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The Wire
03-07-2025
- Politics
- The Wire
EC's Directive to Update Voter Lists in Bihar Risks Mass Exclusion. Here's Why
Pavan Korada 2 minutes ago By focusing on documents like the 10th-grade matriculation certificate as proof, the ECI risks penalising people for the very poverty and lack of education they have long endured. A voter gives his thumb impression at a polling booth before casting his vote for the first phase of Bihar Assembly Election, amid the coronavirus pandemic, at Chenari police station in Rohtas district, Wednesday, October 28, 2020. Photo: PTI New Delhi: A new directive from the Election Commission of India (ECI) to update voter lists in the state of Bihar has raised fears of mass exclusion. The move requires crores of voters to prove their eligibility, but analysis suggests the required documents are often unavailable to the state's poorest and most marginalised communities. According to research by analyst Rahul Shastri, the rule effectively demands that 4.74 crore people – nearly 60% of Bihar's electorate – prove their eligibility. The main problem lies with the type of proof required. By focusing on documents like the 10th-grade matriculation certificate, the ECI risks penalising people for the very poverty and lack of education they have long endured. An analysis of government data reveals a threefold problem based on geography, demography, and the state's own administrative history. Table: Document Availability for Bihar's Adult Population The data is clear. With the most common documents like Aadhaar and Ration Cards not on the list, the burden of proof falls on scarce certificates. Geography of exclusion The focus on the matriculation certificate creates the first problem. Shastri's analysis estimates that between 2.4 and 2.6 crore people in the 18-40 age group may not have this document. Official literacy and poverty data show this burden will fall most heavily on a distinct belt of deprived districts. Female literacy rates are a strong indicator of these vulnerable areas. The 2011 census recorded Bihar's female literacy at just over 53%, a full 20 percentage points behind the male rate. The districts with the lowest overall literacy in 2011 are a map of this vulnerability: Purnia (52.5%), Sitamarhi (53.5%) and Katihar (53.6%). These areas of educational deprivation align almost perfectly with the map of multidimensional poverty shown above. Chart: Lowest Literacy Districts Impact on caste and religion The data shows the rule is not just geographic in its impact, but also demographic. It is most likely to affect Bihar's historically marginalised social groups: Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), Scheduled Castes (SCs), and the state's large Muslim minority. Chart: Poverty by Social Group The 2022 Bihar Caste Survey shows the educational gap. While nearly 14% of the General category population are graduates, the figure falls to just under 8% for EBCs and below 6% for SCs. The Muslim population's graduation rate is also a low 7.6%. Chart: Graduation Gap by Social Group Chart: Pregnancy Registration by Religion Lack of birth certificates For the many without a school certificate, the birth certificate is the only other option. In reality, it is a rare document in Bihar. The NFHS-5 (2019-21) found that only 56% of children under five have a birth certificate, and only 75% of births were even registered. This raises a critical question: if the state fails to register a majority of births today, how can it expect older citizens to produce documents that were often unavailable to them in the past? So, the ECI's verification drive in Bihar is based on a set of documents that a large part of the population does not possess. Analysis shows this creates a clear pattern of exclusion, affecting the state's poorest districts, its marginalised castes, and its Muslim minority. Critics and analysts argue that without expanding the list of accepted documents to include widely-held IDs like Aadhaar and ration cards, the exercise risks preventing crores of eligible citizens from voting. The Wire is now on WhatsApp. Follow our channel for sharp analysis and opinions on the latest developments.
