Latest news with #BeaconEconomics
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
How will Trump's immigration crackdown in California impact the economy?
President Donald Trump's administration is stepping up deportation efforts in California with immigration raids at restaurants, traffic stops and routine legal check-ins. The immigration crackdown, while popular with voters in polls, has sparked protests in Los Angeles. Long term, economists warn that fewer immigrants could take a hit to the economy, prompting labor shortages and slowing economic growth. "Immigrants play a huge role in the California economy,' said Giovanni Peri, an economics professor at the University of California, Davis. Without immigrants, 'there will be less economic growth. Less opportunity, also, for local companies and American workers.' 'Wave of panic': Businesses are in crosshairs of Trump immigration crackdown The country's economy has become 'very immigrant dependent,' according to Christopher Thornberg, founding partner at Beacon Economics, a Los Angeles research and consulting firm. About 479,000 U.S.-born workers were added to the labor force over the past five years compared with 3.6 million foreign-born workers, according to an October report from the National Foundation for American Policy, a nonpartisan research organization. The report pointed to a spike in immigration and retirements, coupled with a slowdown in U.S.-born working-age population growth. In California, immigrants make up roughly one-third of workers and comprise an outsize share of the workforce in physically intensive sectors like construction and agriculture. Critics say these workers are lowering wages for U.S.-born citizens or taking away jobs. But Peri said that doesn't pan out in the data. Immigrants may reduce wages for native-born Americans with competing skills, according to Harvard economics professor George Borjas, but it slightly increases the income of native-born citizens overall. A separate 2024 working paper co-authored by Peri found immigrants had no significant effect on wages for those born in the United States who are college educated and a positive effect on wages for their American-born peers who are less educated. Instead, Peri said immigrants are filling the holes in industries struggling to hire. Immigrants account for 28% of care workers in long-term care settings, according to the nonprofit health policy organization KFF. In California, immigrants make up 44% of manufacturing jobs and 40% of construction jobs, according to the Economic Policy Institute, a left-leaning think tank based in Washington, DC. Some of those jobs are held by undocumented workers. About 1.8 million people, or 17% of immigrants in California, were undocumented as of 2022, according to Pew. The vast majority – 1.4 million – had no legal protections through programs like Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals or active asylum claims. "It would be lovely to deal with this with an expansion of the legal immigration system,' Peri said. 'But lacking that, undocumented immigrants are doing a lot of these jobs. And losing some of them would make the situation worse.' Pushing away immigrants, Peri argues, prevents companies from growing and creating more jobs that would benefit U.S.-born workers. One 2024 analysis from Jamshid Damooei, executive director of the Center for Economics of Social Issues at California Lutheran University, found work from undocumented employees created an additional 1.25 million jobs in California. And because the vast majority of undocumented immigrants are not criminals, but people who have been part of their local communities for years if not decades, 'in the majority of cases, the effects of just indiscriminately deporting these people is going to have very little benefit for the American people,' Peri said. It's true that immigrants add costs for the government; they benefit from public education, health services and other state-specific policies. But research generally finds immigration tends to raise the federal government's revenue more than its costs, with immigrants adding an estimated $1.2 trillion in federal revenues between 2024 and 2034, according to the Congressional Budget Office. State and local governments' costs tend to increase more than their revenues from a surge in immigration, but Peri said the rise in immigration is a net benefit overall. Even undocumented workers, Peri argued, boost the government's coffers because they pay a considerable amount of taxes. At the same time, they are ineligible for most federal benefits like Social Security and food stamps. Undocumented immigrants contributed $8.5 billion in state and local taxes in 2022, according to a 2024 study from the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, a nonpartisan think tank. Trump and Newsom: Trump's battle with Newsom, California expands beyond immigration Thornberg doesn't expect Trump to deport every undocumented worker in the country, and views the crackdown in California as 'more of a blown-up spectacle' that 'may get tied up in the courts.' Already, Trump has said he would back off certain deportation efforts to avoid labor shortages in areas like agriculture and hospitality. 'Our great Farmers and people in the Hotel and Leisure business have been stating that our very aggressive policy on immigration is taking very good, long time workers away from them, with those jobs being almost impossible to replace,' Trump said in a June 12 post on Truth Social. 'Changes are coming!' While an immediate labor shortage is unlikely, Thornberg believes we're more likely to see people discouraged from coming to the United States in the years to come, resulting in a tighter labor market. That could mean higher wages for workers as companies step up recruitment efforts, but it would slow economic growth overall. Trump's efforts to constrain immigration during his first term played out in a similar fashion; by 2019, the unemployment rate had dropped to 3.5%, its lowest level since 1969, with earnings up 3.5% from 2018. Meanwhile, economic growth slowed to 2.3%, down from 2.9% the year prior, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Peri said a tight labor market could have ripple effects across the economy, such as driving up the cost to produce certain items. Companies may be more inclined to import cheaper goods at a time when the Trump administration is pushing for more U.S. manufacturing through tariffs. 'This could have a cascade of effects,' he said. 'There is no doubt at all that immigration and immigrants who do those simple, manual jobs are very important at making the economy go.' This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Why the immigration crackdown could hurt California's economy
