Latest news with #CFPI
Hans India
06-07-2025
- Business
- Hans India
India's economy has tripled in size over last decade
India's growth story continues to draw global attention, backed by strong fundamentals and consistent performance. Over the past decade, India's economic size has tripled from Rs 106.57 lakh crore in to Rs 331.03 lakh crore in 2024–25, with the GDP growth at a robust 6.5 per cent for the year, according to official figures released on Sunday. The Reserve Bank of India expects this pace to continue into 2025–26. Other projections echo this optimism, with the United Nations forecasting growth of 6.3 per cent this year and 6.4 per cent next year, while the Confederation of Indian Industry places its estimate slightly higher at 6.4 to 6.7 per cent. This sustained performance is being driven by strong domestic demand. Rural consumption has picked up, city spending is rising, and private investment is on the upswing. Businesses are expanding capacity, with many operating near their maximum output levels. At the same time, public investment remains high, especially in infrastructure, while stable borrowing conditions are helping firms and consumers make forward-looking decisions, the statement said. Global conditions, by contrast, remain fragile. The United Nations has described the world economy as being in a "precarious moment", citing trade tensions, policy uncertainties, and declining cross-border investments. Amid this, India continues to stand out as a bright spot, with global institutions and industry bodies expressing confidence in its growth prospects. As part of India's strong macroeconomic fundamentals, inflation in the country has eased sharply, offering relief to both households and businesses. In May 2025, the year-on-year inflation rate based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 2.82 per cent. This marks the lowest level since February 2019. It also reflects a drop of 34 basis points from the previous month. Food prices, which often have a big impact on overall inflation, have also cooled. The Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) recorded an inflation rate of just 0.99 per cent in May 2025. This is the lowest food inflation seen since October 2021. Rural and urban food inflation were almost identical, at 0.95 per cent and 0.96 per cent, respectively. Compared to April 2025, food inflation declined by 79 basis points, showing a clear downward trend in essential items like vegetables and grains. Overall, the Reserve Bank believes that inflation will stay aligned with its medium-term target of 4 per cent. In fact, it may even fall slightly below that level in the coming months. India's capital markets are booming, and the confidence is visible. They have become a powerful engine for economic growth by turning household savings into investments. Despite global tensions and domestic uncertainties, the stock market maintained strong performance by December 2024. It outperformed many other emerging economies, showing how investors, both local and global, trust India's growth story, the statement added.
Mint
25-06-2025
- Business
- Mint
Horticulture output estimated at record 367.72 million tonnes in 2024-25
The second advance estimates for horticultural crops in 2024-25 indicate a total production of 367.72 million tonnes (mt), a 3.7% increase compared to the previous year. This includes a projected rise in the production of key vegetables such as potato, onion, green chilli, bottle guard and fruit. The estimates were released by the Department of Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare on Wednesday. Releasing the data, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Union agriculture minister, said that the total area under horticulture crops witness an increase of 1.81 lakh hectares to 29.26 million hectares and the country witness record production of 367.72 mt. The matter assumes significance as the increase in the production of horticulture crops (fruit, and vegetables) can play a significant role in easing inflation, especially food inflation. May's All India Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) shows a provisional 0.99% year-on-year inflation. Corresponding inflation rate for rural and urban are 0.95% and 0.96%, respectively. A sharp decline of 79 basis points is observed in food inflation in May in comparison to April. The food inflation in May is the lowest since October 2021. According to the ministry, production of vegetables is estimated to have increased 6.11% to 219.67 mt in 2024-25, from 207.02 mt in the year prior. The increase in production is mainly due to an increase in potato, onion, green chilli and bottle guard output. Production of fruit is estimated to have increased to 114.51 mt in 2024-25, a nominal increase of 1.36% over the last year. The country is likely to witness an increase in production of watermelon, mangoes, banana, mausami and papaya. In vegetables, production of potatoes is projected at 60.17 mt in 2024-25, which is 3.12 mt more than the same period last year, while production of onion is projected at 30.77 mt in 2024-25, almost 27% more than 2023-24. The estimates showed that tomato production in 2024-25 season is estimated at 20.75 mt, which is slightly lower than the previous year's 21.32 mt. Overall, the area under horticulture crops is seen to have increased marginally to 29.26 million hectares from 29.08 million hectares in the year before.
