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AllAfrica
7 days ago
- Politics
- AllAfrica
China badmouths French Rafale to rewire Indo-Pacific arms deals
China has launched a digital dogfight against France, using disinformation and diplomatic pressure to undermine Rafale fighter jet sales and promote Chinese alternatives across the Indo-Pacific. This month, the Associated Press (AP) reported that French intelligence officials have accused China of orchestrating a targeted disinformation campaign aimed at harming the reputation and sales of Dassault Aviation's Rafale fighter jet, particularly after its deployment in the India-Pakistan conflict in May. The supposed initiative, led by Chinese defense attachés through foreign embassies, involved lobbying countries such as Indonesia to reconsider their procurement plans and choose Chinese-made alternatives. Online activity surged during the four-day conflict, with over 1,000 new accounts disseminating manipulated imagery, AI-generated content, and simulated combat depictions to portray Rafales as underperforming. French Air Force General Jérôme Bellanger confirmed that India lost three aircraft: one Rafale, one Sukhoi, and one Mirage 2000. He also dismissed the claims of five Rafale shootdowns as disinformation. The first known Rafale combat loss has prompted global scrutiny among client states. France's Defense Ministry described the campaign as an attack not only on a weapons platform but also on its strategic industrial reputation. With 323 jets exported, including 42 ordered by Indonesia, the Rafale remains central to France's Indo-Pacific outreach. China's defense ministry rejected the allegations as 'groundless rumors.' Observers believe China aims to weaken Western defense ties in Asia. AP reviewed intelligence shared on condition of anonymity. Explaining China's possible disinformation strategy, Dexter Roberts, in a December 2020 Atlantic Council report, outlined how Beijing employs disinformation as a strategic instrument to shape global narratives, undermine the credibility of rival powers, and enhance its 'discourse power' in critical domains like defense. He explained that China utilizes state-controlled media, social platforms and covert actors to amplify propaganda and discredit adversaries' political systems, social cohesion and technological capabilities. These efforts, he noted, are aimed at advancing China's governance model and curbing Western influence in sensitive arenas by seeding doubt, stoking local grievances and exerting reputational and economic pressure on decision-makers While China aspires to become a top-tier fighter jet exporter, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) notes that it has had only modest success, with just 57 combat aircraft on order or preselected for delivery after 2024 – far behind the US (996), France (214), and South Korea (140). Explaining these weak sales, Richard Aboulafia argued in a February 2023 Citadel article that China's assertive foreign policy significantly undermines its arms export prospects. He noted that countries like India and Vietnam, which have territorial disputes with China, are ruled out as potential buyers, while others like Malaysia and Indonesia remain wary of Beijing's regional ambitions. These concerns are reinforced by the nature of modern fighter jets, which demand constant technical, logistical, and maintenance support from their manufacturers to stay operational, creating long-term dependencies that can serve as levers of influence. Such dependencies run counter to Indonesia's longstanding commitment to non-alignment and strategic autonomy. Ron Matthews and others argue in a July 2025 article in the peer-reviewed Asian Security journal that Indonesia's defense acquisition strategy reflects its 'free and active' foreign policy by deliberately diversifying suppliers across the US, Russia, China, South Korea and European countries to avoid being beholden to any single actor. They emphasize that this approach is not just about building capability – it's a geopolitical maneuver that allows Jakarta to retain sovereignty over defense choices while navigating a multipolar Indo-Pacific without being pulled into great-power rivalries. That calculus appears to be playing out in real time. While Reuters reported in June 2024 that China had offered J-10 jets, frigates, and other equipment to Indonesia, Defense Security Asia noted this month that Indonesia seeks to acquire 24 more Rafale jets, bringing its total order to 66. If finalized, this deal would replace Jakarta's aging fleet of US F-16s and Russian Su-27s and make Indonesia the largest non-European Rafale operator. Indonesia's desire to maintain strategic autonomy may align well with France's Indo-Pacific strategy. Eric Frecon, in a February 2022 article for the ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute, said France's approach revitalizes 'Gaullo-Mitterrandism' – a diplomatic strategy that emphasizes French interests and values within a multilateral setting. Frecon argues that France's outreach to Indo-Pacific middle powers like Indonesia allows it to sidestep the binary China-US framing and support a more multipolar world order. Coline Laroche echoes this in a May 2025 piece for the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS), stating that France aims to act as a 'balancing power' promoting multilateralism, grounded in its national interests and permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Laroche notes that France seeks to offer a 'third voice' amid escalating tensions between China's assertiveness and US pressure. While India and France are in damage control mode and Indonesia's Rafale deal appears stable despite the disinformation blitz, questions remain about how other Indo-Pacific nations will respond to Beijing's push. A May 2025 article from The China Academy claims that the J-10 is gaining traction among countries seeking cost-effective alternatives to Western jets. It identifies Bangladesh as a potential buyer, citing national defense needs driven by India-centric concerns. It also names Thailand, which has a history of balanced procurement and non-confrontational diplomacy, and Myanmar, long reliant on Chinese systems and now seeking upgrades. Still, skepticism persists. Rahman Yaacob writes in a January 2025 article for the Lowy Institute that Southeast Asian states increasingly prefer supplier diversity. He cites Russia's declining role, the high political costs of US equipment, and quality issues with Chinese gear as reasons for the shift. Yaacob contends that this dynamic is opening up opportunities for new players – France, Germany, and South Korea – to gain ground in a region that values flexibility over alignment. As China ramps up its digital warfare tactics to corner Indo-Pacific arms markets, the real battle may not be over airframes but over influence, and whether buyers trust what they see, or what they're being shown.
