Revival of SAARC: new regional order
China and Pakistan are exploring a Beijing-led regional alternative to revitalize cooperation in South Asia. This development could redefine regional power dynamics, marginalize India's influence, and establish parallel regional orders. While this initiative opens new economic and diplomatic opportunities for smaller South Asian nations, it also introduces risks of regional fragmentation and geo-strategic rivalry.
This brief outlines the key motivations, implications, and strategic options for the main stakeholders—Pakistan, China, India, and smaller regional states. Pakistan sees opportunity in SAARC where India sees stalemate as its advantage. With SAARC in paralysis and India preoccupied with bilateralism and Indo-Pacific strategic partnerships, Islamabad is stepping into the regional vacuum—backed by China's economic and diplomatic might.
A China-led platform would give Pakistan renewed regional relevance, potentially connecting it with Afghanistan, Central Asia, Iran, and smaller South Asian states through corridors like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). More importantly, it would allow Pakistan to escape India's veto on regional initiatives and present itself as a gateway between South Asia, the Middle East, and Eurasia.
For China, South Asia has long been India's backyard. But with the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), military outreach, and now possible regional institutions, Beijing is embedding itself into the region's architecture. A China-led SAARC alternative allows Beijing to increase soft power projection, open trade corridors, and potentially reshape the rules of economic and security engagement in Asia. With growing partnerships in Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives, China is positioning itself as an integrator where India is increasingly seen as an abstainer.
India's boycott of SAARC in 2016 could be politically understandable; but it was strategically costly. While New Delhi has shifted focus to the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) for economic benefits and to be a part of group of four countries — India, Japan, Australia, Japan and United States—for Asia Pacific security dialogue (QUAD), and bilateral diplomacy, it has effectively abandoned leadership of regional integration.
India remains the region's largest economy, but its reluctance to engage in a regional forum with Pakistan has eroded its credibility as a unifying force in South Asia. In contrast, China—despite being an outsider—has built multilateral leverage through connectivity, infrastructure, and diplomacy. New Delhi now faces a dilemma: rejoin the regional table and reclaim its leadership role, or risk seeing its neighbors drift further into China's orbit. India has a choice to be a spoiler or a beneficiary.
With two parallel regional visions emerging — one led by India (BIMSTEC and Indo-Pacific frameworks QUAD) and another by China and Pakistan (possibly BRI-aligned) — South Asia risks becoming more divided than ever. For smaller nations, this presents both opportunity and risk. They can leverage competition for development gains, but also face mounting pressure to choose sides.
The main challenge in this emerging bifurcation for the region is not just diplomatic; it's economic and social. South Asia, which is home to a quarter of the world's population, remains one of the least integrated regions globally. Its intra-regional trade is a mere fraction of what it could be, while cooperation on energy, migration, climate change, and water resources is minimal.
The region must be provided a chance and an enabling environment to prioritize economic pragmatism over bloc politics. It could push for legally binding frameworks that protect sovereignty and prevent debt distress. What South Asia needs is not two rival orders, but a common platform of mutual respect, inclusivity, and economic interdependence.
A China-Pakistan-led regional bloc could reshape South Asian cooperation in the post-SAARC era. While it offers opportunities for development and new alignments, it also raises concerns about exclusion, dependency, and geopolitical competition. The region's stability and progress demand a balanced, inclusive, and multipolar framework where all regional countries are one among equals and have freedom to jointly work together and not the replacement of one hegemonic model with another.
China must tread carefully. Smaller South Asian countries value development aid but are wary of becoming pawns in great power games. If the new forum is seen as a geopolitical project rather than a cooperative one, regional resistance could rise. South Asia does not need two rival orders; it needs a common platform of mutual respect, inclusivity, and economic interdependence.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
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