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Economic Times
4 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
$100+ Crude? Rupee at 90? Gold at ₹1 lakh? Kotak's Anindya Banerjee explains what's coming
Kotak's Anindya Banerjee sees oil at $100, gold at ₹1 lakh, and rupee nearing 90/USD as Middle East conflict escalates, triggering global market volatility. Synopsis Rising Middle East tensions and potential disruption at the Strait of Hormuz are creating risk premiums in oil and gold. Kotak Securities' Anindya Banerjee sees crude possibly hitting $100, the rupee sliding to 90/USD, and volatility across commodities and Indian markets. As crude oil prices surge and gold hovers near ₹1 lakh, investors are bracing for a volatile Q3 driven by intensifying Middle East tensions. ADVERTISEMENT In an exclusive conversation with ETMarkets, Anindya Banerjee, Senior VP and Head of Research – Currency, Commodity & Interest Rate at Kotak Securities, decodes the ripple effects of the Iran-Israel conflict, the potential disruption at the Strait of Hormuz, and how these shocks could push crude above $100, weaken the Indian rupee to 90 vs US dollar, and reshape the global commodities landscape. From de-dollarization trends to retail gold strategy, Banerjee lays out a detailed roadmap for what's ahead. In the short term, oil prices are likely to stay supported due to rising geopolitical risk. These tensions create what's called a "risk premium," which can push prices higher. However, over the medium to long term, if the conflict de-escalates, we may see prices soften as the risk premium fades. The real wildcard here is the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of the world's oil supply transits. If that becomes a chokepoint, prices could spike significantly. For context, during the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, oil jumped from $60 to nearly $140. Iran accounts for only 1.5–2% of global supply, which is why prices are still under $80. But if the Hormuz route is disrupted, the impact could be much larger.: For oil-importing countries like India, it would mean a direct rise in the oil import bill. The impact will depend on whether India can still negotiate discounts, as it did with Russian oil. If crude crosses $100, we can expect pressure on Indian assets, bonds, the rupee, and even equities. Geopolitical risks have pushed gold higher, but historically, such events only offer short-lived support. Sustainable upmoves in gold are driven more by financial factors—central bank buying, dollar weakness, inflation hedging, etc. ADVERTISEMENT Currently, gold is in a consolidation phase after a 30–35% rally since November 2023. On the international market, the short-term range is $3,280–$3,440. On MCX, the range could be ₹97,000–₹1,01,000. A weaker rupee is supporting MCX prices even as global gold consolidates. Yes, absolutely. This is a structural trend. Central banks are de-dollarizing and shifting FX reserves into gold. A recent World Gold Council survey confirms this. Trade wars and global uncertainties are accelerating this trend. Gold is now the second-largest reserve asset for central banks globally, after the US dollar. ADVERTISEMENT Two key factors: rising oil prices and FPI outflows. Both have increased demand for dollars. While the RBI will intervene to reduce volatility, ₹87/USD is a critical support. If oil crosses $80 and tensions escalate, the rupee could head toward ₹89–90/ oil will lead, and this will impact the entire value chain, chemicals, petrochemicals, and fertilizers. This could also raise input costs for the agri sector. ADVERTISEMENT On metals, copper looks promising due to supply deficit. Silver is even more interesting; it's a dual play on gold and copper, combining industrial and monetary attributes. If I had to pick one commodity for the next few months, it would be silver. Three major events: ADVERTISEMENT US Fed Meeting – Any rate decision will impact commodities. July 4th Deadline – The end of the US-China trade ceasefire. If tariffs return, volatility will rise. Strait of Hormuz Situation – Escalation here could spike oil and impact currencies and equities. Gold's medium-to-long-term outlook is positive. Current corrections are good accumulation opportunities. Any level below ₹98,000 is a buying those with a higher risk appetite, silver may offer better returns in the short term. Investment avenues: Physical Gold MCX/NSE Derivatives Gold ETFs The choice depends on risk profile and investment goals. Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts/brokerages do not represent the views of Economic Times. 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Time of India
4 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
$100+ Crude? Rupee at 90? Gold at ₹1 lakh? Kotak's Anindya Banerjee explains what's coming
As crude oil prices surge and gold hovers near ₹1 lakh, investors are bracing for a volatile Q3 driven by intensifying Middle East tensions . In an exclusive conversation with ETMarkets, Anindya Banerjee, Senior VP and Head of Research – Currency, Commodity & Interest Rate at Kotak Securities , decodes the ripple effects of the Iran-Israel conflict , the potential disruption at the Strait of Hormuz, and how these shocks could push crude above $100, weaken the Indian rupee to 90 vs US dollar, and reshape the global commodities landscape. From de-dollarization trends to retail gold strategy, Banerjee lays out a detailed roadmap for what's ahead. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like The Simple Morning Habit for a Flatter Belly After 50! Lulutox Undo Excerpts: Crude Oil Outlook Amid Escalating Tensions Q. Brent crude has surged nearly 13% in the last 10 days due to the Iran-Israel conflict. On top of that, the US has reportedly attacked Iranian nuclear bases like Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. What are your near-term and one-month projections for crude prices? Also, Goldman Sachs has projected $110 levels—is that realistic? Anindya Banerjee: In the short term, oil prices are likely to stay supported due to rising geopolitical risk. These tensions create what's called a "risk premium," which can push prices higher. However, over the medium to long term, if the conflict de-escalates, we may see prices soften as the risk premium fades. The real wildcard here is the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of the world's oil supply transits. If that becomes a chokepoint, prices could spike significantly. For context, during the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, oil jumped from $60 to nearly $140. Iran accounts for only 1.5–2% of global supply, which is why prices are still under $80. But if the Hormuz route is disrupted, the impact could be much larger. Impact of $100 Crude on India Q. What would it mean if oil crosses $100? How significant is that mark? Anindya : For oil-importing countries like India, it would mean a direct rise in the oil import bill. The impact will depend on whether India can still negotiate discounts, as it did with Russian oil. If crude crosses $100, we can expect pressure on Indian assets, bonds, the rupee, and even equities. Live Events Gold's Rally and Outlook Q. Till a few days back, gold was hovering around ₹99,000 per 10 grams. It saw a major rally this June. How much more upside is left due to geopolitical tensions? And what are your short-term levels? Anindya: Geopolitical risks have pushed gold higher, but historically, such events only offer short-lived support. Sustainable upmoves in gold are driven more by financial factors—central bank buying, dollar weakness, inflation hedging, etc. Currently, gold is in a consolidation phase after a 30–35% rally since November 2023. On the international market, the short-term range is $3,280–$3,440. On MCX, the range could be ₹97,000–₹1,01,000. A weaker rupee is supporting MCX prices even as global gold consolidates. Central Banks and De-Dollarization Q. Central banks have been net buyers of gold. Do you expect this trend to continue in H2 2025? Anindya: Yes, absolutely. This is a structural trend. Central banks are de-dollarizing and shifting FX reserves into gold. A recent World Gold Council survey confirms this. Trade wars and global uncertainties are accelerating this trend. Gold is now the second-largest reserve asset for central banks globally, after the US dollar. Rupee & Bonds Under Pressure Q. The rupee and government bonds have been under pressure lately. What's driving this weakness? Anindya: Two key factors: rising oil prices and FPI outflows. Both have increased demand for dollars. While the RBI will intervene to reduce volatility, ₹87/USD is a critical support. If oil crosses $80 and tensions escalate, the rupee could head toward ₹89–90/USD. Top Commodity Bets if Conflict Escalates Q. Which commodities do you expect to outperform in Q3 if tensions worsen? Anindya: Crude oil will lead, and this will impact the entire value chain, chemicals, petrochemicals, and fertilizers. This could also raise input costs for the agri sector. On metals, copper looks promising due to supply deficit. Silver is even more interesting; it's a dual play on gold and copper, combining industrial and monetary attributes. If I had to pick one commodity for the next few months, it would be silver. Global Events to Watch Q. What are the key events investors should track amid global turmoil? Anindya: Three major events: US Fed Meeting – Any rate decision will impact commodities. July 4th Deadline – The end of the US-China trade ceasefire. If tariffs return, volatility will rise. Strait of Hormuz Situation – Escalation here could spike oil and impact currencies and equities. Retail Strategy for Gold Investment Q. Should retail investors buy gold now or wait? And what's the best way to invest—physical, digital, or ETFs? Anindya: Gold's medium-to-long-term outlook is positive. Current corrections are good accumulation opportunities. Any level below ₹98,000 is a buying zone. For those with a higher risk appetite, silver may offer better returns in the short term. Investment avenues: Physical Gold MCX/NSE Derivatives Gold ETFs The choice depends on risk profile and investment goals.
Time of India
18-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Rupee hits two-month low amid rising crude oil prices
The rupee had closed at 86.06/$1 on Monday, LSEG data showed. Likely intervention by RBI, possibly above the 86.25/$1 levels, helped contain excess losses in the currency, traders said. (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel Mumbai: The rupee on Tuesday mirrored the broader weakness in the Asian foreign-exchange market to slide to its two-month intra-day low of 86.28 per dollar, before marginally erasing losses to 86.24, as the escalating West Asian conflict caused crude oil prices to Nymex front-month contract climbed 1.8% early evening trade to $73, while Brent Crude, the benchmark used in Europe, advanced by an equivalent amount on concerns a protracted Israel-Iran conflict would destabilise supplies and pressure oil prices through the main holiday months in both North America and Europe's richer rupee had closed at 86.06/$1 on Monday, LSEG data showed. Likely intervention by RBI, possibly above the 86.25/$1 levels, helped contain excess losses in the currency, traders said."Geopolitical uncertainties and foreign investors selling Indian stocks and bonds have added pressure on the rupee. We won't see any appreciation until the oil prices cool," said Anindya Banerjee, head of research, FX and interest rates, Kotak Securities.
