Latest news with #Botterill
Global News
07-07-2025
- Business
- Global News
Alberta natural gas expected to see jump in prices next year thanks to LNG exports: report
A new report from advisory firm Deloitte is forecasting a big jump in Alberta natural gas prices next year, with the country's first West Coast export facility now up and running. The Alberta benchmark AECO price is expected to average $2.20 per mmBTU in the second half of this year and then rise to an average of $3.50 per mmBTU in 2026. It averaged $1.36 per mmBTU last year. By the end of the forecast in 2032, the average AECO price is expected to hit $4 per mmBTU. Alberta producers now have an outlet for their gas to markets beyond the United States with LNG Canada shipping its first cargo of ultra-chilled gas across the Pacific to Asia from Kitimat, B.C., last week. Story continues below advertisement Deloitte partner Andrew Botterill says that will give producers the confidence they need to invest in new drilling, while consumers who use natural gas to heat their homes can expect to see their bills go up. Get daily National news Get the day's top news, political, economic, and current affairs headlines, delivered to your inbox once a day. Sign up for daily National newsletter Sign Up By providing your email address, you have read and agree to Global News' Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy 'It's really an opportunity for producers to get to get volumes into another sales point, which dramatically changes things,' he said. For many years, Albertans have enjoyed relatively cheap natural gas. 'Things do look stronger now than they have in the past, but we're also right in the middle of the summer when the natural gas pricing is at its low,' he said. 'Through the remainder of this year and into next year, our natural gas price is going to be higher and it's going to cost more to put through our furnaces.' 1:46 Poll shows Canada is most desirable oil and natural gas-supplying country Based on current levels of drilling and capital spending, Deloitte predicts Canadian producers will not fill demand from current LNG export projects operating or in the works for four two seven years, meaning Alberta pricing should remain strong for the foreseeable future. Story continues below advertisement For oil, Deloitte is predicting West Texas Intermediate, the main U.S. crude benchmark, to average US$72 a barrel in the second half of this year, dipping to US$67.30 next year and rising to US$74.65 by 2032. Botterill said Canadian companies can manage that price range well, especially since they benefit from a strong U.S. dollar. The price discount for western Canadian heavy crude has also narrowed thanks to the startup last year of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion to the Vancouver area, through which meaningful volumes can be sold in Asia. 'While the price isn't as robust … Canadian companies are managing quite well, but they're being cautious on where they deploy capital and not spending too much too quickly.'
Calgary Herald
07-07-2025
- Business
- Calgary Herald
Silver lining: Alberta natural gas — and budget — get boost with historic LNG ocean shipment
Article content If LNG prices are the silver lining of non-renewables, the light clouds could be gas prices — and the shadow comes from U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs. Article content 'Overall, the oil market is good, not great,' Botterill said. Article content OPEC+ has reversed voluntary production cuts, announcing consecutive monthly production increases since April. Article content 'This strategy aims to capture greater market share from non-OPEC producers amidst a volatile global trade environment influenced by U.S. tariffs,' the Deloitte & Touche report found. Article content The Energy Information Administration expects oil production growth in 2025 will surpass annual demand growth, posing a risk of oversupply. Article content Article content 'We are in a little bit of an oversupply place right now around the globe, meaning that I think we're probably going to see OPEC probably stay the line and stay the course, because I think they'd much rather see higher prices than flooding the market,' Botterill said. Article content 'Obviously, with some of the conflicts going on right now, there's big supply chain issues and cargoes not being able to move directions we'd like to move them due to foreign conflicts, so we may see some problems on that.' Article content Overall, in the Canadian market, the discount on Western Canadian Select (WCS) to WTI settlement prices has narrowed with markedly low fluctuation, to around US$10 in the past quarter, achieving one of the lowest quarterly averages observed for this differential in recent years, the Deloitte & Touche report found. Article content Much of the credit goes to the 2024 twinning of the Trans Mountain Pipeline from Edmonton to Burnaby, B.C. and Washington state, with a 'batching' process allowing different petroleum products—and more than twice as much of it—to move through the pipeline in sequence. Article content Article content 'This suggests that the TMX, which was completed last year to enable pipeline egress for heavy crude from Western Canada, is the main factor sustaining the narrow differential and appears to have fundamentally affected the Canadian oil market on whole,' the report found. Article content 'What has been great about the Trans Mountain Pipeline extension is having that those extra seaborne volumes going out into Asia have strengthened Canadian received prices. It kind of proves the case that, hey, if we have more markets that we can get to, people have to compete for our volumes, right?' Botterill said. Article content In Q3 2025, Canadian oil differentials may tighten further as wildfires across Alberta have contributed to the shut-in of 7 per cent of Canada's production, according to Reuters estimates. Article content The Alberta government saw the 2024-25 fiscal year ending March 31 with a healthy bottom line, with a $4.7 billion injection from non-renewable resource revenue and record-high production, as well as the opening of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion in May 2024.
