Silver prices surge as market anticipates record-breaking rally
Silver is poised for a potential record-breaking surge, surpassing $36 per ounce for the first time in 13 years, driven by technical strength and a weakening dollar. Analysts anticipate silver outperforming gold, potentially reaching $50 by year-end. Favorable technical patterns and expectations of easing trade tensions further fuel the bullish outlook for the white metal.
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Mumbai: Silver may be on the cusp of a record-breaking rally after having topped the $36 per ounce mark in international markets for the first time in 13 years late last week. With technical charts pointing to continued strength and a weaker dollar boosting demand for hard assets, analysts expect the white metal to play catch-up rally with gold soon.Silver prices were trading at $36.3 per ounce on Monday, up 0.9% on the international market. In India, it was trading at ₹1,05,520 per kilogram on MCX."With gold likely to consolidate after a strong run, silver has the potential to outperform," said Ritesh Jain, founder, Pinetree Macro. "If silver holds above $36, it could retest the $50 highs seen during the Hunt Brothers era by the end of this year."In 2025, international gold prices have gone up 43.7%, fuelled by growing demand for safe-haven assets in the wake of Donald Trump's tariff actions and geopolitical uncertainties. Silver has rallied 22.3%. In comparision, the equity benchmark Nifty 50 has gone up 5.7%, Nifty Midcap 150 has advanced 3.6% and Smallcap 250 index has declined 1.3%.Silver is known for its short and swift run-ups. In 17 instances since 2005 when it has made a fresh high, the average three-month, six-month and one-year returns thereafter have been 5.2%, 13.3% and 26.1%, respectively, according to Samco Securities.On the technical charts, silver is pointing to a breakout. Apurva Sheth, head of research at Samco Securities, said a rare 'Cup and Handle' pattern is forming not just on the weekly chart, but also on the multi-decade (yearly) chart."This technical formation is often a precursor to explosive breakouts. What makes this instance remarkable is its repetition across timeframes, hinting at deep market structure alignment," said Sheth.Investors and traders could bet on the white metal by buying Silver Exchange-traded Funds, Silver Fund of Funds, or by trading in Silver futures on MCX.Expectations of a sharp rally in silver have been driven by factors such as softening US dollar, renewed hopes of easing trade tensions between the US and Chinese presidents, and the European Central Bank's seventh consecutive rate cut, said Ramesh Varakhedkar, head commodities at ICICI Securities.He said silver's dual role as both a financial asset and an industrial input makes its current rally particularly significant.Currently, the gold to silver ratio - a measure of how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold - stood at 91.3 on Monday, the lowest since April 2, said Varakhedkar. The gauge, which compares the prices of gold and silver, is signalling that silver offers better value at the juncture. The ratio had made an all-time high of 126.55 in March 2020, from where silver prices had doubled by August."In the short-term, silver could rise further to around $37.2, and on the MCX, Silver July contract, short-term price range is expected between ₹102,400 and ₹108,200 per kilogram, provided it maintains above ₹102,400 (currently at ₹1,05,520)," said Varakhedkar.
