Democrats go nuclear in redistricting arms race

Axios

8 hours ago

Top Democrats are speaking — and acting — in increasingly existential terms over the audacious Trump-backed push to redraw Texas' congressional map ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Why it matters: The proposed Texas map is designed to net the GOP up to five House seats — potentially enough to decide the majority for President Trump's Republicans in his final two years in office.
For many Democrats, this moment is an inflection point in the party's Trump-era identity crisis — one that could determine whether "fighters" or "folders" carry the torch into 2028.
"This is a war. We are at war. And that's why the gloves are off, and I say bring it on," New York Gov. Kathy Hochul declared at a press conference Monday, accusing Texas Republicans of a "legal insurrection."
Zoom in: More than 50 Democratic lawmakers fled Texas on Sunday — fanning out to deep-blue Illinois, New York and Massachusetts — to prevent the GOP-controlled legislature from voting on the new map.
Texas' Republican Gov. Greg Abbott has threatened them with daily $500 fines, felony bribery charges if the fines are paid for by donations, and the possibility of removal from office.
The Texas state House issued civil arrest warrants for the Democrats who fled the state, though the warrants are only enforceable inside Texas.
Zoom out: Outside Texas, key Democratic governors have launched an aggressive counteroffensive to try to neutralize the GOP's redistricting push.
In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom is eyeing a November special election that would sideline the state's independent redistricting commission and ask voters to approve a new, legislature-drawn map favoring Democrats.
In New York, Hochul said Democrats have "no choice" but to pursue a constitutional amendment to authorize new maps — though it wouldn't appear on the ballot until 2027 at the earliest.
In Illinois, where the congressional map is already heavily gerrymandered, Gov. J.B. Pritzker has vowed to protect fleeing Texas Democrats and left the door open to further revisions of the state's map.
Between the lines: Newsom, who's made no secret of his presidential ambitions, has openly accused Trump of "rigging" the midterms and suggested California could redraw its map to eliminate all nine GOP-held seats.
His push for a referendum in just three months will be a legal and political high-wire act that — if successful — could become the defining achievement of his career.
"If this works and Dems win the House in 2026 by <5 seats, 'I saved us from a second MAGA Republican trifecta' is a hell of a platform for Newsom to run [for president] on in 2028," tweeted Democratic pollster Adam Carlson.
The intrigue: Hochul, who is running for re-election in 2026, has emerged as an unlikely face of the Democratic resistance.
She called Monday for disbanding New York's independent redistricting commission and embracing partisan hardball, telling reporters that she's "tired of fighting this fight with my hand tied behind my back."
"I cannot ignore that the playing field has changed dramatically, and shame on us if we ignore that fact and cling tight to the vestiges of the past," Hochul said.
The bottom line: Both sides are keenly aware that a Democratic victory in 2026 would grind Trump's agenda to a halt and potentially lead to his third impeachment.