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ABC News
19-07-2025
- Politics
- ABC News
Tasmanian election delivers worst result ever for Labor Party, but they are still in with a shot
Is it March 23, 2024 again? Because it certainly feels like it. Tasmanians would be forgiven for thinking they were experiencing déjà vu, because there is a lot that feels eerily similar to the election they had just 16 months ago. A Liberal premier walking onto the stage claiming victory without the 18 seats he needs? Check. A Labor leader striding out with fewer than 10 confirmed seats (and a likely maximum of 10), suggesting there is still a path to government through working with the crossbench? Check. Well, actually, there was one big difference — the Labor leader who walked out on stage this time was Dean Winter, rather than Rebecca White. Ms White, for a history lesson, was keen to see if she could form government, while others in the party (including Mr Winter) were less enthused by that idea. They decided not to try, she stepped down and Mr Winter took over as leader, "a fresh start" for the party hoping a change in leadership would make all the difference. Few would disagree that Tasmanian Labor has changed under Mr Winter. In fact, Mr Winter himself liked to point that out repeatedly in parliament, saying things like "Tasmanian Labor has changed, and we have changed for the better". Well, it has changed — but apparently not in the way Tasmanians wanted. If people thought last year's result was bad, the party has recorded its lowest primary vote since 1903. No, that's not a typo. It is true, as some in Labor have suggested, that with more and more progressive independents and parties, the left side of politics is more diluted. But surely that cannot account for the entirety of this result. More likely there are a number of reasons why Labor's vote has gone further backwards. Firstly, they seem to be getting a lot of the blame for this very early election. They are the ones who tabled a no-confidence motion in Jeremy Rockliff, knowing the crossbench had been willing to support it in the past and the premier had previously threatened that an election would be the result. While Mr Winter initially tried to put the blame back on the Liberals, towards the end of the campaign the narrative had shifted. It became about the fact Labor could not stand idly by a budget that would see the state go further into debt, by the potential privatisation of state-owned companies and by the undeniable stuff up that was Spirit of Tasmania ferries. Sure, Tasmanians were mad about all of that. But it turns out they were madder that Labor helped trigger an election. And why did Labor trigger an election when they clearly were not ready? If Labor had come out of the starting gates with some energy, pizzazz, and big, brave ideas, then maybe they could have turned their fortunes around. But the starting weeks of their campaign were a little underwhelming. TassieDocs, which most Tasmanians will likely think is a great idea, did not come out until week four. But that should not be a surprise. In the past 16 months, Labor has rarely spoken about its core issues of health, housing and cost of living. Instead, it's been the Spirit of Tasmania debacle (the uncovering of that was undeniably brilliant), the economy, business confidence and major industrials. All important, sure, but maybe not the issues Tasmanians are focused on. Speaking of issues, it is probably safe to assume Labor lost some votes for their stadium stance. After the last election, the party decided it had to give up the fence-sitting and truly pick a side. It picked pro-stadium. They would have lost some progressive voters on that call, but again, better than fence-sitting. The issue is, they lost the hardcore pro-stadium voters too when they helped trigger an election, with many feeling Labor had put the stadium and team at risk. Josh Willie and Dean Winter were even kicked out of the pro-stadium Facebook group, although, it is unclear how many voters would have actually voted for a party based on their stadium stance. So here we are, July 20, 2025 and Labor is once again likely to claim 10 seats. But this time, they truly do seem to be open to forming a minority government with the crossbench. Why? Well, after 11 years and five attempts at winning government, you're probably willing to try anything. It's worth pointing out Labor was offered the opportunity to form government after the no-confidence motion in the premier was successful. They passed on that opportunity, preferring to throw the dice. That gamble did not result in a single extra seat. So, we have gone through an entire election just to end up back in the same spot. But it is not just Labor in the same spot. The Liberals could very well end up with just 14 seats — and this time they do not have a Jacqui Lambie Party trio to sign confidence and supply deals with. Jeremy Rockliff has not been able to make it work in the last two minority governments. So, how could he possibly govern with 14 Liberals and some very progressive independents? It seems he is going to try, because he intends to ask the governor to recommission his government. The thing is, that might not work given the makeup of parliament — and this is why Labor thinks it has a real chance. It's banking on the fact the crossbench is more closely aligned with them and would rather deal a Labor government. We're unlikely to know who will be in the next parliament for a little while. Not knowing exactly who is in is going to make any potential negotiations pretty tricky. So, five weeks after the announcement of an election no-one saw coming, what have we got? A parliament that looks pretty similar to the last one, more items to add to the expenditure list on a bill we can't afford, and no guarantee this new/old parliament will last.