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Time of India
an hour ago
- Time of India
5 things to know about the US school choice law in the 'One, Big, Beautiful Bill'
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Indian Express
an hour ago
- Indian Express
UPSC Key: Great Nicobar Island Project, PARAKH Rashtriya Sarvekshan and Trade Union
Important topics and their relevance in UPSC CSE exam for July 8, 2025. If you missed the July 7, 2025 UPSC CSE exam key from the Indian Express, read it here FRONT PAGE Trump unveils 25% tariffs on South Korea and Japan; India eyes extended deadline Syllabus: Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance. Mains Examination: General Studies II: Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India's interests What's the ongoing story: TWO DAYS before the reciprocal tariff pause runs out on July 9, President Donald Trump said on Monday that the US would impose 25% tariffs on imports from Japan and South Korea beginning August 1 as he unveiled the first two of what he has said will be a wave of letters to trading partners outlining the new levies they face. Key Points to Ponder: • Know the term 'tariffs'. • Why tariffs are imposed by a country on another country's goods? • Which WTO principle is challenged when selective tariffs are imposed on certain countries? • What is the likely short-term effect of 25% tariffs on South Korea and Japan? • How does India stand to benefit or lose amid rising US protectionism targeting Asian allies? • How such trade protectionist measures affect global supply chains, especially in the electronics and automobile sectors? Key Takeaways: • The rate for South Korea is the same that Trump initially announced on April 2, while the rate for Japan is 1 point higher than first announced. Trump capped all of the so-called reciprocal tariffs at 10% until July 9 to allow for negotiations. Only two agreements have so far been reached, with Britain and Vietnam. • Meanwhile, amid uncertainty over the conclusion of an interim trade deal with India, the US has indicated that it may allow negotiations to continue until an extended deadline of August 1. • Indian officials have indicated that while efforts are still underway to wrap up the trade negotiations — which had reached the last leg till the challenges thrown up in the final lap delayed the announcement of a pact — there could now be some more elbow room with respect to the fresh timelines. • This is significant for India, which is unlikely to sign on the dotted line by then, although efforts are underway to ink a mini trade deal covering goods, excluding contentious items. Do You Know: • The Indian negotiators, led by Chief Negotiator and Special Secretary Rajesh Aggarwal, returned on Friday after nearly a week of talks with the US. A government official indicated that the likely interim deal would involve only goods, as services and labour issues are not currently part of the negotiations. • A government official had told The Indian Express that agriculture has been a major sticking point in negotiations, particularly because India has adopted an unwavering stance on this sector. • The US maintains that the August 1 cut-off date is not a new deadline but an outer limit for countries to 'speed things up', and that this strategy has helped bring trading partners such as the European Union on board. • The threat from the Trump administration is that if the August 1 deadline is not adhered to, those countries go back to the April 2 tariff levels. Most of them are minor trading partners of the US and are likely outside America's 18 important trading relationships that account for 95 per cent of the country's trade deficit. Other Important Articles Covering the same topic: 📍Trump to impose 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea from August 1 Post Op Sindoor, pvt sector may see big push for defence manufacturing Syllabus: Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance. Mains Examination: General Studies II: Government policies and interventions for development in various sectors and issues arising out of their design and implementation. What's the ongoing story: WITH A specific thrust on the need to 'leverage the buying power' of the government, authorities are learnt to have reached out to industry bodies and multiple private defence manufacturing companies to elicit active participation in defence manufacturing. Key Points to Ponder: • Defence Acquisition Procedure (DAP) 2020-what you know about the same? • The DAP 2020 emphasizes 'Make in India' by promoting what? • What are the advantages and limitations of using simulations in defence procurement? • What are the recent steps taken by the Ministry of Defence to streamline procurement timelines? • How can India leverage geopolitical crises to strengthen its private defence manufacturing ecosystem? • What role private sector can play in India's journey toward self-reliance in defence production in the context of evolving national security threats? • How can public-private collaboration