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Deadly Texas flood: Could California face a similar disaster?

Deadly Texas flood: Could California face a similar disaster?

The catastrophic weekend flash flooding in Central Texas has killed nearly 80 people, with dozens missing and a death toll that's likely to rise. Despite occurring in a region known as ' Flash Flood Alley,' the sheer volume of rain — 6 to 10 inches in just three hours — combined with an unprecedented surge of the Guadalupe River, proved devastating. The river rose more than 20 feet within hours, transforming from a tranquil waterway into a torrent with flow rates greater than Niagara Falls.
It's a scene that may feel unthinkable in California, but is it? Extreme flash floods happen less often here than in Texas, but they do occur and could become more common as the climate warms. A national flood risk analysis highlights California's coastal mountain basins and Sierra Nevada foothills among America's flash flood 'hot spots,' alongside the Texas Hill Country where this tragedy unfolded.
The common ingredients are steep terrain, narrow canyons, hard soils that resist absorbing water, bursts of torrential rain and communities built directly in harm's way. But California adds another layer of risk: wildfire burn scars. After a fire, slopes lose their vegetation and can shed a deadly wave of mud, rocks, trees and water in what's known as a debris flow. Flash floods are fast-moving water surges that rapidly raise river level, while debris flows are thicker, slower, and often triggered by smaller storms hitting burned, unstable slopes. Both strike with little warning.
Southern California's San Gabriel and San Bernardino mountains are especially prone to this kind of disaster. On Christmas Day 2003, heavy rain on fire-scarred slopes triggered debris flows that tore through campgrounds and homes. At Waterman Canyon near San Bernardino, five adults and nine children were killed when mud and debris swept through a church camp, an event later linked in part to the design of a nearby Caltrans road.
Parts of the coastal range face similar dangers. In January 2018, an intense thunderstorm over the Santa Ynez Mountains dropped more than half an inch of rain in just 15 minutes. The storm triggered a deadly debris flow from the Thomas Fire burn scar that tore through Montecito (Santa Barbara County), killing 23 people.
Most of these California disasters have happened during the wet winter season, when large-scale storms fueled by atmospheric rivers are typically forecast days in advance. The Texas floods were so deadly in part because of their tropical moisture source and extreme rainfall rates. Totals nearing 2 feet required an air mass loaded with moisture and a slow-moving system that allowed storms to train repeatedly over the same area. In that case, the flooding was driven by the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry.
California is less likely to tap into that kind of tropical moisture, but it can happen. Monsoonal flow in July and August sometimes brings tropical air masses northward, triggering strong thunderstorms with heavy rain, especially in the Sierra Nevada. The east slopes of the Sierra, including Alpine and Mono counties, have seen monsoonal storms wash out roads and campgrounds with sudden flash floods. The risk is even higher in the state's high deserts, where fast-developing storms can drop torrential rain that the hard ground simply can't absorb fast enough.
While California may be less prone to tropical deluges like Texas saw, the ingredients for sudden, deadly floods are here, especially on steep, fire-scarred slopes.
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Hurricane season warning signs pile up. Brace for a dangerous August.
Hurricane season warning signs pile up. Brace for a dangerous August.

Yahoo

time7 hours ago

  • Yahoo

Hurricane season warning signs pile up. Brace for a dangerous August.

