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Business Recorder
05-07-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Revival of SAARC: new regional order
With the paralysis of The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) since 2016, South Asia's dream of economic and political integration has remained frozen. But today, a new dynamic is emerging—one that is being steered not by New Delhi but by Beijing and Islamabad. China and Pakistan are exploring a Beijing-led regional alternative to revitalize cooperation in South Asia. This development could redefine regional power dynamics, marginalize India's influence, and establish parallel regional orders. While this initiative opens new economic and diplomatic opportunities for smaller South Asian nations, it also introduces risks of regional fragmentation and geo-strategic rivalry. This brief outlines the key motivations, implications, and strategic options for the main stakeholders—Pakistan, China, India, and smaller regional states. Pakistan sees opportunity in SAARC where India sees stalemate as its advantage. With SAARC in paralysis and India preoccupied with bilateralism and Indo-Pacific strategic partnerships, Islamabad is stepping into the regional vacuum—backed by China's economic and diplomatic might. A China-led platform would give Pakistan renewed regional relevance, potentially connecting it with Afghanistan, Central Asia, Iran, and smaller South Asian states through corridors like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). More importantly, it would allow Pakistan to escape India's veto on regional initiatives and present itself as a gateway between South Asia, the Middle East, and Eurasia. For China, South Asia has long been India's backyard. But with the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), military outreach, and now possible regional institutions, Beijing is embedding itself into the region's architecture. A China-led SAARC alternative allows Beijing to increase soft power projection, open trade corridors, and potentially reshape the rules of economic and security engagement in Asia. With growing partnerships in Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives, China is positioning itself as an integrator where India is increasingly seen as an abstainer. India's boycott of SAARC in 2016 could be politically understandable; but it was strategically costly. While New Delhi has shifted focus to the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) for economic benefits and to be a part of group of four countries — India, Japan, Australia, Japan and United States—for Asia Pacific security dialogue (QUAD), and bilateral diplomacy, it has effectively abandoned leadership of regional integration. India remains the region's largest economy, but its reluctance to engage in a regional forum with Pakistan has eroded its credibility as a unifying force in South Asia. In contrast, China—despite being an outsider—has built multilateral leverage through connectivity, infrastructure, and diplomacy. New Delhi now faces a dilemma: rejoin the regional table and reclaim its leadership role, or risk seeing its neighbors drift further into China's orbit. India has a choice to be a spoiler or a beneficiary. With two parallel regional visions emerging — one led by India (BIMSTEC and Indo-Pacific frameworks QUAD) and another by China and Pakistan (possibly BRI-aligned) — South Asia risks becoming more divided than ever. For smaller nations, this presents both opportunity and risk. They can leverage competition for development gains, but also face mounting pressure to choose sides. The main challenge in this emerging bifurcation for the region is not just diplomatic; it's economic and social. South Asia, which is home to a quarter of the world's population, remains one of the least integrated regions globally. Its intra-regional trade is a mere fraction of what it could be, while cooperation on energy, migration, climate change, and water resources is minimal. The region must be provided a chance and an enabling environment to prioritize economic pragmatism over bloc politics. It could push for legally binding frameworks that protect sovereignty and prevent debt distress. What South Asia needs is not two rival orders, but a common platform of mutual respect, inclusivity, and economic interdependence. A China-Pakistan-led regional bloc could reshape South Asian cooperation in the post-SAARC era. While it offers opportunities for development and new alignments, it also raises concerns about exclusion, dependency, and geopolitical competition. The region's stability and progress demand a balanced, inclusive, and multipolar framework where all regional countries are one among equals and have freedom to jointly work together and not the replacement of one hegemonic model with another. China must tread carefully. Smaller South Asian countries value development aid but are wary of becoming pawns in great power games. If the new forum is seen as a geopolitical project rather than a cooperative one, regional resistance could rise. South Asia does not need two rival orders; it needs a common platform of mutual respect, inclusivity, and economic interdependence. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
Time of India
30-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
A road less Chinese? India may find a strategic path through Kazakhstan
