Latest news with #AmnishAggarwal
Economic Times
2 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Where to park money and where to create wealth now? Jyotivardhan Jaipuria answers
Live Events You Might Also Like: Get into mid and smallcaps with a slightly longer-term horizon compared to largecaps: Harsha Upadhyaya You Might Also Like: Is the puck moving from discretionary to consumer staples? Amnish Aggarwal answers (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel , Founder & MD,, says despite uncertainty surrounding US tariffs and the stalled India-US trade deal, a focus on domestic opportunities is advised. Anticipated improvements in domestic demand, fueled by liquidity, interest rate cuts, and tax breaks, make the banking sector attractive due to its valuations. Cement stocks are also promising, with consolidation expected to boost pricing power and earnings over the next 18 you said, Trump's tariffs are the uncertain thing for the market just now and what is probably more critical is like one is the tariffs itself and the other is our tariff versus relatively other countries we compete with. So, at some point, if all the tariffs are going to be 20%, it is not great for US demand, it is not great for inflation in the US, and probably it leads to a slowdown in the on a very competitive basis, we do not lose out with some other country. At the moment, the way it is seeming, we probably will be better off versus a lot of other competitors. We are probably not going to lose out much on the tariff, but it is still a wait and watch because the India-US deal has been on the cards for a long time but still not finalised. In this environment, we are looking at two-three buckets. One is focusing on domestic things which are easier to play, which are less impacted by what happens to the US tariffs and within domestic, we have to remember that we have had easy liquidity, interest rate cuts, and a tax break for the to some extent, we probably will see improvement in domestic demand. We like the banking space more because of the valuations because that is one thing we have to keep in mind. In the last three-four years, most of the domestic names have seen a sharp rise in valuation. So, banks are one area we like. The other is cement, where a lot of cement stocks have not performed for the last two, two-and-a-half has been a consolidation in the sector and we think that will help pricing powers going forward and so the next 18 months will probably be good for cement companies in terms of their earnings as well as the share price, and that is the other domestic segment we are focusing on.: One of the reasons why FMCG has done well is that the stocks have been underperforming massively. Whenever markets start going down on a relative basis, FMCG starts to do well. The other thing is that as we look at the situation just now, monsoons are looking fairly good, cropping has been good, and it looks like the crop will exceed last year's number by a fair margin. We will have a record agricultural crop and when that happens, it will help rural demand. So, FMCG is going to be one of the gainers from rural demand and they will probably benefit from the same time, we have been quite negative on the consumer staple companies and the main reason for that has been valuation. We find it very expensive at these valuations even though these are great companies, and have a lot of the cash flow. The ROEs and ROCs are very high but just given where they trade on valuation, we have been avoiding it. From a structural perspective, as the consumer gets richer and per capita income goes up every year, then it probably doubles over the next six, seven, eight at that time, the share of wallet of consumer staples will go down and consumer discretionary will go up. For us, one way to play the consumer story in India has not been the staples but some of the discretionary names. That is why we have been quite cautious on the consumer staple side.I find the markets having a time correction good. We had quite a steep correction and the markets have seen a bounce-back since then. The macro in India is very good if you look at the current account deficit, fiscal deficit, the RBI monetary policy, inflation, and interest rates falling. The macro looks very good. We are the fastest growing economy on a GDP basis. At the same time, earnings are just the valuations are not cheap and earnings are not coming. We will probably end this quarter also with a single digit earnings growth which in some sense if you think about it, earnings are growing at less than nominal GDP growth. So, for the market to see a sustained rise, you probably see earnings need to start coming back. We need to start seeing double digit earning growth come back. But in the meanwhile, it is very good for us that we are going through a time correction because it helps absorb some of the recent gains. We have seen in the market and probably time correction will help valuations become a little cheaper and which probably makes it easier for the next bull run to general, the domestic story is relatively insulated from what happens to the tariff scenario and anything international has got a risk. Just to give you an example, we like pharmaceuticals. We think the pharma industry is good and over the next five years, we will have visible growth in the same time, the fact there is a threat of tariffs on pharma means that in the short term, you do not really know what this quantum of the tariffs will be and whether it will impact the pharma stocks and the pharma companies in a significant way or a very small way. So, you would rather have the tariff come and then you know what the tariff is, it is easier to evaluate how bad the scenario is going to be in terms of earnings before you really start to buy the same time, there are some stocks which we find very cheap and compelling. So, we have been buying IT but in general, I would say stick more to the domestic names in your portfolio and avoid things that can get impacted significantly by the US tariffs.
