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Forbes
12 hours ago
- Business
- Forbes
47 Should Be Worried About 37: Trump Tariffs Hitting A Key Metric Hard
For many years, the U.S. trade deficit increased — but the percentage of U.S. trade that was an ... More export did also. What that meant: Relatively speaking, the United States was exporting more, as a percentage, of total trade. That has changed this year. (From 2003 to 2024, the percentage is based on annual totals. The 2025 figure is based on the first four months of 2025.) Yes, U.S. trade is running at a record pace this year. Yes, that includes record exports. Yes, that includes record imports. Soon enough, we will see how much of that was stockpiling ahead of threatened tariffs from President Trump, in the 47th terms of a U.S. president. But there's one number going in the wrong direction, and I am not talking about the trade deficit. That, too, is of course at a record pace as well through April, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau data I analyzed. The number I watch, and watch closely despite its seemingly slight movements, is the ratio between exports and total trade. That number stood at 36.75% through April. If U.S. exports stay at 36.75% of total U.S. trade through 2025, it will be the lowest level since ... More 2006, almost two decades ago. The last time the United States finished a year below that was the four years from 2003 through 2006. Not before, to my knowledge, and not since. Hold on, this one might seem a little wonky but the only real concept at play here is this: The ratio of exports to imports is every bit if not more important than the difference between the two. Onward: What's so special about those four years? That was right after China entered the World Trade Organization and unleased its manufacturing might on the United States and the world. But almost every year after that four-year trough, as the Chinese appetite for U.S. exports increased, that percentage moved toward the historical norm of 39.95%. That might not sound like a big difference 36.75% and 39.95% – but when U.S. annual trade is $5.33 trillion, as it was in 2024, a 1% move is equal to $53.3 billion. A move of 3.2% points – in other words, to the average over the last three decades – is equal to $170.56 billion. I can't imagine there's an exporter in this country who wouldn't want at least a little of that action. What happened in the decade after that four-year trough? U.S. exports to China from 2006 to 2016 were larger than to any other country in the world, except Mexico, which was benefitting from the North America Free Trade Agreement. While not growing as much, exports to China were growing faster than those to Mexico. That's because China was starting from a smaller base. U.S. exports to China increased 83.67% compared to 69.39% for Mexico – even with the more difficult logistics involved. The growth in exports – imports from China were also rising rapidly, as was the U.S. deficit with China – showed up in the U.S. percentage of trade with China that was an export. It increased from a rather paltry 15.72% in 2016 to a slightly less paltry 20.01% in 2016. U.S. exports to China, through April, by percentage. While the increasing trade deficit (exports minus imports) represents the strength of American buying power, the percentage of total trade that is an export (exports divided by total trade) represents billions in additional U.S. exports of soybeans, aircraft, medical devices and more. Since 2016, that export ratio has continued to climb. In the nine full years since, it has topped 20% seven times, falling below for only the first two years of Trump's first term. Thus far in 2025, the percentage is 23.81%. That's still well below the average with the world, of course, at just under 40%. And there's no disputing that the high tariffs that Trump put on U.S. imports from China in his first term, tariffs generally left in place by former President Joe Biden, have had an impact on the trade relationship. I have written about how the U.S. deficit with China, five times greater than any other deficit with the world when Trump entered office the first time, is now only 50% greater than that of Mexico. And yet, the U.S. deficit continues to climb, topping $1 trillion six of the last eight years. I have written that China's percentage of U.S. trade dipped to its lowest level in more than two decades. And yet, U.S. trade continues to climb, as other trade partners, Vietnam among them, have continued to grow rapidly. I have written that China has slipped to rank third among U.S. trade partners, after ranking first, that it also fell behind Mexico as an importer into the United States. Trade with Mexico has been robust – and the U.S. deficit with Mexico has swollen as China's has retracted. I have written that that most symbolic of Chinese imports, the cell phone, and its related parts, dipped to their lowest level in two decades. And cell phone imports have remained robust but shifted to India and Vietnam. I have written about what the Trump administration deemed the 'Dirty 15,' those countries with which the United States has its largest trade deficits. Most are both our largest export markets and our allies. For decades, the United States government, albeit begrudgingly, seemed to believe that a focus on U.S. exports would eventually be better than a narrow focus on the trade deficit. While China lags behind most other top trade partners and top large economies in its percentage of trade that is an export, its progress has been unrivaled. Could China have gotten to 30%? What about 40%? Could it still? What would China look like if its economy was able to buy an additional $800 in exports from the United States? Could the United States produce that much? Could it grow enough soybeans? Could Boeing manufacture enough jets? Could U.S. drug makers increase their output sufficiently? Could U.S. automakers, and even foreign automakers building cars in the United States and employing 'blue-collar' Americans, produce enough cars? It would, of course, extend beyond merchandise trade. American brands would be coveted. It would extend to service trade, to hotel chains, to restaurant chains, to movies, to our universities and to increased tourism in the United States. What a boost to the U.S. economy that would be. That view, that a laser-sharp focus on increasing exports would be better than reducing the deficit, is no longer in vogue. And yet, despite all that, our trade has continued to grow, our imports have continued to grow, our exports have continued to grow, albeit more slowly, our trade deficit has continued to grow – and our percentage of trade that is an export has fallen.
