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Daily Maverick
08-07-2025
- Politics
- Daily Maverick
Inside the Trump administration's diplomatic vanishing act at Antarctic Treaty meeting
The 1959 pact — America's brainchild — may be humanity's greatest geopolitical feat, governing the only continent never to see war. Now, as China pulls ahead in polar science, the US may be sabotaging its role in the show that runs the snow. Washington was, for decades, the seemingly implacable keystone of Antarctic governance. But the US delegation failed to table a single discussion paper at the 47th Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting (ATCM). The Milan-hosted meeting — which deliberated the future of Antarctic science, conservation and tourism projects — was held between 24 June and 3 July. But the meeting is also about geopolitics, a continent carved up into territorial slices larger than Greenland. And it's about managing the expectations of the influential countries who made those claims, which remain frozen under the treaty. This dramatic drop in engagement — from contributing over 10% of working and information papers at the 2024 ATCM in India, to offering only the depository-state procedural note in 2025 — seems to mark a striking collapse in US participation in Antarctic diplomacy. Answers to our request for comment were not received by the deadline on Tuesday, 8 July. Virtuoso to metronome 'It has tabled only one paper. That paper is the one it tables every year as the depository, the responsible state for the 1959 treaty and the Madrid Protocol,' said Professor Alan Hemmings, an Antarctic governance expert at Canterbury University in New Zealand. 'This is done by a very professional part of the State Department for all the treaties for which the US is depository.' The meeting document database, locked during the Milan ATCM, flushes out what had been feared by observers ahead of the event. The US registered late and offered little more than that. 'If you want a comparison,' Hemmings proposed, 'at last year's ATCM in India there were something like 249 main papers, working papers or information papers. The US was contributing more than 10% of the total significant diplomatic papers for the ATCM.' Today there are 29 treaty signatories with vetoes at the decision-making table. To get there, you're meant to do a lot of science. But — once you're there — there is no legal obligation to keep doing a lot of science (there is also no agreement on what a lot of science is). Those signatories include Australia, China, Germany, the UK, Russia and South Africa. Watch: Antarctica's Precipice — Reimagining the South Pole without US Commitment In a webinar hosted by Daily Maverick ahead of the tightly sealed, closed-door meeting in the Italian fashion capital, Hemmings had warned of looming US dysfunction in the world's most prestigious scientific pact. With just two weeks to go, he said, he had heard from 'a considerable number of people' that the US had only just confirmed its delegation. Its agenda papers had been a no-show. Now available for public scrutiny, the meeting database confirms that Hemmings, a working scientist and academic in Antarctica since the early 1980s, was correct. The delegation had also not secured a bureaucratic green light essential to engaging meaningfully in treaty talks. 'It had not got the sign-off for its brief. So, what it is able to do without that is not at all clear,' he suggested at the time. Perpetual dissonance Hemmings highlighted 'chaos' stemming from the Trump administration's faltering approach to polar science, suggesting that the apparent dysfunction had trickled down to treaty preparations. 'On a positive note, there's a degree of consistency here,' Hemmings quipped. 'There's a sort of chaotic approach in relation to ice-strengthened and ice-breaking vessels. 'There's obviously chaos in relation to the administration's approach to science generally, including polar science in both polar regions, but significant in the Antarctic as well.' Asked why Donald Trump's 2026 financial year budget request seeks to cancel the lease for the Nathaniel B. Palmer, the only back-up to the Antarctic icebreaker Polar Star, fellow webinar panellist Professor Klaus Dodds noted 'you've got to find some third-party leasing pretty jolly quickly or else you're going to be in trouble in terms of supporting your polar programme'. The Royal Holloway, University of London, geographer is an expert in Antarctic geopolitics. 'You can't do these things on the fly,' Dodds pointed out. 'And my fear is that this is all part of engineering crisis, chaos and havoc. Of course, it then ushers in further cuts and reductions and you somehow blame it on those who've been given a terrible legacy to deal with.' 