Economic Times
7 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Bullish on 4 sectors from medium perspective; Phoenix Mills, JSW Infra 2 top picks: Dharmesh Shah
Live Events You Might Also Like: Global headwinds: Should one focus on largecaps or look at midcaps and smallcaps? Nilesh Shetty answers You Might Also Like: Is the puck moving from discretionary to consumer staples? Amnish Aggarwal answers (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel , AVP, Technical Analyst,, says Indian markets are consolidating, with strong support around 25,200-25,100 on the Nifty. Metals, real estate, PSU banks are the ones one should definitely look out from the medium perspective. While awaiting the US-India trade deal outcome and Q1 numbers, stock-specific actions dominate. Real estate remains positive, with Phoenix Mills as a top pick due to its retail expansion plans. JSW Infra is favored in logistics, with a target of Rs 336 and a stop loss of Rs market seems to be looking for a bit of a breather. There is anxiety ahead of the US-India trade deal. We believe going forward the market should trade positively because the Nifty seems to be consolidating above the breakout levels which also coincides with the 20-day EMA which is placed at around 25,200. So, 25,200, 25,100 remains to be the very strong support. I agree that the markets are lacklustre; there is more of a stock specific market is waiting for this event to pan out and more importantly, is looking out for the Q1 numbers. So, stock-specific actions are likely to continue. If you look at the broader picture, we expect the Nifty to head towards 25,800 in the coming month with strong support at 25,200 because if you look at the market breadth, that is a good indicator to understand the sentiment of the you look at the market breadth, the percentage of stocks trading above 200-day moving average of CNX 500 is currently at 60% compared to 52% last month. It looks like maybe in the near term, we see more of a consolidation, but it is more of a buy-on-dip market with strong support at 25,200 and target of 25,800 to 26,000 in the coming sectors to talk about include banking. It is clearly outperforming even in this current corrective phase of the market. Particularly, PSU banks appear to be on the verge of a breakout. We believe PSU banks are the one sector which we like. We can see an uptick coming in the coming months. Apart from that, real estate as a sector, in the last two months, post RBI rate cut, has seen a sharp recovery. But what is happening now is nothing but a retracement of that rally. So, we believe in the real estate sector, banking. Metals. It looks like a retracement is happening. Metals should be bought on any dip. So, metals, real estate, PSU banks are the ones one should definitely look out from the medium We remain positive in real estate. Phoenix Mills remains our top pick. On Tuesday, we saw a strong move from Phoenix Mills and the company seems to be expanding its portfolio into the retail segment. The target of 18 million square feet is a good positive going for Phoenix coming to technical, again we believe that the stock seems to be forming the base at about 100 week EMA. Since November 2020, the stock had never breached 100 week EMA on the closing basis and currently the monthly charts for the last nine months show that the stock has been consolidating in this range of 1640 to 1300. So, we expect a breakout happening for Phoenix Mills, on the higher side in the coming days and we expect the stock to head towards 1840 keeping a stop loss of around 1488. So, Phoenix Mills is one which remains to be our top pick inside the real estate space where the risk-reward looks more favourable at the current market from that, coming to logistics, we like JSW Infra. The way things are panning out for most of this logistics, the sector has done nothing for a long time. We expect a gradual outperformance going forward for JSW Infra. Again, a strong base formation, 100-week EMA and joining the lows of strong buying demand emerging at the lower end of the rising channel, it looks like JSW Infra should see a relative outperformance in the days to come and we expect the stock to head towards Rs 336, keeping a stop loss of Rs 296.