enhance India's defence preparedness? Key Takeaways: • There is likely to be a greater push for enhanced indigenous arms manufacturing of items such as artillery guns, missiles, loitering and precision-guided munitions, and military-grade drones in the backdrop of Operation Sindoor. • The government is pivoting towards a leaner equipment procurement model that involves leveraging the private sector to a much greater extent, giving key players visibility in terms of future orders and taking recourse to provisions such as deemed licensing to tide over procedural hurdles. • Specific measures on the anvil include plans to compress procurement schedules to around two years from an average of about six years currently for big orders, as was done for the Rafale Marine aircraft procured by the Navy, a top government official told The Indian Express. Do You Know: • According to the latest data by the Controller General of Accounts, the Ministry of Defence had spent 14 per cent or Rs 24,730 crore till May-end out of its total budgeted capital expenditure Rs 1.8 lakh crore for FY26. The Ministry had spent just 4 per cent of its budgeted amount in the corresponding period of the previous financial year. • A model involving research and development (R&D) by public sector undertakings (PSUs), sometimes jointly with the private sector players, and the production then being entrusted to the private company, as was done for DRDO-designed 5.56x45mm CQB Carbine that is now being manufactured by Bharat Forge after a tender process, is likely to be replicated for more equipment. • In case of drones, the idea is to shortlist up to five manufacturers of civilian drones that have the capacity to expand to military-grade ones, and offer them government support for technology tie-ups and order book guidance. • The government is also working towards revising the Defence Acquisition Procedure (DAP) 2020 to streamline the defence procurement process. A compression of the documentation manual, co-development with the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), and a competitive bidding procurement procedure through tenders and not nominations are going to be the key focus areas for the proposed DAP 2025 that is likely to be ready in about eight months. • GIVEN THAT the nature of warfare is changing, an area where there is likely to be a greater thrust post-Op Sindoor is standoff weapons, including missiles, drones. The government is also working to update its Defence Acquisition Procedure to streamline the procurement process, elicit greater industry participation, and compress acquisition timelines. Other Important Articles Covering the same topic: 📍Indigenising defence production is a good idea whose time has come EXPRESS NETWORK Govt submits panel report on Great Nicobar project to NGT Syllabus: Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance Main Examination: General Studies III: Conservation, environmental pollution and degradation, environmental impact assessment and Infrastructure: Energy, Ports, Roads, Airports, Railways etc. What's the ongoing story: The Union environment ministry on Monday submitted, in a sealed envelope, the report of a high-powered committee (HPC) formed to revisit the Great Nicobar Island mega infrastructure project's environmental clearance to a six-member bench of the National Green Tribunal (NGT), headed by Chairperson Justice Prakash Shrivastava. Key Points to Ponder: • Map Work-Great Nicobar Island • The Great Nicobar Island mega infrastructure project-what you know about the same? • What is Andaman and Nicobar Islands Integrated Development Corporation Limited (ANIIDCO)? • What is the conservation status of leatherback sea turtle, long-tailed macaque, coconut crab and Nicobar megapode? • What are the issues related to the Great Nicobar Island Project? • Analyse the trade-offs between development and conservation in the Great Nicobar Island Project. • How the Great Nicobar Project can enhance India's maritime security? • Examine the impact of the Great Nicobar Project on the Shompen and Nicobarese tribes. Key Takeaways: • The ministry also submitted in an additional affidavit filed before the NGT that Rs 80 crore has already been released till March-end towards wildlife conservation plans and healthcare, as prescribed in the conditions of statutory environmental clearances for the mega project. This includes funds released for leatherback sea turtle; Nicobar megapode conservation; conservation plans for long-tailed macaque and coconut crab; and conservation of native flora and fauna, among other plans. • The bench granted time to the applicant's counsel to file a rejoinder to the environment ministry's additional affidavit and adjourned the matter. • The six-member NGT bench was hearing on-going matters filed by environmental activist and researcher Ashish Kothari on alleged environmental violations in the project. • The ministry's additional affidavit was filed in response to NGT's directions in March to place on record the follow-up actions and outcomes after