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Time of India
02-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Global oil surplus seen at 1.2 million b/d in H2 2025; Brent forecast at $50-60/bbl: S&P Global
New Delhi: Global oil supply is expected to exceed demand by 1.2 million barrels per day (b/d) in the second half of 2025, while annual demand growth is projected to be the weakest since 2001—excluding crisis years—at 870,000 b/d, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights . The energy research firm also forecasts a surplus of 800,000 b/d for the full year 2026, driven by rising output from OPEC+ countries and continued weak demand. 'The underlying fundamentals of the global oil market remain profoundly unchanged. OPEC+ members are continuing with the accelerated unwinding of production cuts. There will be more oil supply coming from the Middle East in July. Meanwhile, global demand growth remains weak. In other words, there is plenty of oil available,' said Jim Burkhard, Vice President and Global Head of Crude Oil Research, S&P Global Commodity Insights. According to the report, base case projections for Dated Brent crude oil prices are in the $50–60 per barrel range for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices are expected to range between the upper $40s and upper $50s. S&P Global expects the United States to register its first year-on-year oil production decline in nearly a decade. Total U.S. crude oil and condensate output, including offshore production, is forecast to decline by 600,000 b/d from mid-2025 to end-2026. 'The price of oil and Wall Street remain the de facto regulators of U.S. crude production. The onset of conflict in Iran briefly injected a fear premium into oil prices, and fresh uncertainties do remain. But the fundamentals are the fundamentals, and the oil price trend remains the same—downward,' Burkhard added. OPEC+ countries have begun to visibly increase production in line with plans to accelerate the unwinding of earlier cuts. As of mid-June, Saudi Arabia's crude and condensate exports had increased by nearly 700,000 b/d, reaching levels aligned with its monthly target. The report notes that the Persian Gulf region still holds over 4 million b/d of spare production capacity. It also points to the uncertain possibility of additional Iranian supply coming to market if the ceasefire holds and sanctions are lifted or eased. 'A year or more into the future, could a focal point in the market be how much Iran could increase production rather than attempting to close the Strait of Hormuz or damage oil infrastructure in other countries? Perhaps. In the meantime, expect more oil supply from the Middle East, regardless,' said Ian Stewart, Associate Director at S&P Global Commodity Insights. Despite the recent conflict and ceasefire between Israel and Iran, S&P Global noted that the trajectory of global oil markets remains unchanged, with supply expected to continue outpacing demand and price trends pointing downward.
Business Wire
24-06-2025
- Business
- Business Wire
EPIC Crude's Strategic Position in the Premium Corpus Christi Market Continues to Advance
HOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--EPIC Crude Holdings, LP ('EPIC Crude' or 'the Company') is excited that the Port of Corpus Christi has finalized their significant four-phase Channel Improvement Project ('CIP Project') that began in 2017. The CIP Project deepened the channel from 47 to 54 feet and widened the channel to 530 feet from 400 feet, all centered on accommodating the growing demand for larger vessels. The CIP Project was focused on expanding the waterways for larger vessels and two-way traffic while reducing overall transportation costs. This will allow the Port of Corpus Christi to enable more efficient transport of crude oil, liquefied natural gas and other commodities given its focus on exporting hydrocarbons. EPIC Crude is strategically positioned in Corpus Christi with its ability to access the two market-leading VLCC capable export facilities as well as local refineries and other export docks. EPIC Crude's goal is to provide its crude transportation customers with the greatest optionality for end market delivery in the most economic market, Corpus Christi. Customers recognize EPIC Crude's differentiated strategy of providing equal access to all markets and premier docks in Corpus Christi and Ingleside, providing access to the Dated Brent market through the EPIC dock, and providing an opportunity to economically expand the pipeline to provide additional take-away capacity out of the Permian to the premium Corpus Christi market. 'Our long-term partnership with the Port of Corpus Christi has been tremendous given their focus on creating the premier energy export facility in the U.S.," said Brian Freed, Chief Executive Officer of EPIC. 