Latest news with #AI-exposed
Herald Sun
30-06-2025
- Business
- Herald Sun
Hamish Douglass says AI could wipe out half the index
Magellan co-founder Hamish Douglass said the AI revolution will be remembered for the ripple effects that lie further ahead, one of them potentially being a Wall Street wrecking ball that puts even the most analogue businesses at risk. Artificial intelligence will recast the sharemarket, just not in the way most people think. Mr Douglass is a private investor since leaving Magellan in 2022, 16 years after he founded the global fund manager with Chris Mackay. He championed stocks like Microsoft and Alphabet in his era at the top of the global equities manager. Today, he is decidedly more bearish and challenged the optimism promoted by AI evangelists, like the propensity to minimise its effect on employment. 'Now is the most exciting and the most frightening time to be an investor in my lifetime,' Mr Douglass told The Australian. 'You may have half the index virtually collapse by 50, 60 or 70 per cent in share price in the next five to 10 years because businesses are so disrupted.' The devastating consequences he foresees include mass joblessness and an unprecedented slump in demand. 'AI is going to be hugely disruptive, but it's not going to become apparent for about five years. Working out ahead of the rest of the market which companies will be the winners and the losers is more important today than it's ever been.' Alongside the dramatic shift brought about by AI, he is surveying rising tensions in the geopolitical landscape, too. Amid the headlines documenting the Iran-Israel war, he is alert to the risk that China invades Taiwan. 'Two of the greatest companies in the world at the moment, Nvidia and TSMC, are hugely exposed to the Taiwanese question. As a fund manager, how do you calibrate and risk weight and position yourself around the possibility of that happening? We're not talking 50 years out. This is probably within a five-year time frame. That risk is a very real risk,' he said. Passive funds would be hugely exposed in such a scenario. 'Passive doesn't predict the future, it doesn't predict the winners and losers. I wouldn't be totally surprised if, in aggregate, the markets go backwards or don't do anything over the next 10 years, but people in the right positions could make a fortune.' Near-term, Mr Douglass is in agreement that the most AI-exposed industries include advertising, entertainment, accounting, law and consulting. Funds management could suffer too, since AI can do the work of analysts but cheaper and faster. 'There will be people who are earning hundreds of thousands of dollars a year and within five to 10 years, maybe 50 to 70 per cent of those jobs just will not exist anymore,' Mr Douglass warned. 'What happens then to demand for goods and services? We used to own LVMH. If you go five to 10 years out and you start mass losses over a five to 10 year frame, when 20, 30 or 40 per cent of the professional workforce around the world don't have jobs, who's going to be spending $6,000 on a handbag? 'As you accelerate this over time, businesses you think are wonderful today, you start saying to yourself, 'what happens if the customers don't have the money?'' There will be a version of this dilemma undermining most sectors, Mr Douglass predicted. 'I love a business like Hilton. But they predominantly serve small and medium-sized businesses for business travel in the US. So what happens if 30 or 40 per cent of these businesses have laid off their workforces in 10 years time? What's the demand going to be for business travel when there's less people employed?' White-collar jobs are already being encroached upon. Tech giants Amazon, Meta and Intel are among those that have announced mass lay-offs this year. Closer to home, CEOs including Commonwealth Bank's Matt Comyn and Telstra's Vicki Brady have been alert to the AI reality and the opportunity to reallocate labour. Mr Douglass had little optimism that AI will create the new jobs optimists have described. 'Some of the large tech executives are out there publicly saying, 'oh, well jobs are always to be found'. But that's not what they're saying privately. In private they're saying, 'these jobs are gone forever',' Mr Douglass said. The so-called godfather of AI, Geoffrey Hinton, suggested tradespeople such as plumbers would have more secure employment in an AI-dominated future but Mr Douglass said that's not strictly true. For governments, a flow-on effect of mass job cuts includes surging benefit claims, slumping taxation revenue and ballooning budget deficits. Consumer demand will evaporate, he warned. 'Positioning yourself for the medium term has never been more important because the markets can react very savagely and very quickly when something starts becoming obvious,' he said. Safer options could include the likes of McDonald's and Amazon the stockpicker said, with the caveat neither were firm predictions. 'McDonald's may well be fine because it's down the discretionary income curve, and people need to eat. Supermarkets may be fine, Amazon may be fine; they own a physical distribution network and we're going to have to consume food. 'And if something's disrupted, you want to exit. You don't want to be in Kodak at the end.' Originally published as Magellan co-founder Hamish Douglass's grim artificial intelligence warning: 'Half the index could collapse'
The Star
25-06-2025
- Health
- The Star
It's still 'too soon' to say how AI will affect jobs, researchers say