Indian Express
27-06-2025
- Politics
- Indian Express
From Chirag Paswan to Prashant Kishor: Why smaller parties could be a game changer in Bihar
Smaller and minor political parties play a crucial role — often underappreciated — in competitive and volatile electoral democracies. These parties contribute to political pluralism, deepen representative democracy and mediate between region-specific interests and the national polity. Although they are more effective in proportional representation electoral systems, they are also important stakeholders in the first-past-the-post system (FPTP). Modest or marginal vote shares by smaller parties can influence the results by splitting votes, acting as spoilers, or becoming coalition partners. Much like in European politics, smaller parties shape electoral alliances, influence bargaining dynamics through negotiation and consensus-building. In doing this, democracies resemble what political scientist Arend Lijphart termed 'consociational' systems – power-sharing arrangements particularly suited to ethnically and socially divided societies. India is no exception. Its regional and minor parties have consistently reflected layered social, political and party cleavages in both state and national elections, especially since 1991. As Bihar inches towards the assembly election, the significant role of the smaller regional parties needs to be examined. One of the reasons the 2020 assembly elections in Bihar went down to the wire was the strong showing by smaller and state-specific parties. 11 seats were decided by under a thousand votes, and 26 seats by margins between 1 per cent and 2.5 per cent, including the victory of JD (U)'s Krishna Murari Sharan (Prem Mukhiya), who won the Hilsa assembly constituency just by 12 votes, the narrowest margin in Bihar's history for at least 14 elections. While the primary contest was between the NDA led by the BJP and JD(U), and the Mahagathbandhan led by RJD, Congress and the Left, several smaller parties such as Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular), Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (Upendra Kushwaha), the Jan Adhikar Party (Pappu Yadav), AIMIM contested in the constituencies where their caste or community have formidable influence. Despite their seat tallies being modest, they widened the contest and splintered traditional vote banks. Given the widely dispersed social cleavages as reflected in the Bihar Caste Survey, the 2025 elections are going to be intensely competitive and hyper-local. Among the smaller political outfits, the LJP (Ram Vilas) led by Chirag Paswan is fast emerging as a pivotal force, especially after its impressive performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. As an aspirational Dalit leader, Chirag Paswan commands political influence among Paswan Dalit communities – they comprise 5.31 per cent of the state's population — in constituencies like Vaishali, Jamui, Khagaria, Samastipur, and Begusarai. His growing popularity with the slogan 'Bihar First, Bihari First' and his attempt to galvanise a broad social coalition could decisively boost NDA prospects. Also, the HAM (Secular) under Union Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi, a Dalit grassroots leader, remains a significant political asset for the NDA despite its modest 0.87 per cent vote share in 2020. Its influence among Musahar Dalits, who comprise 3.08 per cent of the population, and other Extremely Backwards Castes (EBC) in Gaya, Aurangabad, Jehanabad, and Nawada means a handful of seats won by HAM(S) could prove decisive in close contests. Similarly, the VIP led by Nishad caste leader Mukesh Sahni continues to be a notable player. As a crucial constituent of the EBC bloc (36.1 per cent), the Mallaahs (2.61 per cent) represent an important political force in riverine constituencies across Darbhanga, Muzaffarpur, Samastipur, Sitamarhi and Madhubani. Sahni's narrative, centred on empowering Mallah Samaj (comprising Nishad, Kevat and related castes) and his realignment with the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan, makes him significant. However, the most intriguing development is the emergence of celebrity political strategist Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraj Party (JSP). In the 2024 by-poll debut, it secured nearly 10 per cent of votes across four constituencies, with Jitendra Paswan polling 20 per cent in Imamganj constituency. Beyond the ambit of prevalent identity politics, and solely focusing on governance, JSP's statewide 'Bihar Badlav Yatra' seems to have amplified its grassroots reach. While it lacks the momentum and resources to upend Bihar's political order like AAP did in Delhi, rural disaffection and youth grievances against both alliances could shape its political future. On the other side, the AIMIM, regionally led by Akhtarul Iman, made an entry into Bihar politics in 2020 by winning five of the 20 seats it contested, mostly in the Muslim-majority Seemanchal region. With a 1.24 per cent vote share, AIMIM has built influence in Kishanganj, Araria, Purina, and Katihar, directly challenging RJD vis-a-vis Muslim voters. Despite the BJP's campaign against 'infiltrators', it might impact the Mahagathbandhan's base. Other smaller parties like the Jan Adhikar Party (Loktantrik) headed by Rajesh Ranjan alias Pappu Yadav, an independent Yadav politician, retain a modest presence in districts like Purnia, Madhepura, Supaul, Araria and Parts of Katihar and Kishanganj. Similarly, Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) under veteran leader Upendra Kushwaha continues to wield influence among Kushwaha/Koeri voters (4.27 per cent of the state's population) in Karakat, Buxar, Nalanda and Jehanabad, making him a major ally of NDA. In this hyper-local electoral scenario in Bihar, unless it swings like Maharashtra, a few thousand decisive votes in multi-cornered contests can turn minor players into a post-poll kingmaker. Though BJP, RJD and JD(U) remain formidable players in the game, collectively, these smaller parties, including the CP1(ML), CPI, and CPM, representing significant Dalit, OBC, EBC and minority blocs, will likely determine the composition of Bihar's consociational, coalition-driven government formation. Ashwani Kumar is a professor at Tata Institute of Social Sciences and author of Community Warriors: State, Peasants, and Caste Armies in Bihar. Views are personal
