UK watchdog to extend non-financial misconduct rules beyond banks
The UK watchdog will also oversee how finance firms handle "serious, substantiated cases of poor personal behaviour", information that will be shared through regulatory references in the same way financial misconduct currently is. That will make it harder for individuals to avoid consequences by moving from firm to fir, the FCA said.
The rules for non-financial misconduct will be extended to around 37,000 other regulated firms from 1 September 2026.
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Reuters
an hour ago
- Reuters
Investors mobilise for weeks of market whiplash from wild-card events
LONDON, July 3 (Reuters) - Big investors are mobilising to trade through weeks packed with wild-card events that may shatter the calm in stock markets and drive big swings for assets they see as exposed to both positive or negative surprises, from gold to corporate credit. U.S. Treasuries, the dollar, yen and euro zone debt may also turn volatile, investors said, Thursday's U.S. jobs data is followed by next week's crunch U.S.-European Union tariff deadline and then an unpredictable French budget vote. After that, markets face an August 12 deadline for U.S.-China talks to achieve a trade deal. "I can't think of a time in my history in markets, which is pretty long, where you've had so much risk and so little risk premium," said Insight Investment head of investment specialists April La Russe, referring to the compensation for holding risky assets over cash. Here's a look at how investors are gaming out potential market flare-ups in the days and weeks ahead. Russell Investments global head of solutions strategy Van Luu said market participants were pricing a mildly positive outcome on July 9, with the U.S. and EU either settling for 10% universal tariffs or postponing a resolution, as the U.S. had with China. He had turned negative on corporate credit because yields were underpricing the economic risks of ongoing tariff uncertainty, he said. With Brussels now pushing for exemptions for key EU export sectors, the worst case scenario was a deadlock and markets starting to fear reciprocal tariffs, he said. Amundi global head of macro Mahmood Pradhan, a former IMF deputy director for Europe, said the July 9 outcome was a coin-toss but a benign result was already priced into risky assets. World stocks(.MIWD00000PUS), opens new tab have rebounded and are up 24% since a low of April 8, soon after U.S. President Donald Trump delivered his "Liberation Day" April 2 bombshell of tariffs on imports from around the world. "Given the rally we've had, there might not be more upside," Pradhan said. Any outcome on July 9 could hit the dollar and spark cross-currency volatility, investors said. The greenback is already down some 10% against other major currencies so far this year . Treasuries would suffer if talks broke down in a threat to world trade, Artemis head of fixed income strategy Liam O'Donnell said. A long and steady accumulation of Treasuries by overseas investors and central banks has been partly driven by the dollar's dominant position in global trade flows. Gold, (.XAU), opens new tab which has soared by more than 25% year-to-date to $3,344 as investors piled into the precious metal to hedge portfolios against inflation and recession risks sparked by high tariffs, is also vulnerable to a positive EU tariff outcome. "We could see profit taking (on gold) by real money investors and also hedge funds," Edmond de Rothschild multi-asset head Michael Nizard said. While latest U.S. payrolls data is released on Thursday, the next official payrolls report on Aug. 1 could be a bigger jolt to world markets than tariffs, coming at a time of holiday-thinned trade, investors added. "In terms of what would produce the biggest market surprise, I think it's actually U.S. data because that has been flying under the radar," Russell's Luu said. Artemis' O'Donnell said the upcoming U.S. job reports were the biggest event risk for markets. Luu said gauges of expected volatility in some world currencies seemed too low, particularly those expressing how Japan's yen, which can rip higher when U.S. rate cut bets build, might swing against the dollar and the euro in the months ahead. There are also crunch dates for Europe that could revive anxiety about debt stress, overshadowed so far by investors tapping assets such as triple-A rated German Bunds as Treasuries' haven appeal has diminished. French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou survived his eighth no confidence motion on Tuesday but investors are wary about his chances of getting a plan to trim the euro zone's biggest budget deficit on July 14 through a parliament rocked by right-wing rebellions. Germany's stimulus bonanza is also now rolling, with an upper house vote on business tax breaks on July 11. Benchmark Bund yields are about 25 basis points (bps) higher so far this year to around 2.62% given expectations for increased bond sales to fund extra borrowing. The extra yield bond investors demand for lending to France over Germany, at 70 bps now , might be too low given the immediate French budget risk ahead. "We prefer an underweight position in French sovereign bonds in the near term," RBC Wealth Management investment strategy head Frédérique Carrier said. And Britain is also back on the watch-list as government U-turns on welfare reforms threaten a budget blowout, sparking fresh bond selling.