As China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) continues to expand its influence over global trade infrastructure, India is exploring alternative pathways that reduce reliance on Beijing-led corridors. One such emerging option is the Trans-Caspian Internationalindia-kazakhstan-middle-corridor-TITR-trade-route-alternative-to-china-briTransport Route (TITR), commonly known as the Middle Corridor, with Kazakhstan playing a central role in its development. India has long objected to key BRI components, especially the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which cut through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. The Indian government has consistently raised concerns over CPEC's implications for territorial sovereignty. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Trekking pants for mountain sports and adventure travel Trek Kit India Shop Now Undo Also Read: Kazakhstan, logistics hub of the Eurasia, rises on the world stage In 2024, Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal reiterated India's position in an interview with ANI, 'On PoK, we are very consistent in our position. We want to tell you, the whole of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh, the union territories, they are part of India, an integral part of India. They were an integral part of India. They are an integral part of India and they will remain an integral part of India.' Live Events 'Our position on CPEC also is well known to you. We are not in favour of it. We are against it. It goes against our territorial integrity and sovereignty,' he added. But now, a quieter alternative is gaining traction, and it doesn't start in Beijing. It begins in Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan's Middle Corridor According to The Economic Times, Kazakhstan is emerging as Eurasia's logistics pivot through the Middle Corridor. While India is not directly connected to this network, its rapid expansion presents a vital opportunity for New Delhi to reduce reliance on Chinese-dominated infrastructure and diversify its trade routes. The Middle Corridor spans over 4,250 km of rail and 500 km of seaway, connecting China, Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the Caucasus, and Europe, bypassing both Russian and Chinese bottlenecks. As per Indian think tank Observer Research Foundation, the corridor was born out of geopolitical necessity following Russia's 2014 Crimea annexation, when Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Georgia sought to hedge against dependence on unstable or adversarial routes. In 2017, the launch of the 826-km Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway cemented the route's viability, allowing transit from China to Turkey in 12 days, and to Prague in 18. Kazakhstan's Transport Ministry reported that in 2024, traffic on TITR surged by 62%, reaching 4.5 million tonnes. Container transport grew by 170% to 56,500 TEUs, with 35,600 TEUs moved along the China-Europe leg, 27 times more than the previous year. The 2025 target is 5.2 million tonnes and 70,000 TEUs. But these numbers are just one part of the story. TITR's real significance lies in the infrastructure push that's coming, data suggests. As The Economic Times reported, Kazakhstan is investing massively in its logistics network. In 2025 alone, it plans to modernise 13,000 km of roads and 6,100 km of railways, expand six airports, and build new maritime terminals, including a container hub in Aktau with a capacity of 240,000 TEUs. By 2029, another 11,000 km of rail lines will be upgraded, and new corridors like 'North' and 'Sedmiddle' are in the works. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, speaking at the Foreign Investors' Council plenary on June 24 (as per Akorda, the official website of the Kazakh Presidency), described Kazakhstan's economic strategy as future-ready, sustainable, and globally integrated. The country reported a 6% GDP growth in the first half of 2025, driven by logistics, trade, and construction. This is the fastest in 12 years. In an interview with Al Jazeera, Tokayev projected GDP growth of at least 5.5% for 2025, but added that this was 'not such an ambitious outcome,' as the government seeks additional growth engines. Why TITR matters for India Although India is not directly linked to the Middle Corridor, several geopolitical and economic factors could make TITR relevant to Indian interests. As per rating agency ICRA, India relies heavily on maritime trade via the Suez Canal, a route that has become vulnerable due to Red Sea instability and Houthi attacks. 'The recent escalation of the conflict in the Red Sea has resulted in a 122% increase in freight cost in the past couple of months. As a result, the majority of global container shipping companies are deciding to avoid the Suez Canal and instead take the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope,' ICRA noted. According to the World Bank, 95% of India's foreign trade by volume and 67% by value is seaborne. The Suez route is crucial for trade with Europe, North Africa, and the Americas, regions accounting for over 35% of India's total foreign trade. The TITR offers a land-sea multimodal alternative that could ease maritime congestion, reduce freight costs, and benefit Indian exporters, particularly those targeting European markets. More importantly, TITR intersects with India's International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a 7,200-km network linking Mumbai to Europe via Iran and Russia. While TITR and INSTC are separate, they share geographic nodes in the Caspian Sea and Caucasus, especially Azerbaijan. This overlap allows for synergy: Indian goods could travel via INSTC and switch to TITR segments to access Central Asia, Turkey, and Europe. Despite delays in INSTC, caused partly by sanctions on Iran and slow progress on the Chabahar-Zahedan railway, its relevance has only grown. According to ORF, INSTC, initially proposed in 2000, has been ratified by 13 countries and comprises road, rail, and sea links. Its Eastern Route, or KTI Corridor, runs through Iran, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan, connecting Russia's Finnish border to Iran's Bandar Abbas port. reports that Russia and Iran are now fast-tracking key INSTC links like the Rasht-Astara railway, expected to be completed by 2027. The convergence of INSTC and TITR could thus form a formidable trans-Eurasian grid, one that reduces India's reliance on China or the Suez Canal. Strategic autonomy: Beyond BRI India's objections to the BRI, especially CPEC, are rooted in sovereignty concerns. More broadly, New Delhi remains wary of BRI's debt-driven model and China's centralised control over participating nations. TITR stands apart. It is not dominated by any one country, and is increasingly backed by Western actors, including the EU, Turkey, and Georgia. In 2024, Kazakhstan hosted its first working group meeting with China on TITR freight movement. As per the Kazakh Ministry of Transport, both