Latest news with #DeloitteCanada
CTV News
09-07-2025
- Business
- CTV News
OPEC looking to regain market share with oil production increases, expert says
Andrew Botterill, Energy, Resources & Industrials Partner at Deloitte Canada, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss Deloitte's energy, oil & gas price forecast.
Yahoo
08-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Canada's gas market 'about to turn the corner,' say analysts eyeing up to 7 years of excess demand
Canada's battered natural gas market is 'about to turn the corner' into a new era of higher prices, according to BMO Capital Markets veteran commodities analyst Randy Ollenberger. He and his peers see new LNG export projects spurring higher prices for Canadian producers for years to come as demand outstrips supply. The first delivery of liquefied natural gas (LNG) produced at the LNG Canada terminal near Kitimat, B.C. left port for a storage and regasification terminal in Incheon, South Korea last week. Prior to this, Canada's only export market has been the United States via pipeline. The Shell PLC-led (SHEL) joint venture provides long-awaited access to higher prices for Canadian gas in Asia. 'Long-suffering Canadian gas companies (and investors) are poised to benefit from several structural changes, including: the start-up of LNG Canada, declining production in several major U.S. basins, and growing demand from AI and data centres,' Ollenberger wrote in a recent note to clients. '[The] Canadian gas market [is] about to turn the corner.' The first phase of LNG Canada will export from two processing units with a total capacity of 14 million tonnes per annum (mtpa). A second phase under consideration would double that. Meanwhile, two additional projects in Canada have reached their final investment decision: Cedar LNG and Woodfibre LNG. A new analysis by Deloitte Canada published on Monday estimates Canada will not fill the demand created by current LNG export projects for four to seven years. 'This likely will mean the strengthening of the AECO benchmark, enabling Canadian producers to achieve more favourable value for their gas,' Deloitte Canada researchers led by energy, resources and industrials partner Andrew Botterill wrote in the report. 'In this period where production is growing to meet demand, natural gas prices should see a narrowing of the differential relative to Henry Hub that lasts for multiple years once exports ramp up from LNG Canada.' Canada is the world's fifth-largest producer of natural gas, and the fourth-largest global exporter. Producers faced tough times in 2024 as prices fell to their lowest levels in more than 40 years. According to Statistics Canada, higher production and storage, coupled with weaker-than-expected winter demand, caused prices to plummet in the second half of the year. Deloitte Canada sees AECO prices averaging $2.20 per million BTUs in 2025, up from $1.39 in 2024. In 2026, the firm says AECO prices are expected to average $3.45, before plateauing at $3.50 until 2032. 'We're bullish on natural gas,' Bay Street fund manager Eric Nuttall wrote in his firm's recently released 2025 mid-year outlook. The partner and senior portfolio manager at Toronto-based Nine Point Partners says 75 per cent of his firm's oil and gas fund has been allocated to natural gas investments since the end of May. 'We expect natural gas prices to strengthen to between $4 and $5 over the coming year, and as Canada increases its LNG capacity, we think the current discount on Canadian natural gas should fall from about $2 today to between $1.10 and $1.30,' Nuttall added. 'This poses a big opportunity for Canadian companies.' LNG has been touted as a 'bridge' or 'transition' fuel to replace coal power in emerging economies. With new export-focused capacity ramping up around the world from the United States to Qatar, observers including the International Energy Agency have raised concerns about a glut of supply hitting the market. While Deloitte Canada estimates four to seven years of excess demand when LNG Canada is fully operational, other analysts have floated shorter timeframes. 'We believe this will significantly impact the current Western Canadian gas balance, and estimate it will take around two years for supply to catch up with demand,' Ollenberger wrote. Last month, TD Cowen analyst Tristan Margot called for the global LNG market to flip to oversupplied conditions after winter 2026. 'Our analysts see the incremental demand for WCSB natural gas from LNG Canada Phase 1 to be largely filled in real time,' he wrote in a June 12 research report. 'This dynamic is likely to result in continued weakness in natural gas prices through year-end,' Margot added. 'This is likely to dampen the optimism that LNG Canada Phase 1 startup is the inflection point to historically weak WCSB gas pricing. However, with producer supply-restraint in 2026+, we see a path to continued basin growth and stronger WCSB natural gas pricing.' Jeff Lagerquist is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow him on X @jefflagerquist. Download the Yahoo Finance app, available for Apple and Android.
