Carl O'Brien: ‘Why grade deflation for Leaving Cert students might not be such a bad thing'
'It's unfair - why should the class of 2024 have an advantage over the class of 2025,' said one parent. 'Thousands of students from recent years will have stronger grades. Surely there is fairer system?' wrote another.
There's no doubt about it: this year's students are paying for the price of Covid-era grade inflation.
Students' results this year will be inflated, on aggregate, by 5.5 per cent after marking is completed. This is 1.5 per cent lower than last year's 7 per cent postmarking adjustment. This, based on our rough calculations, could be the equivalent of roughly 10-12 CAO points for a higher level student.
READ MORE
Why is this happening? The Minister for Education wants to gradually return Leaving Cert grades to pre-Covid norms over the course of several years to maintain the integrity of the exam results.
Many students are naturally worried that they will be disadvantaged in the hunt for CAO points compared to students on bumper grades from previous years.
But will it really be so bad?
After digging into the numbers, there are a few reasons to believe it might not necessarily be so unfair for many students.
Photograph: Nick Bradshaw
1. Lower grades may mean lower points
There are several factors that influence the entry cut-off point for the CAO's round one offers in late August. They include the number of places on offer across individual courses, demand for these places and the points achieved by applicants.
With so many candidates set to achieve lower points this year, on aggregate, it seems likely that CAO points will drop across many courses.
Something similar happened in 2023. A particularly difficult higher level Leaving Cert maths paper meant the proportion of students who secured top grades fell significantly.
For example, the proportion of students who achieved a H1 fell from 18 per cent in 2022 to 11 per cent in 2023.
This meant there were thousands of fewer points washing around the system.
This led to points falling across a majority – 60 per cent – of courses.
More significantly, the proportion of students who secured their first-choice increased.
John McGinnity, guidance counsellor with the Institute of Education, estimated at the time that the drop in the number of students who secured a H1 in maths was worth the equivalent of 20,000 points across the system.
'This drop in points had a ripple effect through the entire system given the interdependencies between courses as it cascaded down, reducing the points for those courses in the middle and lower ranges as it moved through,' McGinnity said in 2023.
There is a chance, then, that with fewer points in the system this year, we could see points drop across many courses.
It's not a given. In courses where there are increased applicant numbers – and no increases in places – there may be upward pressure on points.
But there are reasons to be hopeful.
A Leaving Certificate student checks their exam results via the online Department of Education hub. Photo: Bryan O'Brien
Keywords: can leaving cert pass honours fail college education points
2. Fewer candidates with bumper results from last year
The unfairness at the heart of grade deflation lies in the fact this the class of 2025 are competing against thousands of students from recent years with inflated results for the same CAO places.
But how many?
One higher education source tells me that data from early March shows that about 15 per cent of the 2025 CAO applicant cohort will be presenting Leaving Cert results from 2024.
This is significantly down from the average of 17-18 per cent over the previous five years.
These proportions are unlikely to have changed much since then, but the CAO should be able to provide more definitely data soon.
How much impact this has across individual courses is another story. Either way, it is a positive indicator.
Trinity College Dublin. Photograph: iStock.
3. Extra places in some courses
New programmes and additional places may help to ease some points pressure across courses in very high demand such as dentistry, pharmacy and therapeutic areas this year.
Last June, for example, the Government approved a significant expansion in training places for 'health and social care professions'.
A total of 320 additional student places are being created in 2025 in physiotherapy, occupational therapy, speech and language therapy, radiation therapy, radiography, podiatry, social work, medical science and dietetics.
In addition, there is a new dentistry course offered by the RCSI for the first time this year (20 places reserved for Irish/EU students), as well as pharmacy at University of Galway – two areas associated with sky-high entry points.
Again, there is no guarantee that points will drop in these courses, but additional places are a positive indicator when it comes to easing upwards points pressure.
Photograph: Nick Bradshaw
4. What's up and what's down
Later this week the CAO will provide a breakdown of general course preference trends among this year's applicants following the July 1st 'change of mind' deadline.
This gives a clue about what's up and what's down this year in terms of CAO points.
This, in turn, gives a clue about where points requirements are likely to rise and fall.
If you can't wait for that, the figures as of March this year showed that applications for college degrees in areas such as construction, engineering and architecture increased considerably in 2025.
Conversely, interest in
third-level courses
for languages and information and communication technologies (ICT) has fallen away.
In the area of health studies, school leavers applying for degrees in medicine have increased by 4 per cent; dentistry and related subject applications had a 76 per cent increase; nursery and midwifery, which are skills in high demand.
How were the exams for you?
We'd love to hear your feedback on this year's Leaving Cert exams: what were the hardest?; what kind of toll did it take on students?; what changes would you like to see?; are you concerned about grade 'deflation' and its impact on CAO points?
Please take a few minutes to complete our survey, below, and we'll share the results soon:
https://www.research.net/r/ClassroomtoCollege
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Irish Times
7 hours ago
- Irish Times
'Minister Lawless, take action': Adult Education Teachers protest outside Dáil
Family members of children believed to be buried at the former mother and baby institution in Tuam have spoken to the media ahead of the excavation of the site.
