World Cup 2026: Who's qualified, who's struggling and which underdogs have a shot at glory?

New York Times

11-06-2025

The 2026 World Cup in the United States, Mexico and Canada is one year away.
Plans are being made, hopes are being raised, lists of countries not allowed to travel to the tournament are being checked.
Thus far, more than 500 matches have been played since the first qualifier took place in October 2023, to narrow 206 teams down to 45, plus the three co-hosts, for the tournament. Ten teams have secured their passage, 67 have been definitively eliminated (plus one that pulled out) and while some of the established powers are already through, others are wobbling. Two nations have also qualified for the first time.
As the clock starts to tick down, here is the state of play: who's in, who's out, who's hopeful and who's worried.
Already qualified: None
The qualification process hasn't even started for half the European nations yet, including some of the biggest hitters — Germany, Spain, France and Portugal. Nobody has confirmed qualification, but some teams are already in decent shape: Norway, England and Bosnia-Herzegovina have 100 per cent records from four, three and three games respectively, and it will take some effort from this point not to qualify.
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A couple of others have got off to sticky starts, but nobody is in more turmoil than Italy: they have only played two games, winning one, but the first of them — a 3-0 thrashing against Norway — was enough for them to dispense with head coach Luciano Spalletti. They're already nine points back from group leaders Norway, so they might have to go via the play-offs. If Italy fail to qualify, they will miss their third World Cup in a row, which is pretty extraordinary for one of the tournament's most historically successful teams (four trophies).
Already qualified: Australia, Iran, Japan, Jordan, South Korea, Uzbekistan
The Asian qualification process is so vast and unwieldy that it started in October 2023, and involves up to six rounds, the third of which has just been completed. And while established powers Australia, Iran, South Korea and Japan have already qualified as expected, they have been joined by some more surprising candidates.
Jordan are through to their first ever World Cup, an incredible achievement for a country whose closest attempt had been losing 5-0 against Uruguay across two legs of an intercontinental play-off in 2014.
Last week, they sealed second place in their group and thus automatic qualification with a 3-0 win against Oman last week, thanks to a hat-trick from Ali Olwan. It's an incredible feat, but perhaps not quite such a colossal shock given it comes after they reached the final of the 2023 Asian Cup, when they lost to Qatar.
Jordan have done this without many stars, which is not quite the case for fellow first-time qualifiers Uzbekistan, whose 'golden generation', featuring Roma forward Eldor Shomurodov and Manchester City's Abdukodir Khusanov, took them through. Uzbek president Shavkat Mirziyoyev was so delighted that he bestowed a variety of awards and honorary titles on the players, the coaching staff and everyone down to their photographer and the deputy chairman of the team's fan club.
This isn't where qualification stops. Oh no, sir. The teams that finished third and fourth in the three groups go into another phase, this time two groups of three. They include Saudi Arabia, who are in real danger of not qualifying, which would be surprising given their performance in 2022, when they defeated ultimate champions Argentina, but also pretty embarrassing for everyone involved, not least Gianni Infantino, given their increasing political importance to the FIFA president and Saudi's status as hosts in 2034.
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Asian champions Qatar are also in that mix, bidding to make it as qualifiers for the first time after hosting in 2022. A more surprising presence is Indonesia, led by head coach Patrick Kluivert and bidding to qualify for the first time since 1938, when they were known as the Dutch East Indies, which would be a pretty incredible turnaround given they were suspended from taking part in qualifying for the 2018 tournament.
One team who won't be there is Palestine. In some respects, it's astonishing that they were even able to take part, given the turmoil in the region, but they were seconds from making it to the next phase, hanging onto a 1-0 lead against Oman in the final seconds on Tuesday, only to concede a 97th-minute penalty. That was converted, they drew 1-1 and Oman went through in their place.
The winners of the two groups — which will be two mini round-robin tournaments held in two undetermined central locations — will go through to the World Cup. The runners-up will then go into a two-legged play-off, and the winners of that will progress to the intercontinental play-offs.
Already qualified: Canada, Mexico, USA (as co-hosts)
This is an unusual qualifying process for the Central and North American nations, given that the three teams who made it through automatically in 2022 are co-hosting and thus not involved.
Therefore, there are likely to be some fresh Concacaf faces in 2026, although the qualifiers have some way to go yet. The second phase has just finished, in which 30 teams split into six groups of five were whittled down to 12, who now go into the third phase, three groups of four. The winners of those groups qualify outright and the best two runners-up go into the big intercontinental play-off jamboree.
