Tropical threat grows near Florida ahead of July 4th weekend. What's in store for Ocala?
Well, maybe not great news if rain over a holiday weekend isn't your thing.
An area near the U.S. coast is being monitored for slow tropical development in the coming days. The large area of interest is located a few hundred miles to the east of Florida's Space Coast, according to AccuWeather.
➤ Track all active storms
➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location
The system has a 60% chance for development over the next seven days and 20% chance over the next 48 hours.
The good news is that forecasts call for potential development to occur in the Atlantic, instead of in the Gulf, which could have sent the system over Florida.
Current forecasts call for the system of low pressure to develop near Florida or off the southeastern coast of the United States over the Fourth of July holiday weekend, or even early next week, the National Hurricane Center said. It's then expected to drift north or northeast, away from Florida.
Regardless of development, the system could bring up to 6 inches of rain to some portions of Florida through the Fourth of July weekend, according to the National Weather Service.
The next named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be Chantal.
In the eastern Pacific, Flossie has weakened into a tropical storm as it moves away from Mexico.
Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m. July 3:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop along a weakening frontal boundary near Florida or the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States by Saturday, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slow development, but a tropical or subtropical depression could form in this region over the weekend or early next week while the systemdrifts northward or northeastward.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S., particularly across the west-central Florida coast.
Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 20 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 60 percent.
"Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S., particularly across West-Central Florida," the Florida Department of Emergency Management said.
"Those heading to the beaches for the holiday weekend from northern Florida and the Alabama and Mississippi panhandles to the Carolinas are urged to monitor the forecast, as there may be rough surf and rip currents and perhaps gusty winds should a tropical depression or storm develop," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, adding, "We feel the development window is from around July 4 to early next week."
"From July 4 through early next week, conditions will favor rounds of drenching thunderstorms from parts of Florida to the coastal Carolinas, fueled by tropical moisture and lingering atmospheric instability," AccuWeather said.
According to the National Weather Service, the high temperature on July 4 will be 88 degrees and there is a 90% chance of rain during the day and an 80% chance at night.
The rain chances are 80% on July 5 and 70% on July 6.
Check this list for all the details.
The system of low pressure expected to develop over the holiday weekend is being squeezed between a high-pressure system moving east from the Ohio Valley and the Bermuda High over the central Atlantic, according to AccuWeather.
"Which high ends up exerting more influence may determine the track of the tropical area of interest, should it develop," DaSilva said.
"If the Bermuda high is stronger, it could push the tropical feature close to the U.S. coast and potentially shorten the development window.
"On the other hand, should the high building in from the Midwest be stronger, it could shunt the tropical feature more offshore over the Atlantic, where it might have more time to evolve and strengthen."
Flossie has weakened and is now a tropical storm with 60-mph winds, according to the National Hurricane Center at 2 a.m. MST.
Steady weakening is expected during the next day or so, with the system forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low later July 3.
Flossie is expected to move toward the west-northwest at 9 mph.
This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
The hatched areas on the National Hurricane Center's tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange medium, and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
"If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said.
Named storms historically develop close to the U.S. in July, especially in the Gulf and off the Atlantic coast between Florida and the Carolinas.
Later in the season, tropical storms and hurricanes develop out of tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa.
Elsewhere in the tropics, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring four tropical waves, including one in the Caribbean. A second wave in the Caribbean on July 2 has moved across Central America and is now in the eastern Pacific:
Tropical wave 1: A tropical wave has an axis along 29W in the eastern Atlantic, from 16N southward, moving west at around 11 mph.
Tropical wave 2: Another tropical wave is along 43W, south of 15N, moving westward at around 11 mph.
Tropical wave 3: A third tropical wave is along 54W, south of 15N, moving westward at around 11 mph.
Tropical wave 4: A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, south of 18N, moving westward at near 17 mph. The wave is helping to induce some scattered moderate convection over and near Haiti.
Florida weather forecast for July 3, 2025
Pensacola, western Panhandle: It is looking more likely that any impacts from a potential tropical system will remain well east of the area, according to the National Weather Service Mobile. High 93 and sunny July 3.
Tallahassee, central Panhandle: "Our typical summer showers/storms will continue through the weekend," the National Weather Service Tallahassee said. High July 3 near 92 with 50% chance for showers and thunderstorms after 1p.m.
Jacksonville, North/Northeast Florida: "Daily rounds of storms are expected through the weekend. This will elevate the flood risk for Northeast Florida, especially across north-central Florida, where amounts will be the greatest," the National Weather Service Jacksonville said. High July 3 90 with showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2 p.m.
Daytona Beach to Stuart, East/Central Florida: Regardless of tropical development, high rain chances and the potential for locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding will persist through at least Saturday, the National Weather Service Melbourne said. Highs range from 87 in Daytona Beach to 86 in Stuart.
West Palm Beach to Naples, South/Southwest Florida: Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms today may again result in localized flooding, especially over east coast metro areas. Expect another warm day with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to around 90, the National Weather Service Miami said. Highs range from 90 in West Palm Beach to 86 in Naples.
Fort Myers to Sarasota, West/Southwest Florida: Showers and storms expected throughout the day. First near the coast in the morning, then shifting inland late, the National Weather Service Tampa Bay said. Highs today range from 84 in Fort Myers to 81 in Sarasota.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA sadi.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
: for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific.
: for storms in the Northwest Pacific.
: for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.
We will update our tropical weather coverage daily.
Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.
Jim Ross contributed
(This story was updated to include additional information)
This article originally appeared on Ocala Star-Banner: Ocala, Florida weather for July 4 weekend; latest on tropical system
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
26 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Grove Fire: Evacuations ordered for Butte County vegetation fire
A vegetation fire burning in Butte County has prompted an evacuation order, according to the sheriff's office.
