Traders Look Beyond Euro for Next Round of Short Dollar Bets
Long euro positions against the greenback remain in favor due to optimism over increased defense spending in the single-currency region. Traders though are looking to bet currencies such as the Chinese yuan, Australian dollar and South Korean won will strengthen versus their US peer on expectations the Federal Reserve will resume interest-rate cuts and as American exceptionalism fades.
Dollar-yuan option trading volume on the Depository Trust & Clearing Corp. climbed to a one-month high last week with investors paying a premium to speculate on downside moves in the pair versus upside ones. Volumes in Australian dollar call options, which gain if the currency rises against the greenback, were nine times greater than puts, data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group's central limit order book showed July 1.
'The most recent demand in FX options has been a play in USD/CNH lower via dollar put digitals,' as well as other downside option structures, said Mukund Daga, head of foreign-exchange options for Asia at Barclays Bank in Singapore. 'This has been on the back of the most recent truce pact' that US President Donald Trump has signed with China, he said.
A put digital option refers to a strategy that offers a fixed payout if the currency pair falls below a predetermined level when it expires.
There's also an increased interest in bullish option structures for the Korean won, Daga said.
Hedge funds are betting the won may replicate the Taiwan dollar's surge in early May, when the central bank allowed its currency to appreciate to help reach a trade deal with the US. The removal of political uncertainty in South Korea may also help support the won.
What Bloomberg Strategists Said...
'A weaker dollar and a steady, gradually appreciating yuan have underpinned KRW gains in recent weeks despite tariff risks. From a valuations lens, the won remains competitive. Its real effective exchange rate is still cheap relative to historical averages, leaving room for further appreciation without threatening export dynamics.'
— Mary Nicola, Macro Strategist, Singapore
While long euro trades are still popular, interest in the Australian dollar is growing, according to Troy Fraser, head of foreign-exchange sales for Australia and New Zealand at Citigroup Inc.. 'We have seen interest mainly from hedge fund clients to put on AUD/USD topside in the short tenors over the past few weeks,' he said.
One currency that traders appear less enthusiastic about is the yen. Appetite for long positions in the currency cooled after it tumbled versus the dollar in parts of May and June.
'USD/JPY short has certainly been a widow-maker,' said Antony Foster, head of Group-of-10 spot trading at Nomura International Plc in London. 'There are trade talks and politics involved which, once resolved, might help USD/JPY revert lower again, but whilst the risk is there, people are reluctant to really involve themselves.'
More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Hans India
33 minutes ago
- Hans India
BRICS Nations Respond to Trump's Ultimatum with Unified Pushback
The strong reaction from BRICS nations come after Donald Trump warned other countries against joining the group, threatening them with an additional 10 per cent tariff if they did. The verbal attacks on Trump were prompted by China, which said BRICS does not target any country and does not appreciate the use of BRICS nations anti-American policies as a tool of coercion. 'The countries are uniting to discuss new ways to participate in the definition of the new world economic order,' President Lula said at the end of the BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro. 'I think that's why the BRICS are making people uncomfortable,' he added. In an angry speech on Saturday, Trump accused the Trump vs BRICS nations– Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, along with Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Indonesia – of indulging in 'anti-American practices'. While the US President did not elaborate what those practices are, he had earlier said the US would slap '100 per cent tariffs' on Trump ultimatum BRICS nations for their attempt on de-dollarisation. Brazil's BRICS presidency had already nixed efforts to advance a common currency for the group. However, that did not stop President Lula from repeating on Monday that global trade needs alternatives. 'Obviously, we have to be responsible about doing that carefully. 'Negotiations are necessary between our central bank and other countries. 'It takes time for it to take root and mature,' he said. China too vented its displeasure over the ultimatum. 'BRICS' mechanism is an important platform for cooperation among emerging markets and developing countries; it advocates openness, inclusiveness, and win-win cooperation, and does not target any country,' said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning. 'Mao added. On the issue of Trump tariffs implemented under former US president Donald Trump, 'we have always said that trade conflicts are best settled through talks and not threats. The use of tariffs as leverage serves no one's interests,' Mao said
India.com
39 minutes ago
- India.com
After China, UK, now its India's turn…, Trump makes big statement over trade deal, will he target India too
