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First Post
3 days ago
- Politics
- First Post
Amid mystery over uranium, expert tells how Iran could've moved it out of nuclear sites
Amid mystery about the location of Iran's uranium stockpile and reports it could have been moved out before US strikes, an expert has explained how Iran could have moved it out of the nuclear sites struck by the United States. Read to know how uranium could have been moved and what we know of its status. read more A satellite image shows damage to the tunnel entrances of the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Research Centre, following US airstrikes amid the Iran-Israel conflict, in Isfahan, Iran. Maxar Technologies/Reuters While there is no clarity about the whereabouts of Iran's highly enriched uranium, an expert has explained how Iran could have moved it out of nuclear sites attacked by the United States last week. Iran was understood to have stored 60 per cent highly-enriched uranium at Isfahan and Fordow nuclear sites that the United States struck last month. The Fordow site was struck with GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) 'bunker buster' bombs and Isfahan was hit with submarine-launched Tomahawk missiles. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD While the Donald Trump administration has maintained that US strikes obliterated these sites, independent analysts have said that the US strikes imposed significant but not irreversible damage. There are also signs that the uranium stockpile to the tune of 440 kilograms was not destroyed. Even though the relocation of radioactive highly enriched uranium appears difficult, it is quite simple as such uranium is in gas form of uranium hexafluoride and can be transported in cylinders in trucks, Daryl G Kimball, the Director of Arms Control Association, told Fox News' Jennifer Griffin. Satellite imagery has shown several trucks lined up at the Fordow nuclear site in the days leading to US strikes. Observers have said that those trucks could have been used to transport uranium out of the site before the US strikes. Such an assessment is backed by the fact that no radioactive contamination was detected after strikes at Fordow, suggesting that either the site had no uranium or US bombs did not hit any uranium there. Expert explains how Iran could've moved uranium Kimball said that highly enriched uranium in gaseous form is highly mobile and can be transported in cylinders that might look like a water heater in a house or a scuba tank. As the stockpile was just 440 kgs, it could therefore be moved in 40-50 cylinders in two-three trucks. 'It doesn't require that many vehicles to move it. There's no radiation that's leaking that requires special protection. There has to be protection. So it is not that difficult to move,' Kimball told Fox Chief National Security Correspondent Griffin. Kimball agreed with analysts who have said that the Isfahan site is unlikely to have been destroyed by Tomahawk missiles. He said that the evidence suggests that Iranians indeed moved the uranium out of sites that Israel and United States struck. 'The Iranians had notified just before the Israeli military action that if attacked, they would take the uranium enriched at 60 per cent, the 440 kilograms, out of the facilities and move it somewhere else. I think we have to assume they've done that. They were planning for these strikes. It may be the case that Israeli intelligence thinks it knows where Iran took this. I'm actually doubtful, but you never know. But most likely they have moved it. And the IAEA has said they don't know where it is. JD Vance said the United States does not know where it is. So that's a problem,' said Kimball. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Does it mean US strikes failed? Not that simple Iran's relocation of uranium does not mean that US and Israeli strikes failed at not all components needed to make nuclear bombs were likely relocated. The uranium that Iran likely relocated was just 60 per cent enriched whereas it takes around 90 per cent enriched uranium to make a nuclear bomb. Iran needs centrifuges to further enrich any uranium to weapons-grade level of 90 per cent. It's unlikely that Iran managed to save centrifuges like uranium stockpile. Kimball said, 'It is very difficult to power down, package up the centrifuge machines. So it's unlikely that Iran was able to salvage workable centrifuge machines before the strikes from Natanz and Fordow.' However, even that is not an irremovable obstacle in the way of Iran making a nuclear weapon if it decides to. 'The bottom line is that the Iranians likely have residual capabilities either in undisclosed sites and they have centrifuge workshops that can reassemble or rebuild these machines. And, if uninterrupted, eventually they can —if they want to— reconstitute a large portion of what was destroyed in these strikes. So, as I said, the strikes can set back the programme, it cannot eliminate it completely,' said Kimball. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
Where is Iran's enriched uranium? Questions loom after Trump claims victory.