Daily Telegraph
13-06-2025
- Politics
- Daily Telegraph
17 new Labor MPs prepare to enter Canberra next month. Here's who stood out
Don't miss out on the headlines from NSW. Followed categories will be added to My News. As parliament prepares to return at the end of July, 17 enthusiastic new MPs will arrive in Canberra as the face of Labor's historic 94-seat victory at the federal election. The party is energised with the batch of new, younger talent with the hope of future prime ministers sitting among them. But Labor MPs recognise the influx of new blood comes with its own challenges: barefaced ambition that will demand the old guard move over and make room. 'We have won 94 seats, all roads lead to the Labor Party at this time,' one Labor MP said. 'But that has its own difficulties, they are all ambitious and want to have a go.' That ambition has already started bubbling away and was palpable when, just days on from Labor's historic win, long-term Labor figures Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus and Industry Minister Ed Husic were dumped to make room for Sam Rae, elected in 2022, and Daniel Mulino, elected in 2019. 'I think it's time for that … when you look at the front bench, many of them have been there for a long time,' the MP adds. Sam Rae. Picture: Newswire/Nicki Connolly Dr Daniel Mulino. Picture: David Clark Already party insiders are singling out members of the class of 2025 as those with cabinet minister – or even treasurer and prime ministerial – potential over those who would be excellent local MPs but have a 'ceiling'. Among the names that did stand out was former Tasmanian Labor leader Rebecca White, who retained the seat of Lyons after sitting Labor MP Brian Mitchell retired. White, a seasoned political operative who led the Tasmanian Labor Party from 2017 to 2024, was described by multiple sources as the likely future successor for Agriculture Minister Julie Collins. Collins also hails from Tasmania. Rebecca White, a seasoned political operative, stands out among the ALP's ministerial hopefuls. Picture: Nikki Davis-Jones 'Given where we have come from in Tasmania, she would be well placed to be the lead Labor person out of Tasmania in the longer term,' another Labor MP said of White. 'I assume she will take over from Julie in the longer term.' The source points out that the party has had 'good people' from the island state but 'not people who are on the trajectory to become cabinet ministers' besides Collins. Confidence in White is high, with the MP predicting 'out of that group that got in 2025, she'd be the first to make cabinet.' A second source agreed Ms White was being primed as a future minister and that was evident in Anthony Albanese's decision to award her an assistant ministry in health and aged care, Indigenous health and women. Multiple Labor sources said Matt Smith had charisma that helped him stand out. Picture: Elodie Jakes The other name repeatedly raised was Leichhardt MP and former professional basketballer Matt Smith, who multiple sources said had charisma that helped him stand out. 'Matt Smith seems really great – he is a real potential minister,' one Labor MP said of the candidate who won the Queensland seat off retiring Liberal Warren Entsch. Queensland emerged as the state with the most promising talent, with eight new MPs, including Renee Coffey, Kara Cook and Julie-Ann Campbell. Cook had been Labor's only female Brisbane councillor and the party's deputy leader before winning the federal seat of Bonner. 'Kara is not new to politics so she'll start a little bit ahead of others,' one of her parliamentary colleagues said. Campbell would be a future Labor minister straight from central casting with her trade unionist and Queensland Labor Secretary history. 'Julie-Ann has had institutional experience, which does lead to you getting a pretty good sense of how everything works and managing large organisations,' a Labor colleague said. Potential stars, clockwise from top left, Renee Coffey, Kara Cook, Julie-Ann Campbell and Ali France. Unlike the other names, Coffey's CV is heavier on real-world experience as the chief executive of a mental health charity, but colleagues credit her with ministerial potential after she won the seat of Griffith from popular Greens MP Max Chandler-Mather. The same MP said: 'Her result was not an accident She is very, very smart.' A senior Labor source agreed the three MPs were standouts describing Campbell as a 'strong political campaigner' whose links to the Chinese community as a Chinese-Australia would help Labor's standing with multicultural voters. The source also pointed out Ali France, who has already made history by toppling Peter Dutton, as an 'obvious' standout. 