Giant asteroid could crash into moon in 2032, firing debris towards Earth
If a giant asteroid smashes into the moon in 2032 it could send lunar debris hurtling towards Earth, researchers have said, posing a risk to satellites but also creating a rare and spectacularly vivid meteor shower visible in the skies.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 triggered a planetary defence response earlier this year after telescope observations revealed the 'city killer' had a 3% chance of colliding with Earth.
Later observations found the likelihood of the asteroid, estimated at about 53-67 metres (174-220ft) wide, hitting the Earth was negligibly low at 0.0017% – although the moon would still be under threat.
The odds of the space rock hitting Earth's nearest neighbour have since risen to 4.3%, according to data from the James Webb space telescope.
A study released this month by researchers from Canadian universities, which has not been peer reviewed, has mapped out how the asteroid's impact on the moon may shear off rocks that could head for Earth.
Researchers simulated how the impact could create a roughly 1km-diameter crater in the moon's surface and launch millions of kilograms of debris out of the moon's orbit and towards Earth, where it would arrive days later.
'If 2024 YR4 strikes the moon in 2032, it will (statistically speaking) be the largest impact in approximately 5,000 years,' the report said. 'The resulting meteor shower at Earth could be eye-catching.'
While many of the millimetre- to centimetre-sized lunar rocks would burn up in Earth's atmosphere and present no threat to humans, some material could be captured in Earth's orbit, presenting a hazard to satellites, spacecraft and astronauts.
The study's lead author, Dr Paul Wiegert of the University of Western Ontario, told Agence France-Presse that the impact on the moon's surface would be 'comparable to a large nuclear explosion in terms of the amount of energy released'.
'A centimetre-sized rock travelling at tens of thousands of metres per second is a lot like a bullet,' he added.
The findings showed that 'planetary defence considerations' should be extended to cover threats to areas far away from near-Earth space, the study said. Nasa and other national space agencies have long tracked asteroids and comets that could threaten the planet – and are working on ways to deal with a possible collision – but the moon is of secondary concern.
In 2022, Nasa conducted a test to divert an asteroid when it smashed its Double Asteroid Redirection Test (Dart) spacecraft into one named Dimorphos, successfully altering its orbit trajectory. The mission was seen as a test run for future celestial bodies that may be on a course for Earth.
Asteroid 2024 YR4, which orbits the sun, is now too far away to be properly observed and is not expected to be visible again until 2028, when researchers can reassess its size and trajectory.
Despite earlier concerns that an impact with the moon might alter its orbit around Earth, Nasa ruled out that scenario in April when it reassessed its size.
Agence France-Presse contributed to this report
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The Guardian
10 hours ago
- The Guardian
‘It's something that happens': are we doing enough to save Earth from a devastating asteroid strike?
It is a scenario beloved of Hollywood: a huge asteroid, several miles wide, is on a collision course with Earth. Scientists check and recheck their calculations but there is no mistake – civilisation is facing a cataclysmic end unless the space rock can be deflected. It may sound like science fiction, but it is a threat that is being taken seriously by scientists. Earlier this year, researchers estimated that asteroid YR4 2024 had a 3.1% chance of hitting Earth in 2032, before revising that likelihood down to 0.0017%. This week, new data suggested it was more likely to hit the moon, with a probability of 4.3%. If that happens, the 53- to 67-metre (174ft-220ft) asteroid previously called a 'city killer' will launch hundreds of tonnes of debris towards our planet, posing a risk to satellites, spacecraft and astronauts. Before that, in April 2029, 99942 Apophis – an asteroid larger than the Eiffel Tower – will be visible to the naked eye when it passes within 32,000km of Earth. This attention-grabbing close encounter has prompted the UN to designate 2029 as the international year of planetary defence. When it comes to apocalyptic asteroid strikes, there is precedent, of course. Most scientists believe such an event hastened the demise of non-avian dinosaurs 66m years ago. 'This is something that happens,' said Colin Snodgrass, a professor of planetary astronomy at the University of Edinburgh. 'Not very often, but it is something that happens. And it's something that we could potentially do something about.' As Chris Lintott, a professor of astrophysics at the University of Oxford, told the UK parliament's science, innovation and technology committee this week, the risk posed by an asteroid originating beyond our solar system is minimal. Instead, he said, the greater threat comes from those in our cosmic back yard. 'Most asteroids in the solar system exist in the asteroid belt, which is between Mars and Jupiter, but they become disrupted, usually by encounters with either of those planets, and they can move into orbits that cross the Earth,' said Lintott, who presents the long-running BBC astronomy series The Sky at Night. 