Irish Times
17 hours ago
- Irish Times
Tusla warns of risk to services due to significant rise in unaccompanied minors arriving in State
Tusla continues to see a 'rapid increase' in the number of children arriving unaccompanied in Ireland to seek international protection, with the agency saying it accommodated 570 such children last year. The child and family agency said the rise is due to 'ongoing conflicts around the world'. This has forced it to 'rapidly increase' its team tasked with helping these minors. In a section of its newly-published annual report noting risks, the agency said there is a 'risk that Tusla will not be able to provide services in line with standards and regulations . . . due to the significant increase in the number of arrivals and the lack of sufficient resources to meet demand'. Such a scenario 'could result in a large number of children being placed in Special Emergency Arrangements', which are unregulated, private placements. READ MORE The 570 children Tusla took into care or accommodated last year represents a 32 per cent increase from 2023, the State agency said. A third are Ukrainian , while the remainder arrived seeking international protection from countries such as Somalia, Afghanistan, Nigeria, Palestine , Syria, Zimbabwe and Pakistan, Tusla said in its report. The agency found placements for 530 newly-arrived minors in 2023 and 350 in 2022 – the year Russia invaded Ukraine – which was triple the 2021 figure. 'The demand for Tusla services was significantly increased because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022, resulting in the immediate need to accommodate Ukrainian children arriving as unaccompanied minors,' the agency reported at the time. Taking into account children remaining in Tusla's care last year having arrived in Ireland in previous years, the agency said it accommodated 893 unaccompanied minors during 2024. The majority were male and aged 16 or 17, Tusla said. The agency said it has opened 20 new residential centres with 128 beds for the rising number of children. 'This has meant that when vulnerable children arrive in Ireland on their own, we have more placements available so that their needs are met via a care plan or placement plan,' it said. Tusla was inspected by the Health Information and Quality Authority (Hiqa) 39 times last year, achieving a 78 per cent compliant/substantially compliant rating. This is a slight drop from the 82 per cent achieved in 2023. Tusla said this is 'in spite of the unprecedented demands on services'. Excluding separated minors seeking protection, the number of children in Tusla's care has dropped by 13 per cent in the decade leading to 2024. In 2014, there were 6,454 other children in the agency's care, while there were 5,600 in its care at the start of last year.
Irish Times
18 hours ago
- Irish Times
Ballinteer two-bed with big south-facing garden a short walk from Dundrum Town Centre for €595,000
Address : 38 Ballinteer Gardens, Ballinteer, Dublin 16 Price : €595,000 Agent : Sherry FitzGerald View this property on It is one of life's coincidences that a pilot in the Irish Air Corps wound up buying a home in Ballinteer, Dublin 16, that was originally built in 1932 by the Irish Sailors' and Soldiers' Land Trust (ISSLT) for ex-servicemen of the first World War; the organisation's crest is still visible on the entrance pillars to the quiet cul-de-sac. 'Because of the very poor housing conditions in Ireland at the beginning of the 20th century, a promise of housing after the war was used to tempt Irish recruits into the British army during the latter part of the Great War,' according to a 2014 paper, entitled Old Ballinteer, written by a local history group formed by Ballinteer Active Retirement Association. 'After independence, and despite the initial opposition of the new Free State government, the British authorities felt obliged to build homes for Irish ex-servicemen in Ireland. The Free State government in 1923 passed the Land Trust Act establishing the ISSLT to allow the provision of housing in Ireland by the British authorities for Irish ex-servicemen,' the paper says. Livingroom Kitchen Dining area South-facing back garden The owner of 38 Ballinteer Gardens – a two-bedroom redbrick home extending to 65sq m (700sq ft) – purchased it in 2011 and has now put it on the market in excellent condition with a well-tended south-facing garden, seeking €595,000 through Sherry FitzGerald. READ MORE The end-terrace home, with its entrance facing out to the right, looks neat from the road, with a gravel driveway to the house, bordered by ample shrubs. When the owner first moved in, he had double-glazed windows fitted in the gridded style of the originals. At that he also had the home insulated – it now has a C1 Ber – replumbed and the electrics refitted. You enter the home into a small entrance hallway at the foot of the stairs that leads into the livingroom to the front; it's a good-sized room that has a fireplace at its centre, with alcoves for shelving on either side. This room connects to the kitchen and dining area which is a bright rectangular space with the kitchen built into one corner with the dining space opposite. The kitchen, although fitted in 2011, looks fresh with white wooden units, wood-effect countertops and a grey metro-tile splashback. There is also a utility cupboard for the washing machine under the stairs. Main bedroom Second bedroom Bathroom A glazed back door opens to the immaculate back garden, which extends to about 18.5sq m in total. It has a spacious paved patio just outside the door, beyond which is a raised lawn bordered by lush shrubbery and flower beds. Back inside, the main double bedroom sits to the front of the first floor with a feature fireplace and built-in bookshelves. A smaller double lies to the rear – also with a fireplace – as well as the bathroom, which features a bath with a shower attachment and is fully tiled in a sandy shade. This walk-in home is also extremely well-located, with Dundrum Town Centre and Balally green-line Luas stop both within a 15-minute walk – the Luas takes about 20 minutes to reach St Stephen's Green in Dublin city centre. Access to the M50 is also close by as well as the hiking trails of the Dublin Mountains.