Business Standard
12-06-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Consumer Price inflation falls to lowest since Feb-19
Ministry of Statistics stated in a latest update that year-on-year inflation rate based on All India Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of May, 2025 over May, 2024 is 2.82% (Provisional). There is decline of 34 basis points in headline inflation of May, 2025 in comparison to April, 2025. It is the lowest year-on-year inflation after February, 2019. Year-on-year inflation rate based on All India Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) for the month of May, 2025 over May, 2024 is 0.99% (Provisional). Corresponding inflation rate for rural and urban are 0.95% and 0.96%, respectively. All India inflation rates for CPI(General) and CFPI over the last 13 months are shown below. A sharp decline of 79 basis point is observed in food inflation in May, 2025 in comparison to April, 2025. The food inflation in May, 2025 is the lowest after October, 2021. The sharp drop in headline inflation and food inflation during the month of May, 2025 is mainly attributed to decline in inflation of Pulses & products, Vegetables, Fruits, Cereals & products, Households goods & services, Sugar & confectionary and Egg and the favourable base effect. Rural Inflation: Significant decline was noted in headline and food inflation in rural sector observed in May, 2025. The headline inflation is 2.59% (Provisional) in May, 2025 while the same was 2.92% in April, 2025. The CFPI based food inflation in rural sector is observed as 0.95% (Provisional) in May, 2025 in comparison to 1.85% in April, 2025. Urban Inflation: Significant decline was noted from 3.36% in April, 2025 to 3.07% (Provisional) in May, 2025 is observed in headline inflation of urban sector. Sharp decline is also observed in food inflation from 1.64% in April, 2025 to 0.96% (Provisional) in May, 2025. Housing Inflation: Year-on-year Housing inflation rate for the month of May, 2025 is 3.16% (Provisional). Corresponding inflation rate for the month of April, 2025 was 3.06%. The housing index is compiled for urban sector only. Education Inflation: Year-on-year Education inflation rate for the month of May, 2025 is 4.12% (Provisional). Corresponding inflation rate for the month of April, 2025 was 4.13%. Health Inflation: Year-on-year Health inflation rate for the month of May, 2025 is 4.34% (Provisional). Corresponding inflation rate for the month of April, 2025 was 4.25%. Transport & Communication: Year-on-year Transport & communication inflation rate for the month of May, 2025 is 3.85%(Provisional). Corresponding inflation rate for the month of April, 2025 was 3.67%. It is combined inflation rate for both rural and urban sector. Fuel & light: Year-on-year Fuel & light inflation rate for the month of May, 2025 is 2.78%(Provisional). Corresponding inflation rate for the month of April, 2025 was 2.92%.
Indian Express
12-06-2025
- Business
- Indian Express
Fall in food prices pulls down May CPI inflation to 2.82%, lowest since Feb 2019
A fall in prices of fruits, pulses, and cereals helped lower India's headline retail inflation rate to a 75-month low of 2.82 per cent in May 2025, acording to data released on Thursday by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), possibly providing some more easing room to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). At 2.82 per cent, the latest inflation rate based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was somewhat lower than economists' expectations of around 3 per cent. CPI inflation stood at 3.16 per cent in April 2025 and 4.80 per cent in May 2024. The last time retail inflation was lower was in February 2019, when it stood at 2.57 per cent. Per MoSPI data, food inflation as measured by the Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) almost halved to a 43-month low of 0.99 per cent last month from 1.78 per cent in April 2025 as fruit prices declined by 2 per cent month-on-month (m-o-m) while those of pulses were down 1.7 per cent. Cereals also helped to bring down the overall food inflation in May 2025, with prices down 0.6 per cent compared to the previous month. Prices of vegetables, meanwhile, inched up slightly last month from April 2025. However, in year-on-year (y-o-y) terms, retail prices of vegetables were down 13.7 per cent — the sharpest pace of decline since December 2022, according to Paras Jasrai, associate director and economist at India Ratings & Research. Proteins became more expensive on a sequential basis in May 2025. While the price of meat and fish was up 1.5 per cent m-o-m, egg prices rose 2.5 per cent and milk turned 0.7 per cent more expensive in May. Core inflation — which excludes items whose prices are volatile such as food and fuel and is seen as an indicator of underlying demand conditions — inched up to around 4.2 per cent, according to calculations done by The Indian Express. The steady rise in core inflation over the last year-and-a-half or so is suggestive of 'steady demand conditions' in the economy, said Jasrai of India Ratings. In terms of the regional break-up, urban inflation eased to 3.07 per cent in May 2025 from 3.36 per cent the previous month, while rural CPI inflation declined to 2.59 per cent from 2.92 per cent. Inflation in May 2025 was highest in Kerala at 6.46 per cent, while it was lowest in Telangana, at 0.55 per cent. According to Sujan Hajra, chief economist at Anand Rathi Group, the downward trend in CPI inflation is expected to continue through October 2025, with averaging for FY26 likely to undershoot the RBI's latest forecast of 3.7 per cent. ICRA Chief Economist, Aditi Nayar, expects retail inflation to decline further to around 2.5 per cent in June 2025 and average 3.5 per cent in FY26. 