The hurricane map in the Atlantic Ocean may be nearly blank now, but forecasters say that may not last much longer, as several signs point to an uptick in activity across the basin. "The tropical environment should become more conducive for Atlantic hurricane activity in the next few weeks," said Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach in a July 24 email to USA TODAY. WPLG-TV hurricane expert Michael Lowry agreed with this prediction, telling USA TODAY that "we're already seeing longer-range forecast models start to perk up... The deep Atlantic tropical waves coming from Africa have been peppier this week, and July 24's long-range forecast models jumped from a generally quiet next 15 days to a much busier look for the first part of August." Has it been a slow start to season? With three named tropical storms (Andrea, Barry and Chantal) so far, the number of storms is actually above average for this time of year. 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On average, our first hurricane forms in the Atlantic on August 11." What's the forecast for the first couple weeks of August? Hazelton explained that "large-scale conditions should become a little more favorable as a Madden-Julian Oscillation pulse crosses the Pacific and moves into the Atlantic, enhancing large-scale rising motion and reducing shear. Conditions should especially become more favorable the 2nd-3rd week of August, which aligns pretty well with the long-term climatology of when the Atlantic starts to become more active." Madden-Julian Oscillation pulse: The 2025 hurricane season is off to a perplexing start "So in short, July should end with little fanfare, but we'll need to watch for an uptick in activity come the first and second week of August," Lowry said. What is the Madden-Julian Oscillation? Something to be watching over the next few weeks is the passage of the rising branch of the Madden-Julian Oscillation or MJO, largely a nonplayer so far this hurricane season, Lowry explained to USA TODAY. The MJO is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, noted Climate Prediction Center meteorologist Jon Gottschalck in an online report. The MJO influences tropical cyclone activity in both the eastern Pacific and Atlantic basins during the Northern Hemisphere summer. "As we head into early August, the Madden-Julian Oscillation should be moving into more favorable phases for Atlantic hurricane activity as well," Klotzbach said. "Typically phases 1-3 are when the Atlantic really ramps up." He said the latest European model forecast has the MJO moving into phase 1 the first week in August. Are waters warm enough for hurricanes to develop? Hurricanes need warm water to form, preferably 79 degrees or above, and water temperatures in a key section of the Atlantic are starting to warm up: "One of the biggest changes I've observed in recent weeks is a considerable warming of the so-called Main Development Region (MDR) of the Atlantic above its seasonal averages," Lowry said. "To open the hurricane season in June, waters across this bellwether part of the Atlantic where most of our strongest hurricanes get their start were running average to even below average." He said that during this past week, MDR water temperatures have surged to the 7th warmest in the satellite record (back to 1981), running only slightly cooler than 2017 and 2005 at this point in the season. At the same time, he said the belt of water just north of the tropics has cooled since the start of the season, creating a more conducive orientation that favors rising air and storminess in the tropical Atlantic. "The central MDR looks reasonably primed for development," noted Weather Trader meteorologist Ryan Maue in a Substack post. What's the status of Saharan Dust? How about the Bermuda High? Dust billowing out of the Sahara Desert in Africa can impact Atlantic hurricanes. According to the University of Miami, the Saharan Air Layer – a mass of dry, hot, and dust-laden air that forms over the Sahara Desert during the late spring, summer, and early fall, and moves over the tropical North Atlantic Ocean – can suppress tropical cyclone formation. "As far as the Saharan dust, it's been the lowest on record so far this hurricane season. This could actually be a symptom of less robust tropical waves that transport the dust across the Atlantic, but over the past week, the waves have been noticeably stronger," Lowry said. "Dust seasonally drops off quickly in August, so, except for sporadic outbreaks, Saharan dust becomes less of a factor in August and September," he added. As for the Bermuda High, a strong area of high pressure in the Atlantic, Hazelton said, "the stronger Bermuda High that has been present this summer (and brought a lot of the moisture into the U.S. that has enhanced the flooding) can also bring down more dry air from near Europe into the Atlantic, suppressing hurricane formation. We'll see if that pattern changes as we head into mid August." Rough hurricane season still expected The 2025 season is still expected to have 13 to 19 named storms, and six to 10 of those will become hurricanes, according to a preseason forecast from NOAA. The agency's website underscores the importance of being prepared regardless of the hurricane season forecast. The ultimate preparedness checklist: How to prepare your house for a hurricane This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hurricane season 2025 is about to heat up, forecast says

Map Shows Where 100-Year Floods Have Hit Across the US Over Past Year
Map Shows Where 100-Year Floods Have Hit Across the US Over Past Year

