Silver lining: Alberta natural gas — and budget — get boost with historic LNG ocean shipment
If LNG prices are the silver lining of non-renewables, the light clouds could be gas prices — and the shadow comes from U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs.
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'Overall, the oil market is good, not great,' Botterill said.
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OPEC+ has reversed voluntary production cuts, announcing consecutive monthly production increases since April.
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'This strategy aims to capture greater market share from non-OPEC producers amidst a volatile global trade environment influenced by U.S. tariffs,' the Deloitte & Touche report found.
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The Energy Information Administration expects oil production growth in 2025 will surpass annual demand growth, posing a risk of oversupply.
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'We are in a little bit of an oversupply place right now around the globe, meaning that I think we're probably going to see OPEC probably stay the line and stay the course, because I think they'd much rather see higher prices than flooding the market,' Botterill said.
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'Obviously, with some of the conflicts going on right now, there's big supply chain issues and cargoes not being able to move directions we'd like to move them due to foreign conflicts, so we may see some problems on that.'
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Overall, in the Canadian market, the discount on Western Canadian Select (WCS) to WTI settlement prices has narrowed with markedly low fluctuation, to around US$10 in the past quarter, achieving one of the lowest quarterly averages observed for this differential in recent years, the Deloitte & Touche report found.
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Much of the credit goes to the 2024 twinning of the Trans Mountain Pipeline from Edmonton to Burnaby, B.C. and Washington state, with a 'batching' process allowing different petroleum products—and more than twice as much of it—to move through the pipeline in sequence.
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'This suggests that the TMX, which was completed last year to enable pipeline egress for heavy crude from Western Canada, is the main factor sustaining the narrow differential and appears to have fundamentally affected the Canadian oil market on whole,' the report found.
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'What has been great about the Trans Mountain Pipeline extension is having that those extra seaborne volumes going out into Asia have strengthened Canadian received prices. It kind of proves the case that, hey, if we have more markets that we can get to, people have to compete for our volumes, right?' Botterill said.
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In Q3 2025, Canadian oil differentials may tighten further as wildfires across Alberta have contributed to the shut-in of 7 per cent of Canada's production, according to Reuters estimates.
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The Alberta government saw the 2024-25 fiscal year ending March 31 with a healthy bottom line, with a $4.7 billion injection from non-renewable resource revenue and record-high production, as well as the opening of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion in May 2024.
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Even without wins, Musk's party may be threat to Trump: analysts
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CTV News
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Trump to put 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea, new import taxes on 12 other nations
Japan and South Korea were among the 14 countries to receive a letter from U.S. President Trump warning of a 25 per cent tariff. Mike Le Couteur explains. WASHINGTON — U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday set a 25 per cent tax on goods imported from Japan and South Korea, as well as new tariff rates on a dozen other nations that would go into effect on Aug. 1. Trump provided notice by posting letters on Truth Social that were addressed to the leaders of the various countries. The letters warned them to not retaliate by increasing their own import taxes, or else the Trump administration would further increase tariffs. 'If for any reason you decide to raise your Tariffs, then, whatever the number you choose to raise them by, will be added onto the 25 per cent that we charge,' Trump wrote in the letters to Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and South Korean President Lee Jae-myung. The letters were not the final word from Trump on tariffs, so much as another episode in a global economic drama in which he has placed himself at the center. His moves have raised fears that economic growth would slow to a trickle, if not make the U.S. and other nations more vulnerable to a recession. But Trump is confident that tariffs are necessary to bring back domestic manufacturing and fund the tax cuts he signed into law last Friday. He mixed his sense of aggression with a willingness to still negotiate, signaling the likelihood that the drama and uncertainty would continue and that few things are ever final with Trump. 'It's all done,' Trump told reporters on Monday. 'I told you we'll make some deals, but for the most part we're going to send a letter.' Imports from Myanmar and Laos would be taxed at 40 per cent, Cambodia and Thailand at 36 per cent, Serbia and Bangladesh at 35 per cent, Indonesia at 32 per cent, South Africa and Bosnia and Herzegovina at 30 per cent and Kazakhstan, Malaysia and Tunisia at 25 per cent. Trump placed the word 'only' before revealing the rate in his letters to the foreign leaders, implying that he was being generous with his tariffs. But the letters generally followed a standard format, so much so that the one to Bosnia and Herzegovina initially addressed its woman leader, Zeljka Cvijanovi─ç, as 'Mr. President.' Trump later posted a corrected letter. Trade talks have yet to deliver several deals White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said that Trump was by setting the rates himself creating 'tailor-made trade plans for each and every country on this planet and that's what this administration continues to be focused on.' Following a now well-worn pattern, Trump plans to continue sharing the letters sent to his counterparts on social media and then mail them the documents, a stark departure from the more formal practices of all his predecessors when negotiating trade agreements. The letters are not agreed-to settlements but Trump's own choice on rates, a sign that the closed-door talks with foreign delegations failed to produce satisfactory results for either side. Wendy Cutler, vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute who formerly worked in the office of the U.S. Trade Representative, said the tariff hikes on Japan and South Korea were 'unfortunate.' 