Economic Times
07-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Is the puck moving from discretionary to consumer staples? Amnish Aggarwal answers
Live Events You Might Also Like: What to expect from consumer, power companies in coming quarters? Amnish Aggarwal answers You Might Also Like: Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries to spin off FMCG brands into new arm ahead of mega IPO plans (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel , Head-Research,, says the FMCG index is currently experiencing gains, prompting questions about the sustainability of this upward trend. While growth rates are gradually improving, much of this optimism is already factored into future estimates. Amnish Aggarwal suggests a stock-specific approach, highlighting Britannia, ITC as potentially positive, while viewing Lever as a trading opportunity with a target upside.A mixed update has come from many of these companies and it is not a very big surprise. For example, in the case of Dabur, although this year juices or glucoses some of the segments have not done well, the base is now highly favourable after 3-4 very bad quarters. That is why some growth is now visible. But if you look at the very broader side of things, we believe that the benefits of decline in inflation, tax cuts and the fact that the base is not great, will start reflecting in improved demand across the increase in the volume growth for most of the companies will not be very sharp. It might happen at a very moderate pace, but definitely things are looking better than what they were in 4Q and the outlook remains reasonably positive given that the monsoons are likely to be normal, the inflation is under control, and tax rates as also the interest rates have been cut. That gives us a reasonably positive outlook for the growth incremental to what seen in the past few is very difficult to pinpoint any particular segment per se because this quarter was not great for companies which are more into the summer-centric products. Now whether these are beverages or are some of the other products like Navratna or talc, etc, which are Emami products. So, it is very difficult to say that any particular trend will emerge. It will depend upon the seasonality. On the very broad side, the kind of pressure we were witnessing on the consumer wallet, on volumes and demand, seems to be slowly abating and the volume growth is giving us an indication that there could be a gradual uptick in them going will be wrong to conclude. For example, Trent was growing at 30% 40% for a few quarters and this quarter it has grown by 25%. Now, for most of these retail companies, there is a mix of two components over there. One is the increase in your area or the number of stores and second is the SSG. For example, in the case of DMart also, on a per store basis on an average, the sales are just under 2%. So, that is not a very healthy in the case of Trent, there is also the increase in area there and definitely the growth rates in all these companies on a year-on-year basis, that does not indicate a very sharp uptick. Look at Jubilant FoodWorks, which is a solitary case in the entire QSR pack where like to like sales are up in double digit for the second consecutive quarter. But that might not be the case for the rest of the there is an uptick in the discretionary demand but the uptick is very muted, very gradual, and in some of the companies which were growing very fast last year maybe due to base or maybe because the demand scenario is not that great as of now, we are witnessing some moderation in growth rates are picking up at a very tepid pace. In terms of the stock price reactions, the growth rates are expected to be better and that is already factored into the estimates of say FY26 to quite a good extent. Will there be any big upgrades to the estimates? That we will learn only over the course of maybe this quarter or next quarter when better visibility to the valuation, while many of the discretionary stocks have been doing well, they have seen an up move in the past, most of the FMCG stocks in the past six months, were down in the dumps. For example, Britannia was quoting at sub-Rs 5,000. Even Lever touched Rs 2150, 2200. Many of these stocks had gone to very low levels, although the PE multiples have not corrected to that sense is that from those low levels, we have seen some sort of improvement in the growth rates and the stock prices because they have not gone anywhere, not for the last few months, but in the last year, year-and-a-half. That is the sort of optimism which is getting reflected in many of these having said that, one should be very stock specific because ultimately it will depend upon that particular company's numbers, how the valuations are, and how the things are panning out. We have been very positive on Britannia. Lever has been, more like a trading bet with an upside up to say 2600, 2650 and on the staple side, ITC is another stock where we have been very positive. It is having its own set of problems as of now, but given that it is a beaten down stock, this is the one which seems to be very convincing at the present moment and it should give decent returns over the next 6 to 12 months.