the HPC revisited the project's statutory environmental clearance. Do You Know: • Great Nicobar is the southernmost and largest of the Nicobar Islands, a sparsely inhabited 910-sq-km patch of mainly tropical rainforest in southeastern Bay of Bengal. Indira Point on the island, India's southernmost point, is only 90 nautical miles (less than 170 km) from Sabang at the northern tip of Sumatra, the largest island of the Indonesian archipelago. • Great Nicobar has two national parks, a biosphere reserve, small populations of the Shompen and Nicobarese tribal peoples, and a few thousand non-tribal settlers. • The Andaman and Nicobar Islands are a cluster of 836 islands, split into two groups — the Andaman Islands to the north and the Nicobar Islands to the south — by the 150-km wide Ten Degree Channel. President Droupadi Murmu visited the archipelago in February this year, and interacted with some of its indigenous inhabitants. • The mega infrastructure project — which is being implemented by the Andaman and Nicobar Islands Integrated Development Corporation (ANIIDCO) — is proposed to include an International Container Transhipment Terminal (ICTT), a greenfield international airport with a peak hour capacity to handle 4,000 passengers, a township, and a gas and solar based power plant spread across 16,610 hectares. • The HPC was formed in April 2023 on the orders of the NGT to address 'unanswered deficiencies' regarding the impact of the mega project involving a port and airport pertaining to coral conservation, location of the port in a prohibited area , and on limited baseline data collection. The NGT had not interfered with the environmental and forest clearances granted for the project. • The HPC had concluded that the project's environmental clearance and coastal regulation zone clearance adhered to the instant statutory provisions. It had said that no part of the project fell in out of bounds coastally sensitive areas, while regarding corals, it had said citing the Zoological Survey of India that 16,510 coral colonies close to the project needed to translocated, as per an affidavit filed by the environment ministry last year. • After preparing the report, the HPC forwarded it to the Andaman and Nicobar Island administration, which was directed to take appropriate action regarding the conclusions and recommendations. Further, it said that in compliance of the HPC's report, an overarching committee was formed in January 2024, comprising the chief secretary of Andaman and Nicobar Administration, and representatives of the Wildlife Institute of India, Botanical Survey of India, Zoological Survey of India (ZSI), and ANIIDCO, among others. • Out of the Rs 80.84 crore released, Rs 15.72 crore was released to the Wildlife Institute of India for undertaking conservation plans for leatherback sea turtles, Nicobar megapode, and saltwater crocodile. The Salim Ali Centre for Ornithology got Rs 24.5 crore for undertaking conservation plans for bird hazard risk assessment for the proposed airport, conservation of coconut crab, and long-tailed macaque. • An amount of Rs 23.55 crore was released to the ZSI for undertaking conservation and management of coral reefs of the Great Nicobar Island, and conservation management for intertidal marine fauna of the Great Nicobar Island. Other Important Articles Covering the same topic: 📍The fate of Great Nicobar Island: Its Indigenous peoples displaced by aid, robbed by development Class 3 learning still lower than pre-Covid level: Govt survey Syllabus: Preliminary Examination: Indian Polity and Governance Mains Examination: General Studies II: Issues relating to development and management of Social Sector/Services relating to Health, Education, Human Resources. What's the ongoing story: Learning levels are yet to bounce back to pre-Covid levels in the primary stage, with students in Class 3 still not having caught up with the performance recorded in 2017, the Centre's latest school education assessment released Monday shows. Key Points to Ponder: • What is the PARAKH Rashtriya Sarvekshan? • How is this year's survey different from previous years? • What did current NAS find? • What are the objectives and significance of PARAKH (Performance Assessment, Review, and Analysis of Knowledge for Holistic Development)? • What is the role of the National Achievement Survey (NAS) in identifying learning gaps in the Indian school education system? • How can PARAKH contribute towards improving accountability and outcome-based education in Indian schools? • Discuss the significance of foundational literacy and numeracy in shaping the long-term educational and socio-economic outcomes of children. • What are the long-term implications of low foundational skills in early education on India's demographic dividend? Key Takeaways: • Class 3 students assessed in language and Mathematics fared better compared to 2021, when learning levels were captured in the wake of the pandemic and the resultant disruptions in education, but their scores remained lower than the pre-Covid level in 