Miami Herald
09-06-2025
- Business
- Miami Herald
Bay Area hit hard by federal job cuts
As the Trump administration pursued a massive downsizing this year, the Bay Area lost more federal jobs than any other part of California, according to seasonally adjusted numbers compiled by Beacon Economics and the state Employment Development Department. Over the first four months of the year, California lost 1,200 federal jobs, data shows. Of those losses, the Bay Area accounted for 600 of the cuts - adding to the region's continuing job woes. "Most people don't realize the federal government is a major employer and job driver," said Russell Hancock, president of San Jose-based think tank Joint Venture Silicon Valley. The Bay Area lost federal jobs this year at a pace that was nearly three times that of the state as a whole, and nearly twice the federal government's employment decline nationwide. Federal totals dropped 1.4% in the region in 2025 compared to a decline of 0.5% in California and 0.8% nationwide. The East Bay led the nine-county region with 300 federal job cuts in 2025 for a decline of 2.3%. The San Francisco-San Mateo metro area shed 200 federal positions, representing a 1.4% decline, and the South Bay had no change in its totals. Overall, the U.S. government eliminated 23,000 federal jobs nationwide this year. The cuts in the Bay Area arrive at a time when the job markets in both the state and region have floundered. "The loss of federal jobs creates another headwind for the region as it attempts to sustain some positive momentum on overall employment," said Jeff Bellisario, executive director of the Bay Area Council Economic Institute. The Bay Area lost 14,700 total nonfarm payroll jobs in all categories over the first four months of 2025. Over the same time, California lost 32,300 total payroll jobs, official reports from the state Employment Development Department show. "There is little doubt that federal government job losses will be an important contributor to the labor market malaise that already appears to be falling over the Bay Area," said Scott Anderson, chief economist with BMO Capital Markets. In sharp contrast, state and local government agencies have increased hiring, but that may soon change. "We're likely to see job declines in state and local governments beginning in July with the new fiscal year, and possibly before," said Michael Bernick, an employment attorney with law firm Duane Morris and a former director of the state EDD. He said some local and state agencies are not filling vacant positions. The increases occurred despite frequent warnings that belt-tightening and layoffs loom as California and local public agency officials warn about budget shortfalls. "Continued government job gains at the state and local level in the Bay Area are more than making up for the loss of federal jobs in the region," Anderson said. "There will be more belt-tightening ahead. State and local governments don't have the same luxury of papering over their budget shortfalls with massive borrowing." In addition, state and local government agencies have yet to feel the effects of cutbacks from federal programs whose dollars might support a certain level of staffing, some experts warn. "The gains in state and local government jobs are likely temporary," said Steve Levy, director of the Palo Alto-based Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy. "Slower economic growth and federal grant cuts will hit budgets in the Bay Area, the state and the nation." In the U.S., federal employment reached what appeared to be an all-time high of roughly 3.015 million jobs in January. But starting in February, that number decreased for three consecutive months as President Donald Trump and tech billionaire Elon Musk attempted to trim the federal workforce. "Firing huge numbers of federal employees won't decrease the need for government services," Everett Kelley, president of the American Federation of Government Employees, the nation's largest union that represents federal workers, said in February. "It will just make those services harder or impossible to access." Reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that federal job cuts in the Washington, D.C., metro area were at a significantly greater pace than the nation as a whole. According to an assessment of employment totals posted by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Washington, D.C., shed 3,300 federal government jobs in 2025. Similarly, Virginia lost 5,100 positions, a decline of 2.6%, while Maryland shed 5,300, a drop of 3.3%. Job losses within the federal government could become far worse in the months ahead, some experts warn. "These numbers are the tip of the iceberg," Levy said. "The majority of federal job cuts are not reflected in the April data." The federal employee separation and downsizing procedures are among the reasons behind the relatively modest job losses. "A good number of federal workers whose jobs are being eliminated are formally still on administrative leave," Bernick said. "We should see the federal job cuts more fully reflected in the national and state monthly jobs reports in the next few months." Copyright (C) 2025, Tribune Content Agency, LLC. Portions copyrighted by the respective providers.