'Ghost in the machine' The discussion documents submitted ahead of the meeting may now be public. However, the minutes of the live closed-d0or talks will likely only be viewable in a few months. Perhaps more worrying than delegation's flagged meeting performance is its reported disengagement from the treaty's intersessional period — the months between formal meetings where much of the substantive negotiation and collaboration occur. According to Hemmings, 'the US has been largely absent from the intersessional discussions since the last ATCM'. Thus, a Western leader of the Antarctic Treaty System effectively absented itself from shaping the continent's future over the past year. The academic described the US as a 'major player in the history of the ATS ' — and now a fading 'ghost in the machine'. 'Poisoned chalice' Several factors appear to have converged to produce this diplomatic snafu. As Hemmings noted, the delegation in Milan was likely smaller than usual and stripped of its long-standing NGO participants — including, reportedly for the first time in nearly three decades, representatives from the International Association of Antarctica Tour Operators (Iaato). Even the top US officials attending were relatively new to their leadership roles. Head delegate Ona Hahs, a lawyer by background, was only attending her second ATCM. The new US representative to the Committee for Environmental Protection (CEP) was doing so for the first time. 'These kinds of transitions happen,' Hemmings acknowledged, 'but in addition to all these other problems, there are these new people who have been given a poisoned chalice.' Missing section at the 'higher levels', sagging symphony Sustained disengagement by the US threatens to weaken the balance of power within the ATS. President Joe Biden's former Antarctic policy chief, William Muntean pointed out that 'no new administration has Antarctica high on its to-do list'. Yet, 'previous new administrations have allowed professional Antarctic experts to meaningfully engage on Antarctic issues. 'By submitting no papers to the ATCM, it appears that the higher levels of the US Department of State were concerned enough by routine action to block that normal engagement, but not interested enough to provide alternative positions.' Pianissimo on purpose: 'At the mercy of other countries' Now an analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Muntean argued that the absence of papers did not mean the US no longer supported the treaty or Antarctica. 'However, if the US does not shift its Antarctica policy into gear, it will remain adrift and lose influence in the region and the ATCM, which will leave advancing its interests at the mercy of other countries.' According to a preliminary paper on 2025 Antarctic research trends — led by the University of the Arctic — China is now the world leader in south polar science. 'There's a considerable lowering of expectations,' Hemmings added. 'Good people hope the US doesn't try to say very much. And that tells you everything … He noted that 'so many' officials were 'anxious about not attracting the attention of people higher in the administration'. This year, silence may have passed. 'For now the US can get away with this,' Hemmings said. 'What will it be like next year?' DM
Daily Maverick
24-06-2025
- Politics
- Daily Maverick
Top Antarctic meeting kicks off behind ‘Ice Curtain' as transparency goes up in flames
Antarctica's fate is debated in secrecy behind closed doors and confusion in Milan. The world's premier meeting on the governance of Earth's most threatened continent — representing 10% of the planet — opened today in Milan behind closed doors. The 47th Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting (ATCM) involves 29 consultative states — including the US, China, Russia and South Africa — which gather annually to deliberate the future of the frozen, but melting, wilderness. There are also 29 observer states with no decision-making powers. During the course of the next week and a half, the decision-maker states will debate a range of governance matters relating to the Antarctic as part of a 1959 treaty which is devoted to peaceful activities like science and tourism. Under the treaty's environmental constitution, the Madrid Protocol, mining is banned. The live substance of the meeting, seen as diplomatically sensitive, has always been held behind closed doors. According to some sources, only 30 minutes of the 150-minute opening plenary of the ATCM on Tuesday morning were public. However, according to the meeting rules, the entire 'opening plenary session shall be held in public, other sessions shall be held in private, unless the Meeting shall determine otherwise'. No decisions have been published on the committee's website to indicate why the opening plenary was closed or partially closed. The meeting is hosted in alphabetical order by a different consultative state every year. This year hosted under a far-right coalition government led by Giorgia Meloni and her party, Brothers of Italy, the meeting's organising committee has yet to respond to Daily Maverick's repeated questions about how to access the now-concluded opening plenary — first sent in August 2024. And yet the British Antarctic Survey this month released science showing that it's not just South Pole transparency that seems to be going up in flames. According to the scientific agency, the population of emperor penguins — whose protection China and Russia have blocked at the consultative meeting in recent years — has declined 22% over the 15 years to 2024. The reported plunge in numbers of these iconic flightless ambassadors relates to a 'key sector of the continent' of the West Antarctic. 