'Looking ahead, on a y-o-y (year-on-year) basis, as many as 17 of the 22 food items for which the daily data is released, recorded a lower y-o-y inflation in June 2025 (until June 10, 2025) vis-à-vis May 2025, barring most edible oils and tea,' Nayar said. 'Moreover, the GoI (Government of India) has reduced the import duty on edible oils effective end-May 2025, which would lead to a softening in prices going forward, thereby auguring well for the oils and fats inflation readings through the fiscal, which would also be suppressed by a high base.' Rajani Sinha, chief economist at CareEdge, said that while the India Meteorological Department's forecast of an above-normal monsoon reinforces the favourable outlook for food inflation, the spatial and temporal distribution of the rains will be critical. 'Despite the early onset, monsoon activity has slowed, although it remains early in the season, with potential for recovery in the coming weeks. Weather-related risks will need close monitoring,' Sinha added. While the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) last week cut the policy repo rate by an unexpectedly large 50 basis points (bps) to 5.50 per cent, it also tightened the stance of its policy to 'neutral' from 'accommodative', arguing that 'monetary policy is left with very limited space to support growth'. However, economists see the space for more one rate cut from the MPC, although not at the committee's next meeting in August 2025. Jasrai of India Ratings, for instance, expects a status quo on interest rates in August 2025 considering inflation is heading for the RBI's forecast of 2.9 per cent for April-June 2025 and the monetary easing affected so far. 'We expect, at max one more 25 bps cut this fiscal, unless there are surprises from global development or growth declines sharply,' Jasrai said. On Tuesday, the World Bank lowered its global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.3 per cent from its January 2025 prediction of 2.7 per cent citing 'heightened trade tensions and policy uncertainty'. Growth in 2026 is expected to pick up only slightly to 2.4 per cent and further to 2.6 per cent in 2027. While a global recession is not expected, the World Bank's latest projections for the next two years, should they turn out as forecast, would mean average global growth in the first seven years of the 2020s will be the slowest of any decade since the 1960s, it said. Siddharth Upasani is a Deputy Associate Editor with The Indian Express. He reports primarily on data and the economy, looking for trends and changes in the former which paint a picture of the latter. Before The Indian Express, he worked at Moneycontrol and financial newswire Informist (previously called Cogencis). Outside of work, sports, fantasy football, and graphic novels keep him busy. ... Read More
&w=3840&q=100)
Business Standard
12-06-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
India's retail inflation dips to over 6-year low of 2.82% in May: Govt data
India's retail inflation dropped to 2.82 per cent in May, down from 3.16 per cent in April, mainly due to a slower increase in food prices, according to government data released on Thursday. Food inflation in rural areas stood at 0.95 per cent and at 0.96 per cent in urban centres. The overall decline was driven by negative year-on-year inflation in vegetables (-13.7 per cent), pulses (-8.22 per cent), and spices (-2.82 per cent). Key staple categories like cereals and sugar witnessed moderate increases, with inflation of 4.77 per cent, and 4.09 per cent, respectively, while milk and oil products saw inflation of 3.15, and 17.91 per cent, respectively. Notably, prices of onions, tomatoes and potatoes registered strong deflation, which weighed heavily on the overall food basket. Meanwhile, prices of pulses dropped 8.22 per cent, following a 5.23 per cent decline in the previous month. May retail inflation: Rural and urban In rural India, headline and food inflation saw a notable drop in May 2025. Provisional data shows rural headline inflation stood at 2.59 per cent in May, down from 2.92 per cent in April. Food inflation, based on the Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI), also declined to 0.95 per cent in May from 1.85 per cent in the previous month. Urban areas also experienced a decline in inflation. Headline inflation in the urban sector fell to a provisional 3.07 per cent in May 2025, compared to 3.36 per cent in April. Food inflation in cities dropped significantly to 0.96 per cent in May from 1.64 per cent a month earlier. Housing: The year-on-year inflation rate for the housing segment stood at 3.16 per cent in May 2025 (provisional), slightly higher than 3.06 per cent recorded in April. Education: Inflation in the education sector remained largely stable, with a marginal dip to 4.12 per cent in May 2025, compared to 4.13 per cent in April. Health: Health-related inflation rose to 4.34 per cent in May 2025 (provisional), up from 4.25 per cent in the previous month. Transport and communication: The inflation rate for transport and communication increased to 3.85 per cent in May 2025, compared to 3.67 per cent in April. Fuel and light: Inflation in the fuel and light category eased to 2.78 per cent in May 2025, down from 2.92 per cent in April.
