Tasmanian election delivers worst result ever for Labor Party, but they are still in with a shot
Tasmanians would be forgiven for thinking they were experiencing déjà vu, because there is a lot that feels eerily similar to the election they had just 16 months ago.
A Liberal premier walking onto the stage claiming victory without the 18 seats he needs? Check.
A Labor leader striding out with fewer than 10 confirmed seats (and a likely maximum of 10), suggesting there is still a path to government through working with the crossbench? Check.
Well, actually, there was one big difference — the Labor leader who walked out on stage this time was Dean Winter, rather than Rebecca White.
Ms White, for a history lesson, was keen to see if she could form government, while others in the party (including Mr Winter) were less enthused by that idea.
They decided not to try, she stepped down and Mr Winter took over as leader, "a fresh start" for the party hoping a change in leadership would make all the difference.
Few would disagree that Tasmanian Labor has changed under Mr Winter.
In fact, Mr Winter himself liked to point that out repeatedly in parliament, saying things like "Tasmanian Labor has changed, and we have changed for the better".
Well, it has changed — but apparently not in the way Tasmanians wanted.
If people thought last year's result was bad, the party has recorded its lowest primary vote since 1903. No, that's not a typo.
It is true, as some in Labor have suggested, that with more and more progressive independents and parties, the left side of politics is more diluted.
But surely that cannot account for the entirety of this result.
More likely there are a number of reasons why Labor's vote has gone further backwards.
Firstly, they seem to be getting a lot of the blame for this very early election.
They are the ones who tabled a no-confidence motion in Jeremy Rockliff, knowing the crossbench had been willing to support it in the past and the premier had previously threatened that an election would be the result.
While Mr Winter initially tried to put the blame back on the Liberals, towards the end of the campaign the narrative had shifted.
It became about the fact Labor could not stand idly by a budget that would see the state go further into debt, by the potential privatisation of state-owned companies and by the undeniable stuff up that was Spirit of Tasmania ferries.
Sure, Tasmanians were mad about all of that.
But it turns out they were madder that Labor helped trigger an election.
And why did Labor trigger an election when they clearly were not ready?
If Labor had come out of the starting gates with some energy, pizzazz, and big, brave ideas, then maybe they could have turned their fortunes around.
But the starting weeks of their campaign were a little underwhelming.
TassieDocs, which most Tasmanians will likely think is a great idea, did not come out until week four.
But that should not be a surprise.
In the past 16 months, Labor has rarely spoken about its core issues of health, housing and cost of living.
Instead, it's been the Spirit of Tasmania debacle (the uncovering of that was undeniably brilliant), the economy, business confidence and major industrials.
All important, sure, but maybe not the issues Tasmanians are focused on.
Speaking of issues, it is probably safe to assume Labor lost some votes for their stadium stance.
After the last election, the party decided it had to give up the fence-sitting and truly pick a side.
It picked pro-stadium.
They would have lost some progressive voters on that call, but again, better than fence-sitting.
The issue is, they lost the hardcore pro-stadium voters too when they helped trigger an election, with many feeling Labor had put the stadium and team at risk.
Josh Willie and Dean Winter were even kicked out of the pro-stadium Facebook group, although, it is unclear how many voters would have actually voted for a party based on their stadium stance.
So here we are, July 20, 2025 and Labor is once again likely to claim 10 seats.
But this time, they truly do seem to be open to forming a minority government with the crossbench.
Why?
Well, after 11 years and five attempts at winning government, you're probably willing to try anything.
It's worth pointing out Labor was offered the opportunity to form government after the no-confidence motion in the premier was successful.
They passed on that opportunity, preferring to throw the dice. That gamble did not result in a single extra seat.
So, we have gone through an entire election just to end up back in the same spot.
But it is not just Labor in the same spot.
The Liberals could very well end up with just 14 seats — and this time they do not have a Jacqui Lambie Party trio to sign confidence and supply deals with.
Jeremy Rockliff has not been able to make it work in the last two minority governments. So, how could he possibly govern with 14 Liberals and some very progressive independents?
It seems he is going to try, because he intends to ask the governor to recommission his government.
The thing is, that might not work given the makeup of parliament — and this is why Labor thinks it has a real chance.
It's banking on the fact the crossbench is more closely aligned with them and would rather deal a Labor government.
We're unlikely to know who will be in the next parliament for a little while.
Not knowing exactly who is in is going to make any potential negotiations pretty tricky.
So, five weeks after the announcement of an election no-one saw coming, what have we got?
A parliament that looks pretty similar to the last one, more items to add to the expenditure list on a bill we can't afford, and no guarantee this new/old parliament will last.
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