'This compares with an earlier estimate — 2009 and 2018 — of a 9.5% reduction across Antarctica as a whole,' the agency reports. In another study released this week, the agency reveals that Signy Island seal populations have sharply declined by about 50% over 50 years — a trend that is 'strongly linked to shifts in sea ice; when it forms and melts each year, and how long it lasts'. Next year, the meeting will be hosted by Japan. A prominent Japanese polar academic, Kobe University's Professor Akiho Shibata, is in Milan this week and reported on his Facebook page that multiple delegates were kicked out of the treaty's environmental protection committee session on Monday. 'A confusion at the beginning with just too small a room (Brown Hall) with too few chairs; those standing, including me, were ordered to leave the room for security reasons!' exclaimed Shibata, an Antarctic law expert. In a twist that would be farcical if the ecological and geopolitical stakes were not so high, Shibata added: 'Because of that, I could not observe an important discussion on 'Enhancing the Transparency in the ATCM and CEP [Committee for Environmental Protection] proposed by the Netherlands, Australia and Korea — more media access to the meetings; more proactive public outreach; and possible increase of experts).' Shibata, an accredited delegate, wrote earlier this week: 'Very difficult to find the way in, with a lot of construction going on.' He advised: 'Have extra time to come on Monday for CEP and Tuesday for plenary.' The meeting has been criticised by other experts for its 'Ice Curtain' approach — a phrase coined by Tasmania-based polar author and journalist Andrew Darby. Unlike the high-profile UN Ocean Conference held in Nice, France, earlier this month, the Antarctic meeting was not broadly advertised. The Antarctic Treaty is not part of the UN. When asked, South African official Ashley Johnson promptly replied to our queries, but seemed as mystified as the press. For streaming details of the opening plenary, Johnson suggested that we contact the organising committee, which has not responded to our questions. Despite being sent multiple unaddressed emails requesting information on media access to the public session, organising committee official Orazio Guanciale last month claimed that Italy was 'still waiting for … say … receiving the interest of members of the press to participate in the public session of Tuesday, 24 June'. 'Of course we are open to facilitate to the maximum extent possible the participation of the press and … say … the broadcasting of the public session.' He noted: 'The issue of transparency is really very, very important … say … the Antarctic Treaty embodies the principle of transparency… ' Per tradition, the documents discussed at the meeting are to be unlocked on the secretariat archive directly after the talks on 3 June — however, the actual live minutes will only be released after scrutiny by the consultative states some months later. 'Closed discussions can be useful for facilitating open discussion and exchange of ideas. However, this has to be balanced with the need for transparency and accountability,' Claire Christian, executive director of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean Coalition, a network of NGOs, told Daily Maverick. 'Other international organisations have implemented various practices to promote transparency without compromising their effectiveness or ability to have productive discussions. As an example, papers for the meeting could be made publicly available ahead of the meeting so that the public could better understand the issues that are being discussed.' DM
Daily Maverick
24-06-2025
- Politics
- Daily Maverick
SA charges into Antarctic talks — ‘Not a pacifist' but definitely pro-penguin