2017. • The PARAKH Rashtriya Sarvekshan, which was called the National Achievement Survey (NAS) in previous iterations, assessed 21.15 lakh students in Classes 3, 6, and 9 across 74,229 schools in December 2024. • However, scores of only Class 3 can be compared with 2017 and 2021 since it is the only common class in all three rounds of assessment. The 2017 NAS was held for Classes 3, 5 and 8, while the 2021 NAS was for Classes 3, 5, 8, and 10. • The 2024 survey was aligned with the stages of the National Education Policy 2020, under which Class 3 marks the end of the foundational stage of school education, Class 6 the end of the preparatory stage, and Class 9 the end of the middle stage. Do You Know: • According to its findings, Class 3 students recorded an average national score of 64% in language in 2024 — a two-percentage-point increase from 62% in 2021, but lower than the 2017 score of 66.7%. Similarly, in Maths, the national average score in 2024 was 60% — above the 57% recorded in 2021, but below 63% scored in 2017. • In terms of the language competencies they were assessed on, Class 3 students scored the lowest (60%) in reading short stories and comprehending their meaning, while they fared best (67%) in knowing and using words to carry out day-to-day interactions. • In Maths, Class 3 students fared poorly in geometric shapes and simple money transactions, scoring an average of 50% in both. They performed best (69%) in identifying simple patterns, shapes and numbers. • In Classes 6 and 9, the national average score is less than 50% in all subjects they were assessed in, except for language. Other Important Articles Covering the same topic: 📍Delhi govt schools lead in foundational stage; pvt schools excel in higher grades Trade union forum calls for nationwide bandh against govt policies tomorrow Syllabus: Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance. Mains Examination: General Studies II: Pressure groups and formal/informal associations and their role in the Polity. What's the ongoing story: A forum of 10 central trade unions and their associates has called for a 'Bharat Bandh' on Wednesday to oppose the 'anti-worker, anti-farmer and anti-national pro-corporate policies of the government'. Key Points to Ponder: • What is trade union? • Emergence and growth of Trade Unions-what you know about the same? • What are the Four Labour Codes? • What is Pressure Group? • What are the techniques used by pressure groups? • Pressure Groups in India and trade unions-connect the dots • What are the core grievances of trade unions in calling for the 09 July Bharat Bandh? • How can the government address demands of trade unions through inclusive policy-making? • Know the role of trade unions in shaping labour laws and reforms in India post-economic liberalization. Key Takeaways: • The forum on Monday said preparations for the bandh have been taken up in earnest by unions in all sectors of formal and informal/unorganised economy. • 'More than 25 crore workers are expected to take part in the strike. Farmers and rural workers will also join the protest across the country,' said Amarjeet Kaur from All India Trade Union Congress (AITUC). • Apart from AITUC, Indian National Trade Union Congress (INTUC), HMS, Centre of Indian Trade Unions (CITU), All India United Trade Union Centre (AIUTUC), Trade Union Coordination Centre (TUCC), Self Employed Women's Association (SEWA), All India Central Council of Trade Unions (AICCTU), Labour Progressive Federation (LPF) and United Trade Union Congress (UTUC) are part of the forum. Do You Know: • It alleged that the government has not been conducting the annual labour conference for the last 10 years and continues to take decisions in contravention to the interest of labour force, attempting to impose the four new labour codes to weaken collective bargaining, to cripple union activities and to favour employers in the name of 'ease of doing business'. • The forum also alleged that the economic policies are resulting in increased unemployment, rising prices of essentials, decrease in wages, cut in social sector spending in education, health, basic civic amenities, and all these are leading to more inequalities and miseries for poor, people of lower income group as well as the middle class. • Trade unions have been fighting against 'privatisation of public sector enterprises and public services, policies of outsourcing, contractorization and casualisation of workforce', it said. Other Important Articles Covering the same topic: 📍Bharat Bandh: Why Centre must listen to the concerns of trade unions Previous year UPSC Mains Question Covering similar theme: 📍Since the decade of the 1920s, the national movement acquired various ideological strands and thereby expanded its social base. Discuss. (2020) EXPLAINED Law on phone-tapping, and two HC rulings Syllabus: Preliminary Examination: Indian Polity and Governance Main Examination: General Studies II: Government policies and interventions for development in various sectors and issues arising out of their design and