Newsweek

time2 days ago

  • Newsweek

Map Shows Where 100-Year Floods Have Hit Across the US Over Past Year

Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. The term "100-year flood" implies that the event is a rare occurrence; however, dozens of such storms have inundated the United States over the past year alone, prompting concern that they are occurring more frequently as the Earth's climate continues to warm. Why It Matters Flooding is the second-deadliest weather hazard in the U.S., next to extreme heat. Devastating flood events have made headlines numerous times this year, including a 1,000-year atmospheric river event that hit the Midwest and South in April and the deadly floods that inundated Central Texas over the July 4th weekend. The frequency of such flooding rainstorms, which often go hand-in-hand with death and destruction, is alarming. What's even more concerning is that AccuWeather meteorologist Alex DaSilva told Newsweek that these events are happening more frequently. What To Know In 2024, dozens of 100-year rainstorms struck the U.S. Each point is marked on the map below, created by Colorado State University. The points marking each event are widespread, with only a few states escaping unscathed. Last year wasn't a one-time occurrence, either. This year is also "shaping up to be one of the most flood-impacted summers on record in the United States," AccuWeather reported. A map from Colorado State University shows where 100-year rainstorm events were documented in 2024. A map from Colorado State University shows where 100-year rainstorm events were documented in 2024. Colorado State University What Is a 100-Year Flood? The United States Geological Service (USGS) describes the term "100-year flood" as an attempt "to simplify the definition of a flood that statistically has a 1-percent chance of occurring in any given year." Where Did 100-Year Rainstorms Hit in 2024? On the CSU map, countless points pepper the Eastern Seaboard around North Carolina and South Carolina after Hurricane Helene struck in September. Others show the devastating impact of the summer monsoon season in New Mexico, which caused deserts to flood and cars to become stranded as water washed over a highway. Vermont faced catastrophic floods in late July. Central Texas, known as Flash Flood Alley, experienced several 100-year rainstorms last year, as did Florida, with a scattershot of points dated as occurring during the Atlantic hurricane season. There was also an onslaught of precipitation that hit South Dakota in June 2024, as well as a similar storm that measured as a 100-year event at several locations in Missouri in November, among others. Only a few states emerged unscathed, including Iowa, Wisconsin, Oregon, Washington, and Massachusetts, but most of the U.S. experienced some form of severe flooding precipitation last year. Why Are 100-Year Floods Occurring More Frequently? The map's creator, Russ Schumacher, a professor of atmospheric sciences at CSU and a CSU climatologist, told Newsweek that improved technology, such as radar, provides better access to data, which can make it seem as if the flood events are happening more frequently. However, he also stressed the impact of climate change. "The physics of climate change tells us that we should see these extreme events more frequently," he said. As the atmosphere grows warmer through global warming, its ability to hold moisture increases, DaSilva told Newsweek. "This is why in the wintertime, we typically don't see too much flash flooding in the wintertime," DaSilva said. "It's too cold, and there's snow, of course, but it's hard to get the moisture content you need for heavy rain events in the wintertime because it's cooler out. In the summertime obviously the temperature is above freezing, but the atmosphere can hold more water content. There's more moisture to squeeze out." Which States Have Increased Flood Risk? As the atmosphere's ability to hold moisture increases, DaSilva told Newsweek that states in the Ohio and Tennessee valleys are becoming wetter, while areas like California are becoming drier. What People Are Saying AccuWeather meteorologist Alex DaSilva told Newsweek: "When the atmosphere is getting warmer as a what it's doing is making summer warmer and the shoulder seasons warmer as well. What's happening is those seasons, especially in the summertime, the [atmosphere's] ability to hold more moisture is going up as well." DaSilva added: "It doesn't guarantee we will see more rain over a certain area, it rains, it's going to rain heavier." The USGS in a webpage about 100-year flood events: "In other words, over the course of 1 million years, these events would be expected to occur 10,000 times. But, just because it rained 10 inches in one day last year doesn't mean it can't rain 10 inches in one day again this year." What Happens Next As the probability of heavy rain events increases, people are advised to have a flood plan in place before such an event occurs in their area. People should also never drive on a flooded roadway, as most flood-related deaths occur in vehicles.