Mint
08-06-2025
- Business
- Mint
The US economy is headed toward an uncomfortable summer
The U.S. economy, which weathered false recession alarms in 2023 and 2024, is entering another uncomfortable summer. Job growth held steady in May, with the economy adding 139,000 jobs. The unemployment rate has stayed in a tight range, between 4% and 4.2%, over the past year. But there are cracks beneath the surface. Businesses are warning that constantly shifting trade policies are interfering with their ability to plan for the future, leading to hiring and investment freezes. Policy uncertainty has unfolded against the backdrop of an economy with slower job growth and a cooling housing market. Compared with last year, the Federal Reserve is more reluctant to cut interest rates because officials are worried about new inflation risks. John Starr, the owner of UltraSource, an importer and manufacturer of meat-processing technology in Kansas City, Mo., said he is hunkering down—no hiring, no more capital spending—until he has clarity on tariffs. 'We're going to be very careful about any cash expenditure' amid uncertainty on tariffs, says John Starr, owner of UltraSource. The company is waiting for suppliers in Europe to finish work on $20 million in orders it placed before 10% tariffs took effect on April 9. That means he faces a $2 million levy if tariffs stay at that level. 'How am I supposed to pay this?" said Starr, a third-generation owner of the company. 'That could wipe out profits for a year." Whether the economy again bends, rather than breaks, turns on how the U.S. consumer handles the latest curveball—this time from President Trump's desire to reorder America's trading relationships and reduce reliance on imported goods. For months, the president has announced one large tariff increase after another, at times wavering from escalation to temporary resolution. 'Where this goes all depends on what Trump decides to do next, and candidly, even Trump doesn't know what Trump will do next," said Christopher Thornberg, founding partner at Beacon Economics in Los Angeles. 'So it's almost impossible to see where this thing is heading." Economists largely agree that for the U.S. economy to slide into recession, the American consumer needs to falter. 'As long as the consumer is doing OK, it's not going to change our world," said Ric Campo, chief executive of Camden Property Trust, a Houston-based developer and owner of 58,000 apartment homes. Most economists think the prospects of a recession are higher than they were at the beginning of the year but lower than in April and early May, when tariffs on China had been increased by 145%. The U.S. agreed to roll back the tariff increase to 30% last month. Most other nations face 10% tariff increases, with higher rates on dozens of countries paused until early July. Three risks loom large. • First, the U.S. labor market has been in an uneasy equilibrium where companies aren't hiring but are reluctant to fire workers that they hustled to find three or four years ago. Like a beach ball that shoots skyward after being held underwater, joblessness can quickly jump once companies decide demand is too soft to keep those workers. 'It starts with one large firm. Then competitors might say, 'Well, listen, we have to do the same,'" said Gregory Daco, chief economist at consulting firm EY. Bill Hutton, president of Titan Steel, a Baltimore-based distributor and processor of mostly imported steel for products such as paint cans, said he is going to 'err on the side of caution" when it comes to reducing the size of his workforce. Having worked so hard to staff up, he said, he is 'very, very leery of making assumptions that, 'Oh, we can dial up or down our workforce at a moment's notice.' " • Second, consumers could finally push back against rising costs, forcing companies to tighten their belts. Delinquency rates on consumer debt have been on the rise for a year, raising fears that deteriorating finances for low-income borrowers could lead to a more pronounced slowdown in consumer spending. For the housing market, the spring sales season has been a bust. The U.S. market now has nearly 500,000 more sellers than buyers, according to real-estate brokerage Redfin. That is the largest gap since its tally began in 2013. Home prices could fall 1% this year, said Redfin economist Chen Zhao. 