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Iran starts new nuclear game of ‘keep the world guessing'
Iran starts new nuclear game of ‘keep the world guessing'

The Age

timean hour ago

  • Politics
  • The Age

Iran starts new nuclear game of ‘keep the world guessing'

An axiom in the national security world says you cannot bomb a country into giving up its nuclear weapons programs. The attack itself only reinforces a country's determination to build the ultimate deterrent. Ten days after US President Donald Trump deployed the United States' most powerful bunker busters and missiles from an offshore submarine to take out three of Iran's most critical nuclear sites, that proposition is about to be tested in real life. On Wednesday, in what may be a glimpse of the future, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a new law suspending all co-operation with United Nations nuclear inspectors. The move violates Iran's obligations as a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. But after American B-2 Spirit bombers flew roughly 11,250 kilometres non-stop to attack facilities that came to represent Iran's determination to take on the US and Israel, such legal niceties may not seem as important to the Iranians as they once did. And a new chapter in the quarter-century saga of Iran's nuclear aspirations may now be starting, one in which the country's main objective is to keep the world guessing about how swiftly it can recover from a devastating setback – and whether it has the uranium, the hidden technological capability and the will to race for a bomb. By any short-term measure – the only yardsticks the White House wants to talk about – the mission in the early hours of June 22 was a success. No regional war broke out, as past presidents who considered similar military action always feared. Even sceptics about how long the Iranians were set back – six months? Three years? – acknowledge that the 18,000 centrifuges that were spinning at supersonic speeds, producing near-bomb-grade uranium at a record pace, are now inoperable. Most experts believe they were destroyed. Trump talks as if this were a one-and-done operation. 'I don't see them being back involved in the nuclear business any more,' Trump said at the NATO summit in The Hague last week, as if Iran's aspirations had disappeared beneath the rubble of Fordow and Natanz. It may not be that simple. As the United States and Iran stumble toward a post-bombing reality, the White House has avoided any public description of a longer-term strategy. Trump has hinted occasionally about new negotiations that could lead to the lifting of sanctions – but presumably only in return for Iran's commitment to dismantle whatever is left of its nuclear program and let inspectors roam the country verifying that work. That does not seem to match the mood in Iran right now. Not surprisingly, Trump has also said he is 'absolutely' willing to strike again if there are signs that the country is trying to rebuild its capabilities. Israeli officials refer to that approach as 'mowing the lawn'. But that suggests a constant state of low-level war. And it creates the likelihood that Iran will use the mystery around the fate and whereabouts of its near-bomb-grade uranium, and the prospect of a secret cache of uncompleted new centrifuges, as leverage.

Pentagon says Iran nuclear program set back ‘closer to 2 years' after US strikes
Pentagon says Iran nuclear program set back ‘closer to 2 years' after US strikes

New York Post

timean hour ago

  • Politics
  • New York Post

Pentagon says Iran nuclear program set back ‘closer to 2 years' after US strikes

US airstrikes on Iran set back the regime's nuclear program between one to two years, but likely 'closer to two,' the Pentagon's top spokesperson said Wednesday. 'Our assessment of the battle damage around Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan remains unchanged,' Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell told reporters during a press briefing. 'We believe, and certainly all of the intelligence that we've seen has led us to believe, that those facilities, especially, have been completely obliterated.' US allies share the Department of Defense's internal intelligence assessments of the effectiveness of last month's military operation on Iran's uranium enrichment sites, Parnell noted, including how long the Pentagon expects it will now take the Islamic Republic to build a nuclear weapon. 'We have degraded their program by one to two years, at least,' Parnell said. 'We're thinking probably closer to two years,' he added. The Pentagon believes Iran is now close to two years away from developing a nuclear weapon. @SecDef Last month, President Trump and several top administration officials slammed a leaked preliminary assessment of Operation Midnight Hammer, which reportedly indicated Iran could bring its nuclear program back online in as quickly as one to two months. The classified Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) bomb damage assessment — reported by the New York Times and CNN — estimated that on the high end, Iran could restart uranium enrichment within a year, according to those who viewed the report. Multiple B-2 Spirit stealth bombers dropped 14, 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs on Iranian nuclear sites as part of Operation Midnight Hammer on June 22. Fourteen GBU-57 Massive Ordinance Penetrator bombs were used in the US operation, dubbed 'Midnight Hammer.' USAF / SWNS The attack was complemented by a barrage of dozens of Tomahawk cruise missiles fired by a US submarine. Trump ordered the airstrike after intelligence pointed to Iran getting close to developing a nuclear weapon and after more than a week of back-and-forth strikes between Tehran and Israel. Trump told Fox News' 'Sunday Morning Futures' that the attack 'meant the end to [Iran's] nuclear ambitions, at least for a period of time.'