Time of India
07-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Is the puck moving from discretionary to consumer staples? Amnish Aggarwal answers
Amnish Aggarwal , Head-Research, Prabhudas Lilladher , says the FMCG index is currently experiencing gains, prompting questions about the sustainability of this upward trend. While growth rates are gradually improving, much of this optimism is already factored into future estimates. Amnish Aggarwal suggests a stock-specific approach, highlighting Britannia, ITC as potentially positive, while viewing Lever as a trading opportunity with a target upside. In a surprising move, there seems to have been a revival in urban demand. What are you making of the comments and updates from the companies because these stocks are doing very well in today's trade? Amnish Aggarwal: A mixed update has come from many of these companies and it is not a very big surprise. For example, in the case of Dabur, although this year juices or glucoses some of the segments have not done well, the base is now highly favourable after 3-4 very bad quarters. That is why some growth is now visible. But if you look at the very broader side of things, we believe that the benefits of decline in inflation, tax cuts and the fact that the base is not great, will start reflecting in improved demand across the board. Play Video Pause Skip Backward Skip Forward Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration 0:00 Loaded : 0% 0:00 Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 1x Playback Rate Chapters Chapters Descriptions descriptions off , selected Captions captions settings , opens captions settings dialog captions off , selected Audio Track default , selected Picture-in-Picture Fullscreen This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Text Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Caption Area Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Drop shadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Top Public Speaking Course for Children Planet Spark Book Now Undo An increase in the volume growth for most of the companies will not be very sharp. It might happen at a very moderate pace, but definitely things are looking better than what they were in 4Q and the outlook remains reasonably positive given that the monsoons are likely to be normal, the inflation is under control, and tax rates as also the interest rates have been cut. That gives us a reasonably positive outlook for the growth incremental to what seen in the past few quarters. Which segment do you believe can outperform going ahead as well because a bit of surprise is coming in from the companies that have already come out with the numbers? Going ahead, is there any particular segment that you want to flag off where the pricing pressure and the inventory stocking are normalising right now? Amnish Aggarwal: It is very difficult to pinpoint any particular segment per se because this quarter was not great for companies which are more into the summer-centric products. Now whether these are beverages or are some of the other products like Navratna or talc, etc, which are Emami products. So, it is very difficult to say that any particular trend will emerge. It will depend upon the seasonality. On the very broad side, the kind of pressure we were witnessing on the consumer wallet, on volumes and demand, seems to be slowly abating and the volume growth is giving us an indication that there could be a gradual uptick in them going forward. If you compare the updates we have received from big-box retail , like DMart and Trent with the ones that we have received from pure play FMCG names, does this indicate that the puck may now be shifting from discretionary to consumer staples ? Is that a trend that we could conclude based on the limited numbers we have seen so far? Amnish Aggarwal: That will be wrong to conclude. For example, Trent was growing at 30% 40% for a few quarters and this quarter it has grown by 25%. Now, for most of these retail companies, there is a mix of two components over there. One is the increase in your area or the number of stores and second is the SSG. For example, in the case of DMart also, on a per store basis on an average, the sales are just under 2%. So, that is not a very healthy number. Live Events You Might Also Like: What to expect from consumer, power companies in coming quarters? Amnish Aggarwal answers Now in the case of Trent, there is also the increase in area there and definitely the growth rates in all these companies on a year-on-year basis, that does not indicate a very sharp uptick. Look at Jubilant FoodWorks, which is a solitary case in the entire QSR pack where like to like sales are up in double digit for the second consecutive quarter. But that might not be the case for the rest of the pack. Yes, there is an uptick in the discretionary demand but the uptick is very muted, very gradual, and in some of the companies which were growing very fast last year maybe due to base or maybe because the demand scenario is not that great as of now, we are witnessing some moderation in demand. The FMCG index is the top gainer today. You have been flagging off that it is a mixed bag this time around though Q1 is better than Q4. Do you believe that the stock moves are justified today and this up move can continue for some more time? The reason I ask this is because the FMCG pack has been a key underperformer and has been consolidating for a while. What is your take on the valuations and is this a good time to add on to some names? Amnish Aggarwal: The growth rates are