Big-budget clash with south films to test Bollywood mettle
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Mumbai: A clash for box office share between big-budget Hindi and southern films in the next few months will put the theatrical revival of Bollywood to the test, say producers and trade analysts.Three big southern films-Coolie (Tamil), Kantara: Chapter 1 (Kannada) and The Raja Saab (Telugu)-are scheduled for release in the second half of 2025. Their release dates clash directly with Bollywood movies War 2, Ikkis, Sunny Sanskari Ki Tulsi Kumari and Durandhar.With each of these films having an estimated budget of ₹150-400 crore, the stakes are high.The second half of 2025 began on a promising note for Bollywood with the unexpected success of the mid-budget Saiyaara, which has raked in ₹175 crore in box-office collections since its July 18 release. But the market dynamics will be different for the upcoming releases. This is the first time since the pandemic when the release dates of big southern films are clashing with Hindi films of similar scale."Post-pandemic, the lines between regional and Hindi films have blurred," said producer and film business expert Girish Johar. "Today, audiences want the best content. So, if there is a formidable southern film aimed at a pan-India audience ... it does impact the box office potential of the competing Hindi film."Bollywood producers often avoid clashes with southern films, as loyal audiences of southern films shun Hindi movies to watch their favourite stars on screen. A blockbuster pan-India film form the south could reduce the box office potential of a competing Hindi film by 10-20%, according to trade experts."When tentpole films clash, the impact at the box office is far deeper than just opening-day collections," said Suniel Wadhwa, co-founder and director of Karmic Films. "Screens are shared. Show timings are compromised. In north India alone, a high-stakes clash can mean a ₹20-40 crore loss in revenues for each film."Revenue from digital, satellite and overseas rights will also take a hit, say distributors. They suggest a solo release of a big-budget Hindi or southern film as a practical solution."A well-timed solo release can improve legs at the box office, optimise holdover weeks and elevate a film from a ₹300 crore hit to a ₹500 crore blockbuster," said Wadhwa of Karmic Films."Clashes are always bad for business," said Rajesh R Nair, the producer of Hindi films such as Kaminey and Adipurush. Southern films are tracking well, especially Kantara: Chapter 1, one of the most awaited sequels, he said. He also expects strong competition to the upcoming Bollywood movies from Rajinikanth's Coolie and the Prabhas-starrer horror-comedy: The Raja Saab.Some trade analysts believe that the timing of these releases may work in their favour, as these will be released on public holidays when footfalls are usually high in theatres."Also, the genres of these competing films are different. These films will be accommodated," said Girish Wankhede, a movie trade analyst. But in the long run, he said "only the content of these films will work".While the success of Saiyaara was encouraging, theatres also recorded noteworthy contributions from Hollywood films such as Superman, Jurassic World: Rebirth and The Fantastic Four: First Steps. Apart from Indian films, Hollywood movies such as Zootopia 2 and Avatar: Fire and Ash are also scheduled for release in the second half of 2025.According to media and entertainment research firm Ormax Media, the second half of 2025 is likely to contribute 52% to the all-India box office revenue of ₹13,500 crore estimated for 2025.
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