'Then it's just a case of whether we're in the wrong place at the wrong time.' The chances of an enormous asteroid – the type that did for the dinosaurs – hitting Earth is admittedly low. 'We think there's one of these every 10m to 100m years, probably,' Lintott told the Guardian. 'So I think you'd be right to ignore that when you decide whether to get up on a Thursday morning or not.' Snodgrass said there were 'precisely four' asteroids big enough and close enough to Earth to be considered 'dino-killers', and added: 'We know where they are, and they're not coming anywhere near us.' But damage can also be done by smaller asteroids. According to Nasa, space rocks measuring about one to 20 metres across collided with Earth's atmosphere resulting in fireballs 556 times over 20 years. Many collisions have occurred over the oceans, but not all. 'Chelyabinsk is the best example,' Lintott said. In 2013, a house-sized space rock – thought to have been about 20 metres across – exploded in the air above the Russian city with a force of nearly 30 Hiroshima bombs, producing an airburst that caused significant damage and hundreds of injuries, mostly from broken glass. Less dramatically, in February 2021 a space rock thought to have been just tens of centimetres across broke up in Earth's atmosphere, with fragments landing in the Cotswold town of Winchcombe in the UK. Thankfully, the damage was confined to a splat mark on a driveway. The types of asteroids we should perhaps be most concerned about are those about 140 metres across. According to Nasa, asteroids around that size are thought to hit Earth about once every 20,000 years and have the potential to cause huge destruction and mass casualties. The space agency has a congressional mandate to detect and track near-Earth objects of this size and larger, and a suite of new technological advances are helping them do just that. On Monday, the first images from the Vera C Rubin observatory in Chile were released to the public. This telescope is expected to more than triple the number of known near-earth objects, from about 37,000 to 127,000, over a 10-year period. In just 10 hours of observations, it found seven previously unspotted asteroids that will pass close to the Earth – though none are expected to hit. Also in the offing, though not planned for launch before 2027, is Nasa's near-Earth object (Neo) surveyor. Armed with an array of infrared detectors, this is 'the first space telescope specifically designed to detect asteroids and comets that may be potential hazards to Earth', the agency says. Lintott said: 'Between those two, we should find everything down to about 140 metres.' He said such observations should give scientists up to 10 years' warning of a potential collision. The European Space Agency (Esa) is planning a near-Earth object mission in the infrared (Neomir) satellite. Slated for launch in the early 2030s, this will help detect asteroids heading towards Earth that are at least 20 metres in diameter and obscured by the sun. Assessing the emerging capabilities, Edward Baker, the planetary defence lead at the UK's National Space Operations Centre (NSpOC) at RAF High Wycombe, said: 'I think we're in a good place. I can't see a situation like [the film] Don't Look Up materialising at all – though I wouldn't mind being portrayed by Leonardo DiCaprio.' As our ability to spot near-Earth asteroids increases, Lintott said, we should get used to hearing about asteroids like YR4 2024, which initially seem more likely to hit Earth before the risk rapidly falls towards zero. He described the shifting probabilities as similar to when a footballer takes a free kick. 'The moment they kick it, [it looks like] it could go anywhere,' he said. 'And then as it moves, you get more information. So you're like: 'Oh, it might go in the goal,' and then it inevitably becomes really clear that it's going to miss.' Of course, scientists aren't just monitoring the risks to Earth. They are also making plans to protect it. In 2022, Nasa crashed a spacecraft into a small, harmless asteroid called Dimorphos that orbits a larger rock called Didymos to test whether it would be possible to shift its path. The Dart mission was a success, reducing Dimorphos's 12-hour orbit around Didymos by 32 minutes. In 2024, Esa launched a follow-up to Nasa's Dart mission, called Hera. This will reach Dimorphos in 2026 and carry out a close-up 'crash site investigation'. It will survey the Dart impact crater, probe how effectively momentum was transferred in the collision and record a host of other measurements. Esa hopes this will provide crucial insights that can be used to make deliberate Dart-style impacts a reliable technique for safeguarding Earth. 'Dart was much more effective than anyone expected it to be,' Lintott said. 'And presumably that's something to do with the structure of the asteroid. I think we need to know whether Dart just got lucky with its target, or whether all near-Earth asteroids are like this.' For the most part, scientists say the threat of an asteroid strike does not keep them up at night. 'We're safer than we've ever been and we're about to get a lot safer, because the more of these things we find, the more we can spot them on the way in,' Lintott said. As Esa has quipped on its merchandise: 'Dinosaurs didn't have a space agency.'