countries agreed to increase container traffic on the China-Europe route to 600 trains annually by 2025–26, and up to 3,000 trains by 2029. While China remains a partner, the corridor's multinational nature limits any single country's dominance. India's own connectivity vision, such as the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is aligned with this trend. Despite recent Middle East tensions slowing IMEC's momentum, a senior MEA official during the 2023 G20 Summit said that the project remains a priority, reported The Hindu. If TITR, INSTC, and IMEC develop in tandem, they could collectively serve as a resilient alternative to the BRI, multiplying India's strategic choices and reducing its vulnerability to chokepoints. Diplomacy in the Caspian Kazakhstan's reform-driven model further strengthens the case for deeper India-Caspian ties. According to the country's state news agency, President Tokayev has introduced a 'prosecutorial filter' to protect foreign investors and launched a National Digital Investment Platform. So far, 137 projects worth $70 billion have been facilitated, and 140 legal amendments initiated. For India, closer diplomatic and economic ties with Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Georgia can help secure energy supplies, mineral access and geopolitical balance in a region of growing global relevance. India need not formally join TITR to benefit from it. What matters is that Kazakhstan's logistics vision, and the Middle Corridor it anchors, adds redundancy to the global trade architecture. The more corridors exist, the less India and others would need to depend on those dominated by strategic rivals.
CNBC
26-06-2025
- Business
- CNBC
China urges Beijing-backed development bank to focus more on Belt and Road Initiative
BEIJING — Chinese Premier Li Qiang on Thursday urged the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank to increase its support for Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative. "I hope that the AIIB will stay committed to open regionalism and persevere in promoting connection and communication among Asian countries and countries across the world," Li said in Mandarin through an official English translation. "It is important to strengthen the synergy between the bank and the Belt and Road Initiative and Global Development Initiative," Li said, referring to two Beijing-led programs. His speech at the opening ceremony of the bank's 10th annual meeting comes amid a pullback of U.S. support for Western-led institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, which U.S. President Donald Trump claims unfairly benefit other nations. Premier Li's "comments signal China's ongoing attempts to capitalize on the chaos caused by Trump's trade and economic policies," said Stephen Olson, a visiting senior fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies and a former U.S. trade negotiator. "China is also very aware that the U.S. is trying to pressure countries to tilt away from China (as we saw in the U.K. trade deal) and this is part of its strategy to counteract those efforts," Olson said in an email. Under Chinese President Xi Jinping, now in his third term, China launched a regional development program called the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013. The program is widely viewed as Beijing's effort to boost its global influence through the development of rail, sea and other transportation routes connecting Asia to Europe and Africa. Critics argue that China's massive infrastructure project has forced developing nations to take on high debt while benefiting Chinese companies, often state-owned entities. Xi subsequently announced a broader "Global Development Initiative" in 2021 to promote Beijing-led efforts around poverty alleviation, public health and food security, aligned with the UN's 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. The AIIB this week announced that Zou Jiayi, a former Chinese vice finance minister, will become its next president starting in January. Zou also previously represented China as an alternate governor at the World Bank. The former anti-corruption official is also a member of the ruling Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee, the third-highest circle of power in the country. AIIB's current president, Jin Liqun, has served two five-year terms since the bank's founding and is also a former Chinese vice finance minister. Indonesia's finance minister, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, said in a closing speech at the same event on Thursday that the Southeast Asian nation, which is a founding member of AIIB, has worked with the bank on 14 projects totaling over $5.1 billion. "Indonesia is not only generating operating revenue for AIIB, but we [are] also providing enormous experience as well as strong participation," Indrawati said. "AIIB is no longer just an emerging bank. It is now a global force for development." While the U.S. isn't a member of AIIB, the U.K., France, Germany are listed among the 110 members of the China-led bank, as are Russia, Israel, Singapore and Vietnam. China has the largest stake in AIIB, holding a 26.5% voting share. The AIIB provides loans to developing countries, largely for infrastructure projects such as water supply and transportation. The Beijing-headquartered AIIB said it approved $8.4 billion in financing last year, bringing the total to over $60 billion since its launch in 2016. On Wednesday, Li urged global business leaders and senior government representatives to collaborate and avoid turning trade into a political or security issue. Engaging in the international economy is a way of "reshaping the rules and order," he said, via an official English translation. He was speaking at the World Economic Forum's annual China conference, dubbed "Summer Davos," held this year in Tianjin. Li subsequently met with business executives, including Founder and Chairman Richard Liu. China's Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao and Zheng Shanjie, head of the country's economic planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, attended Li's speech and meeting with businesses on Wednesday, according to state media.
