Latest news with #DamianHinds
The Independent
5 days ago
- Politics
- The Independent
Pupil numbers in schools expected to drop by nearly 400,000 over five years
The number of pupils in state schools in England is expected to decline by nearly 400,000 by 2030 amid falling birth rates, Government figures suggest. The population attending primary and nursery schools is expected to drop at a 'faster rate' than previously projected over the next five years, according to the Department for Education (DfE). It comes as primary schools in parts of England, including London, have been considering closing due to falling pupil numbers and funding pressures. The latest DfE projections, published on Thursday, suggest that 4,205,117 pupils will be in state nursery and primary schools by 2030 – a fall of 300,000 from the population in 2025. Meanwhile, 3,135,086 pupils are projected to be in state secondary schools in 2030 – which is 97,000 lower than the actual school population in 2025. A population bulge in England has been moving into secondary schools, but the DfE said it now expects these pupil numbers to peak in 2026/2027. Last month, a former education secretary called for school funding to no longer be judged on a per-pupil basis because of falling pupil numbers. Conservative MP Damian Hinds said the decline in the number of children in schools meant funding being measured on a per-pupil basis was no longer a good reflection of whether funding is increasing or decreasing. Paul Whiteman, general secretary at school leaders' union NAHT, said: 'Falling rolls can create a real headache for schools already struggling amid severe financial pressures because the majority of funding is calculated on a per-pupil basis. 'It will be vital that the Department for Education protects schools that are particularly affected by this as it has a disproportionate impact on budgets, particularly for small schools. 'There are always significant variations between different parts of the country, individual schools and even year groups and other recent data forecast the number of school places planned for 2026/27 will need to double to meet demand. 'Trends can also change over time. Rather than reducing funding, we would urge the Government to continue to invest in schools, allowing them to maintain existing staffing levels. 'This would help reduce the unsustainable levels of workload which are fuelling a recruitment and retention crisis, also enabling some schools to offer smaller classes and more targeted help for pupils who need it.' Daniel Kebede, general secretary of the National Education Union (NEU), said: 'The forecast that there will be almost 400,000 fewer pupils in schools by 2030 will understandably cause concern among parents and educators about implications for their schools. 'However, it is not a given that falling pupil numbers means widespread school closures.' He added: 'Using falling rolls to reduce class sizes would improve schools for pupils and staff, helping reduce workload and improve teacher retention, allowing more contact time with each pupil to improve educational outcomes and allowing for greater integration of pupils with Send into mainstream classrooms. 'Schools with 30 pupils per class cost the same amount to run as schools with fewer per class, but the current funding model allocates money to schools on a per-pupil basis, leaving those with smaller classes out of pocket. 'To take advantage of the slowing birthrate and improved outcomes, the Government must protect schools with falling rolls from funding shortfalls and avoid schools in this situation making cuts that harm educational provision.'