'Both have been close partners on economic security matters and have a lot to offer the United States on priority matters like shipbuilding, semiconductors, critical minerals and energy cooperation,' Cutler said. Trump still has outstanding differences on trade with the European Union and India, among other trading partners. Tougher talks with China are on a longer time horizon in which imports from that nation are being taxed at 55 per cent. The office of South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said in a statement that the tariff rates announced by Trump mischaracterized the trade relationship with the U.S., but it would 'continue with its diplomatic efforts towards a more balanced and mutually beneficial trade relationship with the United States' after having proposed a trade framework on May 20. Higher tariffs prompt market worries, more uncertainty ahead The S&P 500 stock index was down 0.8 per cent in Monday trading, while the interest charged on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes had increased to nearly 4.39 per cent, a figure that could translate into elevated rates for mortgages and auto loans. Trump has declared an economic emergency to unilaterally impose the taxes, suggesting they are remedies for past trade deficits even though many U.S. consumers have come to value autos, electronics and other goods from Japan and South Korea. The constitution grants Congress the power to levy tariffs under normal circumstances, though tariffs can also result from executive branch investigations regarding national security risks. Trump's ability to impose tariffs through an economic emergency is under legal challenge, with the administration appealing a May ruling by the U.S. Court of International Trade that said the president exceeded his authority. It's unclear what he gains strategically against China - another stated reason for the tariffs - by challenging two crucial partners in Asia, Japan and South Korea, that could counter China's economic heft. 'These tariffs may be modified, upward or downward, depending on our relationship with your Country,' Trump wrote in both letters. Because the new tariff rates go into effect in roughly three weeks, Trump is setting up a period of possibly tempestuous talks among the U.S. and its trade partners to reach new frameworks. 'I don't see a huge escalation or a walk back -- it's just more of the same,' said Scott Lincicome, a vice president at the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank Trump initially roiled the financial markets by announcing tariff rates on dozens of countries, including 24 per cent on Japan and 25 per cent on South Korea. In order to calm the markets, Trump unveiled a 90-day negotiating period during which goods from most countries were taxed at a baseline 10 per cent. So far, the rates in the letters sent by Trump either match his April 2 tariffs or are generally close to them. 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The United States ran a $69.4 billion trade imbalance in goods with Japan in 2024 and a $66 billion imbalance with South Korea, according to the Census Bureau. The trade deficits are the differences between what the U.S. exports to a country relative to what it imports. According to Trump's letters, autos would be tariffed separately at the standard 25 per cent worldwide, while steel and aluminum imports would be taxed on 50 per cent. This is not the first time that Trump has tangled with Japan and South Korea on trade - and the new tariffs suggest his past deals made during his first term failed to deliver on his administration's own hype. In 2018, during Trump's first term, his administration celebrated a revamped trade agreement with South Korea as a major win. And in 2019, Trump signed a limited agreement with Japan on agricultural products and digital trade that at the time he called a 'huge victory for America's farmers, ranchers and growers.' Trump has also said on social media that countries aligned with the policy goals of BRICS, an organization composed of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates, would face additional tariffs of 10 per cent. By Josh Boak. Associated Press writer Gerald Imray in Cape Town, South Africa contributed reporting.
Vancouver Sun
2 hours ago
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B.C. boosts tax credit for developers of video games, virtual reality simulators
The B.C. government is boosting a tax credit to help developers of video games such as Electronic Arts hire additional staff and invest money locally. Premier David Eby said the interactive visual media tax credit will go from 17.5 per cent to 25 per cent starting Sept. 1, which is also when the credit will become permanent to give industry additional certainty. Speaking at Electronic Arts in Burnaby on Monday, Eby said the changes will help the sector remain competitive as part of a larger economic response to American tariff threats, which was a 'wake-up call' for the province to develop an economy that can stand on its 'own two feet.' Start your day with a roundup of B.C.-focused news and opinion. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder. The next issue of Sunrise will soon be in your inbox. Please try again Interested in more newsletters? Browse here. Finance Minister Brenda Bailey said the measures will help B.C. grow its 'knowledge economy.' Bailey said they could have raised the tax credit higher as other provinces have, but chose 25 per cent because B.C. already has a competitive tax system and other factors that attract global talent. Government agency Creative B.C. says the interactive digital media sector, which includes video games, virtual reality and educational software, employs about 20,000 people in the province and adds more than a $1 billion to the economy. Government figures show the tax credit program is expected to cost $141 million in 2025-26, $151.3 million in the second year and $180.3 million in year three. 2027-28. Natali Altshuler, chief operating officer for EA Sports Studios, welcomed the changes. Altshuler said the change recognize the value of the industry, adding that it enables companies such as EA to contribute to the provincial economy. While EA ranks among the giants in the video-game industry, smaller developers are also welcoming the higher tax credit. Heidy Motta, CEO at game studio Coldblood Inc., said the credit has helped the company 'reach the finish line when resources were scarce.' The Entertainment Software Association of Canada says B.C. is home to 161 video game companies and 230 immersive technology companies. It says almost half of all video game companies in B.C. consist of 10 or fewer people. The additional support from the provincial government also raises the question of possible reactions from the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump, who has previously criticized public support for industries from Canadian governments that he perceives to be unfair. Trump threatened earlier this year a 100 per cent tariffs on foreign-made movies to help bring more productions back to the United States after B.C. announced higher credits in late 2024 to attract and keep more film productions in the province. Eby said B.C. made the decision to boost the credit for interactive digital media independently of any possible reactions. 'We will cross the bridge's reactions when and if they happen,' Eby said.