Pretoria asserts leadership as Africa's only consultative state to South Pole pact, pushing for stronger science and protection The 47th Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting (ATCM) kicks off in Milan, Italy, on Tuesday, and South Africa — still the only African country with decision-making status — has signalled a pivot in tone and substance. Ashley Johnson of South Africa's Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (DFFE), will lead the national delegation to the annual closed meeting of 29 states who make all the big decisions on Antarctica's present and future. This will be Johnson's first ATCM. In an interview with Daily Maverick, Johnson acknowledged criticisms of South Africa's underwhelming ATCM performance in recent years. Yet, he says his mandate now is to reestablish South Africa as a conservation-minded, science-driven actor — a credible voice for the African continent. 'I'm not a pacifist,' says Johnson, an oceanographer by training and acting director for research and specialist monitoring in DFFE's oceans and coasts division. 'I cannot attend a meeting and say nothing. I'm now surrounded by a competent team from DFFE, the science department and international relations, and a diplomat from South Africa's embassy in Italy. 'Our agenda for this meeting is to be the African voice.' While new to the treaty system, Johnson says he is no stranger to diplomacy. Among others, he stresses his role in establishing South Africa as a more prominent force at Unesco's Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission in 2005. 'South Africa became the leader of the Africa group,' he says, 'and commission vice-chair.' From observer to influencer In 2024, South Africa failed to submit a single independent paper at the ATCM — a marked absence compared to the multiple submissions from other consultative parties. (For instance, Russia and Australia submitted 10 and 15, respectively.) This year, Johnson's team is involved in no fewer than eight ATCM papers— five independent and three co-sponsored submissions on science, conservation, compliance and Antarctic gateway operations. 'I was asked by DFFE Minister Dion George to lead the delegation to turn things on their head,' he says. George, a member of the Democratic Alliance, had inherited the department's reins from the ANC with the establishment of the coalition government one year ago. 'I said I'm not going to a meeting where we will not submit anything.' One proposal seeks area protection for emperor penguins — a bold statement given that Antarctica's most iconic flightless birds are a geopolitical minefield, with China and Russia habitually using the ATCM to block their protection. Another paper, tabled with Australia as lead proponent, outlines a plan to 'create a network amongst the Antarctic gateway cities in Australia, New Zealand, Chile and Argentina to learn from each other'. Johnson says his own plan includes working with the city of Cape Town to build a dedicated space — like a museum— to give the chart-topping tourist destination a more recognisable Antarctic identity. 'The team has really worked,' says Johnson. 'I want to break this mold.' A voice for 'conservation' South Africa's negotiating position at the ATCM, according to Johnson, is led by three lodestars: protection, conservation and 'responsible use'. 'The original idea behind the Antarctic Treaty System was to maintain the Antarctic as a peaceful environment not to be disturbed, not owned by anyone,' says Johnson, which represents a delegation that rejects the idea of colonial-style territorial claims. 'Conservation and protection were the premise for establishing it,' he argues. Mining is banned in Antarctica, but one state concedes it has pursued the ' overwhelming majority ' of oil and gas resource prospecting there, citing both geopolitical intent and, when questioned by Daily Maverick, legal scientific research. That state is Russia, whose Rosgeo mineral explorer has actively searched for oil and gas in the Southern Ocean over decades — using Cape Town as a logistics port to announce in 2020 some 70 billion tons of hydrocarbons off East Antarctica. (It did not mention recoverability estimates.) In a recent Daily Maverick webinar, experts argued that these operations are ' mineral resource activities '. 'The science we conduct in the Antarctic must be done in a responsible manner,' counters Johnson, thus suggesting an environmental negotiating position that opposes such activities. 'And we would always then expect that from the other treaty members.' Revamping the South African National Antarctic Programme? On a recent demonstration cruise aboard the country's national polar research vessel, the SA Agulhas II, Minister George described himself as the head of the South African National Antarctic Programme. Every DFFE minister is, in fact, the head of the Antarctic division, but rarely have ministers in charge of this department since the advent of democracy in 1994 linked themselves to the polar portfolio in such direct terms. And so it is Johnson's job to report to George and sort out the infrastructure humdingers Daily Maverick flagged at South Africa's sub-Antarctic research station in March. Among others, we uncovered failing diesel generators at the Marion Island base, since replaced, and fears among scientists that fragmented management would be the death knell of the entire programme. When asked, Johnson says a streamlined approach for South Africa's operational and research interests is both practical and symbolic of a new chapter. 