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
Pupil numbers in schools expected to drop by nearly 400,000 over five years
The number of pupils in state schools in England is expected to decline by nearly 400,000 by 2030 amid falling birth rates, Government figures suggest. The population attending primary and nursery schools is expected to drop at a 'faster rate' than previously projected over the next five years, according to the Department for Education (DfE). It comes as primary schools in parts of England, including London, have been considering closing due to falling pupil numbers and funding pressures. The latest DfE projections, published on Thursday, suggest that 4,205,117 pupils will be in state nursery and primary schools by 2030 – a fall of 300,000 from the population in 2025. Meanwhile, 3,135,086 pupils are projected to be in state secondary schools in 2030 – which is 97,000 lower than the actual school population in 2025. A population bulge in England has been moving into secondary schools, but the DfE said it now expects these pupil numbers to peak in 2026/2027. Last month, a former education secretary called for school funding to no longer be judged on a per-pupil basis because of falling pupil numbers. Conservative MP Damian Hinds said the decline in the number of children in schools meant funding being measured on a per-pupil basis was no longer a good reflection of whether funding is increasing or decreasing. Paul Whiteman, general secretary at school leaders' union NAHT, said: 'Falling rolls can create a real headache for schools already struggling amid severe financial pressures because the majority of funding is calculated on a per-pupil basis. 'It will be vital that the Department for Education protects schools that are particularly affected by this as it has a disproportionate impact on budgets, particularly for small schools. 'There are always significant variations between different parts of the country, individual schools and even year groups and other recent data forecast the number of school places planned for 2026/27 will need to double to meet demand. 'Trends can also change over time. Rather than reducing funding, we would urge the Government to continue to invest in schools, allowing them to maintain existing staffing levels. 'This would help reduce the unsustainable levels of workload which are fuelling a recruitment and retention crisis, also enabling some schools to offer smaller classes and more targeted help for pupils who need it.' Daniel Kebede, general secretary of the National Education Union (NEU), said: 'The forecast that there will be almost 400,000 fewer pupils in schools by 2030 will understandably cause concern among parents and educators about implications for their schools. 'However, it is not a given that falling pupil numbers means widespread school closures.' He added: 'Using falling rolls to reduce class sizes would improve schools for pupils and staff, helping reduce workload and improve teacher retention, allowing more contact time with each pupil to improve educational outcomes and allowing for greater integration of pupils with Send into mainstream classrooms. 'Schools with 30 pupils per class cost the same amount to run as schools with fewer per class, but the current funding model allocates money to schools on a per-pupil basis, leaving those with smaller classes out of pocket. 'To take advantage of the slowing birthrate and improved outcomes, the Government must protect schools with falling rolls from funding shortfalls and avoid schools in this situation making cuts that harm educational provision.'
The Independent
24-06-2025
- Politics
- The Independent
Change measurement of school funding amid falling pupil numbers – ex-minister
School funding should no longer be judged on a per-pupil basis because of falling birth rates and pupil numbers, a former education secretary has said. Conservative MP Damian Hinds said the decline in the number of children in primary and secondary schools meant funding being measured on a per-pupil basis was no longer a good reflection of whether funding is increasing or decreasing. Mr Hinds said: 'Things are changing very significantly now in schools because of demographic change, and we have reached a point where I do not believe it is legitimate to use the measure of real terms per pupil as the yardstick for whether effective school resourcing is increasing or decreasing, and that is because the number of pupils is going to fall. 'We know already from the Times Educational Supplement that surplus secondary places have increased by some 50% in just two years. 'Now Labour MPs may well argue this, and I hope they do, and they will say 'obviously when you've got a smaller number of children there's going to be less funding', and there is of course some logic to that argument. 'But in a sense, it doesn't really matter what arguments Labour MPs make in this chamber, because back in their constituencies talking to head teachers they will hear something different. 'When pupil numbers are rising, if you hold real-terms per-pupil funding constant, that is a net increase in resourcing to the school. 'When they're falling, even if you increase real terms per pupil by a few percent that feels very much like a cut.' He used the analogy of a school class falling by two pupils from 29 to 27, it being equivalent to about £10,000 less in funding. 'The vast majority of your costs don't change,' Mr Hinds said. 'You're still paying the teacher the same, and so on.' The problem comes amid falling birth rates in recent years, which have hit primary schools. The issue has been acutely faced in parts of the capital, where high living costs have exacerbated the issue. Meanwhile secondary school pupils born during the late 2000s and early 2010s baby boom will move out of the system in the coming years. Mr Hinds said schools in urban areas had already closed, with others on the horizon. He said some could convert into nursery schools, or special schools. Some larger schools have reduced the number of entries into each year. Primary schools in parts of London have shut in recent years due to falling pupil numbers. Camden, which includes Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer's Holborn and St Pancras constituency, has seen the shutting of schools while a secondary school has reduced the number of pupils it expects to take in each year. Earlier this month data from the Government showed pupil rolls in England had fallen for the first time in more than a decade. Primary pupil numbers have been falling for several years; however, they have been balanced out by secondary school pupils born in the baby boom in the late 2000s and early 2010s. Other figures from the Department for Education (DfE) reported there were 611,000 unfilled primary places for 2023-2024, a 5.8% increase on the year before. Mr Hinds told the House of Commons that the problem could be felt just as sharply outside of towns and cities, saying: 'In a rural primary school neither of those things is an option. 'You have major, major indivisibilities. 'And right now, 92% of DfE funding for schools is driven by pupil numbers, and I just don't think that is going to work over the years ahead. 'So I ask ministers, what are you going to do to reform funding, so it is fair and effective at a time of falling overall pupil numbers.' Responding to the estimates day debate, education minister Catherine McKinnell said: 'This Government has – as Labour governments always do – prioritised education with the department's budget for day-to-day cash spending, increasing by almost £6 billion compared to last financial year, and within that, we have increased the overall core schools budget by £3.7 billion in 2025/26 compared to last year. 'This real-terms per-pupil increase in funding helps to underpin our ambition of achieving high and rising standards for all children in all of our schools.'