Daily Mirror
10 hours ago
- Daily Mirror
Huge asteroid hurtles towards the Moon and could spark 'massive consequences'
NASA says the 10-storey YR4 asteroid could hit the Moon in 2032, which could see global communications come to a complete standstill as debris makes its way into the atmosphere and destroys satellites A huge asteroid that was thought to be heading towards earth is actually on course for the moon - which could wreak digital havoc across the planet. The city killer YR4 asteroid - which is the size of a 10-storey building - was first spotted at the end of 2024 and was said to have a three per cent chance of hitting the Earth. NASA's Centre for Near Earth Object Studies has now adjusted its prediction, giving the asteroid a 4.3 per cent chance of smashing into the moon as early as 2032. What makes it more terrifying is that the probability has been steadily increasing, after NASA gave it a 3.8 per cent probability in April and 1.7 per cent in February. According to experts, if the rock did make contact with the moon, it would have similar fallout to an atomic bomb. Scientists believe it would spark a meteor shower that could threaten our satellite systems. Australian National University astrologist and cosmologist, Brad Tucker, said just because the asteroid is no longer heading for Earth, it could still cause irreparable damage to the planet. 'So, when the odds shifted away from the earth they shifted towards the moon, it's still only four per cent - it's not even four per cent [it's] just about that - it's almost 1 in 25. That's enough that you want to pay attention to,' Mr Tucker said. It's unlikely that any fragments would plummeted to Earth, there is a possibility that some debris could enter our atmosphere - putting a number of vital satellites at risk of destruction. 'We're not worried about it hitting the ground because it would be so small our atmosphere would absorb it; there's actually a worry it may hit all of those satellites that we have going around us and that would cause a problem,' Mr Tucker tells Sky Australia. 'There could be a massive consequence in relation to them breaking up and creating their own ring of debris. We shouldn't just think about the earth in terms of safety, we really must think about the Moon as well.' Mr Tucker explained that new studies show how a strike with the moon could see huge amounts of debris being pulled into the atmosphere. Once there, it would make it 1,000 times more likely for a satellite to be hit. 'So it's one of those downward scenarios where we are thinking because of the way earth is now set up it actually may still have an impact," he said. In the event of a satellite strike, the sudden loss could wreak havoc on the ground. Global connectivity would be completely lost, as would navigation systems, financial markets and military operations. YR4 would be the largest space rock to hit the Moon in around 5,000 years, according to solar system dynamics expert Dr Paul Wiegert. Its collosal size means it would easily take out a space station or satellite, he said.
Geeky Gadgets
12 hours ago
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Forget Lithium Batteries : Sodium-Based Fuel Cells Are Here
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From its ability to capture carbon dioxide to its dynamic weight-reduction feature, the sodium-based fuel cell offers a glimpse into a cleaner, more efficient future for air travel. But the story is far from complete—questions about environmental impact and thermal management remain unanswered. Could this technology truly transform aviation, or will its limitations ground its potential? Let's explore the possibilities and complexities of this innovative innovation. Sodium Fuel Cell Innovation The Importance of Energy Density in Aviation Energy density is a crucial factor in aviation, directly influencing the range and efficiency of electric aircraft. The sodium-based fuel cell achieves an impressive energy density of 1,000–1,400 Wh/kg, significantly surpassing the 200–300 Wh/kg range of traditional lithium-ion batteries. This four- to fivefold increase could enable electric aircraft to undertake longer flights, meeting one of the aviation industry's most pressing requirements. While increasing the sodium fuel supply can further enhance energy density, it introduces a trade-off: a reduction in power density. Balancing energy storage with power output is a key engineering challenge that must be resolved to make this technology viable for commercial aviation. Addressing this issue will require innovative design solutions and advanced materials to optimize performance without compromising efficiency. The Inner Workings of the Sodium-Based Fuel Cell The sodium-based fuel cell is built around a straightforward yet innovative design, consisting of three primary components: Molten Sodium Fuel: Heated to approximately 100°C (200°F), molten sodium serves as both the fuel and a critical element of the system. Heated to approximately 100°C (200°F), molten sodium serves as both the fuel and a critical element of the system. Beta-Alumina Solid Electrolyte (BASE): This specialized material allows sodium ions to pass through while generating electricity, acting as the core mechanism of the fuel cell. This specialized material allows sodium ions to pass through while generating electricity, acting as the core mechanism of the fuel cell. Porous Nickel-Based Foam Cathode: Assists the electrochemical reactions required to produce power efficiently. During operation, sodium ions migrate through the solid electrolyte, generating