Latest news with #Curtice
The National
3 days ago
- Politics
- The National
John Curtice: Pro-independence Holyrood majority 'matters for future'
Speaking during a live recording of the Holyrood Sources podcast in Edinburgh on Wednesday evening, the polling expert also warned it is 'not inconceivable' that Nigel Farage's Reform UK win an outright majority at Westminster at the next General Election. Hours earlier, Electoral Calculus had published a Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) poll of 5400 UK voters which projected that Reform UK would win 31% of the vote and 377 Westminster seats – none of which were in Scotland. Labour were projected to drop to just 118 MPs on 22%, and the Tories to just 29 MPs – below the LibDems on 69. Curtice told the Holyrood Sources podcast that no UK party in the history of political polling had lost support as quickly after being elected as Keir Starmer's Labour Party had. READ MORE: EU, taxes, and Labour 'out of step': What we learned in John Curtice's polling report He said that in 2024 Labour's 'essential appeal was, 'well, we know you don't like the SNP, so you need to vote for us to send a message to them, and we know you hate the Tories, so you need to vote for us'. 'The trouble is that they are now in government – and the truth is one of the key messages of the 2024 election was that being in government sucks.' Curtice added: 'Then essentially the whole of the Scottish revival for Labour that began actually with Partygate, continued with Liz Truss, much like the case south of the border, and only latterly was to do with the difficulties of the SNP. All of that has gone.' In Scotland, the University of Strathclyde professor said that Reform's support was not as strong as south of the border because the party's vote is 'heavily embedded in those who voted Leave'. Scotland voted to Remain in the EU in the 2016 referendum by 62% to 38%. However, Curtice said that Reform and Labour were both running at around one-fifth of the Scottish vote, adding that Farage's party, 'if they can run at that kind of level on the regional list vote, they will have a significant presence in the Holyrood chamber'. File photo of polling expert Professor John Curtice (Image: BBC) 'There are various possibilities at this point, and this is why the election's still a knife edge,' the polling expert went on. 'It's still possible, because of the way in which the electoral system operates and because the SNP – although they're only at 33%, are currently something like 14-15 points over everybody else – could get so much in terms of the constituency seats that we might still just get a pro-independence majority at Holyrood, and that matters, by the way, for the future of politics. 'But equally, it's also perfectly possible that we will get an SNP government that looks much closer to the one of 2007 to 2011 in terms of its position in the parliament. 'But of course the crucial difference between now and then is that there is no prospect of Russell Findlay being the person who keeps the SNP minority government going, which is what Annabel Goldie did between 2007 and 2011. 'So I think therefore managing that parliament could be – you talked earlier on about the SNP will still be in power. Well, they might still be in office. I think what's still at stake in this election is whether the SNP will still be in power.'
The National
4 days ago
- Business
- The National
Here's what we learned from John Curtice's new polling report
It comes in response to figures in a new report penned by Professor John Curtice and published by the National Centre for Social Research as part of the latest British Social Attitudes survey, released on Wednesday. Curtice's report, titled Repairing Britain, found that almost two-thirds of the public (63%) were likely to vote to rejoin the European Union in a second referendum. When the public are given more than a binary option, Curtice reported that 'only 21% say that the UK should be outside the EU, the lowest proportion to do so since 2008'. READ MORE: Pressure piles on Anas Sarwar as 10th Scottish Labour MP joins rebellion The polling expert further reported that the 'latest survey shows that as many as 69% believe that the economy is worse off as a result of Brexit, well up on the 40% who anticipated such an outcome in 2015'. He noted that Labour were aiming to win over pro-Brexit voters who had backed Boris Johnson in the 2019 General Election, but added: 'However, Labour's support came overwhelmingly from those who say they would vote to rejoin the EU.' Elsewhere, a majority of the UK public (61%) said they believed that the tax burden on people with low incomes was 'too high', up nine points on 2016. Conversely, a plurality (44%) said that the tax burden on the UK's highest earners was too low, up ten points on 2016. Only one in 10 UK adults support spending less on disability benefits (Image: PA) The report also said that, by 45% to 11%, people