Powys County Times
24-06-2025
- Politics
- Powys County Times
Change measurement of school funding amid falling pupil numbers – ex-minister
School funding should no longer be judged on a per-pupil basis because of falling birth rates and pupil numbers, a former education secretary has said. Conservative MP Damian Hinds said the decline in the number of children in primary and secondary schools meant funding being measured on a per-pupil basis was no longer a good reflection of whether funding is increasing or decreasing. Mr Hinds said: 'Things are changing very significantly now in schools because of demographic change, and we have reached a point where I do not believe it is legitimate to use the measure of real terms per pupil as the yardstick for whether effective school resourcing is increasing or decreasing, and that is because the number of pupils is going to fall. 'We know already from the Times Educational Supplement that surplus secondary places have increased by some 50% in just two years. 'Now Labour MPs may well argue this, and I hope they do, and they will say 'obviously when you've got a smaller number of children there's going to be less funding', and there is of course some logic to that argument. 'But in a sense, it doesn't really matter what arguments Labour MPs make in this chamber, because back in their constituencies talking to head teachers they will hear something different. 'When pupil numbers are rising, if you hold real-terms per-pupil funding constant, that is a net increase in resourcing to the school. 'When they're falling, even if you increase real terms per pupil by a few percent that feels very much like a cut.' He used the analogy of a school class falling by two pupils from 29 to 27, it being equivalent to about £10,000 less in funding. 'The vast majority of your costs don't change,' Mr Hinds said. 'You're still paying the teacher the same, and so on.' The problem comes amid falling birth rates in recent years, which have hit primary schools. The issue has been acutely faced in parts of the capital, where high living costs have exacerbated the issue. Meanwhile secondary school pupils born during the late 2000s and early 2010s baby boom will move out of the system in the coming years. Mr Hinds said schools in urban areas had already closed, with others on the horizon. He said some could convert into nursery schools, or special schools. Some larger schools have reduced the number of entries into each year. Primary schools in parts of London have shut in recent years due to falling pupil numbers. Camden, which includes Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer's Holborn and St Pancras constituency, has seen the shutting of schools while a secondary school has reduced the number of pupils it expects to take in each year. Earlier this month data from the Government showed pupil rolls in England had fallen for the first time in more than a decade. Primary pupil numbers have been falling for several years; however, they have been balanced out by secondary school pupils born in the baby boom in the late 2000s and early 2010s. Other figures from the Department for Education (DfE) reported there were 611,000 unfilled primary places for 2023-2024, a 5.8% increase on the year before. Mr Hinds told the House of Commons that the problem could be felt just as sharply outside of towns and cities, saying: 'In a rural primary school neither of those things is an option. 'You have major, major indivisibilities. 'And right now, 92% of DfE funding for schools is driven by pupil numbers, and I just don't think that is going to work over the years ahead. 'So I ask ministers, what are you going to do to reform funding, so it is fair and effective at a time of falling overall pupil numbers.' Responding to the estimates day debate, education minister Catherine McKinnell said: 'This Government has – as Labour governments always do – prioritised education with the department's budget for day-to-day cash spending, increasing by almost £6 billion compared to last financial year, and within that, we have increased the overall core schools budget by £3.7 billion in 2025/26 compared to last year. 'This real-terms per-pupil increase in funding helps to underpin our ambition of achieving high and rising standards for all children in all of our schools.'
