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The Independent
4 days ago
- Politics
- The Independent
FACT FOCUS: Trump claims cashless bail increases crime, but data is inconclusive
As his administration faces mounting pressure to release Justice Department files related the Jeffrey Epstein sex trafficking case, President Donald Trump is highlighting a different criminal justice issue — cashless bail. He suggested in a Truth Social post this week that eliminating cash bail as a condition of pretrial release from jail has led to rising crime in U.S. cities that have enacted these reforms. However, studies have shown no clear link. Here's a closer look at the facts. TRUMP: 'Crime in American Cities started to significantly rise when they went to CASHLESS BAIL. The WORST criminals are flooding our streets and endangering even our great law enforcement officers. It is a complete disaster, and must be ended, IMMEDIATELY!' THE FACTS: Data has not determined the impact of cashless bail on crime rates. But experts say it is incorrect to claim that there is an adverse connection. 'I don't know of any valid studies corroborating the President's claim and would love to know what the Administration offers in support,' said Kellen Funk, a professor at Columbia Law School who studies pretrial procedure and bail bonding. 'In my professional judgment I'd call the claim demonstrably false and inflammatory.' Jeff Clayton, executive director of the American Bail Coalition, the main lobbying arm of the cash bail industry, also pointed to a lack of evidence. 'Studies are inconclusive in terms of whether bail reforms have had an impact on overall crime numbers,' he said. 'This is due to pretrial crime being a small subset of overall crime. It is also difficult to categorize reforms as being 'cashless' or not, i.e., policies where preventative detention is introduced as an alternative to being held on bail.' Different jurisdictions, different laws In 2023, Illinois became the first state to completely eliminate cash bail when the state Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the law abolishing it. The move was part of an expansive criminal justice overhaul adopted in 2021 known as the SAFE-T Act. Under the change, a judge decides whether to release the defendant prior to their trial, weighing factors such as their criminal charges, if they could pose any danger to others and if they are considered a flight risk. Loyola University of Chicago's Center for Criminal Justice published a 2024 report on Illinois' new cashless bail policy, one year after it went into effect. It acknowledges that there is not yet enough data to know what impact the law has had on crime, but that crime in Illinois did not increase after its implementation. Violent and property crime declined in some counties. A number of other jurisdictions, including New Jersey, New Mexico and Washington, D.C., have nearly eliminated cash bail or limited its use. Many include exceptions for high-level crimes. Proponents of eliminating cash bail describe it as a penalty on poverty, suggesting that the wealthy can pay their way out of jail to await trial while those with fewer financial resources have to sit it out behind bars. Critics have argued that bail is a time-honored way to ensure defendants released from jail show up for court proceedings. They warn that violent criminals will be released pending trial, giving them license to commit other crimes. A lack of consensus Studies have shown mixed results regarding the impact of cashless bail on crime. Many focus on the recidivism of individual defendants rather than overall crime rates. A 2024 report published by the Brennan Center for Justice saw 'no statistically significant relationship' between bail reform and crime rates. It looked at crime rate data from 2015 through 2021 for 33 cities across the U.S., 22 of which had instituted some type of bail reform. Researchers used a statistical method to determine if crime rates had diverged in those with reforms and those without. Ames Grawert, the report's co-author and senior counsel in the Brennan Center's Justice Program, said this conclusion "holds true for trends in crime overall or specifically violent crime.' Similarly, a 2023 paper published in the American Economic Journal found no evidence that cash bail helps ensure defendants will show up in court or prevents crime among those who are released while awaiting trial. The paper evaluated the impact of a 2018 policy instituted by the Philadelphia's district attorney that instructed prosecutors not to set bail for certain offenses. A 2019 court decree in Harris County, Texas, requires most people charged with a misdemeanor to be released without bail while awaiting trial. The latest report from the monitoring team responsible for tracking the impact of this decision, released in 2024, notes that the number of people arrested for misdemeanors has declined by more than 15% since 2015. The number of those rearrested within one year has similarly declined, with rearrest rates remaining stable in recent years. Asked what data Trump was using to support his claim, the White House pointed to a 2022 report from the district attorney's office in Yolo County, California, that looked at how a temporary cashless bail system implemented across the state to prevent COVID-19 outbreaks in courts and jails impacted recidivism. It found that out of 595 individuals released between April 2020 and May 2021 under this system, 70.6% were arrested again after they were released. A little more than half were rearrested more than once. A more recent paper, published in February by the IZA Institute of Labor Economics, also explored the effects of California's decision to suspend most bail during the COVID-19 pandemic. It reports that implementation of this policy 'caused notable increases in both the likelihood and number of rearrests within 30 days.' However, a return to cash bail did not impact the number of rearrests for any type of offense. The paper acknowledges that other factors, such as societal disruption from the pandemic, could have contributed to the initial increase. Many contributing factors It is difficult to pinpoint specific explanations for why crime rises and falls. The American Bail Coalition's Clayton noted that other policies that have had a negative impact on crime, implemented concurrently with bail reforms, make it 'difficult to isolate or elevate one or more causes over the others.' Paul Heaton, a law professor at the University of Pennsylvania who studies criminal justice interventions, had a similar outlook. 'Certainly there are some policy levers that people look at — the size of the police force and certain policies around sentencing,' he said. 'But there's a lot of variation in crime that I think even criminologists don't necessarily fully understand.'