American Military News
16-05-2025
- Business
- American Military News
Trump to keep 30% China tariffs through late 2025, analysts say
Donald Trump's tariffs on China will likely remain at a level expected to severely curtail Chinese exports to the U.S. after the 90-day truce, analysts and investors say, suggesting Beijing may have to endure further economic pain despite active talks. U.S. levies on Chinese products imposed this year will likely hold at 30% through late 2025, according to a Bloomberg survey. While much lower than before the thaw this week, the current rate is high enough to wipe out 70% of Chinese shipments to the world's largest economy in the medium term, Bloomberg Economics has projected. The results of the survey, conducted Wednesday and Thursday with 22 respondents, reveal a low expectation for trade negotiation to quickly undo duties Trump imposed on China during his second term. Official data due Monday are forecast to show a slowdown in China's industrial output in April as tariff threats weighed on exports, according to a separate survey. 'We expect that trade negotiations to end up in shallow surface level deals,' said Kelly Chen, an economist with DNB Bank. 'There is not enough time for the relative positions of U.S. and China to change materially enough' before the 2026 U.S. mid-term election that will serve as a potential deadline for a deal, she said. Highlighting the uncertainty over the countries' ability to resolve their conflict, expectations become more divided further out into the future, with seven respondents seeing tariffs dip below 30% in six months' time while six projecting higher levies. If the U.S. and China reach a final trade agreement, the tariffs could come down to 20%, according to the median forecast. Respondents overwhelmingly predict that tariffs from Trump's first term will remain, as lowering them would be a major concession that may anger his base. Those levies average about 12%, according to estimates by Bloomberg Economics. Trump's tariff policy on Chinese goods is one of the biggest variables affecting the global economy and markets this year. Chinese assets will likely trade in a narrow range near current levels through year-end under the cloud of tariff and stimulus uncertainties, respondents said. By the end of 2025, the yuan is forecast to hold near 7.2 per dollar, the median estimate from 17 participants showed. With speculation about a Beijing-led devaluation easing, the currency may find an anchor as authorities are expected to prevent rapid capital outflows or excessive inflows. 'Good news on tariffs is also likely to tone down Chinese policy easing, suggesting a more limited upside,' said Robert Gilhooly, senior EM economist at Aberdeen Investments, who expects tariffs to settle at around 50%. 'As damage is revealed and the economy slows we expect the authorities will eventually condone an FX depreciation.' Mainland stocks may grind higher, with the CSI 300 Index potentially reaching 4000, a roughly 2% gain from Thursday's close near 3900. Early export shipments seeking to avoid tariffs could boost corporate earnings, while tech advances and structural economic shifts are also seen lending support. Chinese 10-year government bond yields may face hurdles to decline further, with the median estimate at 1.7% for this year. That would be little changed from current levels, as markets see limited impetus for a rapid fall in yields due to fading hopes for imminent policy easing. Official statistics scheduled to be released Monday morning will likely show industrial output expanded 5.9% in April from a year ago, slowing from the 7.7% gain in March, according to a regular survey of economists. Exports expansion moderated in the month, and factory activity also weakened. Retail sales likely grew at a brisk 6% in April, a slight pickup from March. Fixed-asset investment growth is forecast to hold steady at 4.3%, edging up from the prior month. Several of the respondents in the tariff survey cautioned against forecasting in the first place, given the unpredictability of Trump's tariff moves. 'Trump's first term should serve as a warning that we are not yet out of the woods and agreements are not guaranteed to hold,' said Sam Jochim, an economist at EFG Asset Management. 'Risks due to elevated uncertainty over the U.S.'s trade policy remains high.' ___ © 2025 Bloomberg L.P. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.