The Independent
03-03-2025
- Business
- The Independent
Labour MP: VAT charge on private schools could make elitist system more elitist
The amount of VAT imposed on private schools should be based on turnover, to prevent smaller schools getting 'caught in this trap', a Labour MP has said. Rupa Huq raised concerns the Government's policy to apply 20% VAT to private school education and boarding fees could make an 'elitist system more elitist'. The policy, which came into effect earlier this year, is aimed at raising money to fund state schools. During a debate on the VAT changes, Ms Huq, who attended a private high school, said parents with 'genuine concerns' should not be demonised. Speaking in Westminster Hall, the MP for Ealing Central and Acton said: 'As a parent, I would never dream of going private, but I can understand and accept that people do do this.' She added: 'I can completely appreciate that people like my own parents at the time, make – and (Labour MP Alison Taylor) mentioned this as well – enormous sacrifices to send their children there. 'And I've heard this on the doorstep, you know 'we have the worst car, we never go on holiday', that was me in the 80s.' She continued: 'These are people who consider themselves working people, so again, the strap line of the Labour manifesto was no taxes on working people. So I think we should be careful with our rhetoric sometimes.' Ms Huq went on to say: 'The problem is the word private school implies a whole load of things, they are not all Eton. And some of the comms around this I think hasn't been done very sensitively.' Get a free fractional share worth up to £100. Capital at risk. Terms and conditions apply. 'You get your smaller Send school, you get your smaller faith school, those kind of people, they're not all Eton is what I'm trying to say, and I think some of these comms are based on a caricature.' Ms Huq said there could be 'unintended consequence' from the change and the policy will 'hand schools like Eton money back from Treasury coffers'. She added: 'These elitist private schools, Eton, they've actually done quite well out of this, because they can cash in on windfalls from these new VAT rules.' Intervening, Conservative MP for Windsor Jack Rankin, who has Eton in his constituency, said some of the points on Eton were 'a little bit unfair' because they 'do a lot in my community'. Ms Huq replied: 'It's interesting to learn that, but they are still are going to be quids-in after this.' Also intervening, Liberal Democrat MP Rachel Gilmour (Tiverton and Minehead) said: 'Will you give it up all this stuff about Eton? I speak as the mother of two old Etonians. 'I was a single parent, I worked three jobs. When (Damian Hinds) said there's more money from the old Etonian parents, there certainly aren't, not from this one. 'Eton hands out 100 boys plus a year completely free fees, they don't even have to pay for their pencils.' Earlier in the debate, Conservative former minister Damian Hinds said 'there is probably plenty of VAT to be had from the parents of boys at Eton' but the Government has 'ignored' the concerns of low-fee faith schools or schools for children with special educational needs and disabilities. Ms Huq later said: 'My worry is it will just make an elitist system more elitist.' Intervening, Conservative MP Gagan Mohindra (South West Hertfordshire) said: 'What does she expect her Government and party to do then?' Ms Huq replied: 'What I would suggest is possibly doing it on a turnover basis. So for your enormous schools that can afford it: yes. But then for the smaller ones that have been caught in this trap: no.' Treasury minister Torsten Bell said: 'No one during this session is judging other parents' choices … the best education for children is also what motivates the Government to break down barriers to opportunity, ensuring every child has access to high-quality education. 'Every child includes the 94% of children that attend state schools. The reforms we debate today, to VAT and business rates, will raise around £1.8 billion a year.' Mr Bell said the argument that private faith schools should be exempt is 'not compelling'. He added: 'An exemption would reduce the revenue available for pupils in state schools, including those of faith.'