The Print
11-06-2025
- Business
- The Print
Rupee settles 9 paise higher at 85.57 against US dollar
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) purchased equities worth Rs 2,301.87 crore on a net basis on Tuesday, according to exchange data. However, a mixed sentiment in the domestic equity markets, a rise in global crude oil prices, and a stronger US dollar against major currencies capped further gains in the local unit, according to forex traders. Mumbai, Jun 10 (PTI) The Indian rupee rose 9 paise to close at 85.57 against the US dollar on the back of strong foreign capital inflows. At the interbank foreign exchange, rupee opened at 85.62 and registered an intra-day peak of 85.51 and a low of 85.68 before settling at 85.57 against the greenback, up 9 paise from its previous close. The local unit had settled at 85.66 against the US dollar on Monday. 'The USD-INR spot pair has been consolidating within a tight range of 85.00 to 86.00, with market participants awaiting a decisive trigger. Comfortable liquidity conditions in the money market, following the cash reserve ratio (CRR) reduction, have led to a softening in forward premiums as interest rate differentials between India and the US continue to narrow. This has made forward hedging less attractive for exporters,' Anindya Banerjee, Head Currency & Commodity, Kotak Securities, said. 'We expect the RBI to stay active in the forex market to curb excessive volatility. On the domestic front, India's relatively stable macroeconomic fundamentals continue to provide a firm underpinning to the rupee,' he said. In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex declined 53.49 points to settle at 82,391.72, while the Nifty edged up to close at 25,104.25. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading higher by 0.15 per cent at 99.09. 'The next significant directional cue for the pair is likely to emerge from risk sentiment and the broader trend in the US Dollar Index (DXY), which is currently attempting to establish a short-term base. A sustained move above the 100.00 mark in the DXY could propel USD-INR beyond the 86.00 resistance, with a potential extension towards 86.50,' Banerjee said. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose 0.18 per cent to USD 67.16 per barrel in futures trade. According to Anuj Choudhary – Research Analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan, 'Optimism over talks between US and China led to rise in risk appetite in global markets. However, a positive US dollar and rising crude oil prices capped sharp gains. 'Investors may watch out for CPI data from the US this week. USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 85.35 to Rs 86,' he added. PTI TRB HVA This report is auto-generated from PTI news service. ThePrint holds no responsibility for its content.
Time of India
10-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Forex markets: Rupee rises 9 paise to close at 85.57 against dollar, FII inflows lend support amid global volatility
The Indian rupee appreciated by 9 paise to settle at 85.57 against the US dollar on Monday, buoyed by strong foreign institutional investor (FII) inflows. Further gains were capped by rising global crude oil prices, a stronger US dollar, and mixed cues from domestic equities, forex traders said. At the interbank foreign exchange, the local currency opened at 85.62, hit an intra-day high of 85.51 and a low of 85.68, before closing at 85.57, stronger than its previous close of 85.66, PTI reported. FIIs drive rupee strength, but crude and DXY limit upside Foreign institutional investors were net buyers, pumping Rs 2,301.87 crore into domestic equities on Tuesday, exchange data showed. "The USD-INR spot pair remains range-bound between 85.00 and 86.00, awaiting a decisive trigger," said Anindya Banerjee, Head of Currency & Commodity at Kotak Securities. He noted that comfortable liquidity conditions, aided by the recent cash reserve ratio (CRR) cut, have softened forward premiums due to narrowing interest rate differentials between India and the US, making hedging less attractive for exporters. Banerjee added, "We expect the RBI to remain active in the forex market to curb excess volatility. India's stable macro fundamentals continue to provide support to the rupee." Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like This Device Made My Power Bill Drop Overnight elecTrick - Save upto 80% on Power Bill Pre-Order Undo Equities mixed, dollar index strengthens, crude climbs The BSE Sensex closed 53.49 points lower at 82,391.72, while the Nifty edged up to 25,104.25. Globally, the dollar index (DXY) rose 0.15% to 99.09, indicating a strengthening US dollar against major currencies. "The next major directional cue for USD-INR could come from risk sentiment and the broader dollar trend. A sustained move above 100 in DXY could push USD-INR past 86.00, possibly toward 86.50," Banerjee said. Meanwhile, Brent crude was up 0.18% at $67.16 per barrel in futures trading. Global sentiment hinges on US-China talks, CPI data Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan, said, "Optimism over US-China trade talks boosted global risk appetite, but a stronger dollar and rising crude limited rupee gains." He added that US CPI data due this week could be a key trigger. "USD-INR is likely to trade in the 85.35 to 86 range in the near term," Choudhary said. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