'The interdependencies are too big for them to be separated,' he says. 'The last few months have been used to create a process that is inculcated into the memory of the system, rather than being dependent on any one individual.' South Africa's ace: A top icebreaker and the Southern Ocean The thing that gets Johnson waxing lyrical more than any other is oceanography. Beneath the tip of the African continent churns one of the most scientifically prized ocean systems on Earth. It's here that warm and cold currents from the Indian and Atlantic Oceans collide, and massive eddies spin off into global circulation patterns. 'To deconstruct all that scientifically takes a lot of effort,' says Johnson. At the centre of this footprint is the SA Agulhas II, the country's icebreaking research and logistics vessel. Johnson says he wants to reposition the ship as a high-performance scientific platform and a diplomatic asset. In 2022, she was used to track down Sir Ernest Shackleton's Endurance wreck. New collaborations are being discussed, including joint research with French and Norwegian scientists during upcoming voyages. 'I want the vessel to be used as optimally as possible,' Johnson says, citing student training as a national priority. South Africa steps ahead, the US steps back In June, the South African anti-apartheid activist and lawyer Cormac Cullinan netted the Royal Geographical Society's Shackleton medal for a campaign to transform the Antarctic environment into a legal person who can be defended in court. That makes this South African the first-ever Antarctic winner of the prestigious polar medal that has traditionally focused on the Arctic. The Pretoria University-educated Professor Steven Chown, based at Australia's Monash University since 2012, is one of the world's most cited Antarctic scientists with an H-Index of 112. But while South Africa, despite tectonic social problems, continues to invest in its polar footprint, the US — the treaty's architect — has proposed a 71% budget cut for polar research in the 2026 financial year. Given Trump's obsession with expanding the US icebreaker fleet, most puzzling is the decision to end the lease of the Nathaniel B Palmer — the sole back-up to the aging US Polar Star icebreaker. Usually cautious experts have suggested that the US may even withdraw from the treaty to claim and mine the continent. Asked about the US withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement, Johnson says: 'Irrespective of what the Trump administration thinks about climate change, South Africa's management regime is built on reliable science. 'I don't see why — together with all other member states who believe in what the science is telling us — we need to change our position on climate change.' Authoritarian allies in Milan The treaty is the only existing legal dam holding back a neocolonial land grab. On the other hand, the ATCM's insistence on holding its annual talks behind closed doors, and preventing the press from observing the substance of those talks, are reliable indicators of this system's insecurities. Make no mistake: the 'frozen' territories claimed by seven states may seem out of sight at the bottom of the planet, but to the claimants they are massively important. Canberra's wedge is almost three times larger than Greenland. The overlapping slice counterclaimed by Buenos Aires, London and Santiago? It also eclipses Greenland by about three times. It may be within the interest of these influential states, then, to keep critics outside the room. As the second country after the UK to ratify the treaty on 21 June 1960, Pretoria may be one such possible insider critic, as it takes a dim view of neocolonial ambitions in the southern regions. So, can it adopt a more assertive position in Milan — one that mirrors its tough stance on Israel's incursions into Gaza? Or does it remain compromised as long as it refuses to condemn Moscow's illegal actions in Ukraine, a fellow consultative party? President Cyril Ramaphosa received President Volodymyr Zelensky in April and Cape Town has served as the refuge for Ukraine's polar vessel, the Noosfera, since February 2022. For Johnson, South Africa's 'non-aligned' stance is a negotiating strength with the most obstructive actors at the negotiating table. 'We want a much more active engagement with the Russian and Chinese delegations,' Johnson notes. 'Perhaps we can edge them closer to a conservationist approach.' He is adamant: 'It's not going to change our position … 'We have always been peace brokers as a country — so what I'd like to do this year is find out what are those things they are prepared to give up in order to gain something else? And then see if South Africa is comfortable with it.' DM