The U.S. military can't quit the Middle East
The U.S. military can't quit the Middle East

Axios

time15 hours ago

  • Politics
  • Axios

The U.S. military can't quit the Middle East

If you're in the defense business, you've seen this meme in one form or another. "Born too late to deploy to the Middle East," it reads. "Born too early to deploy to the Middle East," it continues. "Born just in time to deploy to the Middle East," it concludes. Why it matters: Flippant? Yes. Compelling? Also yes, as the image's virality today reflects just how entangled the U.S. is in the troubled region, even as it promises to pivot more fully to the Chinese and Russian threat. This is geopolitical tug of war, spiked with public cynicism. Driving the news: Surprise strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities using B-2 Spirit bombers and 100-plus other aircraft marked Washington's latest foray into the Middle East, where for decades it's expended taxpayer dollars and lives. (Think Afghanistan, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen.) Meanwhile, the Pentagon frets over Beijing and Moscow and their global ambitions. But the resources needed for that competition — including heavy-duty, traditional military hardware like aircraft carriers — are in high demand elsewhere. Friction point: "There is a disconnect between what we, the United States, say in our national defense strategies and those sorts of products and what actually happens on the ground," Brian Carter, a Middle East expert at the American Enterprise Institute, told Axios. "The problem is: We episodically prioritize the Middle East over China," he said. "Wehaven't been good about ensuring that we put enough effort into the Middle East to make sure that things don't spiral out of control." "When we have to surge all this stuff in, we're always reactive." Between the lines: Pentagon officials and military leaders have been hinting at this dynamic. Elbridge Colby, the undersecretary of defense for policy, has long lobbied for prioritizing China over Europe and the Middle East. During his March confirmation hearing, Colby told senators the U.S. lacks "a multi-war military." Indo-Pacific Command boss Adm. Samuel Paparo in November said support provided to Israel and Ukraine was "eating into" some of the most precious U.S. weapons stockpiles. In April, he revealed it took at least 73 flights to move a Patriot air-defense battalion out of China's backyard and into Central Command. And most recently — just days ago — Acting Chief of Naval Operations Adm. James Kilby told lawmakers the Navy is chewing through Standard Missile-3s at "an alarming rate." The service has used more than $1 billion in munitions fighting Houthi rebels near the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, and the USS Harry S. Truman has lost three Super Hornet aircraft, including one to friendly fire. Zoom out: "The Middle East is the space where four things come together," Daryl Press, the faculty director at the Davidson Institute for Global Security, said in an interview. "It's terrorism and terrorist groups." "It's nuclear weapons and potential for proliferation." "It's the world's most important exportable energy supplies." "And then it's a bunch of countries which have, I would say, somewhat weak control over their borders and airspace."

Agni-5 To 'Bunker Buster': Is India Building The World's Heaviest Non-Nuclear Weapon?
Agni-5 To 'Bunker Buster': Is India Building The World's Heaviest Non-Nuclear Weapon?

News18

time17 hours ago

  • Politics
  • News18

Agni-5 To 'Bunker Buster': Is India Building The World's Heaviest Non-Nuclear Weapon?