Vancouver Sun
08-07-2025
- Business
- Vancouver Sun
Canadian natural gas prices could climb 60% this year as LNG exports ramp up, Deloitte predicts
Canadian natural gas prices are poised to jump nearly 60 per cent this year — marking the end of years-long discounts — as a new export terminal begins shipping to global markets, a new forecast from Deloitte Canada predicts. A tanker carrying the first load of liquefied natural gas from LNG Canada Development Inc.'s terminal set sail last week from the northern coast of British Columbia, giving Canadian producers access to global markets. Two more projects — Cedar LNG and Woodfibre LNG — will add even more shipping capacity by 2028. Stay on top of the latest real estate news and home design trends. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder. The next issue of Westcoast Homes will soon be in your inbox. Please try again Interested in more newsletters? Browse here. The report from Deloitte Canada says the LNG projects will not only create more demand for natural gas companies — they will also likely lead to much higher prices. That's because producers are not drilling fast enough. At the current pace of drilling and investment, the report says it could take four to seven years for Canadian producers to meet demand from LNG export projects already underway. It means natural gas prices in Alberta are likely to stay elevated for the next several years. According to Deloitte, the Alberta benchmark price, known as AECO, is expected to hit an average of $2.20 per million BTUs in the second half of the year, up by close to 62 per cent over 2024 levels. The report expects another big jump next year, with average prices rising to $3.50 per million BTUs. 'The commissioning of the long-awaited LNG Canada export facility has sparked optimism that the era of extremely low Canadian gas prices compared to Henry Hub, may finally end,' the report said, referring to a U.S. benchmark price. Canadian natural gas often trades at a sharp discount to U.S. fuels, given that the Canadian product must travel long distances to reach American markets. Access to LNG shipping terminals should narrow the discount. But the good times may not last. 'If similar levels of activity and associated production are maintained over the next five years, all added demand from LNG exports would be met and it could be argued prices could return to current levels,' the report said. In oil markets, Deloitte expects North American prices will improve in the final half of the year, averaging US$72 per barrel, before slipping to just over US$67 next year. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies — a group known as OPEC+ — have recently reversed a decision to cut production, adding 411,000 barrels to global supplies in each of May, June and July. Eight members of the alliance said over the weekend they expect to add another 548,000 barrels in August, a stunning increase as they seek to capture an even greater share of the market.
Edmonton Journal
07-07-2025
- Business
- Edmonton Journal
Silver lining: Alberta natural gas — and budget — get boost with historic LNG ocean shipment
Article content Chilled to a liquid state, a cargo of natural gas started a historic voyage on Canada Day, setting off a good chain reaction on Alberta's natural gas industry. Article content Westbound over the Pacific for China, the shipment from LNG Canada bound for global markets was good news for the Alberta economy, said Andrew Botterill, Energy, Resources & Industrials Partner at Deloitte Canada. Article content Article content While the LNG on the boat originated in BC via the Coastal Gas Link, when it comes to LNG pricing, all boats rise with the tide, Botterill told Postmedia in an embargoed interview Thursday. Article content Article content When Alberta's — and Canada's — LNG was restricted to North American markets, it was at the mercy of American demand, resulting in an unfavourable price differential between American and Canadian LNG. Article content Article content With one westbound boatload, that has changed. Article content 'The gas market is nice, just to see that extra business, that extra opportunity for Canadian gas volumes to hit the West Coast,' he said. 'The business case has proved out to be this is good for Canada and this is good for all companies. Article content 'We're now doing it for real … It shows that the business is there, it's happening.' Article content It will take time for the facility to be up and running full steam, but the rest of 2025 and 2026 are expected to bear that business case out: that natural gas can be chilled to a liquid state, put on a boat, and exported by sea. Article content Article content 'All in all, the entire natural gas industry, for Alberta and B.C., the gas market is going to see the opportunity of LNG take real shape in the next 18 months,' Botterill said. Article content Article content Between now and 2032, the Deloitte & Touche report projects a steady increase in natural gas production growth. Article content An increased demand for natural gas could result in price hikes for Alberta and British Columbia LNG — and more markets, more volumes, means a smaller differential with U.S. prices. Article content 'This is meaningful for Canada. Us being able to put natural gas in another direction, not just to the U.S., is going to narrow some of that natural gas differential,' he said.
CTV News
26-06-2025
- Business
- CTV News
Province announces $2.8M to help entrepreneurs grow businesses as trade war causes uncertainty
Canadian businesses continue to negotiate the uncertainty of the trade war with the U.S. It's caused a slowing of the economy and it's impacting entrepreneurs. The province has announced $2.8 million in funding toward the Calgary Economic Development's (CED) Trade Accelerator Program (TAP). The initiative helps small to medium-sized businesses grow and reach international markets. The funding will continue TAP for another five years, with the hope it helps up to 650 companies. 'The future of Alberta is bright. We have a premier and government that are laser-focused on removing red tape and expanding trade relationships within Canada and around the world,' said Joseph Schow, Minister of Jobs, Economy, Trade and Immigration. The announcement came as Deloitte Canada released its latest outlook, saying the economy should be able to avoid 'worst-case' scenarios from the trade war. That doesn't mean the Canadian economy gets off scot-free. Deloitte predicts a modest recession to hit in the second and third quarters of the year as uncertainty and weakness caused by tariffs start to bite. The province has announced $2.8 million in funding toward the Calgary Economic Development's Trade Accelerator Program. The province has announced $2.8 million in funding toward the Calgary Economic Development's Trade Accelerator Program. That uncertainty is worrisome for Calgary puzzle-maker and StumpCraft founder Jasen Robillard. 'We've been dealing with the chaos as a result of the tariffs,' said Robillard. 'We're a luxury product in a sense, and so when disposable income decreases or economic uncertainty manifests, people are more clingy with their hard-earned dollars.' The Deloitte report suggests energy-producing provinces like Alberta will lead the economic growth expected next year. With files from The Canadian Press