'Science just isn't there yet' to predict severity of storms that caused deadly Texas flooding, meteorologist says

time4 days ago

'Science just isn't there yet' to predict severity of storms that caused deadly Texas flooding, meteorologist says

The severity of the flash flooding that killed more than 130 people in Texas's Hill Country was difficult to predict because the science is not yet available, a local meteorologist testified during Wednesday's special legislative session. The "prolific" flooding was made possible by the moisture leftover from Tropical Storm Barry, which made landfall on the east coast of Mexico on June 29, Pat Cavlin, a meteorologist at Houston CBS affiliate KHOU, said during Wednesday's session. The moisture then moved up to Texas and interacted with a slow-moving batch of storms over the middle of the state, combining over "one of the worst parts of the state when it comes to flash flooding events," Calvin said. Texas Hill Country is often colloquially referred to as "Flash Flood Alley" because the weather and landscape in the south-central Texas region work together to produce rapid flood events, according to the Texas Water Resources Institute (TWRI). What made the situation unique was the presence of a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) -- "basically a mini area of low pressure" -- that was slow-moving and stationary over Central Texas at the time of the torrential rains that caused the flash flooding, according to Calvin. While meteorologists knew that the MCV would be in the area about 12 to 18 hours before the event unfolded, the amount of heavy rain that would be produced was not clear until just hours before Guadalupe River flooded, Calvin said. Meteorologists began issuing alerts on July 3 that indicated there was cause for concern about the potential flooding that would take place within the next 24 hours. Throughout the day, multiple National Weather Service (NWS) offices responsible for forecasting conditions in that region were highlighting in various forecast alerts and warnings that there was an elevated risk for flash flooding in south-central Texas due to the current weather pattern in place. On the morning of July 3, the NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC) upgraded the portion of south-central Texas, including Kerr County and surrounding areas. At 1:18 p.m. on July 3, a Flood Watch was issued by the NWS Austin/San Antonio office, including Kerr County and surrounding areas through Friday morning. That alert mentioned that local heavy rainfall could cause flash flooding in the region, with isolated amounts of 5 inches to 7 inches possible, adding that "excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks streams and other low-lying and flood-prone locations." At 6:10 p.m., the WPC highlighted the south-central Texas region, including Hill Country, as an area of increasing concern for slow-moving, training thunderstorms, or rounds of thunderstorms that remain in the same area, with the potential for rainfall rate exceeding 3 inches per hour into the evening hours and beyond. The first flash flooding warning was issued at 1 a.m. on July 4 as thunderstorms began to roll in. At 4:03 a.m., a "rare" flash flood emergency warning was issued -- indicating an imminent, ongoing threat to life and public property. Around 4:20 a.m., the Guadalupe River hit a major flood stage, Calvin said. While flash flood warnings are common in the region, flash flood emergencies are not, he added. "This is an extreme event," Calvin said. "It's a freak event, really." Calvin noted that scientific and technological limitations make predicting a storm of this magnitude challenging. "The science just isn't there yet," he said. "We are not at a point yet where we can identify where these individual pockets that lead to this life-threatening flash flooding can happen until pretty much it's starting to happen." The deadly flooding over the Fourth of July weekend killed at least 136 people, including dozens of girls at Camp Mystic, situated on the Guadalupe River, Texas officials announced on Wednesday. Four people remain missing -- include one adult male and one girl from Camp Mystic in Kerr County, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott said. Marble Falls Volunteer Fire Department Chief Michael Phillips is among the missing, and another person from Travis County, Abbott said. Lawmakers filled House Bill 165 on Tuesday, which aims to create a model guide for local officials to follow regarding disaster response and recovery. The bill addresses contracting for debris removal; obtaining federal disaster funding; determining availability and construction of short-term and long-term housing and obtaining assistance from volunteer organizations. Abbott called the special session in the wake of the flooding. "We must ensure better preparation in the future," Abbott said in a statement. The special session is scheduled to last for 30 days. Other items on the agenda for the special legislative session include a congressional redistricting plan, which could create more seats for Republicans, and a second attempt at regulating THC, the psychoactive compound found marijuana.

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