think the UK Government should spend more – not less – on disability benefits. However, the support for spending more is at a 'record low', down 22 points on 2017. The Labour Government is currently facing down the biggest rebellion of Prime Minister Keir Starmer's leadership, with more than 100 MPs opposing plans to cut disability benefit spending by £5 billion per year. Elsewhere, the report found: A record 26% of people say they are struggling to live on their current income, up from 16% before the pandemic. Satisfaction with the health service has plummeted in the wake of the pandemic. A record 59% are now dissatisfied with the NHS, compared with just 25% in 2019. In total, 40% of people now support increasing taxes and spending more on health, education, and social benefits, down from 55% in early 2023. However, this is still above the 31% support reported in 2010, when taxes were a lower proportion of GDP than currently. 58% of those who voted Labour in 2024 are in favour of increasing taxes to spend more on health, education and social benefits. 'NIMBYism' is on the rise: the proportion of people who support building more homes in their local area has fallen from 57% in 2018 to 41%. Conversely, 32% are opposed, up from 23% over the same period. SNP MSP Clare Adamson said: "This report shows what we all already know – that Britain is broken beyond repair. "Whether it's on EU membership, taxation, or cuts to welfare, the UK Government and the rest of the political bubble is totally out of step with voters. "What Scotland really needs isn't a change of Government in Edinburgh or London – it's a full change of the system with independence." Scottish Green co-leader Patrick Harvie also took aim at Labour over Brexit, saying there was 'no question' that leaving the EU had contributed to 'higher bills, poorer services, and a struggling economy'. READ MORE: Jonathon Shafi: West's imperial arrogance takes propaganda to farcical levels 'It's no surprise that an overwhelming majority across the UK now support rejoining the EU,' he went on. 'Yet despite this, Labour refuses to acknowledge the harm it's done and begin taking the urgent action we need to reverse it. 'Like on so many issues, whether it be immigration, tax or Brexit, they ignore the public and the good of the country in order to pander to a small number of right-wing newspapers and Reform voters.' The campaign group Yes for EU said the high support for rejoining the EU was 'no surprise', with a spokesperson adding: 'What is surprising, indeed scandalous, is that the UK Labour Government continues to reject calls to rejoin.' Scottish Green MSP Ross Greer further hit out at Labour over taxation, calling for a more progressive UK system. 'Labour claim there isn't enough money to end cruel policies like the two-child benefit cap and rape clause, yet in the recently published Rich List we saw that the top 1% increase their net worth yet again,' he said. 'Working and middle class people are struggling with the cost of living, but super-rich elites are doing better than ever. Scottish Green MSP Ross Greer (Image: NQ) 'Keir Starmer was elected on a commitment to end at least one tax avoidance loophole enjoyed by some of these billionaires, but he dropped that as soon as he got the keys to Downing Street and instead he is slashing the support provided to disabled people to 'balance the books'.' Curtice, a senior research fellow at the National Centre for Social Research, said: 'The public are well aware of Britain's problems – not least those of a failing health service and an economy in which many are struggling to make ends meet. Yet rather than turning their back on the state, for the most part, the public are still inclined to look to government to provide solutions. And while they feel that most people on low and middle incomes are already paying enough tax, they suspect that some of the better off could pay more. 'As a result, while voters have perhaps now begun to react against the marked increase in the size of the state during the last Parliament, that reaction is still, it seems, relatively muted – and especially so among those who voted Labour. READ MORE: Tommy Sheppard: SNP must woo voters to turn our indy hopes into reality 'Yet this does not mean that voters are necessarily ready to back the various remedies that Labour have been offering to overcome the country's difficulties. They are not necessarily prepared to embrace a dash for more infrastructure building, including perhaps not least anything that appears in their own backyard. 'Tightening up on disability benefits is potentially controversial too, as the government has already discovered. 'The political difficulty with these policies is there are potentially identifiable winners and losers, and it is often the losers who shout the loudest. Pursuing economic growth rather than tax rises as the route out of fiscal constraint will not necessarily be the easier path for Labour to tread.'