WASHINGTON − Amid President Donald Trump's scramble to save the Israel-Iran ceasefire and his claims to have "obliterated" Iranian nuclear sites, a key question remains unanswered − where's the uranium? Trump's June 23 ceasefire announcement came after his administration said it destroyed three of Iran's major nuclear facilities – Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. The U.S. strikes "completely and totally obliterated" Iran's nuclear facilities, Trump said June 21 after the bombs were dropped. Initial assessments showed all three sites "sustained extremely severe damage and destruction," Gen. Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters. But watchers of Iran's nuclear program say a massive question mark looms over the U.S. operation – what happened to Iran's enriched uranium? That's "not the question before us," Vice President JD Vance said in a June 23 Fox News interview, dodging the question of what happened to Iran's uranium stockpile. The bombing had, more importantly, destroyed Tehran's ability to enrich uranium to the level needed for a nuclear weapon, he said. "I do think that the uranium was buried," he added. Nuclear experts disagreed. "Significant nuclear materials remain unaccounted for," said Kelsey Davenport, the Arms Control Association's director for nonproliferation policy. "Our understanding is that some of them were taken away by Iran, and we don't know where they are," David Albright, a former United Nations nuclear weapons inspector, said of the enriched uranium stockpiles in a June 24 CNN interview. More: Inside the attack: Details revealed of secret US mission to bomb Iran Satellite images showed new craters at the Fordow and Natanz facilities where U.S. "bunker buster" bombs made impact. "It is clear that Fordow was also directly impacted, but the degree of damage inside the uranium enrichment halls can't be determined with certainty,' Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said in a June 22 report. Officials and nuclear experts say most of Iran's enriched uranium was stored in an underground complex near the Isfahan facility, which the U.S. struck with Tomahawk missiles fired from a Navy submarine, demolishing several above-ground facilities, satellite images show. Grossi reported damage to several buildings and entrances to the underground storage tunnels, but it's unclear what happened to any uranium that may have been held in the tunnels. "It does not appear like the underground facility has been targeted at all," said Sam Lair, a research associate at Middlebury College's James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. "Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan all include deeply buried facilities where it will be challenging to assess the extent of the damage without boots on the ground at these sites," said Davenport. Lair said Iran had ample time to move enriched uranium out of the underground tunnels before Israel first struck the facility on June 13. Even if they had not yet moved the uranium by the time Israel launched its first attack of the 12-day conflict, "they had a period where Isfahan was not being targeted, and they could have done so," he said. Satellite images from Maxar Technology captured vehicles activity at Fordow in the days leading up to the U.S. strikes, including a line of cargo trucks parked outside. And Hassan Abedini, deputy political director for Iran's state broadcaster, told reporters after the U.S. bombing that Iran "didn't suffer a major blow because the materials had already been taken out." Iran's enriched uranium is central to Israeli and U.S. justifications for their attacks. According to the IAEA, Iran has enriched more than 400 kilograms − about 880 pounds − of uranium to 60%, enough to make around nine nuclear weapons if it is further enriched to weapons grade, which is around 90%. "The risk posed by the 60% enriched uranium is amplified because Iran may have also stashed centrifuges at an undeclared site," said Davenport. On June 13, the day Israel launched its attack on Iran, citing the dangers of its nuclear program, the IAEA said Iran had revealed plans for a new enrichment site. "The Iranians, on some level, were preparing for an outcome similar to this," Lair said. Another site is "ready to have centrifuges installed somewhere, and not very many people are talking about it." On June 24, Iranian nuclear chief Mohammad Eslami told Mehr News the nuclear program – which Iran asserts is peaceful – would be restored. "The plan is to prevent interruptions in the process of production and services," Eslami said. But Trump vowed in a post on Truth Social: "IRAN WILL NEVER REBUILD THEIR NUCLEAR FACILITIES!" This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: What happened to Iran's enriched uranium? Experts say it's a mystery
The Herald Scotland
6 days ago
- Politics
- The Herald Scotland
What happened to Iran's enriched uranium? Experts say it's a mystery