Ottawa Citizen
07-07-2025
- Business
- Ottawa Citizen
Silver lining: Alberta natural gas — and budget — get boost with historic LNG ocean shipment
Article content If LNG prices are the silver lining of non-renewables, the light clouds could be gas prices — and the shadow comes from U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs. Article content 'Overall, the oil market is good, not great,' Botterill said. Article content OPEC+ has reversed voluntary production cuts, announcing consecutive monthly production increases since April. Article content 'This strategy aims to capture greater market share from non-OPEC producers amidst a volatile global trade environment influenced by U.S. tariffs,' the Deloitte & Touche report found. Article content The Energy Information Administration expects oil production growth in 2025 will surpass annual demand growth, posing a risk of oversupply. Article content Article content 'We are in a little bit of an oversupply place right now around the globe, meaning that I think we're probably going to see OPEC probably stay the line and stay the course, because I think they'd much rather see higher prices than flooding the market,' Botterill said. Article content 'Obviously, with some of the conflicts going on right now, there's big supply chain issues and cargoes not being able to move directions we'd like to move them due to foreign conflicts, so we may see some problems on that.' Article content Overall, in the Canadian market, the discount on Western Canadian Select (WCS) to WTI settlement prices has narrowed with markedly low fluctuation, to around US$10 in the past quarter, achieving one of the lowest quarterly averages observed for this differential in recent years, the Deloitte & Touche report found. Article content Much of the credit goes to the 2024 twinning of the Trans Mountain Pipeline from Edmonton to Burnaby, B.C. and Washington state, with a 'batching' process allowing different petroleum products—and more than twice as much of it—to move through the pipeline in sequence. Article content Article content 'This suggests that the TMX, which was completed last year to enable pipeline egress for heavy crude from Western Canada, is the main factor sustaining the narrow differential and appears to have fundamentally affected the Canadian oil market on whole,' the report found. Article content 'What has been great about the Trans Mountain Pipeline extension is having that those extra seaborne volumes going out into Asia have strengthened Canadian received prices. It kind of proves the case that, hey, if we have more markets that we can get to, people have to compete for our volumes, right?' Botterill said. Article content In Q3 2025, Canadian oil differentials may tighten further as wildfires across Alberta have contributed to the shut-in of 7 per cent of Canada's production, according to Reuters estimates. Article content The Alberta government saw the 2024-25 fiscal year ending March 31 with a healthy bottom line, with a $4.7 billion injection from non-renewable resource revenue and record-high production, as well as the opening of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion in May 2024.
Edmonton Journal
07-07-2025
- Business
- Edmonton Journal
Silver lining: Alberta natural gas — and budget — get boost with historic LNG ocean shipment
Article content Chilled to a liquid state, a cargo of natural gas started a historic voyage on Canada Day, setting off a good chain reaction on Alberta's natural gas industry. Article content Westbound over the Pacific for China, the shipment from LNG Canada bound for global markets was good news for the Alberta economy, said Andrew Botterill, Energy, Resources & Industrials Partner at Deloitte Canada. Article content Article content While the LNG on the boat originated in BC via the Coastal Gas Link, when it comes to LNG pricing, all boats rise with the tide, Botterill told Postmedia in an embargoed interview Thursday. Article content Article content When Alberta's — and Canada's — LNG was restricted to North American markets, it was at the mercy of American demand, resulting in an unfavourable price differential between American and Canadian LNG. Article content Article content With one westbound boatload, that has changed. Article content 'The gas market is nice, just to see that extra business, that extra opportunity for Canadian gas volumes to hit the West Coast,' he said. 'The business case has proved out to be this is good for Canada and this is good for all companies. Article content 'We're now doing it for real … It shows that the business is there, it's happening.' Article content It will take time for the facility to be up and running full steam, but the rest of 2025 and 2026 are expected to bear that business case out: that natural gas can be chilled to a liquid state, put on a boat, and exported by sea. Article content Article content 'All in all, the entire natural gas industry, for Alberta and B.C., the gas market is going to see the opportunity of LNG take real shape in the next 18 months,' Botterill said. Article content Article content Between now and 2032, the Deloitte & Touche report projects a steady increase in natural gas production growth. Article content An increased demand for natural gas could result in price hikes for Alberta and British Columbia LNG — and more markets, more volumes, means a smaller differential with U.S. prices. Article content 'This is meaningful for Canada. Us being able to put natural gas in another direction, not just to the U.S., is going to narrow some of that natural gas differential,' he said.
National Observer
07-07-2025
- Business
- National Observer
Alberta natural gas is expected to see a bump next year thanks to LNG exports: Deloitte
A new report from advisory firm Deloitte is forecasting a big jump in Alberta natural gas prices next year, with the country's first West Coast export facility now up and running. The Alberta benchmark AECO price is expected to average $2.20 per mmBTU in the second half of this year and then rise to an average of $3.50 per mmBTU in 2026. It averaged $1.36 per mmBTU last year. By the end of the forecast in 2032, the average AECO price is expected to hit $4 per mmBTU. Alberta producers now have an outlet for their gas to markets beyond the United States with LNG Canada shipping its first cargo of ultra-chilled gas across the Pacific to Asia from Kitimat, BC, last week. Deloitte partner Andrew Botterill says that will give producers the confidence they need to invest in new drilling, while consumers who use natural gas to heat their homes can expect to see their bills go up. "It's really an opportunity for producers to get to get volumes into another sales point, which dramatically changes things," he said. For many years, Albertans have enjoyed relatively cheap natural gas. "Things do look stronger now than they have in the past, but we're also right in the middle of the summer when the natural gas pricing is at its low," he said. "Through the remainder of this year and into next year, our natural gas price is going to be higher and it's going to cost more to put through our furnaces." Based on current levels of drilling and capital spending, Deloitte predicts Canadian producers will not fill demand from current LNG export projects operating or in the works for four two seven years, meaning Alberta pricing should remain strong for the foreseeable future. For oil, Deloitte is predicting West Texas Intermediate, the main US crude benchmark, to average US$72 a barrel in the second half of this year, dipping to US$67.30 next year and rising to US$74.65 by 2032. Botterill said Canadian companies can manage that price range well, especially since they benefit from a strong US dollar. The price discount for western Canadian heavy crude has also narrowed thanks to the startup last year of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion to the Vancouver area, through which meaningful volumes can be sold in Asia. "While the price isn't as robust ... Canadian companies are managing quite well, but they're being cautious on where they deploy capital and not spending too much too quickly."