North Wales Chronicle
12-06-2025
- Business
- North Wales Chronicle
Council tax bills set to rise at fastest rate for two decades, economist warns
Paul Johnson said that local government in England did 'perhaps a little bit better than it might have expected' out of the Chancellor's statement on Wednesday, but the 'sting in the tail' is the assumption that 'council tax bills will rise by 5% a year' as part of the funding. The core spending power of councils is set to increase by 2.6% a year from next year, and 'if English councils do choose 5% increases – and most almost certainly will – council tax bills look set to rise at their fastest rate over any parliament since 2001-05', Mr Johnson said on Thursday. On Wednesday, Ms Reeves said that ministers will not be 'going above' the 5% annual increases in council tax. She told ITV: 'The previous government increased council tax by 5% a year, and we have stuck to that. We won't be going above that. 'That is the council tax policy that we inherited from the previous government, and that we will be continuing.' The biggest winner from Wednesday's statement was the NHS, which will see its budget rise by £29 billion per year in real terms. Ruth Curtice, the chief executive of the Resolution Foundation, has said that Britain is turning into a 'National Health State'. Overnight, the think tank said Ms Reeves' announcements had followed a recent trend that saw increases for the NHS come at the expense of other public services. Ms Curtice said: 'Health accounted for 90% of the extra public service spending, continuing a trend that is seeing the British state morph into a National Health State, with half of public service spending set to be on health by the end of the decade.' Defence was another of Wednesday's winners, Ms Curtice said, receiving a significant increase in capital spending while other departments saw an overall £3.6 billion real-terms cut in investment. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) made similar arguments about 'substantial' investment in the NHS and defence coming at the expense of other departments, although Mr Johnson warned on Wednesday the money may not be enough. In his snap reaction to the review, Mr Johnson said: 'Aiming to get back to meeting the NHS 18-week target for hospital waiting times within this Parliament is enormously ambitious – an NHS funding settlement below the long-run average might not measure up. 'And on defence, it's entirely possible that an increase in the Nato spending target will mean that maintaining defence spending at 2.6% of GDP no longer cuts the mustard.' Ms Curtice added that low and middle-income families had also done well out of the spending review 'after two rounds of painful tax rises and welfare cuts', with the poorest fifth of families benefiting from an average of £1,700 in extra spending on schools, hospitals and the police. She warned that, without economic growth, another round of tax rises was likely to come in the autumn as the Chancellor seeks to balance the books. She said: 'The extra money in this spending review has already been accounted for in the last forecast. 'But a weaker economic outlook and the unfunded changes to winter fuel payments mean the Chancellor will likely need to look again at tax rises in the autumn.' Speaking after delivering her spending review, Ms Reeves insisted she would not have to raise taxes to cover her spending review. She told GB News: 'Every penny of this is funded through the tax increases and the changes to the fiscal rules that we set out last autumn.' Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch described rising health spending as a 'conundrum', with a similar approach having been taken 'again and again' as she spoke at a business conference in central London on Thursday morning. In reference to a pro-Brexit campaign stunt, Mrs Badenoch said: 'I mean, who remembers the side of a red bus that said 'we're going to give the NHS £350 million more a week'? 'Many people don't know that we did that. We did do that, and yet, still we're not seeing the returns. 'We've put more and more money in, and we're getting less and less out.' The Government have not explained how and why the NHS will be better as a result of its spending plans, the Tory leader added, and claimed the public know 'we need to start talking about productivity reforms, public sector reforms'.
South Wales Guardian
12-06-2025
- Business
- South Wales Guardian
Council tax bills set to rise at fastest rate for two decades, economist warns
Paul Johnson said that local government in England did 'perhaps a little bit better than it might have expected' out of the Chancellor's statement on Wednesday, but the 'sting in the tail' is the assumption that 'council tax bills will rise by 5% a year' as part of the funding. The core spending power of councils is set to increase by 2.6% a year from next year, and 'if English councils do choose 5% increases – and most almost certainly will – council tax bills look set to rise at their fastest rate over any parliament since 2001-05', Mr Johnson said on Thursday. On Wednesday, Ms Reeves said that ministers will not be 'going above' the 5% annual increases in council tax. She told ITV: 'The previous government increased council tax by 5% a year, and we have stuck to that. We won't be going above that. 'That is the council tax policy that we inherited from the previous government, and that we will be continuing.' The biggest winner from Wednesday's statement was the NHS, which will see its budget rise by £29 billion per year in real terms. Ruth Curtice, the chief executive of the Resolution Foundation, has said that Britain is turning into a 'National Health State'. Overnight, the think tank said Ms Reeves' announcements had followed a recent trend that saw increases for the NHS come at the expense of other public services. Ms Curtice said: 'Health accounted for 90% of the extra public service spending, continuing a trend that is seeing the British state morph into a National Health State, with half of public service spending set to be on health by the end of the decade.' Defence was another of Wednesday's winners, Ms Curtice said, receiving a significant increase in capital spending while other departments saw an overall £3.6 billion real-terms cut in investment. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) made similar arguments about 'substantial' investment in the NHS and defence coming at the expense of other departments, although Mr Johnson warned on Wednesday the money may not be enough. In his snap reaction to the review, Mr Johnson said: 'Aiming to get back to meeting the NHS 18-week target for hospital waiting times within this Parliament is enormously ambitious – an NHS funding settlement below the long-run average might not measure up. 'And on defence, it's entirely possible that an increase in the Nato spending target will mean that maintaining defence spending at 2.6% of GDP no longer cuts the mustard.' Ms Curtice added that low and middle-income families had also done well out of the spending review 'after two rounds of painful tax rises and welfare cuts', with the poorest fifth of families benefiting from an average of £1,700 in extra spending on schools, hospitals and the police. She warned that, without economic growth, another round of tax rises was likely to come in the autumn as the Chancellor seeks to balance the books. She said: 'The extra money in this spending review has already been accounted for in the last forecast. 'But a weaker economic outlook and the unfunded changes to winter fuel payments mean the Chancellor will likely need to look again at tax rises in the autumn.' Speaking after delivering her spending review, Ms Reeves insisted she would not have to raise taxes to cover her spending review. She told GB News: 'Every penny of this is funded through the tax increases and the changes to the fiscal rules that we set out last autumn.' Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch described rising health spending as a 'conundrum', with a similar approach having been taken 'again and again' as she spoke at a business conference in central London on Thursday morning. In reference to a pro-Brexit campaign stunt, Mrs Badenoch said: 'I mean, who remembers the side of a red bus that said 'we're going to give the NHS £350 million more a week'? 'Many people don't know that we did that. We did do that, and yet, still we're not seeing the returns. 'We've put more and more money in, and we're getting less and less out.' The Government have not explained how and why the NHS will be better as a result of its spending plans, the Tory leader added, and claimed the public know 'we need to start talking about productivity reforms, public sector reforms'.
