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Irish Times
07-07-2025
- General
- Irish Times
Carl O'Brien: ‘Why grade deflation for Leaving Cert students might not be such a bad thing'
We asked recently what you'd like to know more about in the run-up to the Leaving Cert results. Many parents are keen for more details about the impact of the postmarking adjustment for the class of 2025. 'It's unfair - why should the class of 2024 have an advantage over the class of 2025,' said one parent. 'Thousands of students from recent years will have stronger grades. Surely there is fairer system?' wrote another. There's no doubt about it: this year's students are paying for the price of Covid-era grade inflation. Students' results this year will be inflated, on aggregate, by 5.5 per cent after marking is completed. This is 1.5 per cent lower than last year's 7 per cent postmarking adjustment. This, based on our rough calculations, could be the equivalent of roughly 10-12 CAO points for a higher level student. READ MORE Why is this happening? The Minister for Education wants to gradually return Leaving Cert grades to pre-Covid norms over the course of several years to maintain the integrity of the exam results. Many students are naturally worried that they will be disadvantaged in the hunt for CAO points compared to students on bumper grades from previous years. But will it really be so bad? After digging into the numbers, there are a few reasons to believe it might not necessarily be so unfair for many students. Photograph: Nick Bradshaw 1. Lower grades may mean lower points There are several factors that influence the entry cut-off point for the CAO's round one offers in late August. They include the number of places on offer across individual courses, demand for these places and the points achieved by applicants. With so many candidates set to achieve lower points this year, on aggregate, it seems likely that CAO points will drop across many courses. Something similar happened in 2023. A particularly difficult higher level Leaving Cert maths paper meant the proportion of students who secured top grades fell significantly. For example, the proportion of students who achieved a H1 fell from 18 per cent in 2022 to 11 per cent in 2023. This meant there were thousands of fewer points washing around the system. This led to points falling across a majority – 60 per cent – of courses. More significantly, the proportion of students who secured their first-choice increased. John McGinnity, guidance counsellor with the Institute of Education, estimated at the time that the drop in the number of students who secured a H1 in maths was worth the equivalent of 20,000 points across the system. 'This drop in points had a ripple effect through the entire system given the interdependencies between courses as it cascaded down, reducing the points for those courses in the middle and lower ranges as it moved through,' McGinnity said in 2023. There is a chance, then, that with fewer points in the system this year, we could see points drop across many courses. It's not a given. In courses where there are increased applicant numbers – and no increases in places – there may be upward pressure on points. But there are reasons to be hopeful. A Leaving Certificate student checks their exam results via the online Department of Education hub. Photo: Bryan O'Brien Keywords: can leaving cert pass honours fail college education points 2. Fewer candidates with bumper results from last year The unfairness at the heart of grade deflation lies in the fact this the class of 2025 are competing against thousands of students from recent years with inflated results for the same CAO places. But how many? One higher education source tells me that data from early March shows that about 15 per cent of the 2025 CAO applicant cohort will be presenting Leaving Cert results from 2024. This is significantly down from the average of 17-18 per cent over the previous five years. These proportions are unlikely to have changed much since then, but the CAO should be able to provide more definitely data soon. How much impact this has across individual courses is another story. Either way, it is a positive indicator. Trinity College Dublin. Photograph: iStock. 3. Extra places in some courses New programmes and additional places may help to ease some points pressure across courses in very high demand such as dentistry, pharmacy and therapeutic areas this year. Last June, for example, the Government approved a significant expansion in training places for 'health and social care professions'. A total of 320 additional student places are being created in 2025 in physiotherapy, occupational therapy, speech and language therapy, radiation therapy, radiography, podiatry, social work, medical science and dietetics. In addition, there is a new dentistry course offered by the RCSI for the first time this year (20 places reserved for Irish/EU students), as well as pharmacy at University of Galway – two areas associated with sky-high entry points. Again, there is no guarantee that points will drop in these courses, but additional places are a positive indicator when it comes to easing upwards points pressure. Photograph: Nick Bradshaw 4. What's up and what's down Later this week the CAO will provide a breakdown of general course preference trends among this year's applicants following the July 1st 'change of mind' deadline. This gives a clue about what's up and what's down this year in terms of CAO points. This, in turn, gives a clue about where points requirements are likely to rise and fall. If you can't wait for that, the figures as of March this year showed that applications for college degrees in areas such as construction, engineering and architecture increased considerably in 2025. Conversely, interest in third-level courses for languages and information and communication technologies (ICT) has fallen away. In the area of health studies, school leavers applying for degrees in medicine have increased by 4 per cent; dentistry and related subject applications had a 76 per cent increase; nursery and midwifery, which are skills in high demand. How were the exams for you? We'd love to hear your feedback on this year's Leaving Cert exams: what were the hardest?; what kind of toll did it take on students?; what changes would you like to see?; are you concerned about grade 'deflation' and its impact on CAO points? Please take a few minutes to complete our survey, below, and we'll share the results soon:


Irish Times
17-06-2025
- Business
- Irish Times
Carl O'Brien: ‘Third level's best kept secret?'
It sounds too good to be true: a route to a college degree with no need for CAO points and at a fraction of the cost. Tertiary degrees were announced in a blaze of publicity three years ago by then minister for higher education, Simon Harris They were, he said, a 'game-changer' and had the potential to lift the stress on students forced to compete in a highly competitive CAO points race for college places. Simon Harris after announcing tertiary degree programmes three years ago. 'With these courses I want to send a clear message to young people and their parents when considering options after school: you can be an engineer, a nurse, study business or work in ICT without ever having to worry about those archaic and stressful Leaving Cert points.' READ MORE A total of 38 tertiary degrees are on offer this year across business, ICT, arts, engineering, social sciences, early learning & care, agricultural science, sport, construction and nursing. Details on all courses and how to apply are available at the National Tertiary Office . What's the catch? The courses start in a further education course and then progress to the technological university. It means students a nominal cost at the start of the course and regular fees when it moves to university. Yet, three years into the operation of the initiative, the numbers taking part are fairly disappointing. A total of 152 students started courses during the first intake in 2023 across 14 different degrees. Last year the number climbed to 224 tertiary students. By comparison, the CAO this year received a record 83,000-plus applications, up from almost 77,000 last year. Slow take-off So, why haven't tertiary degree options caught the imagination of school leavers? One reason is that quite a number of degree for courses which weren't exactly in high demand in the CAO system The most popular tertiary degree routes so far are for courses in nursing. While it used to attract high points, it has fallen to between 340 and 420 points in recent years. Some tertiary courses have not had any participants. There are signs of change, however. University College Cork (UCC) is the first traditional university to offer tertiary degrees. One of its offerings is a BSc in occupational therapy, which had CAO entry points in excess of 500 points last year. More programmes are now being designed in partnership with industry to tackle skills shortages and equip students for careers in sectors that need them. Today's exams: Thousands of students were again completing Leaving Cert exams in Spanish and chemistry - both exams were broadly well received, but had their challenges. Up tomorrow: Physics (9.30-12mdday) and accounting (2-4.30pm) How are we doing? If you are a parent/ guardian of a Leaving Cert student, we'd love to hear from you. Maybe you have a personal story to share, have a burning question or want to comment on the exams, CAO and further education applications process. Please click the link below to send us your questions or feedback: ingCert