BERLIN: Using artificial intelligence at work has not caused any discernible damage to employees' mental health or job satisfaction, according to researchers based in Germany, Italy and the US, who nonetheless warn that it is probably "way too soon to draw definitive conclusions" about its effects on jobs. "So far, we find little evidence that AI adoption has undermined workers' well-being on average," said Luca Stella of the University of Milan and the Berlin School of Economics. Alarm has been growing over companies' increasingly enthusiastic deployment of chatbots and their possible impact on employment if workers are rendered obsolete by software and machines – and if so-called humanoid robots with AI are mass-produced. "Public anxiety about AI is real, but the worst-case scenarios are not inevitable," Stella said. The team cautioned that their work focused on Germany, where AI adoption appears to be behind other countries but where labour laws and rights are arguably stronger. Published by Nature Scientific Reports, Stella and colleagues' research found that there may be a link between using AI and reported "modest improvements in worker physical health" - a trend that seems to "particularly" be the case for people without a university degree. The reported improvement in some workers' physical health is likely down to "declining job physical intensity and overall job risk in some of the AI-exposed occupations," the team said. But the team's journal article says their work used "longitudinal survey data from Germany (2000–2020)," meaning it covered years before the widespread availability of so-called "generative" AI such as ChatGPT, starting in late 2022. A recent survey by Gallup has found AI use at work to have doubled in the US over the past two years, with uptake highest among so-called white-collar employers, with technology professional services and finance seeing the highest uptakes. "As AI adoption accelerates, continued monitoring of its broader impacts on work and health is essential," said Osea Giuntella of the University of Pittsburgh, who asserted that "technology alone" is not what will decide how AI affects jobs. "Institutions and policies will decide whether AI enhances or erodes the conditions of work," Guintella said. – dpa/Tribune News Service
Time of India
11-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Is your college degree becoming obsolete with AI's rise? Experts say there is a smarter way forward
College degrees may no longer guarantee job security as AI transforms hiring standards. PwC's report shows that job roles most affected by AI now evolve 66% faster, pushing companies to value real-time abilities over academic qualifications. Experts urge professionals to embrace continuous learning, master AI tools, and focus on adaptability to thrive in this dynamic, tech-driven future. As AI rapidly reshapes the job market, the importance of formal degrees is fading—especially in AI-exposed roles. According to PwC's 2025 AI Jobs Barometer, employers now prioritize current skills over past education. (Representational image: iStock) Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Skills Are the New Currency in the Age of AI In sectors where AI tools are already widespread, the skills employers demand are changing 66% more rapidly than in roles with minimal AI influence according to the PwC report. (Representational image: iStock) Learn Fast, Stay Relevant: The New Career Imperative Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Degrees Still Matter—But Not in the Way You Think A college degree, long considered the golden ticket to employment, is now losing its luster—especially in jobs most exposed to artificial intelligence. According to PwC's 2025 AI Jobs Barometer, employer demand for formal degrees is on the decline, and nowhere is that trend more pronounced than in AI-driven sectors . As AI systems rapidly empower individuals to master knowledge and execute tasks with lightning speed, the need to prove expertise through traditional education is report, based on the analysis of nearly a billion job listings and thousands of company financial statements worldwide, paints a future where hiring managers care more about what you can do right now than what your diploma says you studied years fields like finance, software, and data analysis—where AI tools are already ubiquitous—the skills employers seek are evolving 66% faster than in jobs less touched by AI, such as physical therapy. This dramatic shift, up from 25% last year, is not just a trend but a signal that traditional academic qualifications may struggle to keep pace with the breakneck evolution of knowledge.'The emphasis on skills over degrees in hiring may help democratize opportunity,' the report notes, potentially leveling the playing field for those without the time or money to pursue multi-year university programs. It's not about what you learned then, but what you can do Atkinson, PwC's Global Chief AI Officer, believes the future belongs to those who take charge of their learning—especially when it comes to artificial intelligence. In a conversation with CNBC Make It, he emphasized that today's education is no longer confined to lecture halls and textbooks. Anyone with a laptop and internet connection can access AI models, understand prompt engineering, and train themselves in real time.'The ability individuals have to tap vast amounts of knowledge is amplified in this age of AI,' Atkinson said. He encourages professionals to dive into different AI platforms, follow tech updates, and most importantly, use the tools regularly. Practical, applied skills are what separate the AI-literate from the he warns, is now 'the new table stakes.' If you're not actively upskilling, you're already trailing this seismic shift, Atkinson isn't ringing the death knell for formal education just yet. He argues that universities still offer something vital: critical thinking, collaboration, and a foundation for higher-order reasoning.'Formal education is not just about skills acquisition—it's about how you think and interact with the world,' he said. Those qualities, he believes, will only grow more valuable as machines take over more mechanical to remain competitive in this new world, even degree-holders will need to commit to lifelong learning . The rise of AI demands not just knowledge, but agility—a mindset of constant is your college degree obsolete? Not quite. But if you think it's enough to futureproof your career, think again. The rise of AI is pushing workers to become perpetual learners, fluent in the language of algorithms and tools. In this emerging era, the true measure of your value isn't your credentials—it's your in this brave new world, those who learn fastest will lead the future.
