India's Russia oil imports slump, US crude purchases rise in July

Business Standard

5 days ago

Two months before American President Donald Trump unleashed his tariff and penalty war on India, Indian state-run oil refiners had started reducing purchases from Russia, sending the July import of Russian crude oil 22-27 per cent below that in June, according to refining sources and the ship-tracking data.
Import from Russia in July was around 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd), the lowest this year after February, compared to 1.95-2.1 million bpd in June, according to the data from maritime intelligence agencies Vortexa and Kpler, reviewed by Business Standard.
On the other hand, India's crude oil import in July, at 4.68 million bpd, declined by just less than 1 per cent from June. This shows sellers in West Asia, Africa, and the United States (US) have increased their share in the Indian market in July at the expense of Russia.
Trump on Wednesday announced a 25 per cent tariff on Indian goods and unspecified penalties for purchasing Russian oil and arms.
'If these new tariffs are enforced, combined with existing sector-specific tariffs on products like aluminium, steel and automobiles, the total effective US tariffs on Indian imports would rise to around 26.6 percentage points excluding penalties,' Goldman Sachs on Thursday said in a report. Crude-oil import from the US increased 23 per cent in July from June, accounting for 8 per cent of the total. This was much higher than the 3 per cent share in February, reflecting New Delhi's attempts to accommodate the Trump administration's agenda of higher US energy export.
But there may be trouble ahead as sanctions mount on India, both from the European Union (EU) and the US, said Vandana Hari, a Singapore-based energy expert. A fifth of tankers that delivered Russian oil to India in June were sanctioned this month by the EU, said Hari, founder of Vanda Insights, citing independent research data.
Two officials in state-run firms said Trump's tweet and lack of a definitive statement from New Delhi had created uncertainty over August deliveries of Russian oil, which were contracted at the end of June and were now on high seas, before EU sanctions were announced.
It is unclear if penalties will apply to existing shipments or new orders, the officials said.
In addition, it is unclear how well Rosneft-run Nayara Energy, which accounts for nearly 15 per cent of India's Russian crude oil import, can manage operations after being sanctioned by the EU.
Nayara has not commented on specific plans.
Trump cited India's high tariffs, non-monetary trade barriers, and the purchase of Russia's military equipment and energy as the reasons for imposing the 25 per cent tariffs plus penalty, Nomura Securities said in a note. This highlights his deeper geopolitical concern over India's Russia dependence, rather than just resolving tariff and non-tariff barriers, the brokerage added.
It maintained its FY26 growth forecast at 6.2 per cent in gross domestic product but flagged a downside risk of 20 basis points in case the tariffs get entrenched at these levels.
Russian share falls
Russian oil accounted for around 33 per cent of India's crude oil import in July, declining from a record of 45 per cent in June and 43 per cent a year earlier, the Kpler data showed.
Iraqi supplies of Basrah grades, India's second-highest source, rose 10 per cent during the period.
Iraq accounted for a fifth of India's July supplies, followed by Saudi Arabia at 15 per cent.
Indian Oil contributed largely to the decline in Russian oil purchases in July, with purchases by India's biggest refiner crashing by more than half to around 200,000 bpd in the month, the Kpler data shows.
Import by Reliance Industries, the biggest buyer of Russian oil, declined 17 per cent in the month to 618,000 bpd.
State-run refiners in July made the biggest cuts, with Hindustan Petroleum importing around 20,000 bpd, around a third of the June volumes.
Bharat Petroleum slashed purchases by 27 per cent during the period, the Kpler data showed.
June this year was an outlier for Russian oil import, said a Singapore-based oil analyst with a western commodity broker. Russian shipment averaged around 1.6 million bpd this year, she said. Purchases in June were the highest in two years, with summer months typically showing elevated purchases of Russian oil, the ship-tracking data showed.