'The results of this work can be seen through our business success with EPIC Crude transporting more than 600,000 MBpd to the Corpus Christi market. At the end of the day, we are focused on providing safe and reliable crude oil transport out of the Delaware, Midland and Eagle Ford basins into the Corpus Christi market.' About EPIC Crude Holdings, LP EPIC Crude Holdings, LP ('EPIC Crude') was formed in 2017 to build and operate the EPIC Crude Oil Pipeline, a 700-mile, 30' crude oil pipeline that extends from Orla, Texas to the Port of Corpus Christi and services the Midland, Delaware and Eagle Ford basins. The Crude Oil Pipeline is currently operating at a capacity of greater than 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) and has a maximum capacity of 1,000,000 bpd, as well as total operational storage of approximately 6,800,000 barrels. EPIC Crude includes terminals in Orla, Pecos, Saragosa, Crane, Wink, Midland, Helena and Gardendale, with Port of Corpus Christi connectivity and export access. EPIC Crude is a portfolio company of funds managed by the Private Equity Group of Ares Management as well as additional equity ownership by Kinetik Holdings Inc. (NYSE: KNTK) and Diamondback Energy (NASDAQ: FANG). For more information, visit
Time of India
15-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Oil jumps to $75.19/b after Israeli strikes on Iran, Israeli gas exports to Egypt and Jordan suspended
New Delhi: Israel's airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites have pushed Brent crude oil prices to a two-month high of $75.19 per barrel and disrupted regional natural gas exports , raising concerns over energy market volatility and potential supply disruption. According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, Dated Brent rose sharply on June 13, recording the biggest single-day gain in nearly five years. Middle East sour crudes also saw significant movement, with Platts assessing front-month cash Dubai at $72.50/b, a 5.7 per cent increase from the previous day. Richard Joswick, head of near-term oil analysis at S&P Global Commodity Insights, said, 'The attack is obviously bullish near term for oil prices, but the key is whether oil exports will be affected. When Iran and Israel exchanged attacks last time, prices spiked, then fell once it was clear the situation wasn't escalating and oil supply was unaffected.' Iran produced 3.25 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude in May, according to the Platts OPEC Survey. It also holds around 2.2 million b/d of refining capacity and 600,000 b/d of condensate splitting capacity. However, its exports dipped below 1.5 million b/d in May amid rising tensions and an increase in floating storage levels. 'If Iranian crude exports are disrupted, Chinese refiners, the sole buyers of Iranian barrels, would need to seek alternative grades from other Middle Eastern countries and Russian crudes,' Joswick said. 'This could also boost freight rates and tanker insurance premiums, narrow the Brent-Dubai spread, and hurt refinery margins, particularly in Asia.' Gas production suspensions affect regional supplies Israel's Ministry of Energy confirmed temporary shutdowns at the Leviathan and Karish gas platforms. These facilities account for around 1.8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of production and supply 1.2 Bcf/d of pipeline gas exports to Egypt and Jordan, all of which have been suspended. Laurent Ruseckas, Executive Director at S&P Global Commodity Insights, said, 'The shutdowns are bullish for LNG prices, initially on sentiment, and possibly more if they persist. Egypt and Jordan will need to replace Israeli imports, and that could quickly build demand for LNG cargoes.' Egypt's floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU), Hoegh Galleon at Ain Sokhna, is already operating at full capacity. Two other FSRUs—Energos Eskimo and Energos Power—are offline for maintenance. Ruseckas stated that if the additional units are not brought online swiftly, Egypt and Jordan may have to use fuel oil or enforce gas rationing. 'To fully replace Israeli pipeline imports, Egypt and Jordan would require another 10–12 LNG cargoes per month,' he added. Geopolitical concerns and shipping disruption risks Analysts from S&P Global Commodity Insights noted that the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20 per cent of global LNG trade passes, remains a critical vulnerability. Any potential retaliation from Iran involving maritime routes could impact global energy flows. 'There is a risk to LNG supply if Iran retaliates by threatening shipping through the Strait of Hormuz,' the analysts stated. Platts tanker tracking data shows Red Sea commercial transits have already declined by 60 per cent since late 2023 due to Houthi-related disruptions. Although freight rates for Red Sea routes have remained stable, an escalation could reverse the trend. Joswick said, 'The longer-term impact on oil and gas markets will depend on whether the conflict escalates into a regional war or remains contained. Price risk premiums tend to fade unless actual supply is disrupted.' Markets continue to monitor developments closely as tensions in the Middle East affect energy trade flows and pricing dynamics.