Associated Press
an hour ago
- Associated Press
Photos of flooded Texas Hill Country, a region dotted with century-old summer camps
Months worth of heavy rain fell in a matter of hours on Texas Hill Country, Kerr County Sheriff Larry Leitha said. The region is dotted with century-old summer camps that draw thousands of kids annually. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick said about 23 girls attending Camp Mystic, a Christian camp along the Guadalupe River, were unaccounted for Friday afternoon. ___ This is a photo gallery curated by AP photo editors.
Associated Press
an hour ago
- Associated Press
At least 13 dead in Texas floods and more than 20 children missing from a girls summer camp
KERRVILLE, Texas (AP) — Months worth of heavy rain fell in a matter of hours on Texas Hill Country, leaving at least 13 people dead and many more unaccounted for Friday, including about 20 girls attending a summer camp, as search teams conducted boat and helicopter rescues in fast-moving floodwaters. Desperate pleas peppered social media as loved ones sought any information about people caught in the flood zone. At least 10 inches (25 centimeters) of rain poured down overnight in central Kerr County, causing flash flooding of the Guadalupe River. Authorities stressed that the situation was still developing and that the death toll could change, with rescue operations ongoing for an unspecified number missing. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick said six to 10 bodies had been found so far. Around the same time, Kerr County Sheriff Larry Leitha reported that 13 people had died in the flooding. 'Some are adults, some are children,' Patrick said during a news conference. 'Again, we don't know where those bodies came from.' Judge Rob Kelly, the chief elected official in Kerr County, said authorities were still working to identify those who died. 'Most of them, we don't know who they are,' Kelly said during a news conference. Pleading for information after flash flood On the Kerr County sheriff's office Facebook page, people pleaded for help finding their loved ones and posted pictures of them. Patrick said at least 400 people were on the ground helping in the response. Nine rescue teams, 14 helicopters and 12 drones were being used in the search, and Patrick said some people were being rescued from trees. About 23, out of the roughly 750 girls, attending Camp Mystic were among those who were unaccounted for Friday, Patrick said. Search crews were doing 'whatever we can do to find everyone we can,' he said. At Hunt, where the Guadalupe forks, a river gauge recorded a 22 foot rise (6.7 meters) in just about two hours, according to Bob Fogarty, meteorologist with the National Weather Service's Austin/San Antonio office. Fogarty said the gauge failed after recording a level of 29 and a half feet (9 meters). 'The water's moving so fast, you're not going to recognize how bad it is until it's on top of you,' Forgarty said. 'Pitch black wall of death' In Ingram, Erin Burgess woke up to thunder and rain at 3:30 a.m. Just 20 minutes later, water was pouring into her home directly across from the river, she said. She described an agonizing hour clinging to a tree and waiting for the water to recede enough so they could walk up the hill to a neighbor's home. 'My son and I floated to a tree where we hung onto it, and my boyfriend and my dog floated away. He was lost for a while, but we found them,' she said. Of her 19-year-old son, Burgess said: 'Thankfully he's over 6 feet tall. That's the only thing that saved me, was hanging on to him.' Matthew Stone, 44, of Kerrville, said police came knocking on doors at 5:30 a.m. but that he had received no emergency warning on his phone. 'We got no emergency alert. There was nothing,' Stone said. Then: 'a pitch black wall of death.' Stone said police used his paddle boat to help rescue a neighbor. Stone said he and the rescuers thought they heard someone yelling 'help!' from the water but couldn't see anyone. 'Everything was done to give them a heads up' The forecast had called for rain, with a flood watch upgraded to a warning overnight for at least 30,000 people. But totals in some places exceeded expectations, Fogarty said. Patrick noted that the potential for heavy rain and flooding covered a large area. 'Everything was done to give them a heads up that you could have heavy rain, and we're not exactly sure where it's going to land,' Patrick said. 'Obviously as it got dark last night, we got into the wee morning of the hours, that's when the storm started to zero in.' Asked about how people were notified in Kerr County so that they could get to safety, Kelly said, 'We do not have a warning system.' When reporters pushed on why more precautions weren't taken, he responded: 'Rest assured, no one knew this kind of flood was coming.' 'We have floods all the time,' he added. 'This is the most dangerous river valley in the United States.' Popular tourism area prone to flooding It's in an area of Texas known as 'flash flood alley' because of the hills' thin layer of soil, said Austin Dickson, CEO of the Community Foundation of the Texas Hill Country, which was collecting donations to help nonprofits responding to the disaster. 'When it rains, water doesn't soak into the soil,' Dickson said. 'It rushes down the hill.' Nonetheless, the river tourism industry is a key part of the Hill Country economy, said Dickson. Well-known, century-old summer camps bring in kids from all over Texas and the country, Dickson said. Between Hunt and Ingram are many river homes and cabins for rent. 'It's generally a very tranquil river with really beautiful clear blue water that people have been attracted to for generations,' Dickson said. Deaths in New Jersey blamed on thunderstorms The flooding in Texas occurred as severe weather moved through central New Jersey, where thunderstorms were blamed for at least three deaths. Among them were two men in Plainfield who died after a tree fell onto a vehicle they were traveling in during the height of a storm there, according to a city Facebook post. The city canceled its planned July Fourth parade, concert and fireworks show. ___ Fingerhut reported from Des Moines, Iowa. Associated Press reporters Adrian Sanz in Memphis, Tennessee, Hannah Schoenbaum in Salt Lake City, and Susan Haigh in Norwich, Connecticut, contributed.