'Ali France's dad was an MP so there are some strong political roots and smarts there. I would definitely rate her as a future minister,' they said. Victorian MP Gabriel Ng, who took Menzies from rising Liberal star Keith Wolahan in one of the biggest election shocks, was given an honourable mention as a strong performer. But the 2025 batch of minister hopefuls will have to wait their turn with class of 2022 MP Andrew Charlton and Mulino both being groomed for future leadership potential. Mulino is considered whip-smart, with a solid economic background and years behind him as a state MP, and has recently been elevated to assistant treasurer. One source predicted his next role will not be treasurer but he's certainly on the trajectory. Gabriel Ng. Picture: NewsWire/Martin Ollman Andrew Charlton. Picture: Supplied Charlton, who has been elevated to the role of cabinet secretary after just one term, has been given front-row access to seeing how leadership works. 'Charlton is a Rhodes scholar. He's one of the smartest people in the building and he's also really likeable,' a Labor MP said of the Parramatta MP and Kevin Rudd staffer. The new role exposes him to how the expenditure review committee works and how ministers fight it out for cash – compulsory learning for any ministerial aspirant. Do you have a story for The Telegraph? Message 0481 056 618 or email tips@
The Guardian
13-06-2025
- Politics
- The Guardian
In Tasmania, neither the Liberals nor Labor seem to comprehend the reality of minority government
Tasmania is off to its fourth election in seven years. For the second time in less than two years the Liberal premier, Jeremy Rockliff, has called an early poll after his breakdown in relations with the independents who supported his minority government. In early 2024 he called for an election a year before it was due after two ex-Liberal party independents, John Tucker and Lara Alexander, refused his draconian terms of not voting on Labor or Green bills, motions or amendments without discussing them with the government. The premier saw parliament as unworkable if they challenged government policy. But they would not agree to be silenced, for example, about the lack of transparency surrounding the AFL stadium proposed for Hobart's waterfront. The 2024 election did not return the Liberals to majority government. It delivered them 14 seats in an expanded parliament of 35 members of the House of Assembly. Labor won 10 seats, the Greens five, the Jacqui Lambie Network three and three independents were elected. The Liberals claimed victory. Labor refused suggestions that it could form a minority or coalition government with the Greens, and potentially with independents. On election night the party's then leader, Rebecca White, seemed interested but that faded in the light of day. Labor had governed in majority from 1998 until 2010, when it formed a quasi-coalition with the Greens, who sat within cabinet as ministers but with the ability to oppose government policy and legislation. This arrangement provided stable government for four years, with the Greens ministers Nick McKim and Cassie O'Connor well regarded as hard-working and effective. But Labor still blamed the Greens for its 2014 loss of government after 16 long years in power. The Liberals have governed since 2014, in majority until 2018. Their majority was regained in 2021 but subsequently lost. Their vote has gradually eroded to its low point today. Labor's vote has been stuck in the doldrums post-2014, with White taking the party to three consecutive election losses and blaming the Greens for destroying the party – rather than Labor's failure to differentiate itself from the Liberals. Polling in Tasmania mirrors this year's federal election result. The Liberal and Labor votes are hovering around 30%, eclipsed by the combined Greens, Lambie Network and independents at about 40%. If accurate this will surely deliver another minority government. But those results still might deliver more seats to the Liberals than Labor, despite parliament's no-confidence motion in Rockliff, his refusal to step down, and the fact that his government has become embattled, tired and ineffective. Labor's leader, Dean Winter, brought the no-confidence motion, setting in train the events that have led to the early election. This will win his party no fans. Labor has also backed the Liberals on the stadium proposal, now opposed by 59% of Tasmanians. The Greens stepped up and offered to work with Labor so an election could be avoided. But Winter travelled to Government House to assure the governor, Barbara Baker, that he and his party would not countenance working with the Greens. He will be hoping that Tasmanian voters cannot discern between state and federal politics, that they equate Tasmanian Labor with all its woes with the Albanese government, and that the 9% swing to Labor at the federal election is replicated. A millstone for the major parties is Tasmania's debt crisis, with net debt forecast to reach $10.9bn by 2029. Neither party has offered credible remedies and both will surely be constrained for once from electoral pork-barrelling. So the crossbench is likely to expand at the 2025 poll and, with it, the available talent for supporting minority government and playing a role in a quasi-coalition government. Indeed the Greens and the crossbench have the numbers to form their own minority government. But neither the Liberals nor Labor seem to comprehend the reality of minority government. Neither party seems to have learned from previous experiences of it. And neither has grasped that a Labor-Greens quasi-coalition offers a solid and workable arrangement. In Tasmania, the major parties simply have to come to terms with the fact that the days of majority government are done and will be until they significantly rebuild faith with the electorate. Until then, they need to deal cooperatively with the Greens and the crossbench. Kate Crowley, an adjunct associate professor at the University of Tasmania, is an expert on minority government and the editor of Minority Government: The Liberal-Green Experience in Tasmania