implementation. What's the ongoing story: Both the Madras and Delhi High Court cases involved 'preventing incitement to the commission of an offence', which is one of the valid grounds in law for authorising phone tapping. Key Points to Ponder: • How are phones tapped in India? • Who can tap phones? • What laws govern this? • Who authorises phone tapping? • Indian Telegraph Act, 1885-Historical Background and Present Relevance • Reforms needed or Revoking Indian Telegraph Act 1885? • Phone Tapping and Indian Telegraph Act, 1885 • Legality of Phone Tapping and Article 21 of the Indian Constitution • Authenticity of An Intercepted Conversation as an Evidence-know in detail Key Takeaways: • Both the Madras and Delhi High Court cases involved 'preventing incitement to the commission of an offence', which is one of the valid grounds in law for authorising phone tapping. • Both courts separately examined the nature of economic offences to determine if they could be deemed as 'public emergency' or 'public safety.' While the Delhi High Court upheld the interception order, the Madras High Court quashed it. • DELHI HC: On June 26, the Delhi High Court rejected the plea of an accused who challenged a trial court's order accepting evidence gathered by the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) through phone-tapping. • Madras HC: The Madras High Court on July 2 quashed an interception order issued by the MHA in 2011 for intercepting the phone of an accused in a bribery case. The accused was allegedly attempting to pay a bribe of Rs 50 lakh to a senior Income Tax officer to help the accused hide undisclosed taxable income. Do You Know: • The government's powers to intercept communication is laid down in and circumscribed by three pieces of legislation. —The Indian Post Office Act, 1898 allows for the interception of communication through post; —The Indian Telegraph Act, 1885 is used for tapping voice calls; and —The Information Technology Act, 2000 governs the interception of WhatsApp messages, emails, etc. • The 140-year-old Telegraph Act was originally meant for intercepting telegrams, but over the years it has been expanded to include telephonic conversations. Section 5(2) of the Act states that both state and central governments can, 'on the occurrence of any public emergency, or in the interest of the public safety', authorise interception. • Given that the right to free speech and the right to privacy are fundamental rights, any encroachment on these rights through surveillance is only permissible on narrow constitutional grounds. • These grounds — the interest of the sovereignty, and integrity of India; the security of the state; friendly relations with foreign states; public order; or preventing incitement to the commission of an offence — are enumerated as 'reasonable restrictions' under Article 19(2) of the Constitution. • Section 5(2) of the Act also mentions these grounds for authorising interception. For actions to be deemed a threat to 'public emergency, or in the interest of the public safety' and allow for interception, they have to necessarily fall into one of the reasonable restrictions. Other Important Articles Covering the same topic: 📍Explained: The laws for surveillance in India, and concerns over privacy For any queries and feedback, contact Subscribe to our UPSC newsletter. Stay updated with the latest UPSC articles by joining our Telegram channel – IndianExpress UPSC Hub, and follow us on Instagram and X. Priya Kumari Shukla is a Senior Copy Editor in the Indian Express (digital). She contributes to the UPSC Section of Indian Express (digital) and started niche initiatives such as UPSC Key, UPSC Ethics Simplified, and The 360° UPSC Debate. The UPSC Key aims to assist students and aspirants in their preparation for the Civil Services and other competitive examinations. It provides valuable guidance on effective strategies for reading and comprehending newspaper content. The 360° UPSC Debate tackles a topic from all perspectives after sorting through various publications. The chosen framework for the discussion is structured in a manner that encompasses both the arguments in favour and against the topic, ensuring comprehensive coverage of many perspectives. Prior to her involvement with the Indian Express, she had affiliations with a non-governmental organisation (NGO) as well as several coaching and edutech enterprises. In her prior professional experience, she was responsible for creating and refining material in various domains, including article composition and voiceover video production. She has written in-house books on many subjects, including modern India, ancient Indian history, internal security, international relations, and the Indian economy. She has more than eight years of expertise in the field of content writing. Priya holds a Master's degree in Electronic Science from the University of Pune as well as an Executive Programme in Public Policy and Management (EPPPM) from the esteemed Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, widely recognised