Axios
a day ago
- Business
- Axios
North Carolina is getting older
North Carolina was one of only 10 states in the country where the number of people under the age of 18 grew between 2020 and 2024, according to new Census data. At the same time, it was also one of the states with the fastest-growing population of people 65 years or older. Why it matters: America's older population is growing while its younger cohort is shrinking, a trend that presents big policy and economic challenges, Axios' Alex Fitzpatrick writes. Having more older Americans means we'll need more care workers, for instance. Driving the news: The U.S. population aged 65 and up grew by 13% between 2020 and 2024, the Census Bureau says, while the number of those under 18 fell by 1.7%. The U.S. median age hit a new record high of 39.1 in 2024, up from 38.5 in 2020. In North Carolina, the median age increased from 38.9 to 39.2 between 2020 and 2024, The News & Observer noted. State of play: In North Carolina, the population aged 65 and up grew by 15.1% between 2020 and 2024, while the number of those under 18 grew by 1.7%. The state's budget office projects North Carolina's older adult population will double by 2040. Yes, but: The share of young North Carolinians is also expected to continue to rise. By 2030, North Carolina will have 607,000 pre-school age children, an increase of 3.8%, according to state data, due to a larger cohort of women in their prime childbearing years. By 2060, the state will have 746,000 pre-school age children — a 23% increase from today. Between the lines: The birth rate has fallen significantly in North Carolina over the past two decades. At the same time, the state has become an attractive place for retirees, and Brunswick, Dare and Orange counties had the largest growth in their older population, according to Carolina Demography. Stunning stat: Still, North Carolina's demographics are younger than many states. There are now 11 states with more older adults than children, up from only three in 2020. They include Maine, Vermont, Florida, Delaware, Hawai'i, Montana, New Hampshire, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and West Virginia. What they're saying: The gap between children and older adults "is narrowing as baby boomers continue to age into their retirement years," Lauren Bowers, chief of the Census Bureau's Population Estimates Branch, said in a statement accompanying the new data.
USA Today
a day ago
- Politics
- USA Today
Supreme Court birthright decision: How many people gain citizenship this way?
Today's Supreme Court decision did not weigh in on whether the Trump's executive order on birthright citizenship is constitutional, but the government's request to lift temporary blocks by district courts in related cases was granted in a 6-3 ruling. For 157 years birthright citizenship has made anyone born in the United States a citizen – whether the child of citizens, foreign nationals living legally in the U.S. or unauthorized immigrants. The matter will return to lower courts, for now. During May 15 oral arguments, none of the justices voiced support for the Trump administration's theory that the president's order is consistent with the 14th Amendment's citizenship clause and past Supreme Court decisions about that provision. Changes to birthright laws would impact a large portion of the U.S. population. According to 2023 data from the U.S. Census, 22.8 million foreign-born, non-U.S. citizens live in the country. Here's how many U.S. residents gained citizenship through birthright: How many people gain citizenship through birthright? According to estimates from the Migration Policy Institute and Penn State's Population Research Institute, ending birthright citizenship would result in an average of 255,000 children being born in the U.S. without citizenship each year, and would increase the amount of unauthorized migrants living in the U.S. by 2.7 million by 2045, and 5.4 million by 2075. The Pew Research Center found in 2022 that about 4.4 million U.S.-born children under 18 live with an unauthorized immigrant parent. How many unauthorized immigrants live in the U.S. The number of unauthorized immigrants in the U.S. has increased from the 1990s, peaking at 12.2 million in 2007, according to estimates from the Pew Research Center: Where does the foreign-born population live in the United States? In 2022, nearly a quarter of the U.S. foreign-born population lived in California. Foreign-born populations made up more than 20% of New Jersey, New York, California and Florida's total population, according to the Census Bureau. Foreign-born residents are anyone who was born outside of the U.S., including naturalized U.S. citizens, lawful permanent residents, temporary migrants, such as international students, humanitarian migrants such as refugees or asylees and unauthorized migrants. In almost every state, the foreign-born population was larger in 2022 compared to 2010. Delaware,North Dakota, South Dakota and West Virginia experienced the largest increases of foreign-born populations between 2010 and 2022, with a bump of 40% or more in each state. The foreign-born population in the U.S. has increased over the past five decades. In 1970, 4.7% of the U.S. population was born outside the U.S. By 2022, 13.9% of the U.S. population was foreign-born. Where are foreign-born U.S. residents immigrating from? More than half of foreign-born residents in the United States immigrated from countries in Latin America, according to the Census Bureau. Close to a third of residents immigrated from Asia. What is naturalization? The Council on Foreign Relations describes naturalization as a process where a non-U.S. citizen can apply for citizenship after meeting specific requirements, such as passing a civics test, demonstrating basic English proficiency and living in the States over a continuous period of time. As of 2023, nearly 25 million of the foreign-born U.S. residents were naturalized citizens. The remainder include both lawful residents and unauthorized migrants. Which countries grant birthright citizenship? At least 35 nations provide birthright citizenship to anyone born within their borders, according to World Population Review map of birthright citizenship around the globe. Read more: Countries in the Americas grant birthright citizenship. What happens if they revoke it? Key takeaways from the historic Supreme Court debate on birthright citizenship Contributing: Lauren Villagran, Maureen Groppe, and Bart Jansen
