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CNBC
15-07-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Analysts raise Nvidia price targets after Trump's China chip decision. One sees $5 trillion market cap ahead
Nvidia cleared a key hurdle that restricted the sale of its H20 chips to China, a move that gave some analysts on Wall Street room to raise their forecasts for the stock. The Jensen Huang-led company whose chips power artificial intelligence said earlier Tuesday that it hopes to soon resume shipping H20 general processing units to China after the U.S. lifted restrictions placed on their sale to Beijing in April. "The U.S. government has assured Nvidia that licenses will be granted, and Nvidia hopes to start deliveries soon," the company said in a Tuesday blog post . The statement helped lift an array of other semiconductor manufacturers as well. The news helped ignite a wave of optimism from analysts, with one going so far as to forecast that Nvidia could reach a $5 trillion market value, after only recently having achieved a $4 trillion capitalization for the first time. NVDA YTD mountain Nvidia stock in 2025. Shares have advanced almost 28% so far in 2025, while the S & P 500 has risen less than 7%, according to FactSet data. Here's the latest analyst commentary and forecasts on Nvidia. Melius Research raises price target to $235 per share Analyst Ben Reitzes said that Nvidia could be headed for a $5 trillion market cap, and said "getting back in China after a mid-April ban is a huge tailwind" for the company. Reitzes' forecast calls for more than 43% upside from Monday's $164.07 close. "The news not only means that Nvidia's revenues accelerate even more sequentially in the back half of FY26, but it also adds a huge tailwind to growth in F1H27 - making FY27 a much bigger growth year than the previous consensus of just 26%," the analyst said. "We wouldn't be surprised if all or most of the $8B run rate/quarter in lost China sales came back completely by F4Q26 given pent up demand and boosted FY27 overall revenue growth to 38% y/y after 59% growth in FY26." Oppenheimer hikes price target to $200 per share Analyst Rick Schafer's forecast implies about 22% upside for Nvidia stock. "We see several structural tailwinds driving sustained outsized top-line growth including generative AI, DC/AI accelerators and autonomous vehicles. We believe these factors justify its valuation," the analyst said. Bernstein reiterates outperform rating and $185 per share price target Analyst Stacy Rasgon's outlook implies nearly 13% upside for Nvidia stock. Rasgon said that while Nvidia's second-quarter results likely won't see the company ship enough chips to catch up on lost revenue, the chipmaker is likely to see benefits in the second half that ends next January. "Beyond the revenue/earnings recovery, we are glad to see NVDA able to compete at least somewhat in China as it limits potential for more structural risks," Rasgon wrote. "We always saw the H20 ban as unnecessary and, frankly, somewhat nonsensical as performance of the part is already low, and well below already-available Chinese alternatives; a ban would simply hand the AI market in China over to Huawei as well as encourage the growth of local ecosystem alternatives (with a risk that they filter out of China over time)." "[E]very ~$10B of recovered NVDA China revenues would drive roughly 25 cents in additional EPS," the analyst added. "Therefore, capturing an incremental $15-$20B in China revenue through the rest of the fiscal year would provide 40-50 cents in EPS upside for FY2026, all else being equal (10%+ or so accretion on current consensus?)." Evercore ISI reiterates Nvidia as top pick The firm's $190 per share price target calls for about 16% upside. Analyst Mark Lipacis forecast that Nvidia could see as much as $10 billion in near-term revenue if all the restrictions on H20 chip sales to China are removed. "Assuming 70-75% [gross margins] on $2.75bn of inventories would imply about $10bn in revenues anticipated from those written down inventories on hand, but since the product was written down, that would suggest much higher gross margins on that $10bn of revenues," the analyst said. Citigroup cautiously optimistic Analyst Atif Malik's also has a $190 per share price target on Nvidia. "We believe investors should take a 'wait and see' approach before adding China contribution back to their models," the analyst said. "That said, China is an important market for Nvidia in gaming and networking and it helps to sell some compute chips."
CNBC
29-06-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Nvidia shares retake AI leadership role. Wall Street is bullish going forward
Wall Street investors believe that Nvidia 's next rally to even higher highs is only a matter of time. The chipmaker ended last week by hitting fresh all-time highs three days in a row. But this bullish showing stands in contrast to the doubt that has hovered around the stock for much of the year. NVDA YTD mountain NVDA YTD chart Nvidia — alongside the other major semiconductor names — had a rough start to 2025, as fears around China export controls weighed heavily on sentiment. For most of the past year, shares have traded within a flat range without any kind of solid move higher. "The sentiment had definitely turned on AI semis in general, and Nvidia is kind of that poster boy child as far as the AI semi trade is concerned," said CFRA analyst Angelo Zino in an interview with CNBC. "Sometimes with these big megacap tech stocks and names that have had incredible runs, you do have to digest those gains." Another reason for Nvidia's recent lag may be that the stock has been a victim of its own success, said Gene Munster, co-founder of Deepwater Asset Management. He added that investors have been concerned that Nvidia's "remarkable growth story" over the past few years wasn't sustainable in the long term. "Despite all the good things that are going on with AI, it's still hard for Nvidia investors to sleep well at night," he told CNBC. But Nvidia's performance took a turn last week. On Wednesday, investors sent the stock up 4% to a new all-time closing record. Friday's session saw a gain of nearly 2% — marking the stock's fifth consecutive positive session. Nvidia's chart pattern also lends credence to claims that the stock could continue to rally from here. Nvidia recently formed what's known as a golden cross — when its 50-day moving average crosses above its 200-day moving average — implying that a long-term bull market may be emerging. Jordan Klein, an analyst at Mizuho, attributed Nvidia's rally last week to investors closing the gap between the stock and its competitors. Going forward, he expects another substantial spike when Nvidia releases its next earnings report, around the end of August. Increasing demand trends and the rollout of Nvidia's new Blackwell chip both point to higher revisions from the company. "In late August they'll guide their October revenue, which I think could be notably higher than expected," Klein told CNBC. "It's driven by Blackwell volumes ramping and those really start to scale up in July, and then more in August, probably into September." Zino added that while a lot of the hype around Blackwell's launch is already likely priced into the stock, there's still more room for shares to go higher. "You're at a point in time for Nvidia where now they're going to scale up Blackwell, and now they're going to get some of that margin expansion and some of those benefits here over the next couple of quarters," he said. "And I think that's a big reason why the stock is working as well." Like Klein and Zino, Munster is also bullish on Nvidia's forward trajectory. He said Nvidia's valuation still looks compelling, even at these new all-time highs. "It's probably the most attractive large-cap tech company on a price-to-growth basis," he said. While some investors have pointed to hyperscalers building their own custom chips as a potential headwind for Nvidia, Munster said this is an unlikely theme due to the cost of building chips in house. Munster said he remains confident about Nvidia's outlook since he believes the industry is still early in its buildout of AI. As evidence, he pointed to the multimillion dollar bonuses Meta has offered to poach OpenAI employees as the Facebook owner tries to supercharge its development efforts.