Reuters
an hour ago
- Reuters
Sterling nudges lower but still near multi-year highs, looking past UK politics
LONDON, July 2 (Reuters) - The pound eased a touch against the dollar on Wednesday but held near its near-four-year top hit the previous day, one of the many beneficiaries of the greenback's recent weakness. Investors by and large looked through political drama in Britain where Prime Minister Kier Starmer suffered the largest parliamentary rebellion of his premiership even as he was forced to back down on key parts of a benefit-cutting package. Markets this week were more focused on hints from Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey on Tuesday that the central bank could change the BoE's quantitative tightening process - the pace of which, analysts say, has been weighing on longer dated government bonds known as gilts. "The gilt market did not react negatively to the news from the Commons, at least partly thanks to Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey hinting at a potentially slowing quantitative tightening to give some relief to back-end liquidity. That may have helped shield sterling, too," said Francesco Pesole, currency analyst at ING, in a note. Sterling was last down 0.35% on the dollar, largely moving in line with peers, as the dollar's recent decline paused for breath. The pound hit $1.3787 on Tuesday, its highest since autumn 2021. Other European currencies such as the euro and Swiss franc are also at their strongest in years. Sterling was also a touch weaker on the euro, which was up 0.15% at 85.98 pence, an over two-month high. There is little British economic data expected for the rest of the day, though policy maker Alan Taylor will speak at the ECB's central bank conference at Sintra, Portugal. Taylor voted for a rate cut at the central bank's last meeting in June, when the rate-setting monetary policy committee voted to keep rates steady. Market pricing indicates a good chance of a BoE rate cut at their meeting next month, though it is not yet fully priced in.
The Herald Scotland
2 hours ago
- The Herald Scotland
Scotch whisky distillers change course as US lifts barriers
'What we're seeing right now is a once-in-a-generation set of challenges facing the Scotch whisky industry,' a spokesperson for the Scotch Whisky Association said. 'Businesses of all sizes, but particularly SMEs (small and medium-sized enterprises), are operating under considerable strain as input costs have risen, from increased raw material and energy prices to the rise in employment costs. 'Consumer spending is also being impacted, the impact of which is being felt across the supply chain and hospitality sector. 'On the international stage, the key markets relied upon by smaller and medium sized companies to establish their business – the UK, the EU, and the US – are all facing their own unique obstacles which have put up barriers to trade and access.' The founder of one Scotch distillery said it has switched its focus to Asia because of the higher cost of exporting to the US. 'It's a real challenge for us,' said Martin Murray, co-owner of Thurso-based Dunnet Bay Distillers. 'We'd set out a plan for 2025 with market visits and investment, but that has been significantly impacted by the US tariffs. As a result, we've changed our strategy to be investing in sales in Asia. Our sales in China are going well in a market that still has challenges post-Covid.' Ian Palmer, founder of InchDairnie Distillery in Fife, said: 'The immediate term impact has been confusion and uncertainty over the tariffs leading to our distributors being very cautious. 'In the long term, there will be price increases for the US consumer leading to a loss of volume and that will be more evident at the 'value' end of the market.' Despite the challenges in the US, industry figures are encouraged by the recent signing of the UK-India trade deal, which will bring freer access for exports to one of the world's biggest whisky markets, as well the emergence of key markets in Asia such as Vietnam. Scotch whisky veteran Billy Walker, owner of The GlenAllachie Distillery in Speyside, said: 'There's money to be spent there. I can see Vietnam becoming a huge holiday area in the next few years because it has such a wonderful coastline with remarkably decent infrastructure. 'And they are knowledgeable. They are not novices when it comes to Scotch whisky.'