The U.S. strikes "completely and totally obliterated" Iran's nuclear facilities, Trump said June 21 after the bombs were dropped. Buried? Spirited away? No answers on Iran's enriched uranium. Initial assessments showed all three sites "sustained extremely severe damage and destruction," Gen. Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters. But watchers of Iran's nuclear program say a massive question mark looms over the U.S. operation - what happened to Iran's enriched uranium? That's "not the question before us," Vice President JD Vance said in a June 23 Fox News interview, dodging the question of what happened to Iran's uranium stockpile. The bombing had, more importantly, destroyed Tehran's ability to enrich uranium to the level needed for a nuclear weapon, he said. "I do think that the uranium was buried," he added. 'Unaccounted for' Nuclear experts disagreed. "Significant nuclear materials remain unaccounted for," said Kelsey Davenport, the Arms Control Association's director for nonproliferation policy. "Our understanding is that some of them were taken away by Iran, and we don't know where they are," David Albright, a former United Nations nuclear weapons inspector, said of the enriched uranium stockpiles in a June 24 CNN interview. More: Inside the attack: Details revealed of secret US mission to bomb Iran Satellite images showed new craters at the Fordow and Natanz facilities where U.S. "bunker buster" bombs made impact. "It is clear that Fordow was also directly impacted, but the degree of damage inside the uranium enrichment halls can't be determined with certainty," Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said in a June 22 report. Officials and nuclear experts say most of Iran's enriched uranium was stored in an underground complex near the Isfahan facility, which the U.S. struck with Tomahawk missiles fired from a Navy submarine, demolishing several above-ground facilities, satellite images show. Grossi reported damage to several buildings and entrances to the underground storage tunnels, but it's unclear what happened to any uranium that may have been held in the tunnels. "It does not appear like the underground facility has been targeted at all," said Sam Lair, a research associate at Middlebury College's James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. "Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan all include deeply buried facilities where it will be challenging to assess the extent of the damage without boots on the ground at these sites," said Davenport. Did Iran move its uranium stocks before U.S. bombed? Lair said Iran had ample time to move enriched uranium out of the underground tunnels before Israel first struck the facility on June 13. Even if they had not yet moved the uranium by the time Israel launched its first attack of the 12-day conflict, "they had a period where Isfahan was not being targeted, and they could have done so," he said. Satellite images from Maxar Technology captured vehicles activity at Fordow in the days leading up to the U.S. strikes, including a line of cargo trucks parked outside. And Hassan Abedini, deputy political director for Iran's state broadcaster, told reporters after the U.S. bombing that Iran "didn't suffer a major blow because the materials had already been taken out." Iran's enriched uranium is central to Israeli and U.S. justifications for their attacks. According to the IAEA, Iran has enriched more than 400 kilograms - about 880 pounds - of uranium to 60%, enough to make around nine nuclear weapons if it is further enriched to weapons grade, which is around 90%. Secret sites, future enrichment? "The risk posed by the 60% enriched uranium is amplified because Iran may have also stashed centrifuges at an undeclared site," said Davenport. On June 13, the day Israel launched its attack on Iran, citing the dangers of its nuclear program, the IAEA said Iran had revealed plans for a new enrichment site. "The Iranians, on some level, were preparing for an outcome similar to this," Lair said. Another site is "ready to have centrifuges installed somewhere, and not very many people are talking about it." On June 24, Iranian nuclear chief Mohammad Eslami told Mehr News the nuclear program - which Iran asserts is peaceful - would be restored. "The plan is to prevent interruptions in the process of production and services," Eslami said. But Trump vowed in a post on Truth Social: "IRAN WILL NEVER REBUILD THEIR NUCLEAR FACILITIES!"
Yahoo
6 days ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
Trump Backtracks on Booting Out Mullahs After Ceasefire
Donald Trump has walked back his previous push for regime change in Iran, admitting it would cause 'chaos' to an already fragile conflict. As tensions continue to simmer over the risk of retaliation against the US, the president also suggested that his predecessor, Joe Biden, was to blame for Iranian sleeper cells entering America. 'There was gross incompetence, and among everything else, he let a lot of super (sleeper) cells in, many from Iran. But hopefully we'll take care of them,' Trump claimed on Tuesday. The comments came as Trump travelled to the Netherlands for a NATO summit, hours after brokering what he insisted would be a lasting ceasefire between Israel and Iran. But despite musing over the weekend about a potential regime change in Iran, contradicting assurances from his top Cabinet members that toppling the Islamic Republic was not the administration's goal, Trump on Tuesday told reporters: 'I don't want it. I'd like to see everything calm down as quickly as possible.' 'Regime change takes chaos, and ideally, we don't want to see so much chaos. So we'll see how it goes,' he added. He also told reporters that he had spoken by phone to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, demanding that he bring back military aircraft and not continue to bomb Iran. After speaking to Netanyahu, he then posted a message on his social media network insisting that Israel would comply with his request. 