From Chirag Paswan to Prashant Kishor: Why smaller parties could be a game changer in Bihar

Indian Express

2 days ago

Smaller and minor political parties play a crucial role — often underappreciated — in competitive and volatile electoral democracies. These parties contribute to political pluralism, deepen representative democracy and mediate between region-specific interests and the national polity. Although they are more effective in proportional representation electoral systems, they are also important stakeholders in the first-past-the-post system (FPTP). Modest or marginal vote shares by smaller parties can influence the results by splitting votes, acting as spoilers, or becoming coalition partners.
Much like in European politics, smaller parties shape electoral alliances, influence bargaining dynamics through negotiation and consensus-building. In doing this, democracies resemble what political scientist Arend Lijphart termed 'consociational' systems – power-sharing arrangements particularly suited to ethnically and socially divided societies. India is no exception. Its regional and minor parties have consistently reflected layered social, political and party cleavages in both state and national elections, especially since 1991. As Bihar inches towards the assembly election, the significant role of the smaller regional parties needs to be examined.
One of the reasons the 2020 assembly elections in Bihar went down to the wire was the strong showing by smaller and state-specific parties. 11 seats were decided by under a thousand votes, and 26 seats by margins between 1 per cent and 2.5 per cent, including the victory of JD (U)'s Krishna Murari Sharan (Prem Mukhiya), who won the Hilsa assembly constituency just by 12 votes, the narrowest margin in Bihar's history for at least 14 elections.
While the primary contest was between the NDA led by the BJP and JD(U), and the Mahagathbandhan led by RJD, Congress and the Left, several smaller parties such as Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular), Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (Upendra Kushwaha), the Jan Adhikar Party (Pappu Yadav), AIMIM contested in the constituencies where their caste or community have formidable influence. Despite their seat tallies being modest, they widened the contest and splintered traditional vote banks. Given the widely dispersed social cleavages as reflected in the Bihar Caste Survey, the 2025 elections are going to be intensely competitive and hyper-local.
Among the smaller political outfits, the LJP (Ram Vilas) led by Chirag Paswan is fast emerging as a pivotal force, especially after its impressive performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. As an aspirational Dalit leader, Chirag Paswan commands political influence among Paswan Dalit communities – they comprise 5.31 per cent of the state's population — in constituencies like Vaishali, Jamui, Khagaria, Samastipur, and Begusarai. His growing popularity with the slogan 'Bihar First, Bihari First' and his attempt to galvanise a broad social coalition could decisively boost NDA prospects. Also, the HAM (Secular) under Union Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi, a Dalit grassroots leader, remains a significant political asset for the NDA despite its modest 0.87 per cent vote share in 2020. Its influence among Musahar Dalits, who comprise 3.08 per cent of the population, and other Extremely Backwards Castes (EBC) in Gaya, Aurangabad, Jehanabad, and Nawada means a handful of seats won by HAM(S) could prove decisive in close contests.
Similarly, the VIP led by Nishad caste leader Mukesh Sahni continues to be a notable player. As a crucial constituent of the EBC bloc (36.1 per cent), the Mallaahs (2.61 per cent) represent an important political force in riverine constituencies across Darbhanga, Muzaffarpur, Samastipur, Sitamarhi and Madhubani. Sahni's narrative, centred on empowering Mallah Samaj (comprising Nishad, Kevat and related castes) and his realignment with the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan, makes him significant.
However, the most intriguing development is the emergence of celebrity political strategist Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraj Party (JSP). In the 2024 by-poll debut, it secured nearly 10 per cent of votes across four constituencies, with Jitendra Paswan polling 20 per cent in Imamganj constituency. Beyond the ambit of prevalent identity politics, and solely focusing on governance, JSP's statewide 'Bihar Badlav Yatra' seems to have amplified its grassroots reach. While it lacks the momentum and resources to upend Bihar's political order like AAP did in Delhi, rural disaffection and youth grievances against both alliances could shape its political future.
On the other side, the AIMIM, regionally led by Akhtarul Iman, made an entry into Bihar politics in 2020 by winning five of the 20 seats it contested, mostly in the Muslim-majority Seemanchal region. With a 1.24 per cent vote share, AIMIM has built influence in Kishanganj, Araria, Purina, and Katihar, directly challenging RJD vis-a-vis Muslim voters. Despite the BJP's campaign against 'infiltrators', it might impact the Mahagathbandhan's base.
Other smaller parties like the Jan Adhikar Party (Loktantrik) headed by Rajesh Ranjan alias Pappu Yadav, an independent Yadav politician, retain a modest presence in districts like Purnia, Madhepura, Supaul, Araria and Parts of Katihar and Kishanganj. Similarly, Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) under veteran leader Upendra Kushwaha continues to wield influence among Kushwaha/Koeri voters (4.27 per cent of the state's population) in Karakat, Buxar, Nalanda and Jehanabad, making him a major ally of NDA.
In this hyper-local electoral scenario in Bihar, unless it swings like Maharashtra, a few thousand decisive votes in multi-cornered contests can turn minor players into a post-poll kingmaker. Though BJP, RJD and JD(U) remain formidable players in the game, collectively, these smaller parties, including the CP1(ML), CPI, and CPM, representing significant Dalit, OBC, EBC and minority blocs, will likely determine the composition of Bihar's consociational, coalition-driven government formation.
Ashwani Kumar is a professor at Tata Institute of Social Sciences and author of Community Warriors: State, Peasants, and Caste Armies in Bihar. Views are personal