Last Updated: The Agni-5 missile will reportedly be able to penetrate up to 100 metres underground before explosion, significantly improving its potential against deeply buried military targets News18 In the wake of the United States' dramatic use of bunker-buster bombs against Iran's heavily fortified Fordow nuclear facility on June 22, India appears to be charting its own ambitious course in advanced deep-penetration strike capability. Armed with lessons from modern warfare and a growing strategic imperative to keep pace with global superpowers, India is now preparing to develop one of the most powerful non-nuclear bunker buster missiles ever conceived, and it's doing so by modifying its intercontinental Agni-5 ballistic missile. At the heart of this project is a bold plan by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) to build a conventionally armed variant of the Agni-5. While the original Agni-5 is a nuclear-capable missile with a range exceeding 5,000 km, the new version is envisioned to carry an enormous 7,500 kg conventional warhead, nearly eight tonnes, designed specifically to obliterate enemy command bunkers, missile silos and fortified underground infrastructure. Inspired By GBU-57 MOP The inspiration, clearly, is the GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator, a 13-tonne precision bomb capable of penetrating 60 metres of reinforced concrete before detonation. Fourteen of these were reportedly used in the US strike on Fordow. But where the US relies on strategic bombers like the B-2 Spirit to drop such weapons, India is opting for a different approach, missile delivery. By adapting the Agni-5 for this role, India seeks to create a delivery system that's faster, longer-ranged and independent of large bombers. The modified missile will reportedly be able to penetrate up to 100 metres underground before explosion, significantly improving its potential against deeply buried military targets in countries like China or Pakistan. DRDO is reportedly working on two new versions of the Agni-5. One will carry an airburst warhead designed to devastate surface targets such as enemy airfields and command centres. The other is a deep-earth penetrator, a true bunker buster. Both variants are said to weigh up to eight tonnes and will have a reduced range of around 2,500 to 3,000 km compared to the original Agni-5. Yet what these missiles sacrifice in range, they more than make up for in destructive power. Their payloads are among the largest ever for a conventionally armed missile – potentially the heaviest in the world. Moreover, they are expected to travel at hypersonic speeds – between Mach 8 and Mach 20 – making interception nearly impossible and ensuring deep impact before detonation. Indigenous, Hypersonic, Strategic India's push into this new domain is part of a broader trend toward military self-reliance and strategic parity with major powers. By designing these missiles indigenously, India avoids dependency on foreign suppliers and sends a strong signal of its growing military and technological maturity. More importantly, India is leapfrogging conventional constraints by choosing to launch its bunker-busters via missile platforms rather than bombers. This not only reduces cost and complexity but also allows faster, longer-range strikes without needing to violate enemy airspace beforehand. Why Now? The US strike on Iran underscored how modern conflicts are increasingly fought not just above ground, but deep beneath it. Nuclear command centres, research labs, and missile storage facilities are now being housed in reinforced underground bunkers. India, faced with two nuclear-armed neighbours and an increasingly volatile region, knows it must prepare for such threats. What's more, the development aligns with India's ongoing hypersonic weapons program, which includes experimental platforms like the Hypersonic Technology Demonstrator Vehicle (HSTDV). Together, these initiatives could eventually transform India's strategic strike capabilities. While India has traditionally maintained a no-first-use nuclear posture, the development of such massive conventional strike weapons points to a shift in doctrine, one that places more emphasis on preemptive conventional capabilities. These missiles could serve as a deterrent without the escalatory risk of nuclear exchange.

"B2 Bombers Need To Visit Yemen": US Envoy Warns Houthis After Israel Strike
"B2 Bombers Need To Visit Yemen": US Envoy Warns Houthis After Israel Strike

NDTV

time20 hours ago

  • Politics
  • NDTV

"B2 Bombers Need To Visit Yemen": US Envoy Warns Houthis After Israel Strike

US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee threatened to launch B-2 Spirit stealth bombers in Yemen, after Israel intercepted a missile launched by the Houthis on Monday. "We thought we were done with missiles coming to Israel, but Houthis just lit one up over us in Israel. Fortunately, Israel's incredible interception system means we go to the shelter & wait until all clear," Mr Huckabee posted on X. "Maybe those B2 bombers need to visit Yemen!" he added. The envoy's reference to B2 bombers came days after the US used its most advanced strategic weapons to strike Iran's three nuclear sites last month, as it joined Israel's military campaign against its major rival. The Houthi rebels in Yemen are also backed by Iran. We thought we were done with missiles coming to Israel, but Houthis just lit one up over us in Israel. Fortunately, Israel's incredible interception system means we go to the shelter & wait until all clear. Maybe those B2 bombers need to visit Yemen! — Ambassador Mike Huckabee (@GovMikeHuckabee) July 1, 2025 The B-2 is capable of entering sophisticated air defenses and delivering precision strikes against hardened targets such as Iran's buried network of nuclear research facilities. The bomber's range of over 6,000 nautical miles (11,112 km) without refueling enables global strike capabilities from continental US bases. With aerial refueling, the B-2 can reach virtually any target worldwide, as demonstrated in missions from Missouri to Afghanistan and Libya and now Iran. Its payload capacity of more than 40,000 pounds (18,144 kg) allows the aircraft to carry a diverse array of conventional and nuclear weapons. The bomber's internal weapons bays are specifically designed to maintain stealth characteristics while accommodating large ordnance loads, which could include two GBU-57A/B MOP (Massive Ordnance Penetrator), a 30,000-pound precision-guided "bunker buster" bomb. The Houthi rebels have launched repeated missile and drone attacks against Israel since their Palestinian ally Hamas's October 2023 attack on Israel sparked the Gaza war. On Saturday, the Houthis said they fired a ballistic missile towards Israel, the first launch against Israel announced by the Houthis since the June 24 ceasefire between Israel and Iran which ended their 12-day war. The Houthis, who say they are acting in solidarity with Palestinians, paused their attacks during a two-month ceasefire in Gaza that ended in March, but renewed them after Israel broke the truce. Israel has carried out several retaliatory strikes in Yemen, targeting Houthi-held ports and the airport in the rebel-held capital Sanaa.

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