as one of the most prestigious business schools in India. She is also an alumni of Jamia Milia Islamia University Residential Coaching Academy (RCA). Priya has made diligent efforts to engage in research endeavours, acquiring the necessary skills to effectively examine and synthesise facts and empirical evidence prior to presenting their perspective. Priya demonstrates a strong passion for reading, particularly in the genres of classical Hindi, English, Maithili, and Marathi novels and novellas. Additionally, she possessed the distinction of being a cricket player at the national level. Qualification, Degrees / other achievements: Master's degree in Electronic Science from University of Pune and Executive Programme in Public Policy and Management (EPPPM) from Indian Institute of Management Calcutta ... Read More
Time of India
an hour ago
- Time of India
Tesla stock chart signals trouble — analysts say the slide might be far from over
Tesla stock chart signals fresh trouble as bearish trend deepens despite brief rally- Tesla stock continues to face intense pressure as its recent rally fades and bearish signals strengthen. Despite a short-lived bounce from $284 to $348 in June, Tesla's stock chart still shows clear signs of weakness, with prices slipping back toward their early June lows. The electric vehicle (EV) giant, led by Elon Musk, is now struggling to stay above key technical levels, while growing uncertainty over tax credits, earnings, and regulatory changes adds more weight on the stock. Tesla stock is currently below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages — a bearish signal for traders. According to Yahoo Finance's analysis, shares peaked at $348 on June 24, a climb from $284 on June 4. That rally followed a temporary cooling-off in public tensions between Elon Musk and President Donald Trump. But even during the rally, the stock never managed to push above its 100-day moving average — a key resistance level. The failure to break through that level was seen as a missed opportunity for Tesla bulls, and now shares have pulled back sharply, almost erasing June's gains. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Senior Living Homes in Bhakhera May Surprise You Senior Living | Search Ads Undo This technical weakness isn't new. Tesla first dipped below its 200-day moving average back on February 25, following widespread concern over weak Q1 earnings. The downtrend may continue if upcoming Q2 results disappoint again. Why is Tesla stock falling despite recent gains? While Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) saw a brief bounce recently, the bigger picture remains bearish. The stock is still down significantly from its 2024 highs, and technical indicators are flashing trouble. Tesla has fallen below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages — a major red flag for chart watchers. Historically, when these support levels break, it signals a prolonged downtrend. Live Events Adding to investor concerns, Tesla reported back-to-back delivery declines. In both Q1 and Q2 of 2025, Tesla posted a 13% year-over-year drop in global vehicle deliveries — its worst showing since the pandemic era. That signals slowing demand, especially in key markets like Europe and China, where EV competition is heating up. On top of that, the recent removal of the $7,500 EV tax credit in the U.S. could cost Tesla nearly $2 billion in lost incentives , according to analyst estimates. This makes Tesla vehicles less attractive price-wise and could further hurt sales. What are analysts predicting for Tesla stock in 2025? The analyst community is growing increasingly cautious. William Blair recently downgraded Tesla from 'Buy' to 'Hold,' warning that CEO Elon Musk's political distractions — including his announcement of a new 'America Party' — could further erode focus from Tesla's core operations like autonomy and energy. Here's a snapshot of current analyst sentiment: 14 Buy , 12 Hold , 9 Sell ratings Average 12-month price target: ~$293 (modest downside from current levels) Morningstar fair value estimate: $250 TipRanks bull case: $340–$350 GovCapital long-term forecast: ~$1,360 by 2030 (if Robotaxi tech succeeds) Several analysts have also pointed to insider selling as a red flag. Elon Musk's brother, Kimbal Musk, and longtime board member Ira Ehrenpreis have offloaded significant shares this year — often seen as a bearish insider signal. Is Tesla's robotaxi and AI strategy enough to stop the stock slide? Tesla bulls are hanging onto one big hope: Robotaxi and AI-driven software growth. Musk has repeatedly promised that autonomous vehicles are Tesla's future. In fact, Tesla plans to unveil its first Robotaxi prototype in August 2025, which could dramatically reshape the stock narrative — if it delivers. However, many on Wall Street remain skeptical. Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) software still faces regulatory and safety hurdles, and the competition is fierce. Companies like Waymo, Apple (rumored), and even Chinese EV makers are racing toward the same goal. For now, AI and autonomy remain unproven revenue drivers. Until there's mass rollout or significant monetization, they're not enough to offset declining car sales and shrinking margins. How is political tension between Musk and Trump affecting Tesla? The relationship between Musk and Trump turned sour again this week — and Tesla's stock dropped 6.79% on Monday following a fresh public clash. The fallout intensified when Elon Musk announced the creation of his own political party, which Trump quickly criticized. Investors fear this political spat could bring unwanted regulatory attention or broader market uncertainty — both of which are risks for Tesla at a time when sentiment is already weak. Will the loss of EV tax credits hit Tesla's bottom line? Another blow came on July 4, when President Trump signed a new tax and spending bill that eliminates the EV tax credit starting September 30. That $7,500 credit has long been a key driver of EV sales and is now at risk. Analyst Jed Dorsheimer from William Blair warned that this change, along with the removal of corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) fines, may hit Tesla hard. He pointed out that the combination of reduced EV demand and the potential loss of over $2 billion in regulatory credits could trigger a significant drop in profitability. 'Unlike the EV tax credit, we expect the reduction in regulatory credit revenue to result in a direct hit to profitability,' Dorsheimer wrote, calling for a reset in market expectations. Is Tesla's falling vehicle delivery a red flag for investors? Tesla reported deliveries of 384,122 vehicles in Q2, a 13.5% drop compared to the same period last year. While production numbers can vary quarter to quarter, a year-over-year decline is a clear warning sign that demand could be slowing — especially if government incentives are ending. This delivery data puts more pressure on the company ahead of its second-quarter earnings report. Any signs of further margin compression or weakening demand could drive another sell-off. Are Tesla's future profits still too expensive to justify? Despite all the negative news, Tesla still trades at 152 times forward earnings — a steep premium compared to the S&P 500's average of 22 times. That valuation looks increasingly hard to defend, especially with future earnings estimates falling fast. JPMorgan auto analyst Ryan Brinkman recently revealed that Tesla's earnings-per-share (EPS) estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have dropped by 77%, 70%, and 71% respectively since October 2022. To make matters worse, Brinkman estimates that EV subsidies currently account for around 52% of Tesla's profits. With those incentives disappearing, Tesla's core business may struggle to support its sky-high valuation. Tim Urbanowicz, chief investment strategist at Innovator ETFs, summed it up this way on Yahoo Finance's Opening Bid : 'You look at that multiple and it's hard to imagine them growing into that in any short period of time. As with anything from Tesla, it always takes longer than Elon Musk or investors expect.' What key levels and events should investors watch next? Tesla's upcoming Q2 earnings report on July 23 will be crucial. Investors will look for: Updates on delivery guidance and margins Clarity on Robotaxi progress Commentary on the EV tax credit loss Any shift in political messaging from Musk From a technical analysis perspective, the $280 support level is key. A break below could signal another sharp leg down. On the upside, $335 acts as a resistance ceiling. Without strong earnings or a Robotaxi surprise, Tesla may struggle to break above that. Is the Tesla stock selloff just beginning? Tesla is facing a multi-front battle — technical breakdowns, slowing deliveries, lost incentives, political noise, and intense competition. While short-term rebounds may occur, the broader outlook remains cautious. Most analysts recommend holding off on new positions until after Q2 earnings or clearer guidance on Robotaxi deployment. For investors, it's a time to watch closely and manage risk. Tesla remains one of the most innovative and volatile stocks on the market — and this ride is far from over. Is Tesla stock a buy, hold, or sell right now? Given the technical breakdown, political tensions, loss of tax incentives, shrinking deliveries, and declining earnings estimates, Tesla stock may not offer much near-term upside. While long-term believers in Elon Musk's vision might hold on, short-term traders and cautious investors are clearly moving to the sidelines. Until Tesla shows meaningful improvement in vehicle demand, regulatory stability, or profitability without relying on subsidies, many on Wall Street expect more pain ahead. FAQs: Q1. Why is Tesla stock still bearish in July 2025? Because it remains below key averages and faces weaker demand, profit risk, and policy changes. Q2. How will the loss of EV tax credits affect Tesla stock? It could hurt demand and slash profits, adding more pressure on Tesla's valuation and earnings.