'The market has been at rock bottom for the last 2½ years and there was some hope that we'd get a little bit of a turnaround this year. And it's just actually been worse than expected," said Zhao. • Third, financial-market shocks or abrupt sentiment changes remain a wild card. The Fed reduced short-term interest rates by 1 percentage point last year, providing a measure of relief to borrowers with credit cards or variable-rate bank loans. Officials hit pause on rate cuts this year amid concerns that tariffs might create new inflation risks. Longer-term borrowing rates, which aren't set by the Fed and which influence many borrowing costs such as mortgages, have been elevated as investors around the world pay more attention to how governments will finance rising deficits in the years to come. Any sudden and sustained rise in borrowing costs could spill over to the stock market, hurting companies' earnings and making stocks less attractive. Lofty asset prices have supported business investment and high-income consumer spending. For many companies, the uncertainty triggered by Trump's sudden and seemingly arbitrary announcements of tariffs has upended the outlook for sales this year. Starr, at UltraSource, orders equipment that has a lead time measured in months. Because those products are made to each customer's specifications, Starr can't resell them if clients refuse to eat the cost of the tariff. 'I have to take action now," Starr said. 'We're going to be very careful about any cash expenditure just because we need that cash to pay the tariff." White House officials have said they are confident the president's approach will lead to better trading relationships. 'In order to get another country to eat the burden of the tariffs, we have to have a credible threat to move our supply chains across the border…It can take some time to make that threat credible," Stephen Miran, chairman of the president's Council of Economic Advisers, said in an interview. Miran said he couldn't produce a forecast for inflation this year because 'we're still waiting for policy details to be fully fleshed out right now." He also said businesses would benefit from a tax-cut package moving through Congress. Starr, who said he has already racked up $300,000 in unanticipated expenses because of tariffs, said the prospect of business tax cuts is of little use if his profits are zeroed out from tariffs. He said he doesn't object to paying a 20% tariff on prospective orders as long as he has certainty the duty won't suddenly change after he has negotiated purchase orders with customers and vendors. Steel and aluminum tariffs, which Trump this past week raised to 50% from 25%, could boost domestic metal producers while squeezing profits for carmakers, can manufacturers, and companies such as Titan Steel. Hutton, the steel company's president, said customers have been understanding about accepting some price increases because his competitors have also had to raise prices. 'It feels like we're muddling through," he said. 'Nobody—neither us, nor our customers, nor our overseas supplier—is in any position to do any long-term thinking." The Fed aggressively raised rates in 2022 and 2023 to combat inflation. But the U.S. economy was insulated because many households and businesses had already refinanced at ultralow rates during the pandemic. Later, the economy benefited from an unexpected boom in capital spending on artificial intelligence. Any pullback could be abrupt. 'It's very rare that you have a technology shock of this sort that doesn't lead to overbuilding," said Jason Thomas, chief economist at private-equity manager Carlyle Group. Some companies have held back from raising prices now until they can see how tariffs settle out. 'They just said, 'We cannot take the risk of souring relations with our customers, with our suppliers, over a policy that in two months' time may not even be in place,'" Thomas said. He expects businesses eventually will have to pass along some cost increases, however, because they will have depleted inventories acquired at pretariff rates. One tailwind—recent declines in energy prices—could help offset some of the inflationary impulses from tariffs. While the president often gets undue credit for what goes right or wrong in the economy, this time could be an exception. 'The economy has a lot of momentum, and so if Trump truly backs off on tariffs and just calms down, you could see this expansion going another two, three years, honestly," said Thornberg of Beacon Economics. 'Then again, if he keeps rocking the boat, you can blow it up by the beginning of next year."