picking up at a very tepid pace. In terms of the stock price reactions, the growth rates are expected to be better and that is already factored into the estimates of say FY26 to quite a good extent. Will there be any big upgrades to the estimates? That we will learn only over the course of maybe this quarter or next quarter when better visibility comes. Coming to the valuation, while many of the discretionary stocks have been doing well, they have seen an up move in the past, most of the FMCG stocks in the past six months, were down in the dumps. For example, Britannia was quoting at sub-Rs 5,000. Even Lever touched Rs 2150, 2200. Many of these stocks had gone to very low levels, although the PE multiples have not corrected to that extent. You Might Also Like: Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries to spin off FMCG brands into new arm ahead of mega IPO plans My sense is that from those low levels, we have seen some sort of improvement in the growth rates and the stock prices because they have not gone anywhere, not for the last few months, but in the last year, year-and-a-half. That is the sort of optimism which is getting reflected in many of these stocks. But having said that, one should be very stock specific because ultimately it will depend upon that particular company's numbers, how the valuations are, and how the things are panning out. We have been very positive on Britannia. Lever has been, more like a trading bet with an upside up to say 2600, 2650 and on the staple side, ITC is another stock where we have been very positive. It is having its own set of problems as of now, but given that it is a beaten down stock, this is the one which seems to be very convincing at the present moment and it should give decent returns over the next 6 to 12 months.
Economic Times
29-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
What's there in store for metal stocks? Amnish Aggarwal explains
Live Events You Might Also Like: Amnish Aggarwal on where to find value in capital market theme (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel , Head-Research,, discusses the metal sector rally, noting raw material gains drove profits. Volume growth is crucial for further gains. Safeguard duties offer price support. MNCs are diluting stakes in Indian ventures due to valuation differences. Commitment levels and technology dependence are key factors. Stake reductions below 51% may signal reduced interest. The impact varies by company and metal stocks have already seen a rally and if you look at the numbers, the volumes in all the metal stocks have not been that encouraging for most of the companies. The margins have been there mainly because raw material prices have been benign. So, it is not the product pricing, but it is the raw material gains which have given them incremental profits and that is very well reflected in the stock prices because the stock prices have moved up by anywhere between 20% to 30% in the past two-three incrementally, the volume growth has to pick up. Safeguard duty is responsible for giving some hopes that the prices will be sustained and the profitability will remain healthy. If the profitability remains healthy, we will not see any big cut happening in the stock prices of all the metal companies. But incrementally, from here on, the returns should be more moderate than what we have seen particularly in the last month or have to look at this on a case-to-case basis because many of these companies or MNCs today are holding stocks not because they had come in very willingly or something, but because the government regulations at that point of time permitted them to hold. Today, in many of these large MNCs, the kind of valuations which are there in India whether you look at say some of these durable companies like LG Electronics or even Hindustan Unilever or others, the market cap seems to be disproportionately higher in terms of valuations because the Indian companies trade at a significant premium to where their MNC parents are trading today at. That is prompting some of these MNC parents to dilute some holding over there and reallocate their resources elsewhere globally where they see more growth or do some buybacks and things like as far as growth is concerned, it depends upon how much commitment is there. For example, if there is some MNC parent which reduces a stake to say 15%, 20%, then they are gradually losing interest in that particular company and it also depends on the business of the company that how much that business is technologically or otherwise dependent upon the MNC parent. In many of the sectors where the companies need to get a continuous flow of technology from the parent, reduction of the stake below say a level of 51% in certain cases, I think that I would see that as some of the companies which you showed in the chart, particularly some of these MNCs which are in the capital goods sectors like your ABB Siemens and many of these names, there the stakes are anywhere between say 51% to 75%, a couple of them I think maybe GE Vernova has also cut down stake below 51, although the company is growing technically speaking, any company reducing the stake below 51% is not a very welcome signal because then you are not the majority holder of that company and in the longer term where your strategies are going to be, slightly difficult to say and that is how I would read and rest it all depends upon how much and what type of company it is, what type of technology transfer happens and how critical are the operations of the domestic entity for its parent.