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Lifestyle
- Yahoo
3 Florida cities make HGTV top 20 of best mid-sized cities in US. See which one came in at No. 1
If big-city living isn't your thing but a more rural lifestyle doesn't sound attractive either, you may be interested in HGTV's list of the best mid-sized cities in the United States. One Florida city, Tampa, came in at No. 1 on the list, with another in the top 10 at No. 3 and a third squeaking into the top 20. HGTV described mid-sized cities as those with a population between 100,000 and 500,000. Citing the U.S. Census Bureau and think tank Milken Institute, HGTV said "newcomers are flocking to these cities." Here are HGTV's 20 "favorite mid-size cities on the upswing that are worthy of your attention." The top-ranked mid-sized city in the U.S. on HGTV's list was Tampa, on Florida's west coast. Here's what HGTV had to say about Tampa: "Tampa has a population of nearly 400,000 and it's showing no signs of slowing down, continuing to attract visitors with easy access to theme parks, major league sports teams, contemporary museums and, of course, white sandy beaches on Florida's Gulf Coast. "Visitors flock to Tampa for Busch Gardens Tampa Bay and the Tampa Museum of Art, as well as the 2.6-mile Tampa Riverwalk that meanders alongside Hillsborough River." on singles living in Tampa: Salary needed to live comfortably: $92,708 Median household income: $71,302 Average monthly cost of living: $3,863 Separated from Tampa only by Henderson, Nevada, Port St. Lucie on Florida's east coast, was ranked No. 3 by HGTV. Here's what was said: "Port St. Lucie, a town of more than 200,000 residents, jumped in population size by 5% in one year. Of course, Clover Park is a fan favorite. It's the spring training home for the New York Mets. Not a baseball fan? Not a problem. There are plenty of outdoor draws for nature enthusiasts, like Port St. Lucie Botanical Gardens and Savannas Preserve State Park, which is a go-to for kayaking, biking and birdwatching. For beach access, head to Jensen Beach for quiet stretches of coastline and fantastic fishing." Three Florida cities made HGTV's list for the best 20 mid-sized cities in the United States, with two appearing in the top 10: Tampa, Florida Henderson, Nevada Port St. Lucie, Florida Overland Park, Kansas Fort Collins, Colorado Minneapolis, Minnesota Frisco, Texas Huntsville, Alabama Durham, North Carolina Boise, Idaho Chattanooga, Tennessee Modesto, California Lubbock, Texas Omaha, Nebraska Knoxville, Tennessee Kansas City, Missouri Colorado Springs, Colorado Madison, Wisconsin Salem, Oregon Tallahassee, Florida Tallahassee is growing, moving up in the ranks as a top mid-size city, appealing for a feel that is both urban and suburban. The state capital wows with its historic downtown, public art works and a vibrant nightlife scene, as well as public parks and green spaces This article originally appeared on Sarasota Herald-Tribune: HGTV lists Tampa as No. 1 mid-sized city in US
Axios
2 days ago
- Politics
- Axios
America's older population is growing as its younger cohort shrinks
America's older population is growing while its younger cohort is shrinking, per new census data. Why it matters: This demographic trend presents big policy and economic challenges — more older Americans means we'll need more care workers, for instance. Driving the news: The U.S. population aged 65 and up grew by 13% between 2020 and 2024, the Census Bureau says, while the number of those under 18 fell by 1.7%. The U.S. median age hit a new record high of 39.1 in 2024, up from 38.5 in 2020. The big picture: These latest figures continue a longstanding trend of an aging America. The share of the U.S. population 65 and up increased from 12.4% in 2004 to 18% in 2024, the bureau notes, while the share of children fell from 25% to 21.5%. Zoom in: The number of people 65 and up increased in all states between 2020 and 2024, while that of people under 18 increased in only a handful, including Texas and Florida. Stunning stat: There are now 11 states with more older adults than children, up from only three in 2020. They include Maine, Vermont, Florida, Delaware, Hawai'i, Montana, New Hampshire, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and West Virginia. What they're saying: The gap between children and older adults "is narrowing as baby boomers continue to age into their retirement years," Lauren Bowers, chief of the Census Bureau's Population Estimates Branch, said in a statement accompanying the new data. "In fact, the number of states and counties where older adults outnumber children is on the rise, especially in sparsely populated areas." Between the lines: The latest findings could fuel "pronatalist" beliefs driven partially by fears of economic decline. Pronatalism — increasingly common especially in — frames procreation as a patriotic act and civic duty. Yes, but: Having kids is an expensive affair, especially for those who need full-time care, don't get parental leave, and so on.
