Nifty faces key resistance at 25,200 amid geopolitical tensions
Following Friday's rally, Nifty now faces a crucial test near 25,200. Analysts say a sustained move above this level could pave the way for a further rise toward 25,700–25,900, but also caution that geopolitical uncertainties may continue to inject volatility into the markets. On the downside, support at 24,500 remains crucial with stock-specific action in banks, midcaps, and select names like M&M, BEL, and CAMS offering trading opportunities.
RUCHIT JAIN
VICE PRESIDENT, MOTILAL OSWAL FINANCIAL SERVICES
Where is Nifty headed this week?
Geopolitical tensions have led to a consolidation phase in Indian markets over the past month. However, this appears to be a time-wise corrective phase within an uptrend, with Nifty holding above its support zone of 24,500– 24,450—a crucial near-term level. The immediate hurdle for the index lies in the 25,200–25,250 range. A breakout above this could propel the index towards 25,500–25,700. On the downside, 24,800 is the immediate support, followed by positional support at 24,450.
Trading strategies for the week:
Traders are advised to focus on stocks that have shown relative strength over the past month. Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) has given a breakout, signalling a bullish trend. Exchange-related stocks such as MCX, and defence names like BEL, BEML, and BDL are expected to extend their uptrend in the short term.
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PRITESH MEHTA
EVP – INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES, YES SECURITIES
Where is Nifty headed this week?
Despite elevated global uncertainty, inter-market signals suggest relative strength for Indian equities. Friday's 300-point rally was a welcome shift, as the market had been struggling to find a trending move. More importantly, the index managed to sustain its gains without cooling off. Our customised Top 10 Nifty index gained momentum after weeks of consolidation, indicating strength in large caps. Our breadth indicator also showed a bullish crossover, with ~58% of index constituents displaying a bullish bias. An ABC breakout, along with a double-top buy signal on the Point & Figure chart, combined with improving breadth, suggests a potential move towards the 25,700 zone.
Trading strategies for the week:
Improved breadth, renewed traction in banks and financials, and support in the Midcap 100 index around its 10-column average all point to further upside. Among sectors, our customised Capital Markets and Defence indices are bouncing from support. BEL, CAMS, and CDSL are showing multiple bullish patterns and could rally 10–14% in the coming weeks. The ratio of IT to Nifty has followed through on a bullish turtle breakout, indicating a potential comeback for select IT stocks.
ARPAN SHAH
HEAD – TECHNICAL RESEARCH, MONARCH NETWORTH CAPITAL
Where is Nifty headed this week?
Nifty has been consolidating within the 24,500–25,200 range for past six weeks, lacking a clear directional trend. Despite absorbing geopolitical shocks, including the India-Pakistan conflict, the market has managed to hold key support levels. Friday's session ended with a strong bullish candlestick formation, indicating that a breakout above 25,200 could trigger short-covering and open upside targets of 25,600–25,900. The banking index, which has been consolidating near its all-time high, is expected to move in line with the benchmark, with upside targets of 57,200–58,000.
Trading strategies for the week:
The midcap index has formed a strong reversal at its breakout level. Traders can consider buying for upside targets of 13,400–13,600. The IT index has been gradually inching up, and offers a favourable risk-reward setup. Investors may accumulate HCL Tech, Kaynes, and R Systems at current levels. PSU bank stocks, including SBI and Bank of Baroda, have seen profit booking post the RBI rate cut and are now near support, both can be added at current prices. Defence stocks, having rallied sharply in the last 3–4 months, now present an unfavourable risk-reward and are best avoided. Among mid- and small-caps, CGCL, Praj Industries, GPIL, and Bharat Rasayan are good accumulation bets at current levels.
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