Time of India
15-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Oil jumps to $75.19/b after Israeli strikes on Iran, Israeli gas exports to Egypt and Jordan suspended
New Delhi: Israel's airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites have pushed Brent crude oil prices to a two-month high of $75.19 per barrel and disrupted regional natural gas exports , raising concerns over energy market volatility and potential supply disruption. According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, Dated Brent rose sharply on June 13, recording the biggest single-day gain in nearly five years. Middle East sour crudes also saw significant movement, with Platts assessing front-month cash Dubai at $72.50/b, a 5.7 per cent increase from the previous day. Richard Joswick, head of near-term oil analysis at S&P Global Commodity Insights, said, 'The attack is obviously bullish near term for oil prices, but the key is whether oil exports will be affected. When Iran and Israel exchanged attacks last time, prices spiked, then fell once it was clear the situation wasn't escalating and oil supply was unaffected.' Iran produced 3.25 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude in May, according to the Platts OPEC Survey. It also holds around 2.2 million b/d of refining capacity and 600,000 b/d of condensate splitting capacity. However, its exports dipped below 1.5 million b/d in May amid rising tensions and an increase in floating storage levels. 'If Iranian crude exports are disrupted, Chinese refiners, the sole buyers of Iranian barrels, would need to seek alternative grades from other Middle Eastern countries and Russian crudes,' Joswick said. 'This could also boost freight rates and tanker insurance premiums, narrow the Brent-Dubai spread, and hurt refinery margins, particularly in Asia.' Gas production suspensions affect regional supplies Israel's Ministry of Energy confirmed temporary shutdowns at the Leviathan and Karish gas platforms. These facilities account for around 1.8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of production and supply 1.2 Bcf/d of pipeline gas exports to Egypt and Jordan, all of which have been suspended. Laurent Ruseckas, Executive Director at S&P Global Commodity Insights, said, 'The shutdowns are bullish for LNG prices, initially on sentiment, and possibly more if they persist. Egypt and Jordan will need to replace Israeli imports, and that could quickly build demand for LNG cargoes.' Egypt's floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU), Hoegh Galleon at Ain Sokhna, is already operating at full capacity. Two other FSRUs—Energos Eskimo and Energos Power—are offline for maintenance. Ruseckas stated that if the additional units are not brought online swiftly, Egypt and Jordan may have to use fuel oil or enforce gas rationing. 'To fully replace Israeli pipeline imports, Egypt and Jordan would require another 10–12 LNG cargoes per month,' he added. Geopolitical concerns and shipping disruption risks Analysts from S&P Global Commodity Insights noted that the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20 per cent of global LNG trade passes, remains a critical vulnerability. Any potential retaliation from Iran involving maritime routes could impact global energy flows. 'There is a risk to LNG supply if Iran retaliates by threatening shipping through the Strait of Hormuz,' the analysts stated. Platts tanker tracking data shows Red Sea commercial transits have already declined by 60 per cent since late 2023 due to Houthi-related disruptions. Although freight rates for Red Sea routes have remained stable, an escalation could reverse the trend. Joswick said, 'The longer-term impact on oil and gas markets will depend on whether the conflict escalates into a regional war or remains contained. Price risk premiums tend to fade unless actual supply is disrupted.' Markets continue to monitor developments closely as tensions in the Middle East affect energy trade flows and pricing dynamics.
India Gazette
11-06-2025
- Business
- India Gazette
US faces steeper crude oil production decline than previously anticipated: S&P Global Commodity Insights
New Delhi [India], June 11 (ANI): The US is facing a deceleration of crude oil production growth in 2025 than previously anticipated, according to a new analysis by S&P Global Commodity Insights. The global commodities information services provider projects a sharper year-on-year overall production decline in 2026 in the US than previously anticipated. The latest S&P Global Commodity Insights Global Crude Oil Markets Short-term Outlook finds that the US, which has been the biggest source of global supply growth in recent years, will be 'disproportionately impacted' by a combination of sluggish global oil demand growth and supply surplus. Following the most recent decision by OPEC+ members to proceed with the accelerated unwinding of production cuts, along with supply growth elsewhere, year-on-year global crude oil (and condensate) production growth is expected to be 2.2 million barrels per day for the second half of 2025, compared to just 390,000 barrels per day of expected crude oil demand growth. S&P Global Commodity Insights said that annual global total oil (liquids) demand growth for 2025 is expected to be the weakest since 2001, excluding the economic downturn during the 2008-09 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, averaging 770,000 barrels per day. The S&P report has revised down the crude oil price outlook, with Dated Brent ranging from the mid-USD 60s per barrel to USD 50 per barrel or below for a time (low USD 60-upper USD 40s for WTI). Jim Burkhard, Vice President and Global Head of Crude Oil Research, S&P Global Commodity Insights, states, 'The oil price is currently defenseless. Seasonal demand in the northern hemisphere summer may obscure the impact for a bit, but eventually there will be too much crude oil in the market absent a change in production trends.' The report asserted that the US is expected to bear the brunt of the impacts from an oversupplied market compared to other sources of non-OPEC supply, such as Canada, Guyana, and Brazil. 'The United States has been the biggest source of supply growth in recent years and a factor in OPEC+ supply restraint. Signs of weak U.S. crude supply growth and decline could begin to alter oil market psychology. However, much will still depend on the future course of OPEC+ production and oil demand,' said Ian Stewart, Associate Director, S&P Global Commodity Insights. (ANI)