Yahoo
14-02-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Stockard on the Stump: Sexton and bail bond industry headed for collision
An attorney for the bail bonds industry is questioning the constitutionality of measure spearheaded by House Speaker Cameron Sexton. Photo: John Partipilo) The bail bond industry is questioning the constitutionality of a proposed amendment to Tennessee's Constitution that would give judges the discretion to decline bail for some 75 violent crimes. Michael McClaren, attorney for the American Bail Coalition, sent a letter to Attorney General Jonathan Skrmetti and Senate Majority Leader Jack Johnson challenging the measure's legality and saying it would have 'unintended and detrimental consequences' for the state. He stopped short of requesting a legal opinion. Sponsored by House Speaker Cameron Sexton of Crossville, the amendment would remove the right to bail for capital offenses, terrorism, second-degree murder, aggravated rape of a child, aggravated rape, grave torture and a litany of offenses for which a defendant would have to serve at least 85% of their sentence under a new 'truth in sentencing' law. Under the state Constitution, capital offenses are the only crime for which bail can be denied, and this would be a massive expansion, although Sexton and House Majority Leader William Lamberth say only a few repeat offenders would be affected. People want to make sure if you're committing violent crimes, especially if you've done two, three or four, there's an option for you not to get back out. McClaren's letter says the proposed amendment restricts the right to bail and 'will deny voters and citizens of Tennessee procedural due process' because it fails to give 'clear notice' of what would be prohibited. 'A law is considered unconstitutionally vague if it is so unclear that people of common intelligence must guess at its meaning and differ as to its application,' McClaren's letter says. More pointedly, he says most Tennesseans don't know which crimes require 85% of a sentence to be served. (In short, the proposed amendment doesn't 'explain about the 50 ways.' 'Just slip out the back Jack / Make a new plan Stan / You don't need to be coy Roy / Just get yourself free.' Sorry for the Paul Simon lyrics, but they seemed to fit.) While the bail bond industry's opposition is predictable, it also could be considered practical, as it argues this move could fill up county jails and force local governments to spend millions of dollars to hold defendants while they await trial. Sexton, the prime sponsor of House Joint Resolution 49, says the bail association is claiming the amendment creates a 'mandate' for denying bail on more than 70 offenses, which, he adds 'is absolutely false.' 'People want to make sure if you're committing violent crimes, especially if you've done two, three or four, there's an option for you not to get back out,' Sexton says. He questions whether someone has to commit murder before they're ineligible for bail. 'I think we're better than that, and I think the judges with the discretion will make the best decision,' he adds. The bill passed a subcommittee and is headed for the House Judiciary Committee in a couple of weeks. The question, though, is not necessarily whether the legislature should act as jury, judge and executioner, although that should be the overriding concern. In this case, it's whether people are going to know what they're voting on when they go to the ballot box in 2026. Lawmakers approved the constitutional amendment in 2024, and it must receive a two-thirds vote by the legislature before it can go on next year's ballot where it must receive a majority vote of those who participate in the gubernatorial election. Sexton must have a great deal of confidence in voters, saying the question will reference voters to the section of the code where the crimes are listed, even though the state law won't be on the ballot with the constitutional question. His disdain for the bail industry is much clearer than the proposed amendment. 'It's unconstitutional because people can't see what the crimes are? Is that what the bail association is saying? I don't understand the unconstitutional aspect of that,' Sexton says. Yet he hit it right on the head. If people don't know what they're voting on, that could be a problem. It also causes long lines at precincts when people start scratching their heads in the voting booth. But that's another matter. Some lawmakers are hesitant to support any constitutional amendments. But this legislature is starting to look like California's State Assembly, which is in the habit of legislating through ballots. Gov. Bill Lee signed his private-school voucher bill into law Wednesday surrounded by – you guessed it – private school students. Fawning