Time of India
09-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Beyond the fear: What global data says about AI supporting, not replacing jobs
As AI and automation reshape the world of work, a quiet anxiety is sweeping across sectors, fuelled by fears of job loss and uncertainty about the future. With tightening pressure, employees, regardless of age or industry, are grappling with rising stress and mental fatigue. In such a moment of emotional vulnerability, while upskilling and reskilling for the workforce are essential, without a clear roadmap, they alone may not be enough to ease these fears. What's needed to sustain workforce trust isn't just speculation, but data-backed insights and credible research, evidence that shows AI isn't a threat to jobs, but a powerful tool for growth and evolution. Building confidence with data-driven insights To restore the confidence of today's demoralised workforce, many of whom fear being replaced by AI, we've gathered key global reports that present evidence-based insights. These findings show that AI isn't here to take over jobs, but to create new opportunities and reshape the future of work for the better. #Insight 1: 38% rise in AI-exposed jobs, 56% wage premium for AI-skilled workers A recent PWC 2025 Global AI Jobs Barometer , analysing nearly a billion job ads across six continents, reveals that AI is boosting worker value, productivity, and wage potential, with job numbers rising by 38% between 2019 and 2024 in the AI-exposed roles. According to the report, since the rise of GenAI in 2022, productivity in AI-exposed sectors has surged from 7% in 2018-2022 to 27% by 2024. It also revealed that AI-skilled workers earned an average wage premium of 56% in 2024, which was more than double the 25% premium from the previous year, defying widespread fears of job losses. In 2025, this number will continue to grow. #Insight 2: 1 in 4 jobs are highly exposed to AI, but not at risk of elimination A recently released joint study titled 'Generative AI and jobs: A refined global index of occupational exposure' by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) and Poland's National Research Institute (NASK) reveals that one in four jobs worldwide is highly exposed to AI. Surprisingly, the study emphasises this exposure as a transformation rather than a replacement of jobs. It highlights that complete automation in many sectors remains limited, with human involvement continuing to play a central role in maintaining efficiency. #Insight 3: $4.4 trillion productivity potential, but only with people at the centre McKinsey's recent insights on generative AI underscore that generative AI could deliver as much as $4.4 trillion in global productivity gains annually. But beyond the numbers, a quieter revolution is underway, one that shifts the focus from machine dominance to human enablement. Realising this potential, many companies are investing in reskilling, change management, and employee support systems that are better positioned to unlock AI's full value. #Insight 4: 72% of enterprises adopting AI, 40% jump in efficiency with strategic use Deloitte Global's 2025 predictions report, ' Generative AI: Paving the Way for a Transformative Future ', also presents a forward-looking analysis of how AI is not just automating tasks but enhancing human decision-making, fostering new business models, and increasing efficiency in dynamic work environments. With 72% of global enterprises already embracing AI-led transformations, the report further points to the rise of new roles focused on AI governance, ethics, and collaboration between humans and machines. Interestingly, companies that use AI strategically have seen up to a 40% jump in operational efficiency, showing that when done right, AI isn't just a tool, it's a foundation for workplace resilience. AI is a partner, not a replacement As change remains a constant force, it's important to recognise that AI as a revolution has just superseded the conventional method of working, bringing innovation and development to technology, while retaining the essential role of human judgement and creativity. With the right training and increased awareness, the fear of job loss can shift into optimism about thriving in an AI-driven world.