Trump Tariff: Discussions are underway between the United States and India regarding trade, and an agreement may be reached soon. However, some countries may also receive tariff letters from the U.S. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that America is close to reaching a deal with India. He made this statement after announcing new tariffs on 14 countries, including Thailand, Myanmar, Bangladesh, South Korea, and Japan. These tariffs will come into effect from August 1. Talks between the U.S. and India on trade are ongoing, and a conclusion may be reached shortly. Trump Announces 35% Tariff On Bangladesh US President Donald Trump has announced a 35 per cent tariff on products imported from Bangladesh. In a letter to Bangladesh's Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus, Trump said that starting on August 1, 2025 'we will charge Bangladesh a tariff of only 35% on any and all Bangladeshi products sent into the United States, separate from all sectoral tariffs.' Trump further said that goods transshipped to evade a higher tariff will be subject to that higher tariff. Trumps Letter On Tariffs The Trump administration sent the first tranche of 'letters' to various countries on Monday, detailing the tariffs that the US will impose on products from them. The countries that got these letters, signed by Trump, were Bangladesh, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Cambodia, Indonesia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Malaysia, Serbia, South Africa, South Korea, Thailand and Tunisia. Will Donald Trump Send A Letter To PM Modi? According to media reports, Trump further said, 'We met with others and we don't think we'll be able to reach a deal. So, we're just sending them a letter. We're sending letters to various countries, informing them how much tariff they'll have to pay. Some might make slight adjustments, depending on whether they have a valid reason or not. We're not going to be unfair about it.' This clearly means that countries with whom the U.S. couldn't reach an agreement will be asked to pay tariffs. Some adjustments may be possible if a country provides a valid justification, but the U.S. will not act unfairly. In other words, if talks with India don't result in a deal, Trump may send a letter to India as well. (With Inputs From PTI)
Time of India
39 minutes ago
- Time of India
Trade tensions, not BRICS, are the bigger threat to global stability: Geoff Dennis
"The Chinese are desperate for the RMB to play a bigger role. But frankly, I do not see what the BRICS are doing or what they are trying to do represents a currency related threat to the US whatsoever," says Geoff Dennis , Independent EM Commentator. When we speak about the idea of de-dollarisation and we have seen countries like India for instance, we have publicly stated that we are not going to move away from the dollar and de-dollarisation is not a policy that India essentially is looking at. But is there an immediate threat to the United States or to the G7 group of nations from BRICS because Donald Trump is making these comments over and over again. So, do you anticipate an immediate threat A) to the dollar and, of course, to US' hegemony? Geoff Dennis: I do not believe so. This is an issue which has allegedly impacted markets for the best part of 50 years. I am an old guy, I have been around a long time and we were talking about potentially the Deutsche Mark replacing the US dollar as a key reserve currency or the key reserve currency in the late 70s and it has just never happened. Now, right now there is some evidence, of course, that central banks are diversifying out of the dollar. The Chinese are desperate for the RMB to play a bigger role. But frankly, I do not see what the BRICS are doing or what they are trying to do represents a currency related threat to the US whatsoever. I just do not get it frankly. And so, there is some de-dollarisation going on for sure, but I am not sure it is major and I am not sure it is involving the BRICS. In fact, frankly, my own interpretation of all of this is that anything that anybody does overseas, especially if countries get together is almost automatically defined by Trump is anti-America and there is nothing about what the BRICS are doing that is really seriously anti-America and this all boils down at the end of the day to the fact that I just think de-dollarisation is not something that is going to go far in the world even if the dollar's really truly dominant position has pulled back a little bit over the last few years. Given the fact that the reform Bretton Woods and reduce dollar reliance in fact is not new, but is BRICS gaining structural momentum this time in your opinion? Geoff Dennis: It is gaining structural momentum in the sense that you have got a number of other large countries as everybody knows joining BRICS that over and above the original BRICS which was defined by my old friend Jim O'Neill in 2001 which was, of course, just Brazil, Russia, India, China. There are some very important countries that have joined. But still I am not sure exactly what a BRICS summit achieves. Yes, they say all the right things about we support free trade. We condemn tariffs whatever it might be or non-tariff barriers, but as to how much power this group actually can demonstrate currently in the world economy especially against a US president who frankly is a bully to everybody who seems to threaten in some vague way the US dominant position of the world economy. Live Events So, I think it does not sort of matter to me within reason what the BRICS does at this point, whether it gets bigger, whether it gets smaller, whether a lot of presidents and heads of state come to the conferences or not. At the end of the day I do not think it has a lot of power except to say all the right things about trade policy and meanwhile President Trump is rampaging around the global economy like a bull in a China shop and the BRICS will become part of that unfortunately and yet, I do not know how the BRICS particularly fights back and I certainly do not see it as I said earlier being something that is going to turn into a brics-led currency, whatever reserve currency that is going to replace the dollar. The problem here is Trump's tariff policy and it is as simple as that frankly. ETMarkets WhatsApp channel )
