Analysts raise Nvidia price targets after Trump's China chip decision. One sees $5 trillion market cap ahead

CNBC

3 days ago

Nvidia cleared a key hurdle that restricted the sale of its H20 chips to China, a move that gave some analysts on Wall Street room to raise their forecasts for the stock. The Jensen Huang-led company whose chips power artificial intelligence said earlier Tuesday that it hopes to soon resume shipping H20 general processing units to China after the U.S. lifted restrictions placed on their sale to Beijing in April. "The U.S. government has assured Nvidia that licenses will be granted, and Nvidia hopes to start deliveries soon," the company said in a Tuesday blog post . The statement helped lift an array of other semiconductor manufacturers as well. The news helped ignite a wave of optimism from analysts, with one going so far as to forecast that Nvidia could reach a $5 trillion market value, after only recently having achieved a $4 trillion capitalization for the first time. NVDA YTD mountain Nvidia stock in 2025. Shares have advanced almost 28% so far in 2025, while the S & P 500 has risen less than 7%, according to FactSet data. Here's the latest analyst commentary and forecasts on Nvidia. Melius Research raises price target to $235 per share Analyst Ben Reitzes said that Nvidia could be headed for a $5 trillion market cap, and said "getting back in China after a mid-April ban is a huge tailwind" for the company. Reitzes' forecast calls for more than 43% upside from Monday's $164.07 close. "The news not only means that Nvidia's revenues accelerate even more sequentially in the back half of FY26, but it also adds a huge tailwind to growth in F1H27 - making FY27 a much bigger growth year than the previous consensus of just 26%," the analyst said. "We wouldn't be surprised if all or most of the $8B run rate/quarter in lost China sales came back completely by F4Q26 given pent up demand and boosted FY27 overall revenue growth to 38% y/y after 59% growth in FY26." Oppenheimer hikes price target to $200 per share Analyst Rick Schafer's forecast implies about 22% upside for Nvidia stock. "We see several structural tailwinds driving sustained outsized top-line growth including generative AI, DC/AI accelerators and autonomous vehicles. We believe these factors justify its valuation," the analyst said. Bernstein reiterates outperform rating and $185 per share price target Analyst Stacy Rasgon's outlook implies nearly 13% upside for Nvidia stock. Rasgon said that while Nvidia's second-quarter results likely won't see the company ship enough chips to catch up on lost revenue, the chipmaker is likely to see benefits in the second half that ends next January. "Beyond the revenue/earnings recovery, we are glad to see NVDA able to compete at least somewhat in China as it limits potential for more structural risks," Rasgon wrote. "We always saw the H20 ban as unnecessary and, frankly, somewhat nonsensical as performance of the part is already low, and well below already-available Chinese alternatives; a ban would simply hand the AI market in China over to Huawei as well as encourage the growth of local ecosystem alternatives (with a risk that they filter out of China over time)." "[E]very ~$10B of recovered NVDA China revenues would drive roughly 25 cents in additional EPS," the analyst added. "Therefore, capturing an incremental $15-$20B in China revenue through the rest of the fiscal year would provide 40-50 cents in EPS upside for FY2026, all else being equal (10%+ or so accretion on current consensus?)." Evercore ISI reiterates Nvidia as top pick The firm's $190 per share price target calls for about 16% upside. Analyst Mark Lipacis forecast that Nvidia could see as much as $10 billion in near-term revenue if all the restrictions on H20 chip sales to China are removed. "Assuming 70-75% [gross margins] on $2.75bn of inventories would imply about $10bn in revenues anticipated from those written down inventories on hand, but since the product was written down, that would suggest much higher gross margins on that $10bn of revenues," the analyst said. Citigroup cautiously optimistic Analyst Atif Malik's also has a $190 per share price target on Nvidia. "We believe investors should take a 'wait and see' approach before adding China contribution back to their models," the analyst said. "That said, China is an important market for Nvidia in gaming and networking and it helps to sell some compute chips."