumers and taxpayers would bear the brunt of this choice. At the same time, there is increasing evidence, including from the government's own models, that show that renewable energy is a cheaper, safer and faster source of energy for South Africa. Some consolation may be found in financial institutions around the world shifting away from investment in fossil fuel projects. In light of the above, why is the South African government supporting offshore mining? There is a lot of oil and gas out there — possibly 27 billion barrels of oil and 60 trillion cubic feet of gas. This may be profitable for the oil and gas industry in the short term, depending on how long it takes for global prices to decline. Cosy relationship with the gas industry And the government has a close and cosy relationship with the gas industry. The 2022 Gas Masterplan Basecase Report released by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy promotes a gas pathway for South Africa. It has been criticised for relying solely on input from the gas industry and for its lack of credible independent research. The relationship between the department and the gas industry is illustrated by the Mantashe-Ayuk bromance. NJ Ayuk is the chairperson of the non-profit Africa Energy Chamber, a trade group connecting oil and gas executives with government officials. Ayuk's Africa Energy Week is sponsored by a number of state-owned entities. Unsurprisingly, Ayuk has nothing but praise for Mantashe, describing him as a voice of reason regarding climate concerns. Mantashe, who is once again a target for investigation into criminal corruption, is on the same wavelength as Ayuk. The latter has criminal records for fraud, money laundering and maliciously targeting a journalist. Could the Mantashe-Ayuk bromance be contributing to this plan for ocean plunder? The figures don't add up. The government is deceiving us. How can a goal of 30% Marine Protected Areas align with 95% of the ocean under exploration leases? How can carbon emissions decline from 2025 if offshore oil and gas projects come online in the next 10 to 30 years? The next few years will be crucial in deciding the health of our oceans. Without this we face exponential global heating and the destruction of the ocean life support system. And yes, there are things that the ordinary person can do. The oil and gas industry knows that they face environmental and governance challenges, both globally and in South Africa. We can stop their ambitions from becoming reality, by supporting environmental organisations that are taking the legal route. These include organisations such as All Rise Attorneys, Natural Justice, Greenpeace Africa, The Green Connection, the Legal Resources Centre and 350Africa, as well as local coastal communities and organisations. Fighting for small-scale fishers A number of these organisations are also fighting for the customary rights of small-scale fishers who have been increasingly excluded from the ocean economy. This includes participation in the governance of marine resources. These organisations have already shown that, like David, they can tackle the giant. We need to inform ourselves and others about what they are doing. Everyone has a stake in this invisible threat of ocean destruction. In addition to legal challenges to offshore mining, the oceans need long-term protection. Marine Protected Area (MPAs) allow marine life to recover, climate resilience to improve and prevent mining. The government has committed to protecting 30% of South African oceans by 2030. At the moment only 5% is protected. That means that in the next five years, an additional 25% of South Africa's oceans must be declared protected areas. It sounds impossible but it's a goal worth fighting for. David Attenborough's words can inspire us to action: 'The ocean can bounce back to life. If left alone it may not just recover, but thrive beyond anything anyone alive has ever seen.' DM Dr Moraig Peden is a spokesperson for Extinction Rebellion, Cape Town. She is a retired academic with a background in environmental education.