West Australian
09-06-2025
- Business
- West Australian
New research busts 6 AI myths: Artificial intelligence makes workers ‘more valuable, not less'
Despite widespread fears that artificial intelligence could automate jobs and cut employees' wages, AI actually makes people 'more valuable, not less', new research by professional services firm PwC has found. 'What causes people to react in this environment is the speed of the tech innovation,' PwC global chief AI officer Joe Atkinson said. 'The reality is that the tech innovation is moving really, really fast. It's moving at a pace that we've never seen in a tech innovation before. 'What the report suggests, actually, is AI is creating jobs.' In fact, both jobs and wages are growing in 'virtually every' AI-exposed occupation — or jobs that have tasks where the technology can be used — including those that are the most automatable, such as customer service workers or software coders, according to the 2025 AI Jobs Barometer report. 'We know that every time we have an industrial revolution, there are more jobs created than lost. The challenge is that the skills workers need for the new jobs can be quite different,' said Carol Stubbings, PwC UK's global chief commercial officer, in the report. 'So the challenge, we believe, is not that there won't be jobs. It's that workers need to be prepared to take them.' The report, which analysed more than 800 million job ads and thousands of company financial reports across six continents, challenged six common myths about AI's impact: Myth: AI has not yet had a significant impact on productivity. However, the report found that since 2022, productivity growth in industries 'best positioned to adopt AI' has nearly quadrupled, while falling slightly in industries 'least exposed' to AI, such as physical therapy. Notably, the industries that are the most exposed to AI, such as software publishing, showed three times higher growth in revenue per employee, according to PwC's data. Myth: AI can have a negative impact on workers' wages and bargaining power. PwC's data showed that the wages of workers with AI skills are on average 56 per cent higher compared to workers without these skills in the same occupation, up from 25 per cent last year. In addition, wages are rising twice as fast in industries that are the most exposed to AI compared to the industries least exposed. Myth: AI may lead to a decrease in job numbers. The report found that while occupations with lower exposure to AI saw strong job growth at 65 per cent between 2019 and 2024, growth remained robust — albeit slower — even in occupations more exposed to the technology (38 per cent). Myth: AI may exacerbate inequalities in opportunities and wages for workers. Contrary to fears that AI will worsen inequality, the report findings show that wages and employment are rising for jobs that are augmentable and automatable by the technology. The report noted that employer demand for formal degrees is declining faster in AI-exposed jobs, creating broader opportunities 'for millions'. Myth: AI may 'deskill' jobs that it automates. The report found that instead, AI can enrich automatable jobs by freeing up employees from tedious tasks to practice more complex skills and decision-making. For example, data entry clerks can evolve into a 'higher value' role such as data analysts, according to PwC. Myth: AI may devalue jobs that it highly automates. The data shows that not only are wages rising for jobs that are highly automatable, but the technology is also reshaping these jobs to become more 'complex and creative', and ultimately, make people more valuable. The study offers another perspective: In a world where many countries have declining working-age populations, softening job growth in AI-exposed occupations could even 'be helpful' and benefit such countries. The productivity boost by AI can actually create a 'multiplier effect' on the available workforce and satisfy the gaps that companies might not have been able to be fill otherwise, as well as growth for businesses, Mr Atkinson said. 'It's a prediction supported already by the productivity data we're seeing,' he added. 'I think it could absolutely and will be a good thing.' Ultimately, the study takes the stance that AI should be treated 'as a growth strategy, not just an efficiency strategy'. Rather than using the technology to cut costs on headcount, companies should help their employees adapt and work together to create new opportunities, claim new markets and revenue streams. 'It is critical to avoid the trap of low ambition. Instead of limiting our focus to automating yesterday's jobs, let's create the new jobs and industries of the future,' the report said. 'AI, if used with imagination, could spark a flowering of new jobs and new business models. For example, two-thirds of jobs in the US today did not exist in 1940, and many of these new jobs were enabled by advances in technology,' the report added. CNBC