'All planes will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly 'Plane Wave' to Iran. Nobody will be hurt, the Ceasefire is in effect! Thank you for your attention to this matter!' he said. Trump's NATO trip comes after a stunning few days in the Middle East conflict, which began on Saturday when America launched B-2s to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities, and culminated on Monday evening when Trump declared a ceasefire had been reached between Israel and Iran. But things quickly took a turn when it appeared that both sides had violated the agreement, prompting an expletive-laden tirade from Trump as he left the White House en route to the Netherlands. 'They don't know what the f---- they're doing,' he said. It is also still not clear how much highly enriched uranium Iran was able to move to a secret location before the U.S. was able to bomb its three known nuclear facilities. This has prompted fears that the regime could still have the capacity to build a nuclear bomb in the future, even though the weekend strikes severely damaged its enrichment program. 'Tehran had ample time prior to the strikes to remove its stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium to a covert location, and it's likely that they did so,' said Kelsey Davenport, the director of non-proliferation policy at the Arms Control Association. 'The containers that this material is stored in are small canisters, something on the size of a scuba tank, for reference, so they're quite easy to conceal and difficult to track. So it's not surprising that the United States has even admitted that it does not know where all of the material is.' Trump, however, insisted that having a nuclear weapon was 'the last thing' on Iran's mind now. 'They're going to get on to being a great trading nation,' said. 'They have a lot of oil and they're going to do well, but they're not going to have a nuclear weapon.' Meanwhile, in the U.S., the conflict has once again sparked concern about sleeper cells–groups of terrorists who are already in the country but operating under the radar, waiting to be activated. While authorities say there is no credible evidence of a sleeper cell, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection warned in a memo to be vigilant as the threat of a sleeper cell or sympathizer acting at the behest of Iran had 'never been higher.' Asked about the issue aboard Air Force One, Trump blamed his predecessor. 'He had no idea what he was doing,' the president said of Biden.
NBC News
6 days ago
- Politics
- NBC News
Even after U.S. and Israeli strikes, Iran may still be able to build a nuclear weapon
Israel hailed its offensive against Iran as a success on Tuesday as it thanked its closest ally, the United States, for its role in 'eliminating' the Iranian nuclear threat. But experts say those celebrations are likely premature, with an accurate picture of the impact of U.S. and Israeli strikes targeting Iran's nuclear program unclear, and hundreds of pounds of enriched uranium still unaccounted for. 'It's far too soon for the United States or Israel to claim that Iran's nuclear program has been destroyed,' Kelsey Davenport of the Arms Control Association told NBC News on Monday. Too soon to tell While President Donald Trump claimed over the weekend that the U.S. had 'completely and fully obliterated' Tehran's key nuclear sites, including Fordo, buried deep under a mountain, Isfahan and Natanz, the full impact of the strikes remains unclear. Meanwhile, nearly 400 kilograms, or 880 pounds, of uranium enriched to 60% purity is still publicly unaccounted for. Iran has maintained that it does not seek to build nuclear weapons, but its rapid acceleration in uranium enrichment, as reported by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), sparked alarm before Israel's and the U.S.' strikes. Power plants require the radioactive metal to be enriched to only 3%-5%, whereas 90% is required to build a nuclear warhead. Rafael Grossi, director general of the IAEA, the United Nations nuclear watchdog, on Sunday said that damage was visible at the Fordo and Natanz sites after American B-2 Spirit bombers dropped 14 GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator munitions, also known as 'bunker busters.' Submarine-fired Tomahawk cruise missiles hit targets at Isfahan. But he said 'no one' including his agency was 'in a position to assess the underground damage at Fordo' as he called for inspectors to be allowed to visit Iran's nuclear sites to account for the stockpiles of uranium and, in particular, 'the 400kg enriched to 60%.' On Tuesday, Israel declared its operation against Iran a success as it said it had agreed to a shaky ceasefire announced earlier by Trump. Trump accused both sides of violating the ceasefire, telling reporters he was going to see if he could bring an end to the infractions as he looks to force Tehran back to the negotiations on its nuclear program. Was enriched uranium moved? It's unclear whether the enriched uranium might have been moved before the U.S. launched its strikes on Saturday. Sen. Markwayne Mullin, R-Okla., suggested Monday in an interview with CNBC that U.S. intelligence had found that Iran did not move nuclear material from its Fordo facility before the U.S. attack. NBC News was not able to independently verify that. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had warned IAEA director Grossi in a letter on June 13 that Iran would adopt 'special measures to protect our nuclear equipment and materials.' Images taken two days before the U.S. strike on Fordo released by Maxar Technologies, which provides satellite images used by various government agencies, show 16 cargo trucks on an access road leading up to the nuclear enrichment facility, with images captured the following day showing the trucks had moved away from the sites.