electricity as the sodium fuel is consumed. This design eliminates the need for heavy, pressurized hydrogen tanks, offering a lighter and more practical alternative to traditional fuel cells. The simplicity of the system also reduces manufacturing complexity, potentially lowering production costs and improving scalability. MIT Sodium Fuel Cell Explained Watch this video on YouTube. Dive deeper into energy with other articles and guides we have written below. Environmental Impacts and Sustainability One of the most compelling aspects of this technology is its potential environmental benefits. The sodium-based fuel cell produces water and sodium hydroxide as byproducts. Sodium hydroxide reacts with atmospheric carbon dioxide to form sodium bicarbonate, commonly known as baking soda. This reaction offers two notable environmental advantages: Carbon Capture: The process could contribute to reducing carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, aiding efforts to combat climate change. The process could contribute to reducing carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, aiding efforts to combat climate change. Ocean Deacidification: By neutralizing excess carbon dioxide, the technology could help mitigate the effects of ocean acidification, a growing environmental concern. However, the localized distribution of these byproducts raises questions about their long-term environmental impact. Further research is essential to evaluate and mitigate any unintended ecological consequences, making sure that the technology aligns with broader sustainability goals. Advantages Over Existing Energy Systems The sodium-based fuel cell offers several distinct advantages compared to current energy storage and generation technologies: No Pressurized Storage: Unlike hydrogen fuel cells, the sodium-based system does not require high-pressure tanks or cryogenic storage, significantly reducing weight and cost. Unlike hydrogen fuel cells, the sodium-based system does not require high-pressure tanks or cryogenic storage, significantly reducing weight and cost. Dynamic Weight Reduction: As the sodium fuel is consumed during operation, the system becomes progressively lighter. This feature mirrors the fuel consumption dynamics of conventional jet engines, enhancing efficiency and performance in aviation applications. These advantages position the sodium-based fuel cell as a promising alternative to lithium-ion batteries and hydrogen fuel cells, particularly for long-range electric flights. Its lightweight design and high energy density could enable electric aircraft to achieve unprecedented levels of efficiency and performance. Challenges and Areas for Improvement Despite its potential, the sodium-based fuel cell faces several technical and practical challenges that must be addressed to enable widespread adoption: Low Power Density: The current prototype achieves a power density of only 40 W/kg, far below the levels required for commercial aviation. Enhancing power density is critical to making the technology competitive with existing systems. The current prototype achieves a power density of only 40 W/kg, far below the levels required for commercial aviation. Enhancing power density is critical to making the technology competitive with existing systems. Thermal Management: Maintaining the molten sodium at operational temperatures requires advanced thermal management systems, adding complexity and potential inefficiencies to the design. Maintaining the molten sodium at operational temperatures requires advanced thermal management systems, adding complexity and potential inefficiencies to the design. Environmental Concerns: While the carbon capture potential is promising, the localized impact of byproducts such as sodium bicarbonate needs thorough evaluation to ensure ecological safety. Overcoming these challenges will require significant advancements in materials science, engineering, and environmental research. Collaborative efforts between academia, industry, and government will be essential to accelerate the development and deployment of this promising technology. Applications and Commercialization Efforts The sodium-based fuel cell holds significant promise for the aviation industry, particularly for long-haul electric flights. Air travel accounts for approximately 10% of global transportation emissions, making it a critical target for decarbonization. By offering a lightweight, high-energy alternative to existing technologies, this innovation could play a pivotal role in reducing emissions and operational costs in the aviation sector. To bring this technology to market, a startup named Propel Aero has been established. Led by experienced clean-tech innovators, Propel Aero aims to refine the sodium-based fuel cell and scale it for commercial use. While the path to commercialization is fraught with challenges, the involvement of dedicated industry players underscores the technology's potential to transform electric aviation. As research and development efforts continue, the sodium-based fuel cell could emerge as a cornerstone of the next generation of sustainable aviation technologies. Its unique combination of high energy density, cost-effectiveness, and environmental benefits positions it as a compelling solution for the future of air travel. Media Credit: Ziroth Filed Under: Technology News, Top News Latest Geeky Gadgets Deals Disclosure: Some of our articles include affiliate links. If you buy something through one of these links, Geeky Gadgets may earn an affiliate commission. Learn about our Disclosure Policy.