Rhyl Journal
12-06-2025
- Business
- Rhyl Journal
Council tax bills set to rise at fastest rate for two decades, economist warns
Paul Johnson said that local government in England did 'perhaps a little bit better than it might have expected' out of the Chancellor's statement on Wednesday, but the 'sting in the tail' is the assumption that 'council tax bills will rise by 5% a year' as part of the funding. The core spending power of councils is set to increase by 2.6% a year from next year, and 'if English councils do choose 5% increases – and most almost certainly will – council tax bills look set to rise at their fastest rate over any parliament since 2001-05', Mr Johnson said on Thursday. On Wednesday, Ms Reeves said that ministers will not be 'going above' the 5% annual increases in council tax. She told ITV: 'The previous government increased council tax by 5% a year, and we have stuck to that. We won't be going above that. 'That is the council tax policy that we inherited from the previous government, and that we will be continuing.' The biggest winner from Wednesday's statement was the NHS, which will see its budget rise by £29 billion per year in real terms. Ruth Curtice, the chief executive of the Resolution Foundation, has said that Britain is turning into a 'National Health State'. Overnight, the think tank said Ms Reeves' announcements had followed a recent trend that saw increases for the NHS come at the expense of other public services. Ms Curtice said: 'Health accounted for 90% of the extra public service spending, continuing a trend that is seeing the British state morph into a National Health State, with half of public service spending set to be on health by the end of the decade.' Defence was another of Wednesday's winners, Ms Curtice said, receiving a significant increase in capital spending while other departments saw an overall £3.6 billion real-terms cut in investment. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) made similar arguments about 'substantial' investment in the NHS and defence coming at the expense of other departments, although Mr Johnson warned on Wednesday the money may not be enough. In his snap reaction to the review, Mr Johnson said: 'Aiming to get back to meeting the NHS 18-week target for hospital waiting times within this Parliament is enormously ambitious – an NHS funding settlement below the long-run average might not measure up. 'And on defence, it's entirely possible that an increase in the Nato spending target will mean that maintaining defence spending at 2.6% of GDP no longer cuts the mustard.' Ms Curtice added that low and middle-income families had also done well out of the spending review 'after two rounds of painful tax rises and welfare cuts', with the poorest fifth of families benefiting from an average of £1,700 in extra spending on schools, hospitals and the police. She warned that, without economic growth, another round of tax rises was likely to come in the autumn as the Chancellor seeks to balance the books. She said: 'The extra money in this spending review has already been accounted for in the last forecast. 'But a weaker economic outlook and the unfunded changes to winter fuel payments mean the Chancellor will likely need to look again at tax rises in the autumn.' Speaking after delivering her spending review, Ms Reeves insisted she would not have to raise taxes to cover her spending review. She told GB News: 'Every penny of this is funded through the tax increases and the changes to the fiscal rules that we set out last autumn.' Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch described rising health spending as a 'conundrum', with a similar approach having been taken 'again and again' as she spoke at a business conference in central London on Thursday morning. In reference to a pro-Brexit campaign stunt, Mrs Badenoch said: 'I mean, who remembers the side of a red bus that said 'we're going to give the NHS £350 million more a week'? 'Many people don't know that we did that. We did do that, and yet, still we're not seeing the returns. 'We've put more and more money in, and we're getting less and less out.' The Government have not explained how and why the NHS will be better as a result of its spending plans, the Tory leader added, and claimed the public know 'we need to start talking about productivity reforms, public sector reforms'.