Daily Maverick
34 minutes ago
- Daily Maverick
Samsung SA digs in heels over foldables for premium market despite global slowdown
Samsung Mobile SA updated its pricing and model availability for its new folding phones as it moves to extract value from the premium market. Samsung declined to respond to questions about the recent price increases on the Galaxy Fold 7 and Flip 7 or the disappearance of the 256GB Fold 7 variant from its South African online store. That silence is telling, especially in a market where smartphone sales are slowing and consumers are squeezed. 'Fold users typically remain the most loyal… they upgrade more, and they upgrade faster,' Samsung Mobile SA's VP for Mobile Justin Hume told Daily Maverick at the local launch. 'The base is growing every year.' Samsung is banking, once again, on deep-pocketed loyalists, an expanding ecosystem and some health tech to keep its margins intact. Foldable flatline Globally, foldable smartphones are hitting turbulence. In the first quarter of this year, foldables made up just 1.5% of total smartphone sales in Europe, with year-on-year growth of only 4%, according to Counterpoint Research. That's a sharp slowdown from previous years, and some analysts are calling it a warning sign. 'Most consumers are still not sure what a foldable phone is for,' said Counterpoint's Jan Stryjak. 'And many still have concerns about durability and longevity.' Despite this, Samsung continues to dominate the category, but that lead is shrinking. In 2024, global foldable shipments rose 12% to 17.2 million units, yet Samsung's market share fell from 54% to 45%. And 2025 isn't looking much better, with 'no further growth' forecast. Hume acknowledges these headwinds, but argues that in South Africa's premium segment, what he calls the 'R1,000 market and above' (in terms of monthly contract spend), consumer spending is still resilient. 'That market is either corporate-driven, business owners and the like, and there's this imperviousness to some of the economic conditions.' Samsung's best-selling device in the country? The S25 Ultra, outperforming even the entry-level Galaxy S25. Flipping the market For those not willing to drop over R40,000 on a Galaxy Fold 7, Samsung has released the Flip 7 FE, a more affordable version of its clamshell foldable, aimed at making foldables more accessible. At least in theory. Priced at R22,800 (another mysterious price increase for the 256GB version, but the 128GB is curiously absent), it uses in-house silicon and borrows design cues from the Flip 6 to deliver a slimmed-down, but still premium experience. 'We can now land this product at R799 [on contract] for that customer,' Hume said, referring to users on older Flip 4 contracts. 'Yes, it's not as highly specced. But compared to somebody who's only seen the Flip 3 or 4, it's night and day.' The Flip 7 FE is a potential upgrade path for users in that pricing bracket, but its pricing still places it in the high-end category and that the narrow gap between the FE and full-spec Flip 7 may limit its appeal as a more affordable alternative. A data privacy play Samsung isn't just betting on specs. A key part of the Fold 7's value proposition is its integration of KEEP (Knox Enhanced Encrypted Protection), which enables on-device encrypted storage that doesn't send sensitive user data to the cloud. 'Your smart toilet could become the point of vulnerability,' Hume quipped, highlighting Samsung's concern with AI-driven data access. 'We manage all that environment from your handset.' This is part of a broader push to challenge Apple's dominance in the privacy conversation. But convincing users that Samsung's approach is trustworthy, especially when it's 'free', is a work in progress. That free references Samsung South Africa's partnership with Aura to launch Samsung SOS+, a free 12-month emergency response service for owners of the Galaxy A56, A36, and A26 smartphones. Hume recounts a general reluctance in the target market to make use of the service. 'The market that hasn't been exposed to that is still trying to work out what exactly that means for them,' said Hume. 'It's good, but it's too good to be true.' It's all still a proof of concept, but Samsung is in a unique position to leverage its Knox platform to provide secure device tracking once users hit the panic button. Taking the fight to the wrist While Samsung leads the pack in wearables bundled with phone purchases with an estimated 80% share of network-based smartwatch sales in South Africa, the brand still struggles in standalone retail sales. 'In pure retail, we know it's an issue,' Hume admitted. 'Our competitors definitely do an incredible job.' Globally, the wearables market isn't growing as fast as it used to. In 2024, it grew just 5.4%, with projections dropping to 4.1% in 2025. Smartwatch sales declined by 4.5% in 2024 and are expected to recover only modestly this year. The big winners? Hearables, which grew by nearly 9% and remain the largest wearables category worldwide. Even so, Samsung is leaning into health as its killer wearable feature. The Galaxy Watch 8 features new sensors to measure vascular load and antioxidant levels. The Watch 8 Classic model also marks the return of the rotating bezel, and Samsung hopes to win over users by giving them full control over their health data. 'The empowerment sits with you,' Hume said. 'You control access. Not the third party.' But with all the sudden price increases and general market decline, the local market will show whether the now flat folding smartphones hit the right note. DM