Previous qualifiers such as Trinidad and Tobago, Honduras, Costa Rica and Jamaica are safely through, but they will be joined by some potential first-timers, including Curacao, Suriname and Guatemala. Another name in the next phase is Haiti, who have been there before (once, in 1974) but it could present a potentially sticky diplomatic situation, given that Haiti is on the list of countries banned from travelling to the United States. Players, coaching staff and administrators are exempt from that ban, but as things stand, Haitian fans won't be able to travel, even if their national team qualify.
Teams that have already qualified: Argentina, Brazil, Ecuador
With six of the 10 teams qualifying automatically and a seventh heading through to the intercontinental play-offs, there's even less jeopardy than usual in South America.
As such, Brazil could afford to have a nightmare, national existential crisis-inducing first half to the campaign, which prompted them to summon Carlo Ancelotti as their new head coach, but still saunter through with two games to spare. They secured their spot by beating Paraguay 1-0 on Tuesday to join defending champions Argentina and Ecuador, with Uruguay and Paraguay requiring only a point from the remaining two games.
Colombia are limping towards the line: with a four-point cushion over Venezuela in seventh, they should have enough to avoid the play-offs, but with just five wins from their 16 games, it hasn't been a vintage campaign. The intercontinental play-off spot will almost certainly be either Venezuela or Bolivia, but Peru, five points back, are clinging onto an outside chance.
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The real disaster story of this campaign has been Chile. The 2015 and 2016 Copa America champions saw their faint hopes of sneaking into the play-offs disappear after losing 2-0 in Bolivia, with Ricardo Gareca leaving his role as head coach after the game. It is a fall from grace from their glory days but they have not qualified for a World Cup since 2014, so perhaps it is not a colossal surprise. 'The 'golden generation' is buried, and I'm the only one left,' Alexis Sanchez, 36, rather poignantly told ESPN.
Already qualified: None
No team has sealed their spot at the tournament, but a few of the usual suspects are in good shape. Egypt, Morocco, Ivory Coast, Algeria and Tunisia all top their groups, and at least a couple of them should seal their passage in the next round of games in September. There's a potential story brewing in Group D, where Cape Verde are ahead of traditional big boys Cameroon: watch out for their fixture in Cape Verde in September.
There's a story of a different kind in Group E, broadly because it's an absolute mess. For starters, Eritrea withdrew from the qualifiers entirely, under instructions from their government, which feared its players would defect/seek asylum if they were allowed to travel to other countries. Then in January, Congo were suspended by the Confederation of African football for government interference: two fixtures — against Zambia and Tanzania — were awarded as 3-0 defaults to the opposition and initially, the remainder of their games were cancelled. In May, the suspension was lifted and Congo will be free to play their remaining three qualifiers.
There is more drama in Group C, where South Africa are expecting official word that they will suffer a three-point deduction for fielding a suspended player, Teboho Mokoena, in their win against Lesotho.
That might help out Nigeria, who are currently on course to miss a second World Cup in a row: they sit fourth in the group — behind South Africa, Rwanda and Benin — after six games, and even if they did climb up to second place, they might not make it into the play-offs, which takes the four best runners-up and puts them into a mini tournament for the final qualification place.
Already qualified: New Zealand
There was, in truth, very little tension or jeopardy in the Oceania qualifiers. In previous campaigns, Oceania (which does not include Australia, who are part of the Asian confederation) has not been assured an automatic spot, with the winners going through to the intercontinental play-offs. Now, with the expanded tournament, they get one guaranteed direct place.
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In March, New Zealand confirmed their spot at the 2026 World Cup, beating New Caledonia 3-0 in the final of their qualifying bracket, thus qualifying for their first World Cup since 2010.
There is an outside chance that two teams from Oceania could make it through, because New Caledonia's consolation prize will be the intercontinental play-offs, which will see teams from four of the other five confederations (all apart from Europe) scrap it out for the two remaining places.
The expansion of the World Cup to 48 teams is flawed in several ways, and you could easily argue that it should be about getting the best teams together, rather than as many teams as possible. But you have to admit it would be pretty wild if New Caledonia — a tiny group of islands in the Pacific with a population of under 300,000 and which is technically part of the French Republic — made it through, however unlikely.