Bloomberg
10-06-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Trump Says China ‘Not Easy' Amid Trade Talks
Trade talks between the US and China will continue into a second day, according to a US official, as the two sides look to ease tensions over shipments of technology and rare earth elements. Dexter 'Tiff' Roberts, Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub and author of 'Trade War' a weekly newsletter on China's economy, examines which side has the advantage in these crucial discussions. Dexter with Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec on Bloomberg Businessweek Daily. (Source: Bloomberg)
Yahoo
12-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
After the U.S. and China pause tariffs, rare mineral exports are now in the spotlight for future trade deals
The U.S. wants to maintain access to China's rare earth minerals. While China see its dominance of the market as a way to apply major pressure on the U.S. as the two negotiate a broader trade deal. The U.S. and China reached a détente on what had been an escalating trade war. On Sunday, at the end of this weekend's trade summit in Geneva, both sides agreed to pause the tariffs they had placed on one another. The U.S.'s tariffs on Chinese imports will be 30%, down from 145%, while China lowered its tariffs on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%, according to a joint statement. The agreement foreshadows the possibility of a future, much broader trade deal in the future. Both sides said there was a 'mechanism' in place for them to facilitate more talks. One of the key questions still left to address is China's export controls on its rare-earth minerals. China's outsize role in the global rare-earths market, and the U.S.'s desire to maintain a steady flow of the minerals, make the issue one of the most sensitive parts of the deal. As the leading exporter of rare-earth minerals, China holds massive influence in the global market for these critical materials. 'Dominating this sector is probably one of their most important sources of leverage over the U.S. and over the world,' said Dexter Roberts, nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, a think tank based in Washington, D.C. For that reason, China will be unlikely to relent on its export controls. 'Now that they punished the U.S. with rare earth [export controls], they're not going to take away this economic part of their economic arsenal,' Roberts said. Many of those minerals are key ingredients in advanced manufacturing of products like electric-vehicle batteries, smartphones, and for military applications such as missiles and radar systems. The fact that rare-earth minerals are used in the defense technologies means the exports have national-security implications for both countries, only adding to the complexity and urgency of finding a solution that suits both sides. After the White House announced its global tariff policy on April 2, China ratcheted up its export controls on rare earths as retaliation. Included in those new policies was a requirement that foreign countries would have to apply for licenses to purchase rare-earth minerals. While it does have a tense relationship with the U.S. at the moment, China does not want to close it off entirely from the rare-earth minerals market, according to Jeorg Wuttke, partner at the advisory firm DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group and an expert in Chinese trade. 'The Chinese don't want to cut off the U.S., but they want to threaten it,' he said. Rare earths represent big business for Chinese firms. In 2024, its total exports of rare-earth minerals rose 6% to 55,431 metric tons, according to Reuters. Though, because they are commodities with fluctuating prices, the value of those exports fell 36% to $488 million. During the height of the U.S.-China trade dispute last month, production came to a virtual standstill. The trade war both hit China's rare-earth industry on two fronts, making it both more expensive for foreign buyers and requiring them to get government approval for any purchases they did make. Despite the mounting frustrations between the two countries, China is wary of giving off the appearance of politicizing its rare-earths business because doing so could put off the rest of the world from doing business with it, Wuttke said. 'The Chinese are very aware of the fact they want to come across as reliable supplies to American companies,' Wuttke said. 'As much as they dislike American policies, they still want to be engaged with U.S. companies.' Part of China's additional export controls included a policy that required companies to apply for a license to purchase rare-earth minerals. One of the first companies to apply for such a license was Tesla, which uses them to make batteries for its cars, among other things. There are some indications that as relations thaw, U.S. companies will receive expedited approvals during the process, according to Reuters. Others, however, see China as being unbothered about applying significant pressure to the U.S. over rare earths. 'I don't think China's really worried that if they play too much hardball, they're suddenly no longer going to be relevant in the rare-earth market,' said Dexter Roberts. 'I don't believe that.' The U.S. has begun looking for other sources of rare-earth minerals—namely in Greenland and Ukraine. The U.S. does also have its own deposits of rare-earth minerals, but they are not mined to the extent they are in China. Mining these elements is expensive and bad for the environment, making it difficult work to undertake. Any effort by the U.S. to diversify its supply chains away from China would be considered a medium- or long-term goal. Agreements over minerals with allies would also take years to negotiate and then implement. And the construction of any new entirely new mines takes, on average, 18 years for them to become operational, according to S&P Global. That means the most likely outcome is further reconciliation—however uneasy—with China. Experts said a deal with China over rare earths could be on the horizon. 'They could announce something on rare earths in the coming days,' Roberts said. 'I wouldn't be surprised.' This story was originally featured on
South China Morning Post
25-04-2025
- Business
- South China Morning Post
‘It's everything': 5-year-high pork cancellation signals China weaning off US farm goods
After cancelling record orders of US pork amid a raging trade war, China is ready to further cut back on US agricultural imports, analysts said. Advertisement Last week, Chinese importers withdrew orders for 12,030 metric tonnes of American pork – the largest cancellation since May 2020, early in the Covid-19 pandemic – according to US Department of Agriculture figures. Analysts expect American pig farmers to feel the pinch, despite most not relying exclusively on the Chinese market, and producers of other agricultural goods to share a bigger burden in the trade war. 'This is a targeted response from China to hurt parts of the [US] that are red,' said Dexter Roberts, a US-based senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank's Global China Hub. Most American farm states are considered Republican-leaning, and voted for US President Donald Trump in last November's election. Advertisement 'People are very aware of this and very worried,' Roberts said. 'One bad year and you might be mortgaging the farm.'
