Ellie Scotney vs. Yamileth Mercado prediction, odds, pick, how to watch – 7/11/2025
Ellie Scotney (10-0) and Yamileth Mercado (24-3) will be the first of four Champion vs. Champion fights on Friday night when they step into the ring on the Katie Taylor-Amanda Serrano 3 main card. It is time to continue our boxing odds series with an Ellie Scotney-Yamileth Mercado prediction and pick.
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Scotney, 27, has quickly risen to prominence as a professional after a decorated amateur career. Scotney is already a star in her native England but has yet to fight outside of her home country. Since beating Cherneka Johnson to win the world title in 2023, she has collected successive title defenses against Laura Griffa, Segolene Lefebvre, and Mea Motu.
Mercado, 27, lacks the amateur resume to match Scotney's, but has much more experience on the professional circuit. The Mexican has held the 122-pound belt since 2019 and is coming off a massive victory over Ramla Ali to pick up her seventh title defense.
Here are the Ellie Scotney-Yamileth Mercado odds, courtesy of FanDuel
Netflix Boxing Odds: Ellie Scotney-Yamileth Mercado Odds
Ellie Scotney: -1100
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Yamileth Mercado: +540
Over 9.5 Rounds: -700
Under 9.5 Rounds: +450
How to Watch Ellie Scotney vs. Yamileth Mercado
Time: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT
Fight ring walk time (estimated): 8:45 p.m. ET / 5:45 p.m. PT
TV/Stream: Netflix
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access / Save $30)*
Why Ellie Scotney Will Win
Scotney is still young in her career, but she is as consistent as they come. The 27-year-old is already a world champion with impressive victories over Cherneka Johnson, Segolene Lefebvre, and Mea Motu along the way. She has yet to fight on the road, but has not yet shown many weaknesses in her game.
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Scotney does not have much power, but makes up for it with a relentless pace and cardio for days. She never gives her opponents a single moment to catch their breath, and Mercado will be no different. Mercado tends to start slowly, which is a recipe for disaster against a volume machine like Scotney, who is constantly moving and throwing punches.
As gritty as Scotney is, her footwork and timing also make her difficult to hit. Although she likes sitting in the pocket, her excellent distance management enables her to perfectly manipulate the range. In her last outing, Motu only connected on 27.9 percent of her punches, leading to a 30-punch advantage for Scotney.
Why Yamileth Mercado Will Win
While Scotney has thoroughly dominated all 10 opponents of her professional career, she has yet to put anyone away. Power is not her game, and she began facing quality opponents much earlier than most. However, it is still slightly disappointing that she did not secure at least a couple of knockouts against low-level competition.
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Mercado loves being patient in the early rounds to make her reads. There is nothing flashy about her, but once she gets going, she is hard to stop. Scotney's technique is very tight, but she can get wild once the fight gets bloody. If that is the case, Mercado is the fighter with the straighter punches with more power on them. Mercado's cardio might not be as good as Scotney's, but her late-round prowess is better than any opponent the London native has faced before.
Mercado is not much of a power puncher herself, but she is the only one of the two with even a single knockout on her record. Scotney has never been hurt much before, but does not tend to wear damage well on her face. A few good shots from Mercado could be enough to open up Scotney's face, which always carries more weight with the judges.
Final Ellie Scotney-Yamileth Mercado Prediction & Pick
Mercado has the ability to keep up with Scotney's pace, her best weapon, but should just be one step ahead of her the entire time. Scotney's boxing IQ, footwork, and pressure are next-level, and something Mercado has yet to face in her career. Mercado has faced better opponents — her most recent loss came against Amanda Serrano — but none with a style like Scotney's.
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Mercado can make the fight compelling, but her habit of taking early rounds off will not pay off against Scotney. The undefeated phenom will almost certainly get off to a quick lead and force Mercado to fight from behind. Mercado's style is not well-equipped to find much success in those situations.
Though Scotney will find the mark against Mercado, her first is highly unlikely to come in this fight. Mercado has never been knocked out, nor has she ever been in too much trouble throughout her career. Scotney will most likely get her hand raised by the judges, but the value will be hard to find. Consider Scotney's decision prop and the over round total as safe parlay legs.
Final Ellie Scotney-Yamileth Mercado Prediction & Pick: Ellie Scotney by Decision (-370)
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