lawmakers, lobbyists and parents attended the Capitol confab, as well, amid a cacophony of cheers for 'school choice.' If someone gave me $7,300-plus every year for doing nothing extra, I might cheer too. When your vote is 54-44 (one of which was miscast), putting you barely above the constitutional requirement in the House to adopt a bill, that is hardly a mandate. The fix was in, considering the state's own report said two-thirds of the 20,000 students who would take the money next school year are going to private schools already. Lee is moving at warp speed to set up the voucher system, even though questions continue to be raised about the 'hold harmless' provision for public school districts that lose students and whether the new 'entitlement program' will send the state over a 'fiscal cliff.' Despite complaints from Republican and Democratic lawmakers about the implications of starting a new education program, Lt. Gov. Randy McNally reminded us Thursday the legislature will decide every year whether to fund increases in the program. It's supposed to grow 3% annually with K-12 public schools funding. But the legislature has ultimate oversight. Says McNally, 'The legislature has always been conservative, especially since Gov. Ramsey came on board, and we won't spend money we don't have, and we won't play games with money.' (Think about that as you're traversing the Lieutenant Governor Speaker of the Senate Ron Ramsey Tunnel and pondering, 'Ron who?') OK, if we can't play games, can we just give money away? Republican Rep. Gino 'Bathroom Bill' Bulso brought us the latest version of potty police-dom this week, pushing a bill through the Education Administration Subcommittee that would force public and private schools to set up separate restroom and changing facilities for transgender kids. The state law is needed, according to Bulso, because he received a complaint from a parent. Despite being told he was 'mean' and drawing questions from fellow Republicans who said they had problems with making private schools spend money, Bulso pushed them to a vote in a room packed with jeering LGBTQ+ supporters. While Republicans on the committee initially appeared ready to deep-six the bill, giving Bulso the option to postpone and work toward a better solution, they voted otherwise. The bill passed, and we'll see a replay of this soon in a House committee room near you. Eleven House Democrats walked out of Lee's State of the State address this week in a show of protest against his policies. That left 13 or so House Democrats in the chamber and six Senate Democrats to listen to the profundity. Hallway talk is that the outnumbered Democrats aren't getting along too well, which could make it even harder than normal to accomplish anything. Yet House Democratic Caucus Chairman John Ray Clemmons says there was no dissension in the ranks before the walkout. 'We are unanimous in our opposition to this governor's misplaced priorities and his policies. His comments with regard to immigration, his political pandering, his bragging about voucher bills, we all unanimously oppose those policies,' Clemmons says. House rules don't prohibit members from leaving the chamber during the governor's address, Clemmons adds, giving them a chance to show 'solidarity' in opposition. That may be true. But if folks such as the poor press corps have to sit through the posturing, then everybody else should too. The motto for the governor's next budget is 'Innovate 2025,' not to be confused with Project 2025, the blueprint for the new world order. All through the document, readers kept looking for innovation, such as borrowing $1 billion for collegiate capital projects, usually a no-no for the state, spending $450 million to create a new private-school 'entitlement,' creating a $5.5 million immigration enforcement bureau that can operate confidentially and the list could go on. He taught us that space and time — once thought to be fixed — are actually interconnected and dynamic, relative to one another. – Gov. Bill Lee on physicist Albert Einstein Finally, though, it dawned on us simpletons that the answer was in Lee's words at the State of the State when he spoke about taking a course on Albert Einstein's work. 'He taught us that space and time — once thought to be fixed — are actually interconnected and dynamic, relative to one another,' Lee said. All we have to do is 'challenge conventional thinking' and prove it wrong, he said. If only he could persuade the Tennessee Supreme Court to rewrite the theory of relativity. All it takes is a couple more appointments. 'The problem is all inside your head,' she said to me / 'The answer is easy if you take it logically.' * *'Fifty Ways to Leave Your Lover,' Paul Simon SUBSCRIBE: GET THE MORNING HEADLINES DELIVERED TO YOUR INBOX