Sky News AU
10-05-2025
- Politics
- Sky News AU
Labor's Tasmania success due to ‘very strong anti-Dutton sentiment'
Incoming Labor MP for Lyons Rebecca White says the Albanese government's success in Tasmania was due to a 'very strong anti-Dutton sentiment'. 'The second reason that I think explains the result in Tasmania was that there was a very strong anti-Dutton sentiment that I was picking up when I was doorknocking, and that was due to the fact that he didn't seem to have a clear plan for Tasmania,' Ms White told Sky News Political Editor Andrew Clennell. 'There was also concern about the threat of cuts to Medicare and a push for nuclear, which Tasmanians don't see a place for in our state.'
Daily Mail
09-05-2025
- Politics
- Daily Mail
Women to outnumber men in Anthony Albanese's government as record number elected to Parliament
New faces will be welcomed to the fold as Labor politicians come together for the first time since their emphatic victory at the federal election. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will address the caucus meeting in Canberra on Friday after his party's landslide win. The scale of the success has taken even senior Labor ministers by surprise, lending to a buoyant feeling among the party's members. A record number of women will be taking their seats in parliament, with women to outnumber men in the Labor partyroom. At least 46 seats will be held by women in the Labor government out of a total of 150 in the House of Representatives. More than a dozen new MPs will join the ranks after Labor increased its seats from 77 to at least 90 as the count continues. Australian National University political historian Frank Bongiorno said Labor hadn't had a victory this size since 1943. 'It's a remarkable opportunity for the government to craft a legacy, which could extend even beyond this term,' he said. 'Governments don't normally extend their majorities ... you normally win your first election reasonably comfortably, and then you begin burning political capital straight away in that first term, and then often have to scrape a win the second time round.' New Dickson MP Ali France has been hailed a 'Labor legend' after she became the first person to unseat an opposition leader at an election with her defeat of Peter Dutton. Former Tasmanian state opposition leader Rebecca White's victory in Lyons has her among the contenders to be elevated to the ministry, expected to be unveiled on Monday ahead of a swearing-in ceremony on Tuesday. The depleted Liberals will hold a partyroom meeting on Tuesday to pick their new leader with Angus Taylor and Sussan Ley looming as the leading candidates. Attracting women voters and candidates has been a major issue for the coalition. The new women joining Labor's ranks were to the party's 'major political advantage', Professor Bongiorno said. 'We know that there will be women at the table, at the cabinet table, there'll be women there in caucus when issues come up that are of particular interest to women,' he said. 'We know that women's voices and women's agency will be there.' Meanwhile, Deputy Liberal leader Sussan Ley has officially announced her tilt at the leadership, confirming she will put herself forward to refresh a decimated party. The Liberals will meet in Canberra on Tuesday to choose a new leader, with shadow treasurer Angus Taylor also courting colleagues for the top job. 'I'm determined and convinced that I am the right person to lead the party forward at this time and I think my appointment would send a strong signal to the women of Australia,' Ms Ley told Seven's Sunrise on Friday. Ms Ley acknowledged the Liberals suffered a significant defeat and needed to 'meet the Australian people where they are, because clearly we didn't do that at the last election'. The bloodletting continues ahead of Tuesday's meeting as the coalition's Indigenous Australians spokeswoman Jacinta Nampijinpa Price defected from sitting with the National Party to the Liberals. As a Country Liberal Party senator from the Northern Territory, she can choose to sit in either partyroom but the spot has historically sided with the Nationals. Her colleagues have expressed disappointment as it means the loss of a Nationals senator takes the party below the five needed in the Senate to receive entitlements offered to larger parties. Queensland MP Michelle Landry branded it disloyal.