Yahoo
15-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Filming in L.A. declines in 1st quarter
On-location filming within the greater Los Angeles area has taken a tumble within the first quarter of the year, according to a new report. It fell 22.24% from January to March 2025, according to FilmLA, a nonprofit that provides on-location film permits within the City and County of Los Angeles. Within the first quarter of 2025, 5,295 Shoot Days took place as opposed to 6,823 Shooting Days the same time in 2024. The nonprofit looked at the different filming categories and noted a decline in all of them. Commercial shoots within L.A. fell 2.1% and came 'closest to breakeven.' Ice Cube to be honored with Hollywood handprint ceremony Television production continues to be on the decline. So far this year, only 1,670 Shooting Days were logged, which is a decline of 30.5%. In 2024, 7,716 Shooting Days were tallied for the year. For context, in 2021, television production hit its peak with 18,560 Shooting Days for the year. Within three years this type of filming has fallen 58.4%. 'Each drop reflected the impact of global production cutbacks and California's ongoing loss of work to rival territories,' the report explained. Production of television dramas declined again by 38.9% with 440 Shooting Days. About 77 of those days, about 17.5%, were tied to the California Film & Television Tax Credit Program. Last year, Gov. Gavin Newsom unveiled a plan to expand the tax credit program, which incentivizes the production of films and television shows in California, by doubling the credit from $330 million to $750 million. FilmLA has been a staunch supporter of Newsom's expansion and are hoping to make the program 'internationally competitive' with bills SB630 and AB1138. 'The California Production Coalition estimates that the average location shoot adds $670,000 and 1,500 jobs a day to a local economy. And the County of Los Angeles and Beacon Economics report that there are 10,500 entertainment related businesses in the state,' said FilmLA VP of Integrated Communications Philip Sokoloski. TV Comedy production declined 29.9% with 110 Shooting Days. Reality Television declined 26.4% with 969 Shooting Days. 'Most TV Comedies are half-hour series, which are currently ineligible for California's film incentive. This makes them rich targets of opportunity for out-of-state competitors,' FilmLA said. 'Unscripted series had been a staple of the L.A. filming economy during the strikes of 2023. Last year's reality plunge delivered an unexpected shock and made 2024 the second-slowest year for filming in Greater L.A.' The 'other' category, which includes Still Photography, Student Films, Documentaries, Music and Industrial Videos, and other projects, dropped to 20.2% from last quarter. While many will assume January's Palisades and Eaton Fires caused the downfall, the report noted that the fires had 'only a small effect on L.A. area filming.' The region 'hosted 1,405 Shoot Days over the past four years – or roughly 1.3 percent of all regional filming.' 'Loss of filming opportunity in no way compares to the cost of the Eaton and Palisades Fires in terms of loss of life, resident displacement and property damage,' noted Sokoloski. 'The fires sent many productions scrambling to reschedule shoots and displaced hundreds of industry workers from their homes. But their impact on local filming levels appears to have been temporary.' About 545 different shoots were within burn zones. Burn areas were 'off-limits' due to City and County 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Yahoo
07-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
New study claims ‘significant' job losses since California's fast-food minimum wage increase
New research published by Pepperdine University is attempting to settle the debate over whether boosting the minimum wage for fast-food workers in California to $20 an hour has cost jobs. The study, released on April 1 to coincide with the one-year anniversary of AB 1228, says the sector has seen a 'significant' decline of over 23,100 jobs. At the same time, fast-food employment grew by 0.8% nationwide, researchers said. 'This new data should be a wake-up call for policymakers,' said Christopher Thornberg, founding partner at Beacon Economics, a private research group that partnered with Pepperdine's School of Public Policy. 'The employment losses in California's fast-food industry are now evident, and they confirm what many had warned about: Drastic wage hikes create real economic consequences, especially for entry-level workers.' The study's authors argue that raising the minimum wage could negatively impact more than just employment; it could also affect business sustainability, employee work hours and benefits. They recommend the state's Fast Food Council pause any new regulations, including another proposed wage increase, until 'unbiased, comprehensive research is conducted.' 'Please, sir, I want some more,' says California fast food workers' union Since its inception, the impact of AB 1228, which increased the minimum wage for workers at large fast-food chains by $4 per hour, or 25%, has been a hotly debated topic. Industry groups have consistently sparred with Gov. Gavin Newsom's office over how to interpret the jobs data. Both sides accuse the other of having inherent biases, and some previous studies showing significant fast-food job losses in California have, indeed, been retracted. Citing the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the governor's office told KTLA on Monday that average weekly wages in California's fast-food sector have increased by 12.9% year over year. Tom Manzo, founder of the California Business and Industrial Alliance and a fierce critic of AB 1228, isn't convinced. '(The Pepperdine University) report is just the latest confirmation that Governor Newsom's misguided fast-food minimum wage law is killing jobs across California,' Manzo said. 'When will enough be enough? Instead of spending time launching a new podcast, our Governor should be focused on fixing his mistake for the sake of small business owners and their employees.' Two outcomes of AB 1228, however, are less ambiguous. First, increasing the minimum wage to $20 per hour has helped hundreds of thousands of fast-food workers in the Golden State make ends meet. Franchise owners say it has also helped with recruiting and retention. The other outcome is that customers are paying more for their burgers, chicken strips, French fries and tacos than before. Many fast-food chains began raising prices when AB 1228 was signed into law and continued to do so after it took effect. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