Yahoo
16-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump to Keep 30% China Tariffs Till Late 2025, Analysts Say
(Bloomberg) -- Donald Trump's tariffs on China will likely remain at a level expected to severely curtail Chinese exports to the US after the 90-day truce, analysts and investors say, suggesting Beijing may have to endure further economic pain despite active talks. As Coastline Erodes, One California City Considers 'Retreat Now' How a Highway Became San Francisco's Newest Park Maryland's Credit Rating Gets Downgraded as Governor Blames Trump Power-Hungry Data Centers Are Warming Homes in the Nordics NYC Commuters Brace for Chaos as NJ Transit Strike Looms US levies on Chinese products imposed this year will likely hold at 30% through late 2025, according to a Bloomberg survey that had 22 respondents from a mix of Asian, European and US fund managers, banks and research firms. While much lower than before the thaw this week, the current rate is high enough to wipe out 70% of Chinese shipments to the world's largest economy in the medium term, Bloomberg Economics has projected. The results of the survey, conducted Wednesday and Thursday, reveal a low expectation for trade negotiation to quickly undo duties Trump imposed on China during his second term. Official data due Monday are forecast to show a slowdown in China's industrial output in April as tariff threats weighed on exports, according to a separate survey. 'We expect that trade negotiations to end up in shallow surface level deals,' said Kelly Chen, an economist with DNB Bank. 'There is not enough time for the relative positions of US and China to change materially enough' before the 2026 US mid-term election that will serve as a potential deadline for a deal, she said. Highlighting the uncertainty over the countries' ability to resolve their conflict, expectations become more divided further out into the future, with seven respondents seeing tariffs dip below 30% in six months' time while six projecting higher levies. If the US and China reach a final trade agreement, the tariffs could come down to 20%, according to the median forecast. The 90-day truce started on Wednesday, when China and the US began temporarily lowering their tariffs on each other's goods. Respondents overwhelmingly predict that tariffs from Trump's first term will remain, as lowering them would be a major concession that may anger his base. Those levies average about 12%, according to estimates by Bloomberg Economics. Trump's tariff policy on Chinese goods is one of the biggest variables affecting the global economy and markets this year. Chinese assets will likely trade in a narrow range near current levels through year-end under the cloud of tariff and stimulus uncertainties, respondents said. By the end of 2025, the yuan is forecast to hold near 7.2 per dollar, the median estimate from 17 participants showed. With speculation about a Beijing-led devaluation easing, the currency may find an anchor as authorities are expected to prevent rapid capital outflows or excessive inflows. 'Good news on tariffs is also likely to tone down Chinese policy easing, suggesting a more limited upside,' said Robert Gilhooly, senior EM economist at Aberdeen Investments, who expects tariffs to settle at around 50%. 'As damage is revealed and the economy slows we expect the authorities will eventually condone an FX depreciation.' Mainland stocks may grind higher, with the CSI 300 Index potentially reaching 4000, a roughly 2% gain from Thursday's close near 3900. Early export shipments seeking to avoid tariffs could boost corporate earnings, while tech advances and structural economic shifts are also seen lending support. Chinese 10-year government bond yields may face hurdles to decline further, with the median estimate at 1.7% for this year. That would be little changed from current levels, as markets see limited impetus for a rapid fall in yields due to fading hopes for imminent policy easing. Official statistics scheduled to be released Monday morning will likely show industrial output expanded 5.9% in April from a year ago, slowing from the 7.7% gain in March, according to a regular survey of economists. Exports expansion moderated in the month, and factory activity also weakened. Retail sales likely grew at a brisk 6% in April, a slight pickup from March. Fixed-asset investment growth is forecast to hold steady at 4.3%, edging up from the prior month. What Bloomberg Economics Says.... 'The impact of US tariffs is likely to show up in China's activity data for April — before the two sides reached a temporary deal to reduce levies and negotiate. The initial blow looks severe and will register most clearly in industrial output as manufacturers responded to a plunge in exports to the US. Sales of trade-related services suffered too.' — Chang Shu and David Qu Click here to read the full report. Several of the respondents in the tariff survey cautioned against forecasting in the first place, given the unpredictability of Trump's tariff moves. 'Trump's first term should serve as a warning that we are not yet out of the woods and agreements are not guaranteed to hold,' said Sam Jochim, an economist at EFG Asset Management. 'Risks due to elevated uncertainty over the US's trade policy remain high.' --With assistance from Ran Li, Qizi Sun, Jing Zhao and Shulun Huang. (Updates throughout.) Cartoon Network's Last Gasp DeepSeek's 'Tech Madman' Founder Is Threatening US Dominance in AI Race As Nuclear Power Makes a Comeback, South Korea Emerges a Winner Why Obesity Drugs Are Getting Cheaper — and Also More Expensive Tariffs Won't Reindustrialize America. Here's What Will ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. 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